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As we navigate through the season, we are starting to see Top 5 candidates in every category crystallize a bit, but at this point, no one has come through with any of the top prizes! That won't stop us from trying, however.
Before diving into Week 14, let's take a look at last week's winners in every category.
WEEK 13 RESULTS
QB Passing Yards - Jared Goff
The Rams managed to rebound. Goff was nowhere to be seen on our projections given his poor play in previous weeks.
QB Completed Passes - Matt Ryan
Both Ryan and Goff were all over the QB stat categories. We sorely missed this category as well.
RB Rushing Yards - Derrick Henry
We should have stayed on Henry, but elected to go back to Christian McCaffrey.
RB Receiving Yards - James White
The bad news continues! Were it not for Tom Brady's late flurry, this could have gone to Ezekiel Elliott. Our pick of McCaffrey came in third.
WR Receiving Yards - Robert Woods
The connections for Goff continued, as Woods blew out everyone with 172 receiving yards.
WR Receptions - Robert Woods
Woods went 2-for-2 in the WR categories, and while 3.5% of the field picked Woods for receiving yards, no one picked him in this category.
FG Made - Wil Lutz
We finally got one right, as it was the right week to go back to Lutz.
Defense Points Allowed - Bengals
As you'd expect, no one in the field picked the Bengals. How could you blame them, really.
Week 14 Targets
QB Passing Yards
Sam Darnold, NYJ vs. MIA
Miami is showing signs of improvement late in the season, but their defense is still one of the most porous squads in the league, and they rank 27th against opposing quarterbacks. Darnold has shown the ability to post big numbers, and this is a great scenario for him to do so.
Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. DET
This game sets up well defensively, as the Lions have allowed 3,361 passing yards this season (25th), and the Vikings enter a situation where Dalvin Cook might be limited. The Vikings could be in a position to lean on Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs here.
QB Passes Completed
Jared Goff, LAR vs. SEA
The Seahawks defense will make things tough for Goff, but the Rams seem to have abandoned the run lately. Los Angeles has two great possession guys in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, who can both rack up the catches as Goff finds them with check-down passes.
Jameis Winston, TB vs. IND
Like Goff, Winston is in a system that seems to have reverted to the pass and abandoned the run, and you can't ask for a better tandem than Chris Godwin and Mike Evans as targets.
RB Rushing Yards
Derrick Henry, TEN @ OAK
Could Henry make it three in a row? The Raiders rank 21st against opposing running backs, so it's a plum situation for him to repeat.
Carlos Hyde, HOU vs. DEN
This is probably an outlier pick for most, but the Broncos are going to continue to run with Drew Lock under center and that could result in a lopsided win for Houston. Hyde's been extremely effective and can eat up the clock in the second half.
RB Receiving Yards
James White, NE vs. KC
I like White repeating in this category, as the Chiefs have had a lot of difficulty with pass-catching running backs. Kansas City rank next to last in defending the category, and though you can never predict how the Pats will dole out the snaps, Brady will need a guy like White as a security blanket.
Aaron Jones, GB vs. WAS
Jones is due for a return in this category, and the Redskins furnish him with a great opportunity. Jamaal Williams has eaten into Jones' usage, but if the Packers want to get back to basics, they should be looking to Jones early and often out of the backfield.
WR Receiving Yards
Kenny Golladay, DET @ MIN
Golladay has flirted with this category multiple times, and it's a high-variance play with so many mouths to feed. The Lions will certainly try to exploit the weak Vikings secondary, and Golladay could be the beneficiary.
D.J. Moore, CAR @ ATL
In an offense dominated by their star running back, it might be tough to identify Moore as a legit option, but the Falcons could give McCaffrey trouble and Atlanta's Achilles heel is pass defense. Definitely a contrarian play.
WR Receptions
Calvin Ridley, ATL vs. CAR
It's not out of the realm of possibility that Ryan could bink a category or two, but he's burned us in the past, and the Pick8 is a cruel, cruel mistress. Going with Ridley flies in the face of a stacking strategy, and diversifying in this format isn't advisable, but you'd want a piece of Ryan if he excels.
DeVante Parker, MIA @ NYJ
Fitzpatrick and Parker hooked up often last week, leading to a career day for the wideout. Could this be the beginning of a streak, or will we see a regression from Parker as he falls back into the same old receiver with unrealized potential? Nailing the Pick8 is all about taking risks, so why not?
FG Made
I'm going to roll with Wil Lutz one more time. And I'll do the same with Younghoe Koo.
Defense Points Allowed
Remember that we are strictly looking for points allowed, so we are trying to identify blowouts and goose-eggs.
I'm going to go with the Texans against the Broncos, and the Browns against the Bengals.
