Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Packers vs. Bears

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers doubtlessly view this as a Must Win game following their embarrassing Week 1 loss to the Vikings. Particularly given the way Rodgers has talked about the Bears in recent times, he really doesn't want to lose this one and open himself up to the resulting mockery. He could get a crucial reinforcement in Allen Lazard (toe), who is listed as questionable but practiced in a limited capacity all week. The Bears don't have nearly the playoff ambitions of the Packers and going to Lambeau doesn't suit them, so they are understandably viewed as clear underdogs – the spread is up to 10 points after opening at 8.5, and the over/under has somehow dropped from 51 to 41.5.

QUARTERBACKS

Aaron Rodgers ($10600 DK, $16500 FD) will understandably be one of the most popular picks in this game, perhaps including for captain spots, because tends to bounce back emphatically and especially when returning to Lambeau – more especially yet against the Bears. If Lazard could make it back for this game that might be enough to put a lock on a strong game from Rodgers. With that said, Rodgers seems displeased with his wide receiver options otherwise and left tackle is still a problem. In past years we could expect him to take care of business in this setting on the basis of his strength of play, but Roders isn't armed like he used to be. If he posts big numbers here it might be more attributable to the personnel limitations of the Bears defense.

Justin Fields ($10200 DK, $15000 FD) might be the more exciting quarterback at this point, but also a riskier pick given his weak pass-catching group and mediocre offensive line. Although the Packers defense blew it against the Vikings in Week 1, they have the personnel to put Fields in a difficult spot. Much of Fields' big game against the Packers in 2021 was yards after the catch from Jakeem Grant, and it's hard to see that sort of performance from his current group of receivers. On the other hand, Darnell Mooney mostly played the slot in Week 1 and he would be a really bad matchup for Rasul Douglas, who the Packers primarily played in the slot last week. If Fields can get a solid game from Mooney then Fields' running ability might do the rest of the trick for his fantasy investors. The Green Bay pass rush will be lively though, so he'll need to be composed and smart.

RUNNING BACKS

Aaron Jones ($12200 DK, $14000 FD) needs to have a big game here and the Packers know it. Jones played 12 snaps at receiver in Week 1 which hurt his rushing volume (just five carries) while doing nothing to boost his pass-catching production (three catches for 27 yards on five targets). A.J. Dillon ($8400 DK, $13000 FD) certainly wasn't the problem with Green Bay in Week 1, but the point of lining up Jones and Dillon in the same play is to get the ball to both of them more, whereas in Week 1 the result was just Dillon taking from Jones. A zero-sum game between the two is not in Green Bay's interests, and Jones is a greater threat from scrimmage. Both backs could be busy here, whatever the case, because even though Jones is the squeaky wheel the Packers might win so decisively that both runners get substantial carry counts.

David Montgomery ($9000 DK, $13500 FD) had a rough go in the monsoon last week, running for just 26 yards on 17 carries, but the conditions were difficult and the 49ers run defense is among the best. The problem in this case is that if the spread is correct the Bears running game might see light usage and poor efficiency both. If the Packers put up the points currently expected then it might force the Bears to abandon the run, and Montgomery isn't really a big-play back. Khalil Herbert ($5200 DK, $9500 FD) found easier sledding than Montgomery in Week 1, running for 45 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries, but he only played 16 snaps and unless his playing time increases he'll likely be touchdown-dependent to pay off in fantasy. Trestan Ebner ($200 DK, $5000 FD) played just four snaps against the 49ers but could conceivably play more in this one if the Bears are more ambitious with their passing game.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Allen Lazard ($9400 DK, $12000 FD) is the big question here, because if he's in he's likely Rodgers' top target in a game where Rodgers projects well. He would match up against the weakest part of the Bears secondary, which is the slot coverage of Kindle Vildor. If Lazard is out again then the limited Randall Cobb ($5400 DK, $6500 FD) would likely lead Green Bay in slot snaps. If Lazard is in then Cobb might not play much at all. Christian Watson ($4600 DK, $8000 FD) probably isn't very good, but the Packers GM is committed to polishing that you know what and Matt LaFleur has yet to resist. Plus, after dropping a touchdown pass on the first play last week it's possible Watson goes lightly owned in showdown slates. As long as he's playing snaps and Rodgers has a good game, Watson could go along for the ride even if not by merit. Watson's playing time comes at the expense of his betters – Sammy Watkins ($7200 DK, $10000 FD) and Romeo Doubs ($5600 DK, $7000 FD), but perhaps last week's results will give the Packers cause to reconsider Watson's playing time. If the Packers are displeased with all of their wide receivers then perhaps they'll give more playing time to Robert Tonyan ($6800 DK, $7500 FD), who was quietly very productive on his 22 snaps in Week 1. Blocker Marcedes Lewis ($200 DK, $5500 FD) wasn't targeted in Week 1 but sometimes pops up near the end zone. Josiah Deguara ($2800 DK, $6000 FD) do-nothing Tyler Davis ($600 DK, $5000 FD) each played 15 snaps in Week 1.

Darnell Mooney ($7800 DK, $11500 FD) could be a strong pick in this one, especially if the Packers leave him matched up against Rasul Douglas. Douglas is a lumbering corner better suited to the sideline than the slot – watch this become a problem for Green Bay over the upcoming weeks. Equanimeous St. Brown ($5800 DK, $6000 FD) played the second-most snaps among the Bears wideouts in Week 1 and has the Revenge Game narrative going for him, but it's not clear how regularly the Bears might target him this year. Tight end Cole Kmet ($2000 DK, $8000 FD) is too cheap on DraftKings, and is a better candidate to draw targets than any Bears receiver aside from Mooney. Dante Pettis ($4800 DK, $7000 FD) scored in Week 1 but it was on a busted coverage, and that play was his only target on 22 snaps. It's not clear whether the Bears plan to increase the playing time of previously presumed starter Byron Pringle ($5000 DK, $6500 FD), who drew two targets on just 10 snaps in the opener. While Kmet is the lead tight end for Chicago, Ryan Griffin ($200 DK, $5000 FD) played a substantial 30 snaps, though mostly as a blocker. Jake Tonges ($200 DK, $5000 FD) played nine snaps, running one route.

KICKERS

Mason Crosby ($4200 DK, $9000 FD) is still your kicker in Green Bay, and he projects well enough as a major home favorite. He wasn't especially effective in 2021, but Crosby is due for a couple field goal attempts after seeing none in Week 1. Cairo Santos ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) is a visiting underdog and lacks range, but he's usually very accurate from within 50 yards.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Packers ($4400 DK, $9500 FD) might be a fairly popular pick given the massive spread and nosediving over/under. They're no doubt in a bad mood after getting lit up by the Vikings, and the fact that they were widely considered one of the league's best defenses going into this year gives the Packers extra urgency to do damage on defense. The Bears ($3800 DK, $8500 FD) will of course be much less popular as heavy road underdogs. If you do pick the Bears DST you might want to consider pairing it with Ebner, as he was the Bears' kick returner in Week 1.