Game Spotlight: Sterling Projection

In addition to the Vikings and Rams, this week's Spotlight will look at ATL vs. CIN, NYG vs. NO, and LAC vs. SF from the day slate on Sunday.

Thursday

LAR vs. MIN

Open: 47.5 O/U, LAR -6.5
Live: 48.5 O/U, LAR -7

Despite sky-high expectations and a legitimately top-notch collection of talent, the Vikings' whole season finds itself in a blender after an improbable two-week stretch featuring a divisional tie, a home-game meltdown of historic proportions against the Bills, and now a short-week turnaround to travel west against what might be the best team in the league. Cruelly, the Vikings also carry the burden of knowing that Everson Griffen, one of their best players and beloved personalities, is in the midst of an out-of-nowhere mental health crisis. It's a thin line between a cornered animal and a beaten one, and no matter the result of this game it's fair to say that the Vikings as a team are facing incredible, maybe unprecedented stress as they try to prepare for this monumental task.

None of this is to account for the hamstring injury that kept out Dalvin Cook in Sunday's loss, an injury that leaves him uncertain for Thursday despite resting last week. Cook has a history of prolonged hamstring troubles, and returning from ACL surgery doesn't help his odds of shaking it in this case. Cook is practicing in some capacity this week, but he's questionable. His chances of appearing at or near full strength seem far fetched.

The Vikings defense is great, sure, but Sean McVay looks just about ready to run this league. He has good players to work with, and he's smarter than any coach he goes against. Jared Goff is locked in, as are the automatic wideout trio of Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Brandin Cooks. The Vikings did soundly defeat the Rams last year 24-7, limiting Todd Gurley to 37 yards on 15 carries in the effort, but this Rams team is different, and last year's game was in Minnesota.

Perhaps the greatest difference from last year is how the Minnesota offensive line will likely be a glaring liability. It's a below average group at its healthiest, but left tackle Riley Reiff might be out with a foot issue. You might recall that Ndamukong Suh was not on the Rams a year ago, and Reiff's potential absence should amplify the already ominous effect of Suh on the Vikings offense. Even if the Rams run defense is beatable, it's hard to see Latavius Murray or a hobbled Cook getting enough volume to make a dent in that regard.

Kirk Cousins should be a decent bet to accumulate volume in this setting, though, especially with cornerback Marcus Peters nicked up. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are tough covers to the point that you can imagine them getting the better of any particular defense, and this is an urgent setting that will hopefully bring out their best.

Even if the Vikings can seize inspiration rather than despair, this looks like a tough matchup for them, particularly with Reiff and Cook compromised. The odds are no longer than they were for the Bills last week, if that's some twisted solace in the meantime.

Sunday

ATL vs. CIN, 1:00

Open: 48 O/U, ATL -5
Live: 52 O/U, ATL -4

Nine touchdowns in two games later, Matt Ryan's Week 1 struggles and the consequent freakout in various media corners seem like a distant, absurd dream. Ryan was utterly ruthless in his last two games, and he heads into his third consecutive at home against a Bengals defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

They've allowed just 6.4 yards per pass, though, and cornerback William Jackson in particular is a problem for any passing game. That could mean a problem for Julio Jones specifically, though a talent like Jones is always locked in for season-long leagues and otherwise is a valid tournament call whenever he's active. Calvin Ridley has the bull's eye on him now, but you would think he sees Dre Kirkpatrick instead of Jackson for the most part, and while Kirkpatrick is solid I'm not sure it's a great matchup for him. He's a lanky, grabby corner, and quick, smallish wideouts like Ridley are often the kryptonite of tall corners. Mohamed Sanu has the revenge game narrative going for him, and he remains involved despite Ridley's emergence. He saw seven targets last week, and as a regular in the slot I think he could benefit from running his routes at the weakest part of the Cincinnati defense.

