This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Bye: Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Tennessee
Stat of the Week I: Week 8 -- first in NFL history with four 400-yard passers (Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Foles, and Luck). A season-high six players scored 30-plus points last week (only 10 in first seven), most since 2011.
Stat of the Week II:Russell Wilson averages more yards per carry (8.2) than yards per pass attempt (7.2).
New Orleans (-2.5) at Carolina, Thursday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Saints improved to 3-0 inside the Superdome, convincingly beating GB for their 12th straight home win in primetime (longest since merger). Contrasting the great Bill Parcells, this team may be better than its record indicates: although winless on the road in four chances, three were last-minute heartbreakers that could've gone either way (DET, CLE, ATL). After zero 20-point games entering Week 7, Drew Brees has two in as many weeks. Sunday was Brees' first three-TD outing all year, and first without an INT in his last four. Fantasy's No. 10 QB (sixth per game, 18.3) has four straight 300-yard games (five of seven overall). Jimmy Graham, eighth highest-scoring TE, scored 11 against the Pack after just three total points his previous two games. Excluding the two he was limited in, Jimmy Graham has at least five catches and 59 yards every game. Brandin Cooks' career day seemed like more of a blip on the radar as opposed to a coming-out party. He scored his first touchdowns since opening day and has yet to reach 100 total yards in any game. Better in PPR formats, Cooks' 40 receptions (5.7 per) lead the team and 51 targets are just three behind Graham. Marques Colston scored six times his last six games against the Panthers. However, none came in Carolina (exactly two TD in all three at home). Rushing 24 times for a career-high 172 yards, Mark Ingram looked like Emmitt Smith. Ingram averages 5.7 YPC and a touchdown per in four games. Too bad this game isn't on SNF, where his only two 100-yard games have come (8.3 YPC, 38-317-2 combined), but Carolina's 28th-ranked defense surrenders 135.5 YPG. ... After allowing 37-plus points in four of its previous five, Panthers defense played outstanding against Seattle (13 points). Luke Kuechly, the league's leading tackler (89), continues to carry the unit against New Orleans' high-powered offense (second in YPG, 445.3, fifth in points, 28.4). Cam Newton is coming off his worst game this year (four points, previous low: 11), his first without a touchdown, but faces the Saints' 31st-ranked pass defense (289.3 YPG) that allowed 418 yards to Aaron Rodgers. Unfortunately, Newton is 18th among quarterbacks (below Ryan Tannehill) and has just one game with more than 18 points and two more than 14. Kelvin Benjamin, 13th in both fantasy points (81) and targets (68), has at least nine points in three straight and five of his last six games. No. 5 TE Greg Olsen had a rare bad day, but at least 62 yards in six games and double-digit fantasy points in five. Ron Rivera announced DeAngelo Williams (ankle), who's missed four straight and six of eight, will not only play but start Thursday. Interesting choice considering Jonathan Stewart's impressive 79 yards (most since 2011) on 4.9 YPC.
Predictions:Drew Brees throws for 309 yards and two scores, both to Jimmy Graham. Ingram powers his way to 93 yards and a touchdown. Cam Newton, averaging 12 rushes over his last three, totals 297 yards and two TD (9-49-1 rushing). Kelvin Benjamin hauls in five for 83 and a touch. In a shocking battle for first between losing teams, Saints clearly the better squad, even on the road. New Orleans, 24-17.
Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Cleveland, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Tampa played considerably better off the bye, but dropped its second overtime tearjerker in three weeks. Mike Glennon has thrown interceptions in four straight, but he protects the ball fairly well as those are his only four turnovers in five games. His play has been far from stellar, but solid, giving TB a chance to win three of his four starts. Sadly, Vincent Jackson is still a Buccaneer (love to see him in NE or SEA). Catching only 40 percent of his targets (26/65), Jackson has just one game with more than four catches or 66 yards (averaging 3.7 receptions, 51 yards, 5.5 YPT). On the flipside, Mike Evans has four-plus receptions in every game and just one less than V-Jax this season despite 23 fewer targets. It's likely Evans out-produces his teammate for a third straight game with Joe Haden expected to shadow Jackson. Austin Seferian-Jenkins caught the go-ahead TD for his first career score then proceeded to fumble away the game in overtime. Doug Martin, averaging 2.9 YPC (3.2 or fewer in four of five games), has no more than 45 rushing yards in any game. It's not just with the ball: his pass-blocking grades out 57th of 58 qualified RB according to PFF. Between terrible play, an ankle injury and Charles Sims coming off IR, Martin could be supplanted as starter sooner than later. Sims is set up for success, as the Browns' 30th-ranked run defense allowed at least 127 yards every game prior to last week (OAK, 71). ... Cleveland avoided becoming the first team in history to drop back-to-back games to winless squads this late in the season. The offense deserves little credit, but Brian Hoyer completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 9.8 YPA in a turnover-free performance. Despite scoring more than one touchdown just once, Hoyer has an 8:2 TD:INT ratio and 7.9 YPA. Thanks to seven or fewer targets every week, Jordan Cameron has no more than three catches or 50 yards in five of six games. Cameron catches just 42 percent of targets this season (13/31); averaging only 2.2 receptions on 5.2 intended passes. After being thrown at nine-plus times in six of seven games, Andrew Hawkins finally snatched his first TD. Excluding weeks five and six, the PPR machine has 36 catches for 470 yards in five games (7.2 catches, 94.0 YPG). Browns running game is struggling without Alex Mack; Ben Tate produced just 140 yards on 56 carries (2.5-yard average) over his last three games, YPC down in four straight with the last three all 3.1 or fewer.
