Matchup Edge: Track Meet in D.C.

Ravens and Jaguars in London

Open: 40.5 O/U, BAL -3
Press time: 39.5 O/U, BAL -3.5

Two good defenses, two bad quarterbacks, and a travel scenario that could encourage a number of wacky outcomes otherwise. It would be an oversimplification to depict this game as a question of Leonard Fournette vs. Javorius Allen, but it's hard to see what offense might be in this game other than those two players.

It only took a few snaps in Week 1 for me to figure Fournette for great rather than good, and this game will be his second tough test in a row. It's a much easier test than it could have been, however, because dominant Baltimore tackle Brandon Williams (foot) is out. Given that Joe Flacco is unlikely to engineer a lead that would force Jacksonville to abandon the run, as Marcus Mariota (and Derrick Henry) did when Fournette finished last week with 14 carries, I think there's reason to lock in Fournette for 20 carries in this one.

Blake Bortles probably doesn't process information as well as DeShone Kizer, and the Ravens pass defense utterly confused the latter last week. The Jacksonville passing game is a complete no-go for me.

Henry landed a few big punches on the Jaguars last week, finishing with 92 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries, but Allen is no Henry. Meanwhile, Allen isn't frightening as a pass catcher when you have the speedy duo of Telvin Smith and Myles Jack trailing him. Allen still has at least flex utility in PPR formats and otherwise might have a good shot at a touchdown if Baltimore can create turnovers, assuming Terrance West (thigh) sits out.

While I'd rather have Joe Flacco than Bortles in this one, the Baltimore passing game is also a non-consideration for me. Flacco's dependence on short passes and bootleg playaction is going to result in tipped play calls sooner or later if he can't get the ball downfield, and Jacksonville's defense has enough speed to make the Ravens pay if it happens here.

Buffalo vs. Denver

Open: 41 O/U, DEN -1
Press time: 40 O/U, DEN -3

Buffalo's run defense has looked good through two games, and the stat sheet will tell you its pass defense has been very good, too. I'm buying the first and laughing at the second – this Bills defense has no talent in its secondary, where its personnel is defined by shortness and slowness. These guys can't cover Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. I wouldn't use Trevor Siemian here – the Bills pass rush might make him a bit skittish – but at least one of Thomas or Sanders is going to create separation in this game. I'm betting on Thomas, because the Bills were completely overmatched by big wideouts Devin Funchess and Kelvin Benjamin last week.

As much as the matchup might look like a tough one for C.J. Anderson, I think you're locking him into most season-long lineups, at least as a flex play. Denver has the cornerback personnel to sell out against LeSean McCoy in run defense, and be it by short fields or turnovers the Broncos should end up in position to score on the ground at least once.

As far as McCoy goes, you probably need him in your lineup in season-long formats, if only because of the threat he poses as a receiver. Even if he's held under 50 yards on the ground, he's always a good bet to post 100 or more yards from scrimmage. Last week's matchup with Carolina was worse than this one, for whatever solace that might be.

Carolina vs. New Orleans

Open: 49 O/U, CAR -6
Press time: 46.5 O/U, CAR -5.5

Cam Newton has started slowly and now he gets a matchup with a sinking Saints team that might be without top corner Marshon Lattimore (concussion). Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess are almost certain to get open in this one. But Newton's arm strength wasn't back as of a week ago, with Newton needing big windups just to hit relatively routine intermediate crossing routes. I think Newton is a good play in season-long leagues and I might fire up a few GPP lineups with him in DFS, but I'm not taking it for a given that he'll be able to fully capitalize.

Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey plainly project well in this one, on the other hand. Drew Brees is on the road against a Carolina defense that appears to have returned to its 2015 form, meaning the Saints shouldn't build any leads so big that Carolina has to abandon the run. While I'm skeptical of Newton's ability to get the most out of Benjamin and Funchess, I love the chances of McCaffrey getting loose after the catch on shorter routes. I'll be using a lot of McCaffrey in DFS.

You're likely starting Brees in season-long formats and there's some sort of GPP logic to him in DFS, but I'm somewhat pessimistic about this Saints offense. They weren't effective while the home game against New England was competitive, and even if it was just a one-game blip, the Patriots made Alex Smith look like Aaron Rodgers in Week 1. On the road against a strong Carolina front seven and with Michael Thomas the only solid pass-catching option, Brees has disappointed in settings much more favorable than this.

