Streaming Defenses: Week 1 Options

There are two big problems with using the same defense week after week. For starters, it's hard to predict which teams will score the most fantasy points over the course of a season. And then, even if you pull it off successfully, you probably won't want to start that defense when they face a powerhouse like Pat Mahomes' Chiefs or Lamar Jackson's Ravens.

Team defenses are more sensitive to matchups than any other fantasy position, and it isn't only the A-plus, dominant offenses that need to be avoided. We also want to steer clear of veteran QBs with a proven knack for avoiding sacks and turnovers, namely Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Already, we're up to five matchups where the opponent conditions likely outweigh the talent of  the defense, and I'm guessing we could come up with a few others (#LetRussCook).

Last summer, ADP results pegged Chicago, Los Angeles (Rams), Jacksonville, Minnesota and Los Angeles (Chargers) as the top five defenses, in that order. Three of the five finished in the bottom half of the league, and even the two that didn't (Rams at No. 6, Vikings at No. 7) were only about two points per week above the median defense, which means you probably were better off streaming than sticking with Minnesota or Los Angeles all year.

For Yahoo standard scoring, the Vikings and Rams averaged 9.1 fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, the average for my top streaming recommendations was 11.6, and even the second choices yielded 9.4 per week (No. 3s averaged 8.5; No. 4s averaged 4.7; No. 5s averaged 7.8). Heck, even the people who struck gold with the Patriots D/ST probably would've been better off if they'd dropped them midseason and gone with the streaming approach (check out New England's November/December fantasy output if you don't believe me).

Before we get to our streaming picks, let's take a second to look at some of the better D/ST options for those of us who still have drafts coming up this week. First and foremost, the Indianapolis defense makes for an excellent end-game pick, opening the season with matchups against the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets and Bears. The Colts might even be playable Weeks 5 (at CLE) and 6 (vs. CIN), before returning from a Week 7 bye to face a much, much tougher schedule in November (Hello, Mr. Jackson!). 

If you can ride the wave without getting too attached, the Colts are a perfect D/ST choice to start the season, barely missing out on our ownership requirements for inclusion in this streaming article. The Eagles D/ST is another strong option that typically can be acquired in the final two rounds of a draft, starting the season at WAS, vs. LAR, vs. CIN, before things get tricky with road games in San Francisco and Pittsburgh and a home matchup with the Ravens.

And for those of you who can't resist the urge to use a top-150 pick on a defense ... maybe I can at least point you toward a team with a favorable early schedule? Buffalo starts against the Jets and then Dolphins, while San Francisco gets both New York teams and the Dolphins within the first five weeks, plus home games against the Cardinals (Week 1) and Eagles (Week 4). 

I'm not saying I'd use a mid-round pick on the Niners defense, but better that than drafting a Saints D/ST that doesn't get a cupcake matchup until after its Week 6 bye. Target the Saints as a midseason pickup after someone else drops them, rather than as a draft pick.

For injury/ranking updates throughout the week, follow me on Twitter (@RotowireNFL_JD).

Note: These recommendations are limited to team defenses that are rostered on less than 60 percent of teams on Yahoo or 45 percent on ESPN. Any references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo standard scoring, which doesn't include yards allowed.

Top Streaming Options for Week 1

1. Philadelphia Eagles (at Washington Football Team)

61% rostered on Yahoo, 40% on ESPN

Team implied total: 24.5

Opponent implied total: 18.5

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 9th vs. LAR,  Week 3: 7th vs. CIN

The Eagles defense was thoroughly mediocre last season, with solid work rushing the passer and stopping the run largely cancelled out by poor coverage. The additions of outside corner Darius Slay and slot specialist Nickell Robey-Coleman should help, while 2019 offseason prize Malik Jackson — an accomplished interior pass rusher — will essentially be another new face after a foot injury ended his initial Philly campaign in Week 1. On the other hand, converted corner Jalen Mills has been tabbed to replace former team captain Malcolm Jenkins (Saints) at one safety spot, and none of the linebackers appears better than competent.

The good news is that a merely average defense should have the advantage in this matchup, facing a 23-year-old quarterback who stunk it up last season and now is working with a new coaching staff after a truncated offseason. The Washington offense does have some exciting, young pieces, but only Terry McLaurin has proven production on top of the theoretical upside. Washington is tied for the second-lowest implied total of Week 1, and only five teams are bigger underdogs (+6.0).

2. Detroit Lions (vs. Chicago Bears)

4% Yahoo, 4% ESPN

Team implied total: 23.5

Opponent implied total: 20.5

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 25th at GB,  Week 3: 19th at ARZ

This is a clash of two units that appear to inspire zero confidence, with Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears offense taking on a Slay-less Detroit defense. It was Trubisky who got the upper hand in this matchup last year, but anyone who has been in the streaming game a long time can tell you that it's generally a winning proposition to start bad defenses against bad quarterbacks. While the Lions defense appears bottom-10 bad, Trubisky is more like bottom-3 among starting quarterbacks.