Predictions: Tashuan Gipson, leading the league with five INT, picks off Glennon for his fourth in three games. With Martin out, Charles Sims tallies 98 total yards (67 rushing). Haden effectively shuts down V-Jax, limiting to 37 yards. Andrew Hawkins secures 7-of-9 targets for 74 yards. Jordan Cameron, questionable with a concussion, plays and musters 68 yards and a TD. Bucs stifle Ben Tate (47 yards, 17 carries). Tampa Bay, 19-16.
Jacksonville (+11.5) at Cincinnati, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Playing well for a month now, the Jaguars defense would've had JAX in contention if not for two soul-killing pick-sixes by Blake Bortles, who leads the league in INT (12) and turnovers (13) despite not starting until week three. Bortles hovered around 50 percent completion for a second straight week, turning it over three times in both and at least twice in five of six this season. Cecil Shorts has just five catches for 63 yards combined over his last two, exceeding 41 yards once in five games. On the bright side, Allen Robinson scored touchdowns in consecutive games, averaging 13 points per. Robinson has at least four catches every game since Week 1, hauling in 5.4 during those seven. The rookie recorded double-digit PPR points in six of those, netting 64.7 YPG over that span. Jacksonville found a running back/game with Denard Robinson notching back-to-back 100-yard games, 117.5 per. In those two, Robinson has 235 yards on just 40 carries (5.9 YPC); by comparison, Toby Gerhart rushed 52 times for 133 yards (2.6 YPC) this season. ... Aided by the officials, Cincinnati snapped its three-game winless streak. The Bengals remembered how to tackle, shed blocks and rush the passer; this might actually be the same unit allowing 11.0 PPG through three games. Oddly enough, Andy Dalton has six passing TD in seven games, but scored three times already rushing/receiving. Dalton has at least 17 points in three straight. A.J. Green (toe) expects to play this week, but coach Marvin Lewis remains non-committal. With 13-plus points in three of his last four, Mohamed Sanu is now 14th in WR scoring. Sanu's emergence kept the offense afloat and provides Dalton an ancillary option even when Green returns. No. 7 RB Giovani Bernard has 10-plus points in five of seven games, but just 63 total yards on 27 touches over his last two (2.3-yard average). Jacksonville has allowed just 276 rushing yards (55.2 YPG, 3.8 YPC) to opponents' top RB over its last five games, none gaining more than 82 on the ground.
Predictions:Giovani Bernard tallies 118 YFS and a touchdown. A.J. Green plays limited snaps but scores in his return. Bengals, who intercepted Flacco twice last week, pick off Bortles twice en route to a top-five showing. Their 29th-ranked run defense (140.7 YPG) wakes up, limiting Denard Robinson to 57 yards rushing. Allen Robinson catches five balls for 63 yards. Cincinnati, 23-13.
