This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Bye: Houston, Indianapolis, Minnesota, New England, San Diego, Washington
Stat of the Week: Packers have been involved in two of the only three games in NFL history to not feature a single punt (both this season: Week 4 vs. CHI, Week 8 vs. NO)
Cleveland (+6) at Cincinnati, Thursday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: After eking out a 22-17 victory over TB, Cleveland has won two straight and four of five, securing their first 5-3 start since 2007. Ben Tate continues to struggle with plummeting YPC (5.6, 3.1, 2.3, 1.7, 0.3), and touchdowns couldn't salvage his day as they had two of the previous three weeks. Good news: it can't go any lower. Bad news: his job is no longer secure. With Tate averaging 3.3 per carry and no longer entrenched as starter, we have a potential three-headed monster with Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell also in the mix. Although better than his teammate, West (15-48) by no means seized the feature role and averages just 3.7 YPC. Although inactive Week 9, Crowell, the No. 4 overall recruit and top-ranked RB coming out of HS, is probably the most talented player in that backfield (4.9 YPC) and the only potentially three-down back. This is the week we should see the Browns' regain some steam (4.4 YPC with Alex Mack, 1.9 without) against Cincy's 30th-ranked run defense (139.6 YPG). Yet to clear concussion protocol, Jordan Cameron was ruled out for Week 10 Wednesday. Brian Hoyer notched his first 300-yard passing game against Tampa, just his second all season with multiple TD. Despite seeing at least eight targets in all but one game, Andrew Hawkins has three catches or fewer and no more than 35 yards in three of his last five. ... AFC North-leading Bengals won two straight following their three-game winless streak. A season removed from three 30-point efforts and at least 24 in two others, Andy Dalton has zero 20-point games. Although he's had at least two turnovers in three of his last four, Dalton threw two TD in four of his last five games. Mohamed Sanu proved more than just an A.J. Green fill-in with 4-95-1 on seven targets. With similar role/value to 2013 Marvin Jones, Sanu has at least 13 points in four of his last five. Green, who's scored double-digit points in every game he's finished, looked solid in his return playing 40 of 69 snaps (actually scored twice but one called back for lining up offsides). However, after scoring in double figures each of his first four games versus CLE, Joe Haden held him to just 58 yards on nine catches combined in two matchups last season. Giovani Bernard (hip) likely to sit again considering the four-day turnaround. Jeremy Hill, sensational in his stead (24-152-2), is a top-10 play with Cleveland tied for 30th against the run at 139.6 YPG allowed. Although unlikely to play, stash Tyler Eifert now as he's eligible to come off IR any time.
Predictions: Browns go with hot hand at RB, which turns out to be Isaiah Crowell, but none of the three top 60 total yards. Hoyer is forced out of his game manager role and turns it over twice for the second straight week (third time in last four). A.J. Green is held in check by Haden for a third straight time; but finds the endzone in an otherwise frustrating day. Jeremy Hill rushes for 81 yards and a touch. Bengals remain unbeaten at home and cover. Cincinnati, 24-16.
Kansas City (-1.5) at Buffalo, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Chiefs are rolling, having won three straight and five of their last six. These teams met last year in Buffalo as well with KC emerging victorious, pushing their record to 9-0. Alex Smith recorded his first multi-TD game since Week 4, but hasn't topped 15 points since then, a span of four games. Doubtful that changes with Buffalo second in sacks (28) and tied for third-fewest points allowed to opposing QB (13.1 FPPG). Dwayne Bowe, who caught his 500th career pass against the Jets, has 11-plus PPR points in three straight and four of five (at least five catches, 55 yards in each) but zero touchdowns this season. Travis Kelce scored for the first time in three games; 67 yards and 12 points were his most in four games, catching exactly four balls in three straight. By scoring a TD and at least 14 points in three straight and four of his last five, Jamaal Charles vaulted back into the top-10. Charles has 84-plus total yards in each of his last five, averaging 17.2 FPPG over that span. Not only is Marcell Dareus leading all defensive tackles with 7.0 sacks, he spearheads the eighth-ranked run defense (92.3 YPG)-but Charles reclaimed matchup-proof status weeks ago. ... Bills also come in hot with wins in two straight and three of four before the bye. Kyle Orton nearly matched previous three games' TD total (five) with four against NYJ. His 14.0 YPA bumped him to 8.0 for the season. Switching to Orton couldn't have gone better but things get hairy this week: Chiefs top-ranked pass defense allows just 199.4 YPG (fifth in total defense, 315.5 YPG, second in scoring, 17.4 PPG). Sammy Watkins, 14th in WR scoring, recorded 12-279-3 on 20 targets his past two weeks, netting at least 122 yards and 21 points (45 total) in each. If he weren't watching the Jumbotron, Watkins would've scored twice in both games; but became just the seventh rookie WR since 1960 with consecutive 20-point games nonetheless (most recent: Randy Moss). His longest catch through seven games was 30 yards but busted off two of 60-plus versus NY. Although Anthony Dixon started, he was dreadful (2.0 YPC) and Bryce Brown is the superior player with higher upside. Like any position battle, it won't be long before talent wins out.