I do like Thomas' chances of finding the end zone for the first time this year, though. The Carolina corners have some talent, but they're young and Thomas is a very good player with a good bet to see 10 or more targets. Sometimes talent just wins on its own, and the Saints otherwise have no viable usage avenues. If Coby Fleener sees much Luke Kuechly in coverage, that's probably going nowhere, and Ted Ginn is hit-or-miss (revenge game narrative, though.) I'm not buying the upside of Brandon Coleman now that the defense will be looking for him.

The Saints backfield is a disaster I want nothing to do with. If they cut or at least start scratching Adrian Peterson that should change things – there's probably enough room for Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to both prove useful, but three is too many.

Chicago vs. Pittsburgh

Open: 46 O/U, PIT -7.5
Press time: 44 O/U, PIT -7

Le'Veon Bell almost has to find the end zone in this one. Be it conditioning or somewhat lacking rhythm following his holdout, the usual tape hasn't been there for Bell so far, but short fields should get him to paydirt here – not to say that he can't break loose in general in this setting. I would mostly expect his winnings to be hard-fought, though, since the Bears have crashed the run well this year and generally benefit from good defensive coaching.

Ben Roethlisberger has also looked off through two starts, and conventional thinking would say that might continue to some extent as he heads into this road matchup. No one can cover Antonio Brown and few can cover Martavis Bryant, but Roethlisberger will need to be sharp against a Bears defense that swarmed Jameis Winston pretty well last week.

Playing as a big underdog with a nicked-up shoulder in an offense with no passing game, this matchup is yet another bad one for Jordan Howard. I still fully believe in his talent, but surrounding circumstances have nearly wasted his season before we're a month in. I don't think he's a must-start in season-long formats, and I see no DFS utility here. Tarik Cohen should get peppered with targets again and is flex-viable in PPR formats, but he'll have to pull out some of his best tricks yet to get away from Ryan Shazier.

Mike Glennon is terrible and it'd take him getting benched before I'd have any curiosity about the Bears wideouts or tight ends.

Detroit vs. Atlanta

Open: 49 O/U, ATL -3
Press time: 50.5 O/U, ATL -3

Matthew Stafford has done a nice job in the first two weeks, but here comes his biggest test yet. He faced two tough defenses to start the year, but this matchup is the first where there will be substantial pressure to score early and often against a Falcons offense that probably won't be stopped. Still, he should post a nice fantasy output even if he can't get his third straight win.

If the Falcons run their defense like they did against Green Bay, Desmond Trufant might spend most of his time on the left side of the defense, where he might primarily catch Marvin Jones, rather than shadow Jones or Golden Tate specifically. Tate is among the toughest covers from the slot, so it's hard to find this matchup especially intimidating for him. Although Kenny Golladay saw just three targets last week, I like his matchup against Atlanta's short corners. Keanu Neal did a good job against Martellus Bennett last week, but I think Eric Ebron is firmly in play simply because of the pass attempt volume Detroit might have.

Theo Riddick can always do something as a pass catcher, but Ameer Abdullah is clearly the lead runner in this offense. I don't particularly like the idea of using the small, shifty Abdullah against Atlanta's fast front seven,

On the Atlanta side, everything is pretty close to automatic. I'm firing up Matt Ryan and Julio Jones in the majority of my DFS lineups. Mohamed Sanu has produced well to this point, perhaps largely at the expense of Austin Hooper. I like the chances of that pendulum swinging the other way, especially with Detroit linebacker Jarrad Davis likely out.

There's not much reason to evaluate Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman differently than you would any other week.

Indianapolis vs. Cleveland

Open: 41 O/U, PK
Press time: 42 O/U, CLE -1.5

The Colts run defense has looked pretty good in the first two weeks. Considering they shut down Todd Gurley as a runner in Week 1, I'm kind of buying it. I'll be staying away from the Cleveland backfield in this one.

Rashard Higgins is an interesting play after turning 11 targets into seven catches for 95 yards, but I probably won't approach it in DFS, mainly because I'm worried that the trendiness will exceed whatever sleeper appeal he might represent. I'm not sure whether Vontae Davis (groin) is more likely to see Higgins or Kenny Britt if he returns from injury.

I don't know whether Jacoby Brissett is any substantial improvement as a passer over Scott Tolzien, but he at least seemed to open up the running game a bit for Frank Gore last week. Brissett also has a stronger arm, which theoretically could make T.Y. Hilton more viable on deep routes. I tend to think Hilton will still need to do most of his damage after the catch, though, and I'd otherwise only consider Jack Doyle among Indianapolis pass catchers.

Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay

Open: 41 O/U, MIN -1.5
Press time: 41 O/U, MIN -2

Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are the real deal, but it's hard to buy in to either with Case Keenum expected to start instead of Sam Bradford (knee). As almost always, if the Vikings get into the red zone, no one on the defense is likely to beat Kyle Rudolph in a box-out drill.

For me, Dalvin Cook is one of the most confusing players to project this week. I think he has legitimate star power, which if true would make him the kind of player you would start even against a tough defense, especially when you factor in the uncommon threat Cook poses as a pass catcher. Generally, though, I would imagine the odds are against him having a big game. The Tampa Bay run defense is among the best, and losing Bradford is big.

Mike Evans made a lot of good plays against a Bears defense that didn't back down at all. He's pretty close to matchup-proof. If Leonard Floyd were just a bit worse of a pass rusher, DeSean Jackson might have had a 44-yard touchdown against the Bears last week. The Buccaneers also got him involved a fair amount on intermediate targets, so he's not just a deep threat or/and decoy in this offense. If Xavier Rhodes follows Mike Evans, Trae Waynes and Terence Newman are going to be vulnerable against Jackson.

Jacquizz Rodgers might be the worst starting running back in the league, but he could end up in scoring range via the opposing offense's ineptness if Bradford proves damaged goods. The Minnesota defense should otherwise keep its hands on him.

New England vs. Houston

Open: 44 O/U, NE -11
Press time: 44 O/U, NE -14

Gronk is questionable with a groin injury, so who knows where this is headed. If he's in, he's of course an elite play. If he's out, it probably pushes more usage toward the already viable group of Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, and James White in the passing game. Dwayne Allen has seen plenty of snaps but only three targets so far – he presumably would run more routes if Gronkowski sits. Even in a game with depleted pass-catching personnel, you have to like Tom Brady as a heavy home favorite.

A Gronk abence might also benefit Mike Gillislee, as such an event could simply make the Patriots more run-heavy. As the clear goal-line runner for a home favorite, there's a great deal of objective strength to Gillislee's projection this week.

DeAndre Hopkins could see 15 or more targets in this one, so the well-known Bill Belichick strategy of eliminating the opponent's best player should be offset by Deshaun Watson's singular fixation on Hopkins in the passing game. Watson does not seem close to fantasy-viable yet, except perhaps in 2QB leagues.

Lamar Miller has 40 touches through two weeks, but it's hard to see him getting to 20 in this one. Houston's drives should be sporadic at best, and New England figures to run the clock out before 20.

Jets vs. Miami

Open: 41 O/U, MIA -3.5
Press time: 43 O/U, MIA -6

Coming off a strong debut against the Chargers, Jay Ajayi gets another nice draw this week against a Jets defense that's allowed 370 yards (5.4 YPC) and four touchdowns on the ground. If he could just get something going as a pass catcher, he'd really be in position for a big game. His knee injury makes him questionable, however.

Jay Cutler looked pretty good in his 2017 debut, and that he has DeVante Parker, Jarvis Landry, and Kenny Stills to throw to bodes well for his chances of maintaining that look. Parker (ankle) and Landry (knee) have some question to their status, but there's no reason to think the Jets can cover them or Stills if they're close to healthy. Julius Thomas has some GPP appeal against the Jets' rookie safeties.

With the Jets, I wouldn't bother with anyone but Jermaine Kearse. Robby Anderson doesn't match up well with Byron Maxwell or Tony Lippett, but he could get open if he sees Xavier Howard.

Philadelphia vs. Giants

Open: 43 O/U, PHI -3.5
Press time: 42.5 O/U, PHI -6

Unless the Eagles put someone other than LeGarrette Blount in as the lead traditional running back, I'll have no interest in their backfield. Moving on...

Carson Wentz has been very good through two weeks, even if Chiefs corner Terrance Mitchell turned an easy interception into a 53-yard catch. He gets a tough test in this one, facing the Giants' strong secondary personnel. But between the inability of the Philadelphia running game to earn a share of the overall output and the chance that the Eagles see favorable field position as its fierce pass rush tees off on Eli Manning, Wentz should have enough time of possession to establish volume and he should also see a couple scoring opportunities.

Nelson Agholor looks good these days, but he gets a tough draw against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the slot, so he might not get open as often as Alshon Jeffery or Torrey Smith. Top corner Janoris Jenkins is questionable with an ankle issue, so Jeffery and Smith both should be able to gain an advantage on him even if he does suit up. Zach Ertz, meanwhile, is locked into an almost automatic role in this offense.