Arizona (+4) at Dallas, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Don't look now, but the Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 games. At 6-1 (best start since 1974), Arizona owns a two-game lead in the NFC West and the best record in football despite being 24th in total defense and ranked 25th offensively. Their plus-nine turnover differential is second only to NE. Carson Palmer, one of only two quarterbacks to throw at least two TD in every game (Peyton Manning), has a minimum of 16 points in every game. Not only averaging 18.8 FPPG, Palmer's suddenly mistake-free, turning it over just twice in four starts. Boy, does Larry Fitzgerald love playing the Eagles -- he finished just 12 yards short of his career high with 160, including a career-long 80-yarder. In seven games against Philly, Fitzgerald has 47-802-11, scoring in every game (11 TD, most against a non-division opponent). Either a sell-high or just catching on depending on the source, Fitz has at least 15 points in two of his last three. In and out of the lineup with a banged-up knee, Michael Floyd was held without a catch on four targets. Floyd has just 101 yards (25.3 per) combined his last four games, no more than 47 in any. Even more concerning, he averages just 6.1 targets per game, more than seven just once. Although ninth in RB scoring, Andre Ellington is horribly inefficient lately with 3.7 YPC or fewer in five straight games. Since Week 3, Ellington carried it 100 times for just 320 yards (3.2 YPC). Something has to give as only one team allows more per rush than Dallas' 4.8. ... Dallas' win streak halted at six in typical Cowboys fashion, but they still lead the East at 6-2 despite the blown opportunity. By leading two scoring drives in as many series', Brandon Weeden proved reliable if called upon despite his career 5-15 record as starter. Due to missing time with the back injury, No. 11 QB Tony Romo failed to score multiple touchdowns and at least 15 fantasy points for the first time in six games. Romo completed at least 60 percent of his passes in every game. Both 68.2 completion percentage and 8.3 YPA would be the second highest of his career, and he gets the NFL's 32nd-ranked pass (302.9 YPG) this week. Eighth in WR scoring, Dez Bryant is quietly pacing 96-1,240-10. Cardinals give up 27.4 FPPG to WR (second most); he might top that himself if Arizona keeps the criminally overrated Patrick Peterson on an island. Both 6-foot-2, 208, Antonio Cromartie (fresh off a two-INT game) covering No. 16 WR Terrance Williams will be fun to watch. Jason Witten, now 12th among tight ends, scored for the second time in three games and his first double-digit performance of the year. The runaway first-half MVP, DeMarco Murray, eclipsed 1k rushing yards during his eighth straight 100-yard game. Murray has 20-plus points in half his games and at least 16 every week, but needs to clean up the five lost fumbles.
Predictions: Arizona's third-ranked run defense (77.9 YPG) is the first to hold DeMarco Murray under the century mark, limited to 88 yards on 22 carries. Dez Bryant destroys Patrick Peterson, hauling in 10 passes for 148 yards and two TD. Andre Ellington nabs his first 100-yard rushing game with 111. Cowboys rebound from Monday's disappointment but Cards cover. Dallas, 24-21.
Philadelphia (-2) at Houston, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: If not for the worst defensive call/execution since Rahim Moore in the 2013 divisional playoff, Philadelphia would be 6-1. Eagles extended their league-best streak of 19 straight games with a takeaway, but failed to score 21 points for the first time in 15 games. LeSean McCoy, just outside the top-20, rushed for at least 81 yards in three straight (104.3 YPG over stretch). However, McCoy has just one TD all year (none since Week 2) a year after scoring 11 times. Practicing all week, Darren Sproles (MCL sprain) likely returns Sunday. No. 17 QB Nick Foles completed a franchise-record 36 passes but still holds the ball too long and displays poor anticipation, making his passes late, underthrown or behind the receiver. That was his first 300-yard and 20-point fantasy game in his last four, but Foles has committed exactly two turnovers in four straight. Jeremy Maclin, No. 1 WR last week and sixth for the year, is playing like Missouri-Maclin, looking explosive as ever posting a career-high 187 yards. Although scoring in five of seven, that was his first multi-TD game. After at least 77 yards his first two, Zach Ertz has 48 or fewer in five straight games and four points or less in four of those. ... Houston, second with 17 takeaways, dropped four of its previous five before dominating Tennessee. Arian Foster is ridiculous, scoring in four straight games with at least two TD in three of those and eight total over that span. Thanks to 100-yard efforts in four straight and six of his seven games, Foster actually averages more FPPG (19.5) than DeMarco Murray (17 points behind, one fewer game). Sunday marked his third career three-TD day; all other Texans combined have three such games. DeAndre Hopkins, 16th among wide receivers, has at least five catches, nine targets and 95 yards in each of his last two. With no less than four in any game, Andre Johnson averages 5.8 receptions. Johnson, outside the top-30 in standard scoring, has at least 55 yards in seven of eight games but hasn't hit the century mark. Johnson has just one TD but so did Fitzgerald prior to playing PHI, which allows 26.6 FPPG to WR (fourth most in NFL).
