This article is part of our NFL Reactions series.
This week's Sunday theme seems to be centered on 2018 late bloomers at quarterback, or maybe you could call them the in-season post-hype candidates. Renewed optimism surrounded all of Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, and Mitch Trubisky going into this year, but for all of them the prior three weeks carried varying but substantial concerns. For Luck it was related to his basement-level depth of target, for Mariota it was unspecified damage to a nerve in his throwing elbow, and Trubisky was merely faceplanting in a setting where he should have showed substantial improvement after the Bears added talent in the offseason.
Trubisky was of course the headliner with 354 yards and six touchdowns passing on just 26 attempts against the Buccaneers, and even added 53 yards rushing on three carries. Trubisky struggled in an ugly fashion in his three prior starts, where he threw for just 591 yards (5.7 YPA), three touchdowns, and three interceptions, so it's fair to attribute much of this breakout effort to the Buccaneers pass defense. Still, a game like this might mark a point of measurable progress in development, and if Trubisky can keep trending upward there would be significant fantasy upside given his place in an uptempo scheme that utilizes his running abilities. He'll have a bye week to work on the offense further, and it's reasonable to hope that he improves on his timing as he gets more reps with a group of pass catchers which, to be fair, does feature
This week's Sunday theme seems to be centered on 2018 late bloomers at quarterback, or maybe you could call them the in-season post-hype candidates. Renewed optimism surrounded all of Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, and Mitch Trubisky going into this year, but for all of them the prior three weeks carried varying but substantial concerns. For Luck it was related to his basement-level depth of target, for Mariota it was unspecified damage to a nerve in his throwing elbow, and Trubisky was merely faceplanting in a setting where he should have showed substantial improvement after the Bears added talent in the offseason.
Trubisky was of course the headliner with 354 yards and six touchdowns passing on just 26 attempts against the Buccaneers, and even added 53 yards rushing on three carries. Trubisky struggled in an ugly fashion in his three prior starts, where he threw for just 591 yards (5.7 YPA), three touchdowns, and three interceptions, so it's fair to attribute much of this breakout effort to the Buccaneers pass defense. Still, a game like this might mark a point of measurable progress in development, and if Trubisky can keep trending upward there would be significant fantasy upside given his place in an uptempo scheme that utilizes his running abilities. He'll have a bye week to work on the offense further, and it's reasonable to hope that he improves on his timing as he gets more reps with a group of pass catchers which, to be fair, does feature a lot of new faces between Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, and Anthony Miller.
Mariota was off to a nice start in Week 1 before he was hit late after a handoff, at which point he struggled to grip a football due to nerve damage in his elbow. That forced the Titans to turn to Blaine Gabbert at quarterback, but that became a short-term arrangement when Gabbert suffered a concussion against Jacksonville in Week 3. Given that it was those circumstances that forced the Titans to turn back to Mariota, it's remarkable that he played this well against an Eagles defense that was one of the toughest by every measure a year ago. Despite the losses of Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews, Mariota completed 30-of-43 passes for 344 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in the improbable overtime victory, in which he added 46 yards and another touchdown on the ground. Hopefully Mariota can maintain the progress he's made with his elbow.
Injury concern was arguably even greater in the case of Luck, who generally showed decent velocity in the first three weeks, but was unwilling, unable, or not allowed to throw downfield. That made it reasonable to worry that Luck's injury had robbed him of something, or even that the shoulder might have been dealing with aggravation. Those concerns were eased Sunday, as Luck completed 40-of-62 passes for 464 yards and four touchdowns in an overtime loss against Houston, giving him more yardage and touchdowns than the prior two games combined.
Unlike the cases of Trubisky and Mariota, there is one development of significant concern for Luck today. Star receiver T.Y. Hilton predictably led the Indianapolis pass catchers Sunday, catching four of six targets for 116 yards, but he accumulated chest and hamstring injuries that make him look rather doubtful for Week 5 at New England.
• He's maybe not quite post-hype, but Jameis Winston might also loosely fit in with the previously described theme. Winston didn't fail to live up to hype as much as he had his job temporarily seized when Ryan Fitzpatrick played so well in the first three weeks, but a 48-10 loss to Trubisky will give Tampa reason to go ahead with Winston as starter even though his box score of 145 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions on 20 attempts wasn't much better than Fitzpatrick's 126 yards and an interception on 18 passes.
• It's worth noting that Ronald Jones finally got some work in that Tampa game. His two targets went for minus-two yards and his 10 carries only 29 yards, but Peyton Barber saw only seven carries for 24 yards on the game. Jones might still fail this year, but Barber hasn't set the bar high.
• Sony Michel decisively established himself as New England's lead runner in his third game, producing 112 yards and a touchdown against Miami on 25 carries. James White saw eight carries while Kenjon Barner saw three, though Michel saw no targets in the passing game. Michel should see some pass-catching opportunities going forward, though, because White, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Dwayne Allen won't usually combine for 17 targets when Tom Brady throws 35 passes.
