This article is part of our On Target series.
Welcome back to another year of On Target, my friends. We are taking the column in a slightly different direction this season with more of a focus on specific WR/CB matchups as well as a continued discussion of the passing game. My idea for the column throughout the preseason is to get us all up to speed with the important risers and fallers on the offensive side of the ball present as much actionable information as possible for drafts.
This week, we will highlight three receiving situations that are unsettled and where we have a chance to gain some clarity in preseason and also will discuss some of the rookie cornerbacks and how they could influence passing matchups in a way that was (obviously) not present last season.
Patriots Depth Wide Receivers
The sequencing of news out of the Patriots camp all offseason has really lead me to believe that they don't know what to expect out of their receiving depth chart after Chris Hogan. Hogan is basically a locked-in WR2 with a WR1 ceiling if touchdown variance smiles on him this season, but what is more intriguing to me is what happens after him. Kenny Britt is now slated to start opposite Hogan in the first four games before Edelman's return and likely after that with Edelman working out of the slot. However, Britt is now entering his age-30 season and has a single 100-target season under his belt. He's probably more athletic than the list of players
Welcome back to another year of On Target, my friends. We are taking the column in a slightly different direction this season with more of a focus on specific WR/CB matchups as well as a continued discussion of the passing game. My idea for the column throughout the preseason is to get us all up to speed with the important risers and fallers on the offensive side of the ball present as much actionable information as possible for drafts.
This week, we will highlight three receiving situations that are unsettled and where we have a chance to gain some clarity in preseason and also will discuss some of the rookie cornerbacks and how they could influence passing matchups in a way that was (obviously) not present last season.
Patriots Depth Wide Receivers
The sequencing of news out of the Patriots camp all offseason has really lead me to believe that they don't know what to expect out of their receiving depth chart after Chris Hogan. Hogan is basically a locked-in WR2 with a WR1 ceiling if touchdown variance smiles on him this season, but what is more intriguing to me is what happens after him. Kenny Britt is now slated to start opposite Hogan in the first four games before Edelman's return and likely after that with Edelman working out of the slot. However, Britt is now entering his age-30 season and has a single 100-target season under his belt. He's probably more athletic than the list of players behind him, but I'm not locking him in to 16 productive games.
The team cut Jordan Matthews when he got injured and signed Eric Decker. Decker is probably the favorite to start at slot WR in Week 1, but he's more like a -110 favorite over the field and not a lock. Braxton Berrios, Riley McCarron, Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson have a chance to play well enough to get on the field. McCarron is a small UDFA from Iowa who ran a 4.46 40 and has an agility score of 10.75, which is otherworldly. He and the uber-athletic Patterson are the players who would become draftable in 12-PPR leagues with exceptional preseasons. The Patriots are so thin at WR that these bottom-of-the-roster guys will actually play quite a bit and the coaching staff will be monitoring them as close as we will.
Bengals No. 2 Receiver
Let it be clear: John Ross is not a shoe-in for this job. The team could be confident in him, it could want him to win the job, it can want him to fulfill the draft capital spent on him, but if a guy can't or won't play, then a guy can't play. The team just cut its second-most targeted wide receiver from last season in Brandon LaFell, hoping that it would be a vote of confidence in Ross … or whoever is behind him. Tyler Boyd is probably close to locked in to the slot job, though I think a really strong preseason and training camp from Josh Malone could get him into the lineup more often than not.
Unlike most fantasy analysts you read, I think this Bengals offense is probably going to range from fine to a switch above league average. Andy Dalton was fine from a fantasy perspective under Bill Lazor, and Mixon seems like a decided upgrade on giving Jeremy Hill carries, which should improve their overall efficiency, so this battle between Ross, Malone, Cody Core, Auden Tate and even Alex Erickson is actually worth paying attention to. Mostly, if Ross is a gigantic flop even in preseason, the team will begin to turn to the next man up, which is likely Malone (16 targets, 63 yards, 1 TD last season, though the team spent draft capital to acquire Tate and he would fill the old Marvin Jones role.