3. Los Angeles Chargers (at Cincinnati Bengals)

52% Yahoo, 40% ESPN

Team implied total: 23.5

Opponent implied total: 20.5

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 30th vs. LAC,  Week 3: 8th vs. CAR

This feels like a reasonable compromise between my own sky-high expectations for Joe Burrow and the general expectations surrounding game. If we went by the betting odds alone, the Chargers D/ST would be seventh or eighth in my Week 1 rankings. Instead, I have them No. 9, reflecting my Burrow optimism as well as some Chargers pessimism after star safety Derwin James suffered a season-ending knee injury. Granted, the betting lines account for James' absence, and the Chargers still have some serious firepower with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram coming off the edge while Casey Hayward, Chris Harris and Desmond King line up at cornerback. Something about this game fascinates me, but that might just be a product of drafting Burrow and Tyrod Taylor as my depth QBs on a million fantasy teams.

4. Tennessee Titans (at Denver Broncos)

33% Yahoo, 7% ESPN

Team implied total: 21.75

Opponent implied total: 19.25

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 7th vs. JAX,  Week 3: 21st at MIN

The first four picks on this list inspire at least a moderate level of confidence, while this one admittedly feels a little icky. Let's call it a desperation play and not much more, with the Titans playing as a slight underdog in a game that the second-lowest over/under (41) of Week 1. Maybe you push them up or down if you have a strong opinion on Drew Lock, or if we get news on workload expectations for last-minute-signing Jadeveon Clowney. FWIW, the line on this game moved a half point (-1.5 to -1.0) after Clowney joined the Titans.

Editor's Note: The Titans initially were listed as the No. 5 choice, but I switched them with the Broncos upon hearing of Von Miller's season-ending ankle injury. The line moved from Titans +1 to Titans -2.5.

5. Denver Broncos (vs. Tennessee Titans)

56% Yahoo, 78% ESPN

Team implied total: 19.25

Opponent implied total: 21.75

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 20th at PIT,  Week 3: 13th vs. TB

The Titans allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to team defenses last season, yielding 9.0 per game in Marcus Mariota's six starts but only 4.2 with Ryan Tannehill in the lineup. This is our first streaming pick where the appeal lies in the talent of the defense more so than the quality of the matchup. The Broncos still have their altitude advantage even without fans in the stands, and they also have an argument for the league's best pass-rush duo (Von Miller plus Bradley Chubb) and its best safety duo (Justin Simmons plus Kareem Jackson). 

Offseason trades for CB A.J. Bouye and former Titans lineman Jurrell Casey should cancel out the free-agent losses of Chris Harris and Derek Wolfe, potentially creating a top-10 defense if the injury luck improves from last season. The Denver defense finished 27th in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) metric last year, with Chubb's ACL tear being the biggest problem. Granted, recent reports suggest Chubb could start the season in a part-time role, and 2019 team tackle leader Todd Davis was released a few days ago. Still, the overall talent is solidly above average, and an improved offense should leave the defense in better situations this year.

Week 1 Rankings

1. Buffalo Bills (vs. NYJ)

2. New England Patriots (vs. MIA)

3. Baltimore Ravens (vs. CLE)

4. Philadelphia Eagles (at WAS)

5. Indianapolis Colts (at JAX)

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (at NYG)

7. San Francisco 49ers (vs. ARZ)

8. Detroit Lions (vs. CHI)

9. Los Angeles Chargers (at CIN)

10. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. HOU)

11. Tennessee Titans (at DEN) - moved up a spot Wednesday due to Von Miller injury

12Denver Broncos (vs. TEN) - pushed down a spot due to Miller injury

13. New Orleans Saints (vs. TB)

14. Dallas Cowboys (at LAR)

15. Los Angeles Rams (vs. DAL)

16. Chicago Bears (at DET)

17. Minnesota Vikings (vs. GB)

18. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. LAC)

19. Green Bay Packers (at MIN)

20. Las Vegas Raiders (at CAR)

Looking Ahead to Week 2

1. San Francisco 49ers (at NYJ)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. DEN)

3. Buffalo Bills (at MIA)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. CAR)

5. Chicago Bears (vs. NYG)

6. Arizona Cardinals (vs. WAS)

7. Tennessee Titans (vs. JAX)

8. Cleveland Browns (vs. CIN)

9. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. LAR)

10. New Orleans Saints (at LVR)

11. Kansas City Chiefs (at LAC)

12. Indianapolis Colts (vs. MIN)

13. Baltimore Ravens (at HOU)

14. Dallas Cowboys (vs. ATL)

15. Seattle Seahawks (vs. NE)

16. Minnesota Vikings (at IND)

17. Green Bay Packers (vs. DET)

18. New York Giants (at CHI)

19. Miami Dolphins (vs. BUF)

20. Los Angeles Rams (at PHI)

Rest-of-Season Rankings

1. San Francisco 49ers

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. Baltimore Ravens

4. Buffalo Bills

5. New Orleans Saints

6. Indianapolis Colts

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8. New England Patriots

9. Kansas City Chiefs

10. Los Angeles Chargers

11. Minnesota Vikings

12. Philadelphia Eagles

13. Green Bay Packers

14. Chicago Bears

15. Washington Football Team

16. Denver Broncos

17. Cleveland Browns

18. Los Angeles Rams

19. Tennessee Titans

20. Dallas Cowboys

Editor's Note: I made a few changes to the ROS rankings Wednesday night, taking account of the Clowney signing, the Miller injury and some schedule/matchup-related concerns.