This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Futures Odds: 2024 New England Patriots Win Totals
Betting team wins, and other full-season futures, requires patience. If placing a bet in the preseason, the payout usually won't occur until January. That said, there are edges to be gained in the betting market. The more knowledge we have about each team's talent on each side of the football provides an edge.
In addition, projecting potential intangibles can add value. Examples of intangibles are teams that add a new coach/coordinator, or teams that made multiple moves to the less glamorous positions on the field. For those who followed this article series I wrote last season, we projected nine teams, winning six for a 66.7 percent win rate. Overall, the series was a moneymaker. This year, we'll look to continue that win percentage.
In this article, we'll look at the Patriots under 4.5 wins at +130 odds. These odds, as well as all other NFL win totals odds, can be found at BetMGM Sportsbook.
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Patriots Outlook: Offense
Maybe Drake Maye will be a franchise quarterback. However, in the NFL, unless a young quarterback has a particular elite weapon in his arsenal, it's unlikely that player can raise a talent-deficient roster.
First off, the New England offensive line lacks elite talent. The tackles are merely decent. On the interior, this is not a special unit. In terms of pass catchers, the trio of Kendrick Bourne (knee), DeMario Douglas, second-round rookie Ja'Lynn Polk and tight end Hunter Henry are unlikely to strike fear into opposing defenses.
Even though Rhamondre Stevenson is a very good running back when healthy, but he tops out at slightly above average. It's difficult to imagine the Patriots scoring consistently against defenses in the top half of the league. When facing the weaker defenses, they may also be hit-or-miss.
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Patriots Outlook: Defense
The loss of coach Bill Belichick cannot be understated. Regardless of the defense's talent, the ability to create game plans that consistently caused opposing offenses to underperform made the coach one of the greatest ever. It wouldn't matter who took the defense over, the loss of the defensive mastermind matters.
It's difficult to know if some of the players on this defense did well because they were deployed perfectly to showcase their strengths, or which players were truly elite. The linebacker unit appears to be very good while having depth. It's possible that along with a decent defensive line, the team can limit opposing rushing attacks.
On the edges, Matthew Judon and Josh Uche should be able to provide a solid pass rush. In terms of cornerbacks, second-year player Christian Gonzalez looked excellent before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Otherwise, Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones are undersized. Overall, this defense could be above average. However, it's unlikely they hold up against teams with strong passing attacks.
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Schedule
Unlike in the past, when New England dominated their division, they are now (easily) the worst team in the group. These six games may be a real issue. Divisional games often were the times when Belichick gained his greatest advantages. That is no longer the case.
When facing the NFC, the Patriots draw the NFC West and the Bears. Two wins would be considered a success. Other AFC matchups include the upstart AFC South along with the Bengals and Chargers. Overall, this is a tough schedule draw for the Patriots.
Best Bet for 2024 Patriots Win Total
I'm recommending the Patriots under 4.5 wins at +130 odds. These odds can be found at BetMGM Sportsbook. Yes, winning four games or fewer sounds improbable. That said, it is difficult to imagine the offense will be able to score many points.
Also, losing Belichick may not be optimal for a team that needs all of the edges they can find. When looking at the first eight games on the schedule, it is tough to find one game that New England should win. Unfortunately, there are also very few games in the second half of the season in which the Patriots seem to have an edge. A season with two or three wins would not be surprising.
