This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
The Sunday night game for Week 16 should be a good one. The home-team Jaguars (8-5) are trying to regain ground in the playoff race after botching last week's game against Cleveland, but the Ravens (10-3) are a potential roadblock to that pursuit. Jacksonville is dealing with a slew of challenging injuries, including wideout Christian Kirk and the standout defensive back duo of Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco, so while the Jaguars are no doubt grateful for the homefield advantage it's also true that they are somewhat besieged in their home. Then there's the weather: this game could have winds rarely seen in NFL game. Who knows what a tsunami game does to either team, but it might be difficult to get much going through the air. The over/under is 40.5 and Baltimore is favored by 3.5 points.
QUARTERBACK
Trevor Lawrence ($10400 DK, $14500 FD) is a gamer and his ankle injury appears to be a non-issue, but these are brutally uncharitable conditions for passing. If the ankle is still vulnerable at all then that could be a concern in a setting where Lawrence might be more dependent on running the ball than in any other week. Lawrence is normally a formidable threat as a rusher, so if the ankle is alright then he might be able to make a sizable fantasy impact on the ground to offset a likely decrease in passing production. With that said, the Ravens defense has been extremely hostile to quarterbacks in 2023, conceding
The Sunday night game for Week 16 should be a good one. The home-team Jaguars (8-5) are trying to regain ground in the playoff race after botching last week's game against Cleveland, but the Ravens (10-3) are a potential roadblock to that pursuit. Jacksonville is dealing with a slew of challenging injuries, including wideout Christian Kirk and the standout defensive back duo of Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco, so while the Jaguars are no doubt grateful for the homefield advantage it's also true that they are somewhat besieged in their home. Then there's the weather: this game could have winds rarely seen in NFL game. Who knows what a tsunami game does to either team, but it might be difficult to get much going through the air. The over/under is 40.5 and Baltimore is favored by 3.5 points.
QUARTERBACK
Trevor Lawrence ($10400 DK, $14500 FD) is a gamer and his ankle injury appears to be a non-issue, but these are brutally uncharitable conditions for passing. If the ankle is still vulnerable at all then that could be a concern in a setting where Lawrence might be more dependent on running the ball than in any other week. Lawrence is normally a formidable threat as a rusher, so if the ankle is alright then he might be able to make a sizable fantasy impact on the ground to offset a likely decrease in passing production. With that said, the Ravens defense has been extremely hostile to quarterbacks in 2023, conceding only 5.6 yards per pass.
Lamar Jackson ($12400 DK, $17000 FD) is not an easy fade in this game, even with the concerning weather. The Jaguars defense is nowhere near as composed as the Baltimore one, and Jackson has at least two viable YAC producers between Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely. Not just that, but Jackson's rushing ability could become the main story of this game if the field is wet. Jackson is difficult enough to defend as a runner, but if defenders can't anchor their feet reliably then defending gets more difficult yet.
RUNNING BACK
Travis Etienne ($10200 DK, $15500 FD) is going to get all the work he can handle, and probably more. As much as the Jaguars will probably call on backup D'Ernest Johnson ($6200 DK, $7000 FD) and even RB3 Tank Bigsby ($3800 DK, $6000 FD) at some points or another, Etienne is vastly superior to both players to the point that, particularly given the conditions, the fortunes of the entire offense could almost entirely rest on Etienne's effectiveness in this game. The Ravens run defense is quite good, but it's worth remembering that it's easier to slip on a wet field, and Etienne's speed makes the cost of such outcomes particularly high on a defense. The other two running backs need the benefit of good luck.
Keaton Mitchell ($5800 DK, $11500 FD) appears to have established himself as Baltimore's top running backs, and his rare speed makes him a unique big-play threat similarly to Etienne. Mitchell is unlikely to see as much volume as Etienne, but any mistake made by the Jaguars run defense could quickly turn into six points. Gus Edwards ($7400 DK, $10000 FD) has lost a painful number of snaps to Justice Hill ($2600 DK, $6500 FD) in recent games, but those snaps almost always occurred in passing situations. The weather gives Baltimore reason to run more than in those games, which therefore makes this look like a game where Edwards could bounce back, even if for just this week. You can only run Mitchell into the defense so many times, Edwards is clearly more qualified as a pure runner than Hill.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Winds like these might put a premium on YAC (yards after catch), which easily suits the abilities of Zay Flowers ($8800 DK, $13000 FD). Flowers' low ADOT (average depth of target) indicates that his usage is more wind-proof than perhaps fellow standout receiver Odell Beckham ($7200 DK, $9500 FD), whose ADOT (13.1 yards) is significantly higher than Flowers' 8.5 yards. Rashod Bateman ($3200 DK, $7000 FD) plays a starter-like snap count but is miscast as a downfield receiver (15.1 ADOT) even though his skill set fits better in the intermediate. Isaiah Likely ($6800 DK, $8000 FD) is a tough fade because he specializes in underneath targets and is an experienced target on screen passes. Charlie Kolar ($200 DK, $5000 FD) is a good bet to play 20 or so snaps, but to this point Kola hasn't been given any substantive opportunity as a receiver.
Calvin Ridley ($8600 DK, $12500 FD) is a good player and could draw a high share of Jacksonville's targets in this game, but the Jacksonville offense is often dysfunctional even in ideal conditions, and no one could fault a passing game for falling apart in weather like this. Ridley will likely see double teams to the extent that it could harm his target share, too. Rather than Ridley the better candidate to lead the Jaguars in receiving production might be tight end Evan Engram ($7600 DK, $11000 FD), whose bigger frame and lower ADOT likely makes him a more accessible target than Ridley or any other Jaguars wideout. Zay Jones ($5600 DK, $8000 FD) is not obviously better than Parker Washington ($4000 DK, $7500 FD) at this point, and Washington is almost definitely a better target for contested catches than Jones, who's more of a finesse player. TE2 Luke Farrell normally plays around 25 snaps but is only averaging one target per game on the year.
KICKER
Some chip shots could be available if turnovers create short fields, but winds like these don't make for good kicking. As much as nothing is assured either way, this might not be the best setting to invest in either Justin Tucker ($5400 DK, $9500 FD) or Brandon McManus ($4800 DK, $9500 FD), though both are normally excellent kickers for both real-life and fantasy purposes.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Weather this bad can hold a major arbitrary influence over the outcome of a game, creating conditions perilous for any offense and raising the chances of turnovers. While Lamar Jackson normally travels well, the Jaguars ($3600 DK, $9000 FD) defense could easily prove the main beneficiary of the brutal weather. The Jaguars are shorthanded on defense with Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco out, but this weather might bail them out.
Of course, the Ravens ($4400 DK, $9000 FD) are the favored team and their defense is stronger than the Jacksonville one by most metrics. Just as the Jaguars defense will likely benefit from the weather, the Ravens defense will likely be even scarier in these conditions. The Ravens are also healthier on defense than the Jaguars are.