Predictions: Eagles hold Arian Foster to 87 yards, but he adds another 38 receiving and scores. In Fitz fashion, Andre Johnson goes off for 152 yards and two TD. LeSean McCoy runs for 121 yards, scoring twice himself. Maclin hits pay dirt again during an 82-yard day. Eagles come out of Houston with a W. Philadelphia 27-21.
New York Jets (+9.5) at Kansas City, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Well, maybe starting Michael Vick will give the Jets a spark, trading for Percy Harvin certainly didn't. Things really can't get any worse, right? NY is a league-low minus-13 in turnover differential and riding a seven-game losing streak. Geno Smith didn't even require the full period to throw three first-quarter interceptions, doing so in 11 minutes and becoming the first player since Rex Grossman in 2006 with three or more INT and two or fewer completions. All jokes aside, considering I've been advocating Vick start from Day 1, I believe he gives this team a much-needed lift. Generally, with Vick comes the No. 1 rushing offense in football -- not just because of his yardage (69 against BUF), but the additional running lanes he opens up for backs. Chris Ivory, 10th in RB scoring already, will benefit greatly. With at least 16 points in two straight, Ivory could make it three against a Chiefs defense allowing 4.7 YPC, 27th in NFL. However, KC is the only team yet to allow a rushing touchdown (everyone else at least three). Harvin now has 50 total yards or fewer in five straight despite averaging almost six touches in those games. Fortunately, his presence didn't negatively impact Eric Decker, who was targeted 10-plus times for the third time in four games. ... Chiefs, winners of two straight and four of five, are 6-1 at home under Andy Reid. Alex Smith suffered a strained shoulder in the second half versus STL, but "should be fine" according to Reid. Smith averages 10.3 FPPG over his last three games (two under double digits, none over 14) after scoring 17.7 his previous three. That could change with the Jets allowing a league-high 21.4 FPPG to QB. Dwayne Bowe is still without a TD but at least five catches and 64 yards in three of his last four. No. 9 TE Travis Kelce has just 10 catches his last three games combined (no more than four or 45 yards in any), and only one game all year over four catches or six targets. After a miserable start (two points through three games), Jamaal Charles battled all the way back to RB13. Charles has more than 100 total yards and 16-plus fantasy points in three of his last four games (at least 4.3 YPC and 80 rush yards in each), scoring six touchdowns over that stretch. New York's run defense is first in YPC (3.3), second in touchdowns (three) and fifth in yards (85.4 YPG).
Predictions: Charles, whose 25 TD since the start of 2013 lead the NFL, piles on two more to go with 121 total yards. Dwayne Bowe notches his first 100-yard game since Week 4 of 2012 and first touchdown this season. Harvin tallies 69 total yards, Decker scores. Jets rush for 161 yards (53 from Vick, 92 by Ivory) to keep it close, cover. Kansas City, 26-19.
San Diego (+1.5) at Miami, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Chargers turned it over just three times all year before doing so twice against Denver, contributing to their second straight loss. Philip Rivers has three INT and averages 6.35 YPA and 228.5 YPG in those two defeats compared to two, 8.8 and 292.3 his first six games (5-1). SD lost his three worst YPA games (6.6, 6.1, 6.6), winninning when he posts 7.7 or better. Rivers, No. 4 this year, finished sixth in 2013 despite just one 20-point game from Week 5 on (three in first four). With four through six weeks in 2014 but sub-20 his last two, is that theme repeating itself? Keenan Allen finally jumpstarted his campaign by tying season highs in targets (13) and points (13) and scoring his first TD (five in four career games against DEN including playoffs). Reasons for his slow start: a) YAC per reception (2.4, 6.2 last season), b) Rivers spreading it around so well instead of forcing into one guy a la Matthew Stafford, and c) defenses adjusting, not granting him a free release (oddly, at 6-2, 211, Allen is the rare bigger-bodied wideout that doesn't excel against press coverage). With two more TD (scored in four straight games), No. 2 TE Antonio Gates has nine this season -- his most since 2010 and just four shy of career-high 13 in 2004 (only season with more than 10). Ryan Mathews (sprained MCL) could return after missing six games, relegating Branden Oliver to supporting cast. Oliver had just 141 total yards over his last two compared to 306 in the two games prior. His first 12 touches against Denver went for minus-3 yards. ... Winners of three of their last four, Dolphins enter 4-3. After consecutive sub-4.0 games, No. 12 RB Lamar Miller averaged 5.6 YPC against JAX (5.3 or better in four of seven). Miller, tied for the league lead with 22 RZ carries, has at least 99 total yards and/or a TD in six of seven games. Failing to score for the first time in four games, last week was his first less than 12 points since Week 2. A model of consistency, Miller has at least 13 touches (11 carries) every game but no more than 20 (18 rushes) in any. Mike Wallace posted season lows in catches (two) and fantasy points (five) against Jacksonville, snapping a three-game scoring streak. Game flow was a factor, as the Fish led throughout, leading to a season-low 29 attempts by Ryan Tannehill. Keep an eye on Jarvis Landry in deeper leagues, at least three catches in six straight.