Despite the points allowed to quarterbacks, the Bengals are allowing just 6.3 yards per target to receivers, so it's actually the middle of the field, and the linebackers specifically, where it's easier to attack. That is to Sanu's benefit, as previously mentioned, but also that of Tevin Coleman. Coleman disappointed me last week in a prime setup, but I'll probably go back to the well here against a Bengals team allowing 4.6 yards per carry and 6.9 yards per target to running backs. Austin Hooper also might be a better GPP play than usual, as the Bengals allowed 32 targets to tight ends in three games, conceding a completion rate of 71.9 and 6.8 yards per target.

With Joe Mixon (knee) still out, it will be another spotlight game for Gio Bernard, and with a smashing on-paper lineup. The Atlanta defense lost a lot of blood with the injuries to Keanu Neal and Deion Jones, then they lost Ricardo Allen, the other starting safety. Bernard's projection is favored additionally by the dual tendencies of Atlanta to provoke shootouts and then channel the catch-up targets to the running back, where they've allowed a league-leading 45 targets with the second-highest team (Indianapolis) allowing only 34. Bernard's setup looks golden for cash games and tournaments alike.

A.J. Green irritated his owners by leaving last week's game with a groin issue, but he's apparently fully ready for this game. If that's the case, then he carries one of the highest projections of the week. This defense is down both of its starting safeties, and Green is the sort of talent who can overrule matchups anyway. The Falcons somewhat puzzlingly have just five sacks in three games, so for the Bengals' sake hopefully that continues, allowing Andy Dalton to take deeper drops to hit Green and John Ross further downfield. Regardless of how much the Falcons pass rush forces the issue, Tyler Boyd has clearly emerged as one of the league's best fantasy receivers, and his play as a slot receiver locks him into the game plan regardless of whether Cincy is throwing short or long. Basically, every traditional target for Cincy looks great in this one, and I think Ross makes sense as a GPP play just in case he coincidentally loses the yips just as he faces a team with two backup safeties in the lineup.

NYG vs. NO, 4:25

Open: 49 O/U, NO -3.5
Live: 50.5 O/U, NO -3.5

We often shy away from Drew Brees and the Saints passing game a bit when they hit the road, but in this matchup it's hard to find a reason why that would make much sense. The Giants pass rush is dead to this point in new defensive coordinator James Bettcher's 3-4 alignment, and they just gave up a nice fantasy box score to Deshaun Watson. Michael Thomas remains locked into an almost impossible workload with Mark Ingram's usage still unaccounted for, and even if he faces tight coverage from Janoris Jenkins, Thomas should be able to bully him to create windows for Brees. The Giants have been favorable to receivers generally, conceding 9.2 yards per target to wideouts despite allowing only 7.4 YPA generally. Ted Ginn can definitely make the deep kill shot against this defense, but his already sporadic target count might be further destabilized by dropping passes last week as Cameron Meredith got his foot into the door.

The Giants have contained pass-catching production by opposing running backs, but I see no reason for even vague concern for Alvin Kamara here. Like Thomas, he's the beneficiary of incredible usage with Ingram out, and the idea of Alec Ogletree watching Kamara out of the flats seems like a win for Kamara. When Kamara is lined up at receiver, as he often is, he would project for an even more obvious advantage.

The Saints have only six sacks through three games, which is a four-way tie for sixth-worst in the league. As long as he has time to run, Odell Beckham can get open against anyone, even Marshon Lattimore. But the Giants should be able to get him away from Lattimore if they motion Beckham right. I think he's viable for cash (though a bit pricey perhaps) and love him for tournaments. The absence of Evan Engram really puts Sterling Shepard on the map, and again I have no problem with using him in cash games, aggressive or unconventional as that might be.

The GPP logic is always there for Saquon Barkley, but the Saints defense has been very tough to running backs this year. After two weeks I would have attributed that primarily to Peyton Barber and Carlos Hyde, but the Saints also shut down Tevin Coleman last week. Running backs have just 163 yards and one touchdown rushing on 60 carries against the Saints (2.7 YPC), though nine catches for 71 yards on 11 targets might imply an opening for Barkley in the passing game.

LAC vs. SF, 4:25

Open: 47 O/U, LAC -9.5
Live: 46.5 O/U, LAC -10.5

Trying to not be mad about the Garoppolo injury and failing. Okay.

