This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
Week 8 kicks off with an intriguing Thursday Night Football matchup as the Bills play host to the Buccaneers. The total is 43 points at most sportsbooks, with Buffalo an 8.5-to-9-point favorite. That gives us an implied total of roughly 23 for the Bills and 17 for the Bucs.
Quarterback
Unsurprisingly, Josh Allen ($11,800 DK,$17,500 FD) is the highest-priced player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Given that scoring is down around the league, he's performed well this season, averaging 24.5 fantasy points per game on DK and 23.3 on FD. On FD, he's topped 25 points in three of seven games and 30 points twice in seven games on DK. The word of caution is that he isn't running much — he's topped 17 rushing yards only twice — but he still has four rushing scores. The Bucs are about a league-average matchup, so that doesn't change the analysis much.
Baker Mayfield ($9,200 DK, $13, 500 FD) has been a decent game manager for the Bucs, and that's carried over to his fantasy scoring. He averages about 16 points on both sites, topping 20 DK points twice and 15 points an additional two times. The Bills have given up only 13.77 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, albeit with a soft schedule. With the game in Buffalo and the secondary relatively healthy, this is a bad matchup.
Running Back
The total number of team carries don't seem to impact James Cook's ($8,600 DK, $12,500 FD) opportunity, as he's recorded 12-15 carries in all but two games. His usage as a pass catcher has been more sporadic, as he has at least three catches in four games, but none or one in two others. He's a safe bet for double-digit points on both sites, but his limited volume leaves him with little chance of hitting a ceiling performance. With Damien Harris (head) on injured reserve, Latavius Murray ($4,800 DK, $7,000 FD) is the only other back likely to get touches for Buffalo. Even as the top backup in Week 7, he saw only six total touches for 28 yards. His only path to fantasy production is finding the end zone. Ty Johnson ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) is the third back, but he was on the field for one offensive snap against New England.
The backfield in Tampa Bay is more in flux. Rachaad White ($8,000 DK, $12,000 FD) has been ineffective on the ground, topping 50 yards only twice while averaging 3.2 yards per carry. His "spike weeks" have come when he's been involved as a receiver. Week 7 was one example, when he managed 15.9 DK points (12.9 FD) and Week 2 was his best performance of the season with 21.3 (18.8 FD). In Week 6, it appeared that he was losing his role as the lead back. Luckily for him, both Sean Tucker ($200 DK, $6,000 FD) and Ke'Shawn Vaughn ($600 DK, $7,500 FD) have been even more ineffective, and his role ticked back up last week. That leads us to Chase Edmonds ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), who was activated from injured reserve Wednesday. He'll make his season debut, and if he's physically capable, should have a strong case to make for being the RB2. There's considerable risk that he just stands on the sideline, but he's also a good punt play.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Target distribution at top end for each team is stable and predictable. Stefon Diggs ($11,400 DK, $15,000 FD) is rightly the second-most expensive player. He has no fewer than seven targets in any game and double-digit looks in five matchups. Given his quality as a player, it's no surprise that he's been an elite contributor (24.7 DK points per game, 18.5 FD). Flipping to the Tampa Bay side, Mike Evans ($10,000 DK, $14,000 FD) hasn't racked up targets or counting stats at quite the rate of Diggs, but he is Mayfield's favorite target. He has 8-10 targets in all but one game (which he left early), so his role is quite steady. His production has come primarily through touchdowns — he's topped 80 yards only twice with 40-66 in every other game — so his profile is geared toward FD. Chris Godwin ($7,800 DK, $11,500 FD) out-targeted Evans in a game in which they both played full snaps for the first time this season in Week 7. His yardage has been comparable to Evans, the problem is that he hasn't found the end zone yet this season. On the other hand, he has five targets inside the 10 and nine inside the 20, so scores should come eventually. Godwin is a good buy low.
Gabe Davis ($6,800 DK, $11,000 FD) is next in line in terms of cost. His potential fantasy value is simple. He doesn't get targets consistently enough to produce in the same way top options already discussed, so he needs at least one touchdown — likely on a long play — to deliver from a fantasy perspective. Fortunately for him, the Bucs have given up a high rate of explosive plays this season.
All eyes will be on Dalton Kincaid ($5,000 DK, $7,500 FD), and he hasn't been priced up on either site. With Dawson Knox (wrist) sidelined, Kincaid should see a bigger role. Even while playing only 59 percent of snaps against New England in Week 7, he recorded eight receptions for 75 yards. Particularly on DraftKings, that's a solid line. Khalil Shakir ($3,200 DK, $6,500 FD) is another sneaky value option. Without Knox, the Bills will run less 12 personnel (particularly with Quintin Morris also ruled out), so Shakir should get on the field more. He's seen an increased role each of the last two weeks, and that should continue. Trey Palmer ($4,200 DK, $7,000 FD) and Deven Thompkins ($1,600 DK, $6,500 FD) have split the third receiver role in terms of volume, leaving both with little fantasy intrigue. There are better value options available.
As for matchup, the Bucs are a mildly positive matchup for wide receivers and tight ends. The Bills have been a negative matchup for both units. That's come primarily against poor offenses, but Tampa Bay also isn't special in that regard.
Kicker
Weather will be a factor in Buffalo later in the season, but we aren't at that point yet. Chase McLaughlin ($4,600 DK, $9,000 FD) has been accurate and a valuable contributor to Tampa Bay's on-field success, but he's reached double-digit fantasy points only twice. Shakir and potentially Edmonds have the chance to return a better score at a cheaper price. Tyler Bass ($5,400 DK, $9,500 FD) has missed three field goals his last two games, though he's shown more ceiling than McLaughlin by reaching double-digits three times (13,14 and 15 points). The higher implied team total also helps his cause, but his cost doesn't.
Defense/Special Teams
Mayfield has one pick in each of his last four games but has fumbled only twice. Overall, he takes decent care of the ball. He also takes only 1.3 sacks per game. Both of those stats put a damper on the outlook of the Buffalo defense ($4,400 DK, $10,000 FD).
Since his three-pick game Week 1, Allen has turned the ball over five times in six games. That's mitigated by Buffalo scoring 28.3 points per game — the third-best mark in the league. I'd also steer clear of the Buccaneers ($3,600 DK, $8,500 FD)