Predictions:Lamar Miller pounds out 87 hard-earned yards and a touchdown. Mike Wallace becomes reacquainted with the painted area during a 79-yard day. With carries split almost evenly between Mathews and Oliver, Rivers leads the way with 287 yards and two TD. Keenan Allen manages just 58 yards but scores. Miami continues to play good football, but Chargers avoid a three-game skid. San Diego, 21-17.
Washington (PK) at Minnesota, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: How 'bout them Redskins? Thanks to a 10-minute TOP advantage, Washington upset the Cowboys in Big D as nearly double-digit underdogs with their third-string quarterback at the helm. Colt McCoy afforded Robert Griffin III all the time he needed to heal, completing 85.7 percent of his passes for 10.2 YPA (at least 83.3 and 10.0 in each game). Feast-or-famine No. 14 WR Desean Jackson continues to feast of late, catching a pass of at least 49 yards in three of his last four and four of six (115-plus yards and 13 or more points in each). Pierre Garcon, on the other hand, has no more than 47 yards in four of his last five. Jordan Reed registered at least five catches in all three games since returning, averaging 6.7 per. However, Minnesota's much-improved D is playing terrific (no more than 17 points allowed in last three), ranking fourth against the pass (212.1 YPG) and eighth in total defense (323.8). Alfred Morris, 14th in RB scoring, finally got going in Dallas -- his first game with a TD, double-digit points and 4.0-yard average since Week 4. Still hasn't reached 100 total yards in any game, but Morris' 73 rushing and 85 total yards were his most in six and five games, respectively. ... Outside of Anthony Barr's FF and subsequent return for the game-winning touchdown, Minnesota's offensive line was the story. That group gave up 19 sacks over their previous three games (6.3 per), leading to a 1:7 TD:INT ratio by MIN quarterbacks. Sacked just once on 43 dropbacks, Teddy Bridgewater played mistake-free football after turning it over six times the previous two games. Excluding the GB game, Jerick McKinnon has at least 82 yards and averages 10 FPPG since being inserted into the lineup. McKinnon has been terrific since Week 4, averaging a robust 5.4 YPC (385 yards on 71 carries) during that time but Skins allow fifth-fewest points to opposing RB (11.9 FPPG). Welcome back Cordarrelle Patterson! After just 15 points combined the previous five games, Patterson scored 15 over his last two. He posted season highs in catches (6), targets (12) and receiving yards (86); previous bests 4-8-61.
Predictions:Jordan Reed finally hits paydirt amidst a 77-yard outing. Garcon and D-Jack register similar lines in the 6-75 neighborhood. Alfred Morris totes the rock a season-high 24 times for 96 yards and a TD. Jerick McKinnon scores on a 57-yard scamper en route to his third 100-yard effort in six games. After The Real McCoy led game-winning drives in two straight, RG3 leads one of his own. Washington, 24-23.
St. Louis (+10) at San Francisco, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Comments: What a letdown, lackluster performance. Unfortunately STL lost more than a game (and their dignity), with both Brian Quick (rotator cuff) and Jake Long (ACL, same knee he tore 308 days before) suffering season-ending injuries. Second overall pick Greg Robinson slides out from LG to fill the void on a line that surrendered four-plus sacks in three of its last four games. At WR, expect Kenny Britt -- a more talented player (2009 first-rounder, 6-3, 223, 4.47 40, 10.4 broad jump) -- to capitalize on this opportunity. Worth a flier with Julio Jones, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins, Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson on byes. Chris Givens, Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin are in the mix as well, but I see Britt as the only one capable of emerging from that group as the go-to guy in STL. Austin touched the ball just four times after seven touches each of his two previous games. The backfield is officially a mess with Tre Mason, Benny Cunningham and Zac Stacy each receiving five to eight touches against KC. I want no part of that trio, especially not against the fourth-ranked run defense (84.9 YPG). Not only has Lance Kendricks vultured four TD from him this season, Jared Cook just had his worst game (1-11-0), seeing only three targets for the second week in a row. After catching at least four balls in each of his first five, Cook has four receptions combined the last two weeks. ... Tied with Seattle at 4-3, San Fran trails Arizona by two games in the NFC West. Despite only one 20-point game, No. 14 QB Colin Kaepernick averages 17 FPPG, completing a career-high 63.8 percent of his passes. Rushing touchdowns will come (zero so far), Kaepernick is on pace for a career-high 594 yards on the ground, and he scored nine rushing touchdowns from 2012-13. Michael Crabtree hasn't reached 50 yards in any of his last four games. Crabtree, 42nd in WR scoring with 47 points, has just one more point than Stevie Johnson (44th) and one fewer than Anquan Boldin (40th). No. 26 TE Vernon Davis has been dreadful, scoring just eight points since Week 1. After 4.1 YPC or better in four of the first five, Frank Gore averaged 2.4 yards or less in each of his last two games (25 carries, 58 yards combined: 2.3 YPC). Prior to their week six, Gore averaged 19.8 carries for 87.5 yards in his last four games against St. Louis, scoring a touchdown and double-digit points every game.
