East Coast Offense: Manziel of the Year Award

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Next Year's Rankings

I won't spend time here discussing my Week 16 fate - the miserable details can be found in the blog.

Instead, let's take a look at the top of the 2016 draft board:

Quarterback is deep as usual - if you punted completely and got stuck with Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick and/or Marcus Mariota, you'd probably do just fine. Also, you could put No. 11 Carson Palmer or No. 12 Andy Dalton four or five spots higher, and I wouldn't argue. I probably have Eli Manning higher than most because he'll benefit when Tom Coughlin is likely fired, and Odell Beckham can turn anyone into a star, especially if the Giants target him more heavily.

Notable omissions: Brock Osweiler, Matthew Stafford, Teddy Bridgewater, Jay Cutler and Johnny Manziel.

After the top-five, RB is a crap shoot, and Peterson will be 31 and Bell is coming off a torn ACL. I have no idea whether veterans like Matt Forte or Marshawn Lynch will have prominent roles. Dion Lewis is a journeyman who had a great half-season before tearing his ACL. C.J. Anderson, Eddie Lacy, Lamar Miller, Javorius Allen, DeMarco Murray and Jeremy Langford might or might not have starting jobs.

Notable omissions: Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Latavius Murray. Jay Ajayi, Jeremy Hill, Gio Bernard, Arian Foster, Ameer Abdullah, Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell and Melvin Gordon.

Like quarterback, wide receiver is incredibly deep, but it's even more loaded with stars at the top. The top-six wideouts are all monsters in their prime, and as of Week 17, have a clean bill of health. I had some trouble deciding what to do with Marshall (turns 32 in March) and Dez Bryant (should be healthy, but can Tony Romo hold up for a full season?) Demaryius Thomas, Mike Evans and maybe even Calvin Johnson all have top-five upside, but are coming off bad seasons. Finally, I threw Josh Gordon in at No. 18 - possibly a reach given the layoff - but don't forget he was the league's best receiver in 2013, and he won't turn 25 until April.

Notable omissions: Jeremy Maclin, T.Y. Hilton, Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, Julian Edelman, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Doug Baldwin, Allen Hurns, Kelvin Benjamin, Devante Parker, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett and John Brown.

Tight end is surprisingly shallow. There's a clear top-six, and after that you're gambling on a bounce-back from Jimmy Graham off a torn patellar tendon, Julius Thomas staying healthy as third-fiddle in the passing game or Ladarius Green, Seferian-Jenkins or Ertz taking the next step.

Notable Omissions: Antonio Gates

Grading My Predictions

Every year before Week 1, I make a bunch of "non-obvious" predictions. Let's see how I did:

1. The Colts will win the Super Bowl this year. They've made the incremental steps each season Andrew Luck has been in the league, and the timing is right. Don't ask me how their defense will stop anyone - defenses vary greatly from year to year, and having a great offense will keep them off the field and put them in hitter's counts.

Wrong. Andrew Luck was playing through broken ribs before missing the last half of the year, but there's no indication even a healthy Luck would have made Indy anything but a No. 4 seed and big underdog heading into the playoffs. 0-1

2. Until/unless he gets injured Peyton Manning will be no worse than the third best fantasy quarterback. Manning was right there with Luck and Rodgers for the first two thirds of last year before he fell apart down the stretch. It's hard to believe an immobile passer who gets rid of the ball in two seconds got old between Weeks 11 and 12. It's more likely he got hurt, and no one said anything about it (Consider how John Fox explains his handling of Alshon Jeffery's injury this preseason, and it's likely if Manning were hurt, the team would have said as little as possible.

Wrong. Manning played hurt, but he was so awful, and his defense so good it's unlikely he would have been top-three even if he were the player of early 2014. (There's no extra penalty for extreme degrees of wrong, in case you're wondering.) 0-2

3. Speaking of Jeffery if he is healthy for Week 1 (and stays that way), he'll be top-five in the NFL in targets and touchdowns. If he's not healthy, this prediction is void.

