Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Chargers vs. Raiders

An AFC West matchup kicks off Week 15, with the 4-9 Chargers 3.0-point road underdogs against the 7-6 Raiders in a game with a 53.5-point total. The Raiders still have a shot at making the playoffs, and while the Chargers have been eliminated from playoff consideration, there's little reason to think they'll be pushovers, especially as they continue to develop their rookie quarterback.

QUARTERBACKS

If I told you there was a quarterback in this game who threw 47 and 45 passes for 381 and 316 yards in the last two games, respectively, including five touchdowns and two rushing scores, you'd probably think that was the Chargers' Justin Herbert ($11,800 DK, $16,000 FD), the most expensive player on DraftKings and FanDuel. However, Herbert only reached 209 and 243 yards on 53 and 44 passes in that span, the former of which was a 43-0 loss to the Patriots and the latter a 20-17 win over the Falcons.

No, Derek Carr ($10,000 DK, $15,000 FD) is the one doing the Patrick Mahomes impression lately, lighting up the Jets in Week 13 and then posting his second-highest scoring game of the season last week against a tough Colts defense. The limited production from starting running back Josh Jacobs may have contributed to Carr's prolific outings, but they could continue against a Chargers defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, though contributing to that is the six rushing touchdowns they allowed to the position, tied for the most in the league. Carr wasn't great against L.A. earlier this season, completing only 13-of-23 passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns, and the Chargers have been decent against quarterbacks recently, allowing fewer than 225 passes yards in six straight games, including four with fewer than 170, so there may not be a ton of optimism for Carr, especially as Jacobs comes in without an injury designation.

Herbert, meanwhile, was solid against the Raiders back in Week 9, completing 28-of-42 passes for 326 yards and two touchdowns, and he now faces a defense that's allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Each of the past four have thrown multiple touchdown passes, though two failed to reach 190 yards. Herbert's big games this season will likely make him a popular play even at his high price, though one of his teammates is likely to be more popular as captain/MVP because he has an excellent floor and great ceiling. Carr seems more likely to be a differential captain/MVP even though the Raiders are favored, and that strategy works if he spreads his passes around more than he has been recently.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

No player in the NFL has been targeted more than Chargers wide receivers Keenan Allen ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD), whose 144 are 10 more than the next-highest player. Additionally, he's second in receptions (99), though a relatively modest 7.0 aDOT leaves him with 975 receiving yards, the 12th-highest total in the league, and the lowest aDOT among players ahead of him is 8.3. Allen is questionable to play because of a hamstring injury, but he is expected to play.

The next most-targeted player in the game is Raiders tight end Darren Waller ($9,400 DK, $12,000 FD), whose 118 are the eighth-most in the league, though his 817 receiving yards are the 22nd-most. And after that? Chargers tight end Hunter Henry ($5,800 DK, $10,000), showing us that the wide receivers in this game could be less popular because of their production throughout the season, and Henry Ruggs won't play after being added to the reserve/COVID list. Additionally, the recent return of running back Austin Ekeler ($10,400 DK, $13,500) really throws a wrench into it considering he was targeted 34 times in the last three games.

Mike Williams ($6,200 DK, $10,000 FD) is always a consideration because he can make big plays at any point, leading the Chargers in air yards (1,071) while sitting second in aDOT (16.2) on his 66 targets. Williams lasted only two snaps last week because of a back injury and is officially questionable to play Thursday, so he could be much less popular than he normally would be if he's active. If he doesn't play, fantasy players could turn to Tyron Johnson ($5,000 DK, $6,500 FD), who caught six of seven targets for 55 yards and a touchdown while filling in for Williams last week, and he is obviously a big-play threat as evidenced by his team-high 23.3 aDOT, though it's on only 16 targets. Jalen Guyton ($2,800 DK, $7,000 FD) is technically third on the depth chart, and while runs plenty of routes, including a team-high 40 last week, the reception volume just isn't there, with only two games this season with more than two. Those who make a ton of lineups could theoretically include KJ Hill ($200 DK, $5,000) in their builds after getting one target in each of the past two games, but there just doesn't seem to be enough there for much production even if Williams is severely limited or inactive. 

Hill is pretty much in a forgotten group with backup tight ends Donald Parham ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) and Stephen Anderson ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), but he at least plays a position that's more likely to end up with a highly unlikely long play.

The Raiders have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, with a lot of that production coming recently, as they allowed two touchdowns to the position in each of their last three games, giving every reason for fantasy players to consider Allen as captain/MVP, while Henry may not be that popular with the Raiders allowing the 14th-fewest fantasy points to the position.

The Raiders side is just not that exciting after Waller, with Nelson Agholor ($7,400 DK, $10,500 FD) their most-targeted wide receiver (64) while also leading the group in receiving yards (635), air yards (933) and aDOT (14.6) if we throw out Ruggs' 17.5. Following Agholor is Hunter Renfrow ($4,800 DK, $7,500 FD), who works mostly out of the slot. Agholor had at least nine targets in three of his last four games, two of which he had at least 88 yards and a touchdown. He isn't the most exciting option, but he's the top wide receiver on the favored team in a game with a 53.5-point total, so he could really be a sneaky captain/MVP play if most people are bypassing him. The same applies to Renfrow, though given he's more of a possession receiver with somewhat limited touchdown upside, the bigger benefit to using him is that he's cheaper.