Tennessee vs. Seattle

Open: 44 O/U, SEA -2.5
Press time: 42.5 O/U, TEN -2.5

Seattle is shaking up its offensive line in hopes of putting forth a better product than it did in the first two weeks, a stretch in which Russell Wilson routinely lacked the time to let any routes develop beyond a two-step drop. Continuity is often cited as a reason for the effectiveness of any given offensive line, so it's hard to see a reshuffling of the starting group truly paying off, especially in the first week. Even more especially against the likes of Jurrell Casey, Brian Orakpo, and Derrick Morgan.

So with that noted, I have trouble buying into Russell Wilson even as he takes on a questionable Tennessee secondary. By extension, I have trouble buying into his receivers, though I'd try my luck with Doug Baldwin if anyone. Perhaps Jimmy Graham's ankle issue can push someone forward.

Chris Carson certainly has a hold of the lead Seattle running back role for the moment, but he catches a Tennessee defense that was tough against the run last year and held Leonard Fournette to just 40 yards on 14 carries. I'll try elsewhere.

Big of a Marcus Mariota fan as I am, I don't want to see what Mike Mularkey sets him up for against the Seattle defense. I'm also concerned that Seattle's long corners pose an especially bad matchup for Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker. Missing Corey Davis (hamstring) will hurt. It's tough to get excited about Delanie Walker, either.

If the Titans can get the victory Sunday, then Derrick Henry needs to carry them there, even if DeMarco Murray (hamstring) is available. I'm not optimistic about his chances of posting a good rushing average against the Seahawks, but Henry should break them eventually if he gets enough volume, and the scoring potential on a short field is there as long as Wilson doesn't have time to drop back.

Green Bay vs. Cincinnati

Open: 45.5 O/U, GB -7.5
Press time: 46.5 O/U, GB -8.5

Aaron Rodgers is almost automatic at home, and even the absences of left tackle David Bakhtiari (hamstring) and Randall Cobb (shoulder) don't sway that projection. The Bengals technically rank as the top pass defense going into Week 3 after allowing just 104.5 points per game, but those games were against Joe Flacco and Deshaun Watson. There was nothing particularly impressive from the defense on film. I also really like Martellus Bennett's chances of getting something going in this one.

Ty Montgomery went from underused in 2016 to overworked in the first two weeks of 2017, but until his durability suffers for it he'll have a nice fantasy projection. That includes this week against a Bengals defense that let the Ravens and Texans pile up 325 yards on the ground. If Cobb is out, it could be a slight boost to Montgomery's already considerable passing game workload.

A.J. Green is going to have a good game in this one, even if he needs 20 targets to do it. Tyler Eifert is out, and Bill Lazor almost certainly wants to keep his job more than Ken Zampese did. I wouldn't bother with any other Cincinnati pass catchers because I don't trust Andy Dalton, though.

If Lazor really wants to keep his job, he'll feed Joe Mixon in this one. Or at the very least, he'll remove Jeremy Hill from the picture entirely. I think both Mixon and Gio Bernard have some GPP appeal this week, especially since the Packers look to be without Mike Daniels and Nick Perry.

Chargers vs. Kansas City

Open: 45.5 O/U, KC -3.5
Press time: 47.5 O/U, KC -3

The Chargers played a fairly aggressive, man-coverage press defense against Miami in Week 1, and that was despite facing a strong trio of pass catchers. It's an interesting approach, especially with top corner Jason Verrett (knee) out, which is expected to remain the case in this game.

If the Chargers try to press Tyreek Hill at the line of scrimmage, he has the speed to get behind anyone if he can get past the jam. When he's in the slot, Hill projects for a good matchup against a Chargers defense that let Jarvis Landry accumulate 13 catches. I would also think the Chargers' press coverage ambitions leave them vulnerable to Travis Kelce, no matter whether he's split out wide or playing next to the offensive line. You don't want to leave him running one-on-one regardless of whether it's a safety or linebacker. I guess I just talked myself into liking Alex Smith some amount.

Kareem Hunt, of course, is locked into elite fantasy status. Jay Ajayi put a beating on the Chargers run defense last week, and C.J. Anderson did well against them in Week 1. Hunt is better than both, especially as a pass catcher. There's no reason to think Hunt disappoints in this setting.

Primarily playing in the slot, Keenan Allen should remain a strong play as he for the most part avoids Marcus Peters, instead matching up with the beatable Phillip Gaines. Tyrell Williams will see some of Peters, but should also see plenty of liability corner Terrance Mitchell. Both players could get open quite a bit, so I expect the Chargers tight ends and maybe Melvin Gordon to lose some of their target volume while Allen and Williams benefit.