Push. Jeffery was productive when healthy, but he was playing hurt most of the year and missed six games. 0-2-1

4. Amari Cooper will see a ton of targets, but he'll fail to score seven TDs or crack 1,100 yards.

Undetermined. Cooper has 125 targets, 1,050 yards and six TDs through 15 games. He needs 50 yards and a score in Week 17 against the Chiefs to prove me wrong. 0-2-2

5. Ryan Mathews and DeMarco Murray will both rush for 1,000 yards.

Wrong. Mathews has 528 yards (in 12 games) and Murray has 633 in 14. Even prorated over a full season, they wouldn't be close. 0-3-2

6. Arian Foster will be a top-five back during the games he starts and finishes.

Technically wrong, but essentially right. Foster was sixth in fantasy points per game, but third in PPR points per game. Moreover, if you take away the Atlanta game (his first one back where he had only eight carries, and you probably didn't use him), he was No. 1 in both formats, albeit in only three games. Because he didn't finish his last game, I should be using only three games to calculate this, but he got hurt in the fourth quarter, so it makes sense to count it even though the predictions said: "starts and finishes." So I'm giving myself a "right" here, in part because I need one. 1-3-2

7. Blake Bortles and Derek Carr will not emerge by season's end as franchise quarterbacks, i.e., both will be shaky, and their organizations will have to figure out what to do in Year 3.

Wrong. Both made major improvements and are the clear starters for their teams in 2016 and beyond. (Remember, no deduction for degrees of wrong.) 1-4-2

8. The player who takes the most quarterback snaps for the Browns this year is not currently on their roster.

Wrong. Josh McCown was on the Browns roster. 1-5-2

9. No Cowboys running back will crack 1,000 yards. If one does, it'll be Christine Michael or someone not currently rostered.

Wrong, barring a disaster. Darren McFadden has 997 yards with one game to go. 1-6-2.

10. Joique Bell will outproduce Ameer Abdullah in standard leagues.

Barely wrong. Abdullah outproduced him, though not by much, and Bell was slightly better on a per-game basis. Still, just as there's no extra penalty for extreme wrongs, there's no forgiveness for minor ones. 1-7-2

11. One of the Falcons running backs will have 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns.

Right, assuming Devonta Freeman can get 20 yards against the Saints. No bonus for extreme right, either. 2-7-2

12. Ronnie Hillman will be a top-24 PPR back.

Wrong. Hillman checks in at No. 29 through 16 weeks, and with C.J. Anderson playing well again, is unlikely to jump to 24. Hillman was oddly 23rd in non-PPR. (Incidentally, while looking this up, I discovered Danny Woodhead was fourth(!) in PPR.) 2-8-2

13. At least one among the Jets, Bears, Bucccaneers, Rams, 49ers, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders and Redskins will make the playoffs. (If you remove the Jets and Rams, I probably don't take that prop.)

Correct! The Redskins are in, and the Jets will make it, should they beat the Bills. 3-8-2

14. Ben Roethlisberger has a decent year, but does not finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback.

Correct, but only because he got hurt. Roethlisberger was 22nd through 16 weeks, but 10th in fantasy points per game. Of course, he got hurt early in one game, so that also hurts his average. 4-8-2

15. Martellus Bennett has a better fantasy season than Jimmy Graham.

Wrong. I thought it would be right, but I looked it up, and Graham (No. 12) outproduced Bennett (No. 17), and both played 11 games. 4-9-2

16. Vernon Davis is a top-10 tight end.

Wrong. 4-10-2

17. Andre Johnson will not finish as a top-30 receiver.

Correct. 5-10-2

18. Colin Kaepernick will either be a top-10 fantasy quarterback, get hurt or lose the job. He will not play 14-plus games and not be top-10 on a per-game basis.