Arizona Pass Catchers
Steve Wilks and Mike McCoy would be lying to you if they told they knew for sure who would play the second-most wide receiver snaps for the Cardinals in 2018. Fortunately for them, they have David Johnson, who is going to finish with the second-most targets/receptions on the team, making their second wide receiver job is more like the third pass-catching job. Johnson will lineup in the slot, out wide, probably even as an H-back or full back on a few plays here or there. However, they do have a cadre of talented players who are actual wide receivers and who will demand a solid target share. With the news of Ricky Seals-Jones' arrest and a looming suspension, the wide receiving jobs got even more important.
Christian Kirk, Brice Butler, Chad Williams and J.J. Nelson are vying for that third spot in the pecking order and, make no mistake, it's a valuable one. Sam Bradford, when healthy, supported a viable fantasy ecosystem when he wasn't playing for Jeff Fisher, and Mike McCoy has led top-half-of-the-league passing offenses in every season where he didn't have Paxton Lynch or Tim Tebow. Kirk is a super explosive rookie (4.47 speed, 6 return touchdowns in college), Brice Butler is a WR1 body type who Dallas stupidly let go this offseason, Chad Williams is another solid size/speed prospect who was unable to really make an impact as a rookie and J.J. Nelson is best cast as a third/fourth wide receiver who uses his 4.28 speed to get open deep.
Rookie Cornerbacks
Denzel Ward, Cleveland Browns
Ward has the potential, per most draftniks, to become a Day 1 starter for the Browns, something they definitely needed. Cleveland ranked 29th in DVOA against WR1's last season and Ward "is on the smaller side but is physical with an elite combination of quickness, hip fluidity and closing burst. He is instinctive and aggressive in man-to-man coverage and has the ball skills to take it away," per Steve Meunch. If Ward is indeed a Week 1 starter for the Browns opposite E.J. Gaines, who ranked 24th in PFF"s cornerback rankings last year, the Browns could easily become a much tougher WR matchup in 2018.
Jaire Alexander/Josh Jackson, Green Bay Packers
Green Bay was last, 32nd, in DVOA against WR1s last season. The Packers got stomped on a per target basis worse than any other team in football. They acquired Tramon Williams who was PFF's 14th-ranked corner last season and also drafted Alexander and Jackson in an attempt to limit the damage WR's were doing. Alexander was a combine freak who, per Walterfootball.com, had "maybe the best combine of any prospect" whereas Jackson was pretty underwhelming at the combine. Alexander is a likely starter or at least Week 1 contributor, and Chris Sprow had this to say on ESPN.com about Jackson: "After drafting Jaire Alexander in Round 1, the Packers land a corner most thought would also go on Day 1 with Jackson, who brings length and tremendous ball-hawking skills to the Green Bay secondary." If Jackson and Alexander join Tramon Williams in being above average, the Packers could have a gigantic year-to-year swing in terms of fantasy matchup potential.
Mike Hughes, Minnesota Vikings
Unlike the Packers and the Browns, the Vikings added another highly drafted CB to an already amazing pass defense. The Vikings finished fourth in pass defense DVOA overall, ninth vs. WR1s and fifth vs. WR2s. Xavier Rhodes is a legit shutdown, lockdown corner who was a bit lower in PFF grading than we'd expect (42nd of all qualified CB) but projects better than that in 2018. Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander and Terence Newman remain on the roster, but Huges is already projected as at least the nickel corner. Scouting reports seem to suggest that Huges can play both a nickel and outside corner, which will give the Vikings three above-average (again: if Hughes' matches his draft status) cover corners and even guys to rotate in for them. Hughes will be a guy I monitor all preseason because if he is actually good, the Vikings will be almost a total no-go in terms of WR starts.