Predictions: Gore and Carlos Hyde exploit a tasty matchup against the Rams' 31st-ranked run defense (144.7 YPG), combining for 149 yards and two scores. Colin Kaepernick runs for 41 of his own and his first rushing touchdown to go with 232 passing. Kenny Britt blows up, hauling in six passes for 119 yards and a TD. Rams won Austin Davis' only two turnover-free games; this isn't one of them, Niners win. San Francisco, 23-14.
Denver (-3) at New England, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Broncos ride in with the best record in football at 6-1, winning their last four by an average margin of 18.5 points. They've gained 400-plus total yards in three of those and come away with points on 57 straight RZ possessions. Peyton Manning is 5-10 against Tom Brady all-time, but 5-4 their last nine meetings. On the strength of a 22:3 TD:INT ratio (10:0 in last three), his 90.1 Total QBR is actually better than his 2013 record-breaking season (82.9). Manning has multiple touchdowns every game, three-plus in six of seven and 46 straight games with a TD pass (record 54, Brees). Demaryius Thomas, first in YPG (109.6) and second in FPPG (16), will be tested on Revis Island, but has 626 yards (156.5 per) and five TD his last four games with at least eight catches and 100-plus yards in each. No. 10 WR Emmanuel Sanders exploded for 9-120-3 after 6-75 his previous two games combined, notching his first multi-score game with the hat trick and a second straight with a TD (zero in first five). With four 100-yard games thus far, Sanders is pacing 107-1,449-9, almost double his career highs across the board. Clearly the fourth target in the passing game, Wes Welker goose-egged two of the last three weeks. Julius Thomas, now third in TE scoring, has just six catches for 50 yards on 12 targets (4.2 YPT) combined over his last two. Thomas sees just six targets per with no more than eight in any game this season and the touchdowns are expectedly slowing down, scoreless in back-to-back games after nine in the first five. Ronnie Hillman could've had a monster week if not for two TD called back (a la Percy Harvin) and being vultured twice by Juwan Thompson. Still, Hillman has 100-plus rushing yards in two of three starts and at least 100 YFS in all three (357 total, 119 per). ... Patriots, on a four-game winning streak, have won 13 straight home games overall and their last 41 against AFC teams at Gillette. Tom Brady is 7-2 against Manning at home and coming off his highest TD output since 2009 (career-high six versus TEN), but has to contend with the second- and fifth-leading sackers in football (Von Miller, 9.0, DeMarcus Ware, 7.0). Brady catapulted to eighth in QB scoring after throwing three touchdowns or more three straight weeks (did so three times in previous 26) with at least four in two of those. Rob Gronkowski scored just the second hat trick of his career and first since his rookie year (week 10 of 2010 versus PIT, also did so in divisional playoff against Tebow-led Broncos after 2011 season). His first multi-TD game since 2012 (week 11) vaulted him to his rightful spot as No. 1 TE (95 points). With three monster games in his last five (each 17-plus points), Brandon LaFell (9.2 YPT) is in the process of leap-frogging Julian Edelman (6.8) in the pecking order. Edelman has 44 yards/four points or less in four of his last five. With 17 carries for 86 yards against Chicago, Jonas Gray appears to be the new Stevan Ridley, but received just two touches the week before, is coached by Bill Belichick, and facing Denver's seventh-ranked run defense. Not quite the PPR superstar he once was, Shane Vereen averages just 3.3 receptions with no more than five in any game.