C.J. Beathard is better than I thought he would be coming out of Iowa, so I don't consider my substantial investments in the San Francisco offense to be a complete loss. In this particular matchup, though, I'm unsure what to think. Joey Bosa is still out and the Chargers pass defense has struggled so far, but that could easily be what happens to any team that faces the Chiefs and Rams in two of their first three games. Josh Allen largely struggled in the game in between, for example. I'll probably make a GPP lineup or two with Beathard just to chase the Shanahan system and Beathard's underrated running ability, but I'm not expecting a clean box score.

I still believe in the talent of Marquise Goodwin, Pierre Garcon, and Dante Pettis, and I expect one of the three to have a fine game here. But the Chargers still possess very good cornerback personnel, and even if the receivers beat them, it's hard to fully believe in Beathard's ability to capitalize more than occasionally. I doubt I have any 49ers pass catchers in this game – not even George Kittle! I will always be a Kittle Truther but I'm also aware of who Derwin James is.

The Chargers run defense has suffered to this point, allowing 280 yards on 62 carries (4.5 YPC) while opposing running backs turned 21 targets into 13 catches for 161 yards and a score. It would be a shame if Matt Breida is slowed by the knee injury he suffered last week, because he's torching right now. He somehow has six carries of 20-plus yards on 32 attempts, and he can absolutely capitalize as a receiver if healthy, too. If Breida is out or limited, then Alfred Morris would project for a greater share of the offense, but the underdog scenario is problematic for his projection.

Melvin Gordon has been a rock each week to this point, and he steps into another favorable setup as the favored team against an uptempo offense. If Beathard struggles in his first start of the year, then Gordon's projection would be amplified by favorable field positioning. He justifiably might be the top cash play of the week, though that's not to discredit his obvious appeal as a tournament play, too. The 49ers have been very tough on running backs, though, limiting them to 208 yards and two touchdowns on 62 carries (3.4 YPC) while 33 targets resulted in just 183 yards (5.6 YPT), trends that should solidify with Reuben Foster's arrival. Still, Gordon is a touchdown machine, and you almost categorically have to like him if you expect the Chargers to win. You might notice that the spread keeps building in the Chargers' favor – I think speculating on Austin Ekeler in DK's PPR scoring is a reasonable wager if you want action on this offense while fading Gordon a bit in a tournament, because maybe the Chargers just won't need Gordon much.

Whether you like Philip Rivers this week might depend on how you evaluate Beathard vs. the Chargers defense and Gordon vs. the 49ers run defense. If you think Beathard shows up, you can probably like Rivers if only for the escalated stakes. If Beathard makes a game out of it, odds are the Chargers will need Rivers to step up and win it, which he likely would do. That the 49ers are an uptempo team invites significant upside in this scenario. But even if Beathard is bad, there's the chance the Foster and Fred Warner step up at linebacker and contain Gordon from scrimmage. If that occurs, then you would still bet on the Chargers to win, because Rivers would take the reins that much more.

Whether Rivers does well shouldn't be subject to the status of Keenan Allen (knee), though it'd certainly help if he was present and playing to his normal standards. The 49ers secondary is a mess, thanks in part to injuries to Richard Sherman and Jaquiski Tartt. The knee and Allen's history of knee trouble would probably keep me away from him in cash games, but if he's starting Sunday I'll probably be tempted to run at him in GPPs in case the knee deflates his ownership numbers.

Regardless of whether Allen plays, you have to love where Mike Williams is headed, and in this game he'll understandably be one of the top GPP targets at receiver. If Allen is out, I think you can go at him in cash games too. I just don't think Rivers will be denied, and there might be a bit of a funnel toward the pass if Foster and Warner keep limiting the run. Tyrell Williams is trending downward but I can guarantee you I'll make multiple GPP lineups with him if Allen is out. I might make a couple anyway. Antonio Gates might be on the upswing after catching three of five targets for 45 yards against the Rams, and his usage would likely benefit too if Allen sits.