• Kenyan Drake's non-usage on the other side of that game is disheartening. He saw three carries to Frank Gore's 11. Oscillating between indifferent and obtuse, the Dolphins are a pointless team and are basically a leak in the boat for the NFL. Along with Dan Snyder and Jerry Jones, Stephen Ross is one of the NFL owners most deserving of exile.
• Two of the league's emerging stars at receiver stayed hot as they faced off in Atlanta today, where Tyler Boyd caught 11 of 15 targets for 100 yards while Calvin Ridley scored his fourth and fifth touchdowns in two weeks while catching four of six targets for 54 yards on the other side. Their parallels continue with the fact that they both might see their usage knocked a bit when their respective starting runners (Joe Mixon and Devonta Freeman) return from injury, but it nonetheless looks like both are great bets to finish as top-20 fantasy wideouts.
• Aaron Jones continued to contrast himself with incumbent starter Jamaal Williams in Green Bay's victory over Buffalo, as Jones took 11 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown while Williams' 11 carries resulted in just 27 yards, including just 16 yards on 10 carries. Mike McCarthy was drawn toward Williams due to his superior pass blocking and durability, but Jones and Ty Montgomery (74 yards from scrimmage) are making the case that Williams should mostly be an off-the-bench passing situation contributor barring injury to Jones or Montgomery.
• I think there might be enduring mainstream fantasy utility with Keke Coutee, who made a dynamite regular season debut Sunday after missing the prior three games with a hamstring issue. He secured 11 of 15 targets for 109 yards against the Colts, exhibiting a reliable underneath skill set in a role that should see plenty of room with Will Fuller pulling the safeties downfield and DeAndre Hopkins often pulling at least two defenders in coverage. The Texans passing game has all but dismissed the tight end position, meanwhile, so it's difficult to see why Houston wouldn't accommodate a role for Coutee going forward. The 15 targets will likely be a high for both this year and next for Coutee, but Deshaun Watson has the look of a reliable 30-touchdown quarterback once he shakes off the rust from his ACL tear, so with a little luck Coutee could sort of play the Steve Breaston part if Hopkins and Fuller are Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in that analogy.
• Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis were unable to get anything going against Philadelphia's strong run defense, but I think they're both good buy-low candidates. If Mariota can maintain his momentum, this running game is all but guaranteed to take off. The matchups have been exceptionally bad the past two weeks, and Houston the week prior isn't easy to run on, either. Taywan Taylor would benefit as well – if Mariota keeps it going, Taylor will get something too.
• The deal with Alshon Jeffery going forward should be understood easily enough. Jay Ajayi might be a decent buy-low target before the Philly passing game raises the tide of that entire offense.
• Kerryon Johnson didn't get a chance to build much volume, but Detroit was fairly committed to him early in the game, and he started ahead of LeGarrette Blount. If Detroit was willing to make that change in this game, then Johnson should only gain ground relative to Blount going forward.
• You already know how I feel about Nick Chubb vs. Carlos Hyde. Unfortunately for Chubb investors, I really do think John Dorsey is orchestrating a half-tank and mostly intends to showcase Hyde irrespective of immediate competitive considerations.
-Antonio Callaway's motor and focus are lacking and that might always be the case, but it's hard to look past the fact that he has 20 targets in his last two games. Callaway is a first-round talent with an undrafted character background, but if he's getting targets we only care about the talent part of that.
• The NFL needs things like the Rooney Rule if only as a mechanism to block people like Brian Schottenheimer from crashing on its couch for years at a time and making the whole place unbearable for everyone. The level of incompetence with that guy and the nakedly obvious fact that he only ever had a job in football because of his surname basically makes his position as offensive coordinator corrupt in nature. Something is off with Seattle and I don't think the institutional dysfunction is at all past them, especially with the bitter spectacle of Earl Thomas suffering an injury he all but prophesied immediately beforehand.
• I see even less hope for Arizona in the short term. I really can't recall a more embarrassing coaching debut than Steve Wilk's first month. I don't think he makes it the whole season, and I think the offense is doomed regardless of whether it's Josh Rosen or Sam Bradford at quarterback. The best thing to hope for at this point might be Mike McCoy as interim head coach. He's never been particularly good, but McCoy has never failed to an extent like this under his own discretion, either.
• What an incredible four-week run it's been for Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. I think you'll see the usage rates of both decline noticeably with Mark Ingram's return, but their owners can probably afford business to slow a bit after a month of profits like that. Besides, even in this reduced form Kamara and Thomas are strong bets to rank top-three at their position in any given week.
• Melvin Gordon is basically infallible right now. He has not only matched last year's production that was already so valuable, but he's seemingly been the primary recipient of Hunter Henry's former usage, also. After 10 more against the 49ers, Gordon is up to a remarkable 34 targets in four games. He's on pace for 96 catches for 796 yards and 12 touchdowns receiving in addition to 1,104 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. He could be in the midst of an All-Decade sort of season.