Predictions: Football's greatest rivalry doesn't disappoint, with Manning and Brady trading blows all night like Ali/Frazier. Both finish with 300-plus and three TD. Demaryius Thomas gets the better of Darrelle Revis in a sensational matchup (6-98-1). Arguably the two best TE in football both score. Ronnie Hillman totals 116 yards (84 rushing) against New England's 30th-ranked run defense. After blowing a 24-0 lead in Foxborough last year, Broncos finish this one. Denver, 31-27.
Oakland (+15) at Seattle, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Raiders are losers of 13 straight, their longest skid since 1961-62. Averaging 6.1 YPA, David Carr has one TD or fewer in five of his last six games. However, with just six all year and one turnover or fewer in six of seven games, Oakland has to be pleased with ball security. In 2014, opposing quarterbacks have a 12:3 TD:INT ratio and 7.2 YPA compared to 16:28, 5.8 last year (both best in NFL). Andre Holmes' 13 FPPG (74.5 yards and a touchdown per) since Week 4 are good for top-10 among wide receivers over that span. James Jones averages 5.3 catches on 8.0 targets per game over his last four, but just 59.0 yards on said opportunities. Seattle's pass defense, while ranked 10th (226.6 YPG), is playing nowhere near its 2013 standard, but could get Byron Maxwell (calf) back this week. Quietly, Darren McFadden is running well. Handling 71.4 percent of the backfield's rushing attempts, he has 14-plus touches and double-digit carries in six straight. McFadden averages 4.7 YPC over his last three, registering at least 85 total yards in two of those and 72-plus YFS three of his last four. The numbers aren't eye-popping, but consistent (seven-plus points in four straight). Seattle's seventh-ranked rush defense allows a league-low 3.3 YPC. ... In an eerily similar game to their last two in Carolina, Seattle eked out a 13-9 victory, avoiding a three-game losing streak. Turnovers (or lack thereof) are one reason for their early season struggles, with just seven in as many games, as opposed to a league-high 39 (2.4 per) in 2013. Russell Wilson had a second poor performance in three weeks, scoring 12 points or fewer (11 FPPG) in both compared to at least 17 (25 per game) in five strong showings. Third among quarterbacks with 21 FPPG, Wilson has more 100-yard games than Marshawn Lynch, a top-six RB. Lynch, the league's leading rusher since 2011 with 4,533 yards, has exactly six points in three straight games (14 carries per) after scoring at least 11 each of his first four (19 FPPG). It's pretty clear this offense is preparing for life without him next year, scaling back his workload (15.9 carries/game, 19.2 from 2011-2013) and leaning more on RW (29.6 attempts/game, 25.0 from 2012-2013). Doug Baldwin, clearly the No. 1 with Harvin gone, recorded his two highest totals in catches, yards and targets the past two weeks, averaging 6.5 for 92.0 on 9.5 since the deal.
Predictions: With trade rumors finally in the rearview, Marshawn Lynch plays inspired football, churning out 102 yards and two TD. LOB looks like its 2013 self, suffocating OAK all day and forcing three TO. McFadden manages just 59 total yards but salvages his day by scoring. Hawks dominate but, even at home, too big of a number for this pedestrian offense to cover. Seattle, 27-13.
Baltimore (PK) at Pittsburgh, Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: These division rivals split their last 14 meetings, with 11 decided by a field goal or less. Even though I picked against them, the offensive PI call that cost BAL the game was criminal. No. 13 QB Joe Flacco reverted back to his average self with two INT each of the last two games and a miserable seven points or fewer in two of his last four. Torrey Smith came in rolling with four TD in his last four, but was held without a catch by the Bengals. Averaging a meager 38.5 YPG, Smith exceeded three catches or 53 yards just once in eight games with season highs of four and 81. Although robbed of an 80-yard TD last week, Steve Smith has six points or fewer in three of his last four (10 total in those). Smith recorded just three receptions each of the last two weeks after at least five in every game prior. Justin Forsett's two highest carry totals have coincided with his lowest rushing averages, both coming the last two weeks. Still the eighth highest-scoring RB and more than 4.0 YPC every game, but less may be more with Forsett. His last two are his only with 20-plus touches and have resulted in single-digit fantasy performances (double digits in previous three, 14.7 touches/game in those). With Bernard Pierce a healthy scratch, Lorenzo Taliaferro impressed with 69 total yards and two nice TD runs on just nine touches. John Harbaugh would be wise to use a 60/40 split to maximize the effectiveness of both and minimize wear on Forsett. ... Pittsburgh exploded offensively, netting back-to-back wins for the first time this year. Ben Roethlisberger came up just 32 yards shy of the single-game passing record, becoming the first player in history with two 500-yard games and the second with 500-plus yards and six touchdowns. Big Ben, seventh among quarterbacks, threw as many TD in the first half (four) as he had in the previous four games combined. Oddly enough, that was just his second game over 16 points. His 44 points were easily the best performance of 2014 and five more than his prior three combined (39). Top fantasy wideout Antonio Brown caught his first touchdowns since Week 4 and tied his season high 25 points. With at least five catches and 80 yards every week, Brown is one away from tying Michael Irvin for most such games to start a season. That was Brown's third multi-score and 21-plus point game of 2014. PIT averages 475.5 YPG since inserting the uber-talented Martavis Bryant into the lineup. Bryant, three TD in two games, gives Roethlisberger the "Mike Wallace type" deep threat he's been missing, completely opening up the offense. Le'Veon Bell extended his 100-YFS streak to eight; imagine how good he'd be if he ever reached the end zone. Bell is fourth in RB scoring despite scoring just once in seven games, twice all season.
