This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC 300 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 300 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Deiveson Figueiredo (22-3-1) v. Cody Garbrandt (14-5-0)
Deiveson Figueiredo - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 22 wins
Cody Garbrandt - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: This is an excellent way to kick off UFC 300. Unfortunately for Garbrandt, Figueiredo is a far better all-around fighter. Garbrandt has power and could find a knockout like he did in his most recent fight, but it is unlikely. Figueiredo should put on a dominant display against the former champ and is one of my favorite plays for DFS.
UFC 300 Pick: Figueiredo
Bobby Green (31-15-1) v. Jim Miller (37-17-0)
Bobby Green - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 31 wins
Jim Miller - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 27 finishes in 37 wins
DFS Perspective: Having fought at both UFC 100 and 200, Miller got his wish to fight at UFC 300. He did win both of those fights, so he has that going for him. However, I do not see him winning this fight unless he can get Green into a compromised position. Green is faster and more active with better striking and should be able to avoid any submission attempts Miller throws up. I do not see this fight scoring high for DFS without a finish.
UFC 300 Pick: Green
Jessica Andrade (25-12-0) v. Marina Rodriguez (14-0-0)
Jessica Andrade - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 62" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 25 wins
Marina Rodriguez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: After looking sluggish in a couple of their past fights, these ladies looked rejuvenated in their most recent wins. Rodriguez will have the edge on the feet with her range, but it is likely her only edge. Andrade has much more power and a far better ground game that I expect her to utilize. Andrade should win and score well for DFS.
UFC 300 Pick: Andrade
Jalin Turner (14-7-0) v. Renato Moicano (18-5-1)
Jalin Turner - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
Renato Moicano - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Moicano's best weapons are his ground game and ability to find submissions. He will struggle to enact his game plan against the much taller Turner. Turner, who also has a solid ground game, is the far better striker and should have no issue keeping this at range. However, this fight will likely score poorly without a finish, as I expect some of their grappling to cancel out.
UFC 300 Pick: Turner
Sodiq Yusuff (13-3-0) v. Diego Lopes (23-6-0)
Sodiq Yusuff - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 13 wins
Diego Lopes - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: These two are pretty similar on the feet ini terms of power, but Yusuff throws more volume. The biggest difference in this fight will be in Lopes's ground game, where he holds a tremendous advantage. I expect Lopes to get it there early and often, providing a statement win and a solid score for DFS.
UFC 300 Pick: Lopes
Holly Holm (15-6-0) v. Kayla Harrison (16-1-0)
Holly Holm - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 15 wins
Kayla Harrison - Height: 5'8" - Reach: N/A – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Harrison "should" dominate the fight in its entirety. She is a Judo world champ with several other credentials, including the former champ in the PFL promotion. At 43, Holm's game is pretty predictable. She keeps the fight at range or against the cage in the clinch, and I do not see her being able to hold Harrison on the cage for long periods. Look for the UFC newcomer to come out on top.
UFC 300 Pick: Harrison
Calvin Kattar (23-7-0) v. Aljamain Sterling (23-4-0)
Calvin Kattar - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 23 wins
Aljamain Sterling - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: It has been quite a while since Kattar has fought a grappler on the level of Sterling, and it likely will not end well for him. Given his striking pedigree, he will have a considerable chance to record an upset if he can defend the takedowns. However, I expect Sterling to eventually find his way to the mat and give a second consecutive early loss.
UFC 300 Pick: Sterling
Jiri Prochazka (29-4-1) v. Aleksandar Rakic (14-3-0)
Jiri Prochazka - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 28 finishes in 29 wins
Aleksandar Rakic - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 88" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: The odds should be flipped for this fight. I am unsure why Rakic is the favorite, but he shouldn't be. His only path to winning is by knockout, as he does not throw a lot of volume and has little ground game. Prochazka is the better fighter and more likely to finish this fight. Prochazka is an excellent play for all contests.
UFC 300 Pick: Prochazka
Bo Nickal (5-0-0) v. Cody Brundage (10-5-0)
Bo Nickal - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 5 wins
Cody Brundage - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Why is Brundage getting this fight? Nickal by way of complete and utter domination.
UFC 300 Pick: Nickal
Charles Oliveira (34-9-0) v. Arman Tsarukyan (21-3-0)
Charles Oliveira - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 31 finishes in 34 wins
Arman Tsarukyan - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another fight where the odds should probably be flipped. Oliveira has fought the best of the best in the division and was the champ for a time. This will be Tsarukyan's toughest fight to date, and while he can win, I am not sure he does. It will be close nearly the entire fight, but I expect Oliveira to pull this one out.
UFC 300 Pick: Oliveira
Justin Gaethje (25-4-0) v. Max Holloway (25-7-0)
Justin Gaethje - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 25 wins
Max Holloway - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: This will likely be the best fight on the card and an absolute banger. I fully expect both guys to give it everywhere. There will be blood. There will be damage. There will be everything. Gaethje has the power edge, but I will ride with Holloway and his volume to get this one done. Target both for GPP contests as the winner should make the optimal.
UFC 300 Pick: Holloway
Weili Zhang (24-3-0) v. Xiaonan Yan (17-3-0)
Zhang Weili - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 63" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 24 wins
Yan Xiaonan - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: I am not sure anyone could challenge and beat this version of Weili. She is arguably the best current female fighter in the world and should have no problem defending her belt in this one.
UFC 300 Pick: Zhang
Alex Pereira (9-2-0) v. Jamahal Hill (12-1-0)
Alex Pereira - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Jamahal Hill - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another fight that should feature a lot of back-and-forth striking. Both guys are loaded with power and volume, making this a solid fight to target for all contests. Hill has not faced a powered sniper like Pereira and will likely have issues finding success, but he has the power to end this at any time. However, I expect Pereira to defend his belt by early knockout.
UFC 300 Pick: Pereira
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