Any loss in his pass target volume would hurt Gordon if he doesn't improve his rushing efficiency, so I won't be going at him in DFS. He's also dealing with a knee issue that has him questionable. It's otherwise tough to get a read on Kansas City's rush defense – Carson Wentz and Darren Sproles combined for 103 of the 231 yards they've allowed on the ground, and neither player functions in a way that's analogous to the average running back.

Washington vs. Oakland

Open: 53.5 O/U, OAK -2.5
Press time: 54.5 O/U, OAK -3

The Raiders could stop neither the run nor pass last year, and through two games that remains the case with the run defense. The pass defense hasn't shown tight coverage, but at least the pass rush and general disruptiveness appears improved. Kirk Cousins will need left tackle Trent Williams to do better against Bruce Irvin than he did against Robert Quinn last week. Khalil Mack against Morgan Moses might be a problem. If he has time to throw, you definitely like Cousin's chances of hitting open targets.

Terrelle Pryor has had a slow start, but the targets should be there Sunday against a secondary that probably just can't cover him. Jamison Crowder is also a fine candidate to get something going after a disappointing first two weeks. That would be particularly true if Jordan Reed (chest/toe) is significantly limited in this one, which he very well could be.

I would like Samaje Perine in this matchup if Rob Kelley (ribs) is out, but Kelley has been in practice all week in a limited capacity. If Kelley is in, I'm staying away from this backfield despite the interesting matchup.

This strong Raiders offensive line will get a tough test from what might be the league's top edge-rushing duo in Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith, but they should be able to contain them with quick drops in the worst-case scenario. Against a thin secondary in a game against a team capable of putting up points, this is a great setting for Derek Carr to see both volume and favorable matchups.

As Carr goes, so go Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, who are both two of the top wideout plays this week. The reasons why need no explanation. I'm generally paying up for Cooper in DFS, hoping the higher price and Crabtree's three-touchdown game keep the ownership a bit lower on Cooper than it otherwise might be. I also really like Jared Cook in this matchup, assuming his shoulder injury is a non-issue.

You probably can't expect big volume from Marshawn Lynch – it looks like Oakland is taking advantage of Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington, and even Cordarrelle Patterson to keep Lynch fresh for the playoffs – but he looks great right now. For whatever usage Lynch gets, bet that he does a lot with it. He might need multiple touchdowns to push for a high ceiling in that crowded backfield, though.

Arizona vs. Dallas

Open: 47.5 O/U, DAL -3.5
Press time: 46.5 O/U, DAL -3

Carson Palmer needs a clean pocket to complete basic plays at this point, so an Arizona offensive line that has largely been overmatched the first two weeks will need to account for defensive end Demarcus Lawrence, who's been a monster for Dallas with 3.5 sacks and 12 tackles. Luckily for Palmer, the remaining pass rushers like youngsters Benson Mayowa, Taco Charlton, and Charles Tapper are unproven at best.

If Palmer stays upright and gets his pass catchers going, the top suspects would of course be Larry Fitzgerald and J.J. Nelson. It's tough to tell without all-22 tape, but Dallas seemed to play a lot of cover-3 and cushion-heavy zones last week. If they do that here, I like that setup for Fitzgerald, who should be able to identify coverages well.

Chris Johnson made a compelling case for Arizona to give him a look as starter by running for 44 yards on 11 carries against the Colts, who actually played good run defense in the game. Even with Kerwynn Williams likely remaining in the picture to some significant extent, I think Johnson viable in tournaments and even as a flex play in season-long leagues. The Dallas defense showed incredibly poor tackling last week. That also bodes well for Fitzgerald.

I'm expecting a bounce back from Dak Prescott – it'd almost be difficult for him not to after totaling just 238 yards (4.8 YPA), two touchdowns, and two interceptions on 50 attempts. Since Arizona plays an aggressive, man-coverage defense, there might be a couple opportunities for Prescott to get chunks of rushing yardage.

In the receiving game, Dez Bryant figures to see a lot of Patrick Peterson. You'd rather not see Bryant go against a corner as similar to him in build and athleticism, but he was able to get a few things going against Aqib Talib despite that being a similar situation. The Cardinals have seemed a bit soft over the middle through two weeks, allowing a lot of catches to Golden Tate and Jack Doyle in that part of the field. Jason Witten was already hot, and he could be stepping into another decent setting.

Ezekiel Elliott's embarrassing Week 2 will likely have him fired up, which he'll need to be against Arizona's tough run defense. They're allowing just 2.8 yards per carry this year and haven't allowed a run over 20 yards.