Predictions: Bell tallies 119 total yards and rushes for a TD for the first time since Week 1. With Jimmy Smith sidelined (sprained foot), Brown extends his NFL record to 25 games and ties Irvin's mark with 7-107. Both quarterbacks post 15 points or fewer. Steelers avoid giving Baltimore the tiebreaker, avenging their Week 2 blowout loss. Pittsburgh 23-20.
Indianapolis (-3) at New York Giants, Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Colts held opponents scoreless for 88 straight minutes before that Markus Wheaton TD broke the seal, igniting a 51-point eruption that snapped Indy's five-game win/cover streak. Obviously not the entire reason, but losing Vontae Davis-tied for league lead with 12 passes defended through Week 7 -- less than ideal. With his first 400-yard game and sixth three-TD game, Andrew Luck overtook Peyton Manning for top fantasy QB (23.9 FPPG). Luck broke a tie with Manning by throwing for 300-plus yards in a franchise-record six straight (seven of eight overall). He's had more than 18 points in every game, 20 in six. Quick, who leads the league in receiving yards? That would be T.Y. Hilton, thanks to 100-yard games in three straight and four of five. Hilton, fifth in WR scoring, has touchdowns in two of his last three after entering Week 6 with zero. Colts are hopeful Reggie Wayne (elbow) plays, but with the game Monday owners need a backup plan in place. With the emergence of Donte Moncrief, I'd be shocked if Hakeem Nicks starts another game (foolish to bet on himself with one-year deal). Entering the game with 9-103-0, Moncrief posted 7-113-1 on 12 targets, earning a spot (Nicks') in the lineup ROS. No. 7 TE Dwayne Allen scored for the sixth time in eight weeks on just 22 catches (unsustainable), but still no more than four receptions in any and just 2.75 per game. Another touchdown-dependent player, Ahmad Bradshaw, is a top-five RB despite just 76 carries and zero games of 100 total yards. Bradshaw has two separate three-game scoring streaks and eight TD overall, but clearly a sell-high. Trent Richardson, active as an emergency RB last week, should return to normal duties. ... The news for Rashad Jennings (MCL), however, is not so bright. Expected to return following the bye, Jennings just resumed straight-line running Monday and probably is still a week or two out. Backup Andre Williams averages 3.1 YPC with just one game over 3.5. Despite at least 17 carries in each, Williams has been held to 65 yards or less in three starts. Any chance doctors will re-examine David Wilson? Although no more than four catches or 44 yards in any and averaging just five targets per game, Odell Beckham Jr. has three touchdowns in as many weeks. Still can't understand why Rueben Randle is such a target monster (nine-plus in four straight, at least four catches every game since Week 2) considering the inefficiency -- 5.5 YPT, 9.4 YPC. Although the Giants have lost two straight, Eli Manning has played mistake-free football with zero turnovers in three straight and four of five. In those five, Manning posted an 11:1 TD:INT ratio, completing 63 percent of his passes and a passer rating of 104.0 or better four times. He's coming off his second three-TD, 20-point game and thrown multiple touchdowns in five of six, facing a defense that Big Ben just obliterated for 522 yards.
Predictions:Andrew Luck passes for 291 yards and two TD. Trent Richardson scores from the GL. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara contain Hilton (64 yards). Odell Beckham roasts Greg Toler for a 61-yard touchdown. Andre Williams does nothing on the ground again, rushing for 54 yards on 18 carries. Colts rebound, improving to 27-14 ATS since Luck took over in 2012. Indianapolis, 27-20.