Correct, but it'll count as a push. My point was if he keeps the job, he can't but produce because of his running, and if he's so bad that he can't produce, then he'll lose the job, which he did. But that was too hedgy of a prediction in retrospect, so it's a push. 5-10-3

19. Devin Funchess will approximate 2014 Kelvin Benjamin's production this year.

Wrong. 5-11-3

20. Some of these predictions are wrong.

Correct! 6-11-3

All told, I did about the same as last year when I went 7-13. Of course, I always start out 1-0 with prediction No. 20.

Week 16 Observations

•Brock Osweiler bought time and made some big throws against a tough defense last night in a game likely to determine which team gets the bye week. His own defense limits his fantasy upside somewhat, but Osweiler looks like a guy with a future.

• Forget the "Man of the Year" award, the NFL should have a "Manziel of the Year" award for the player who parties the hardest.

• Speaking of which, Manziel was apparently out partying again last week. He's even rapping and appears to have an alcoholic beverage in his hand! This is "unfortunate" and "an issue" according to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com because (1) his high school coach says so; and (2) he spent time in rehab last winter. While spending time in rehab might mean you have an addiction in which case it's better for you to avoid alcohol, it does not make it illegal to for you to drink or curtail your rights as a private citizen in your spare time. Should Manziel's use of alcohol result in him breaking the law, or impair his ability to play well, then the league and team have a legitimate reason to intervene or bench him. Otherwise, please spare us the manufactured outrage over nothing.

• We might never know whether the allegations Peyton Manning used HGH, sent to his wife, are true, but so many of the athletes the media casts as admirable turn out to be frauds. George Carlin put it best. (NSFW)

• If the NFL wanted to punish Odell Beckham, they should have just fined him. Putting the Giants on Sunday night without him only punishes a nation of football fans and gives Beckham even more leverage over the organization he carries on his back.

•Johnny Manziel's passing numbers were terrible the last two weeks, but he was in Seattle and in Kansas City, and he also rushed for 108 yards today. If he's still the Browns' quarterback next year, he'll be interesting with Josh Gordon coming back.

• Be wary of stars in division-rival rematches as the unders in those games come in roughly 55 percent of the time (h/t Scott Pianowski.) Four examples from Sunday: the Steelers, Seahawks, Patriots and Panthers. This week, all 16 games are division-rival rematches, so you might want to load up on under bets.

• The Packers might win a first-round playoff game at home (assuming they even beat the Vikings next week), but forget about them beating anyone good in Round 2.

• No quarterback is a better or more reliable play than Drew Brees at home. He's like Peyton Manning on steroids.

• Give credit to John Harbaugh both for likely keeping the Steelers out of the playoffs and also going back to Buck Allen after benching him last week for fumbling. Contrast that with Bruce Arians' handling of David Johnson who only got a chance after both Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington got hurt.

• The Panthers lost their undefeated season because the Falcons got pressure on Cam Newton and totally shut him down (4.7 YPA.) The loss could take off some of the pressure, and a re-match division game on the road was a bad set-up, but the Panthers will likely have to face the Cardinals and/or Seahawks defenses in the playoffs.

• The Patriots elected to kick off in overtime, and it turned out to be a mistake, as the Jets scored a touchdown on their first possession. The advantage in going first is a TD wins it. The advantage in going second is you know your situation and whether to use all four downs. Somecalculations give the receiving team roughly a 56/44 advantage, but that doesn't account for wind conditions, personnel, game-flow, etc. It's possible the Patriots had a good reason to kick given these unaccounted for factors, but there's also this:

Belichick has achieved the level of "genius" status whereby when his team does something obviously stupid, people guess 3rd level thinking.

— Craig Elsten (@619sports) December 27, 2015

•Brandon Marshall is the wide receiver version of Gronkowski. He's too big for opposing DBs to cover and knows how to use his size and strength to box defenders out. Marshall also became the first receiver in NFL history with six seasons of 100 catches or more.

•Julio Jones had a monster game, though I don't know how many plays Josh Norman shadowed him. Either way, it's mind boggling the Falcons didn't take more shots with him down the field before Week 16.