Ruggs' absence opens up the possibility of more snaps and routes for Bryan Edwards ($400 DK, $6,000 FD) and Zay Jones ($800 DK, $5,500 FD), who have combined for eight targets in the past four games. Edwards' 8.4 aDOT is decently higher than Jones' 5.3, though it's tough to get a great read on two players who have combined for 27 targets this season. Neither should be in the captain/MVP discussion because the expected volume just isn't there, but they theoretically make sense because they don't need to do much to make their salaries pay off, especially with how much you'll have to spend at the other flex spots.

Waller's dominance of the team's targets obviously means he dominates the tight end targets, so while Jason Witten ($200 DK, $5,500 FD), Derek Carrier ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) and Foster Moreau ($1,000 DK, $6,500 FD) will be active, it's just tough to see them making much sense in most builds, even Moreau, who had a 47-yard touchdown last week on two targets, the most targets he's had since Week 3.

RUNNING BACKS

There was talk about easing Ekeler back in when he returned from injury in Week 12, but that simply didn't happen as he got his full workload back immediately, and he's averaging 12.3 carries, 11.3 targets and 114.3 total yards per game over the past three weeks. Ekeler figures to be extremely popular, both as a flex play and captain/MVP because he has arguably the highest floor and a very high ceiling.

Ekeler was hurt for the previous meeting between these teams in Week 9, which is why Kalen Ballage ($2,400 DK, $7,000 FD) led the backfield by rushing 15 times for 69 yards and a touchdown while adding two catches on three targets for 15 receiving yards. However, Ballage has mostly turned into an afterthought since Ekeler's return, rushing 14 times for 48 yards and catching four of six targets for 11 receiving yards in the past two games (he didn't play in Week 12), and there's little reason to think Ballage will get a huge increase in touches as long as Ekeler, who is questionable with a quad injury, is active.

At the very least, Ballage should get more work than Justin Jackson ($2,000 DK, $7,500 FD), who played only 15 percent of snaps last week in his first game since Week 9 when he played three snaps before suffering a knee injury. Jackson was excellent the week before, but that was without Ekeler, and he likely won't get enough touches as long as Ekeler is in.

The big benefit to targeting the Chargers' backfield is that the Raiders have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, helped by the 103 targets they've allowed, the second-most in the league. Additionally, no team has allowed more rushing touchdowns, and only the Texans have allowed more yards per carry (5.37 versus 4.99). Needless to say, Ekeler is going to be popular.

The Chargers defense has only allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to running backs, though a lot of that is because of volume, as their 4.82 yards per carry allowed is the fifth-highest in the league. However, they've faced the 10th-fewest rushing attempts, and only five teams have allowed fewer than their seven rushing touchdowns. Those stats work in the favor of Josh Jacobs ($8,800 DK, $13,000 FD), who fundamentally works as the starting running back for the favorite in a game with a high total. Jacobs is the leader in the backfield and likely to be one of the most popular Raiders in the game, but it's tough to get overly excited about a player who has rushed for more than 100 yards just twice this season, and he's been nicked up enough recently that he's only rushed for 131 yards on 37 rushing attempts in his past three games.

Jacobs' availability likely decreases the opportunities for Devontae Booker ($1,800 DK, $8,500 FD), who performs moderately well when given the opportunities, but he just doesn't get enough to justify a ton of attention from fantasy players Thursday night. If anything, we could be drawn to Jalen Richard ($1,200 DK, $6,000 FD), who is cheaper on both sites and contributes more in the passing game, including last week when he caught four of five targets for 31 yards. That's nice and all, but how much money are you winning with a guy whose 31 receiving yards were a season-high and four catches tied it?

Jacobs makes sense from a contrarian captain/MVP standpoint if we end up seeing Ekeler, Herbert and Allen used heavily in the multiplier spots. It's not that Jacobs will be on a lower percentage of rosters, but he's likely to be under-utilized as captain/MVP, and his lower salary versus the Chargers guys means you can fit at least two of them in too.

KICKERS

With a fairly high total and attractive skill position players, the kickers figure to be overlooked for the most part. Michael Badgley ($3,800 DK, $9,000 FD) and Daniel Carlson ($3,600 DK, $9,500 FD) are priced around guys like Renfrow, Guyton and Ballage on DraftKings, plus Williams and Jackson on FanDuel, so it's understandable why many fantasy players may want to target the upside of those players in a game with a 53.5-point total.

However, Badgley and Carlson are worthwhile targets in cash games because of their floors, and a contrarian move in tournaments to play for a low-scoring game, which could make double-kicker lineups usable.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

While 16 quarterbacks have been sacked more than Carr, no one has fumbled more this season, which theoretically works for those interested in the Chargers ($3,400 DK) defense. Of course, they only recorded seven sacks and two fumble recoveries in the past four games, so maybe there isn't a lot there (they did pick off Matt Ryan three times last week). That being said, they look pretty good when compared to the Raiders ($3,000) defense, which scored negative fantasy points in three of their last four games. 

The position itself is very volatile, but at least the low salaries help alleviate that concern a bit. Given the high total, the defenses figure to be mostly ignored, which makes them worthwhile options when trying to compete in large-field tournaments.