Predictions:Jamaal Charles gives the usual 113 total yards and a touchdown. Alex Smith finally gets Bowe into the endzone for his only TD. With the NFL's leading sacker (by three at 12.0), Justin Houston, wreaking havoc, Kyle Orton turns it over twice for the third time in four games. With Sammy Watkins sidelined (tweaked groin Wednesday), Robert Woods catches five for 67 yards. With Fred Jackson still a week out despite practicing, carries split almost evenly between Dixon and Brown. Kansas City, 23-17.
Tennessee (+10) at Baltimore, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Titans' season all but over having lost two straight and six of seven since an opening-day victory in KC. With that in mind, Ken Whisenhunt will stick with Zach Mettenburger-he may not give them the best chance to win but they need to find out what they have there as it's quite clear Jake Locker is not the future. Numbers in his first start were deceiving (299 yards, 65.9-percent, 7.3 YPA, 2:1 TD:INT ratio) considering his poor play, much of that production coming in garbage time. Justin Hunter averaged 18.5 yards his last two games after 88.0 the previous two. Kendall Wright has three TD and two games of 12-plus points over his last four. The way to attack Baltimore is through the air, 24th-ranked against the pass allowing 263.2 YPG. Bishop Sankey, under 4.0 YPC in four straight, hovered around 60 total yards in his last three (all starts) despite getting at least 13 touches in each. The rookie's production will come around at some point, but not this week; Ravens allow just 86.4 rushing YPG (sixth) and an NFL-best 10.4 FPPG to RB. ... Baltimore limps into this week losers of their last two following a 5-2 start. Joe Flacco, top-10 in QB scoring, has multiple touchdowns in three of his last four, with nine total and at least 14 points in those three. No. 25 WR Torrey Smith has been the Ravens' best fantasy receiver for over a month, outscoring Steve Smith in four of their last five games. Torrey has 12-plus points in three of his last four, scoring four touchdowns and 43 points during that span despite the other being a goose egg. Steve Smith has six points or fewer in three straight (at least eight targets in two of those) and four of five since reaching double-digits three times in September. You could do worse than No. 13 TE Owen Daniels (at least 11 PPR points two weeks in a row) as a fill-in with Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, Jordan Reed, and Dwayne Allen all on bye. Although still inside the top 10, Justin Forsett hasn't scored a TD in four straight (did so in two games prior) or reached double digits in his last three (11-plus in three preceding games). Even though his three lowest per-carry averages have come the past three weeks, each of those were 4.0 YPC or better and Forsett has at least 12 touches in every game this year (14 or more in four straight). With Lorenzo Taliferro committing typical rookie mistakes (fumbling, struggling in short yardage, missing holes), there is little chance of Forsett losing his stranglehold on the feature role despite the recent dip.
Predictions:Bishop Sankey manages just 54 yards on 16 carries against Haloti Ngata and company. Mettenburger, under siege all day, is sacked twice by Terrell Suggs during a two-INT day. Justin Hunter hauls in three for 71 and the rookie's only TD. Joe Flacco passes for 259 yards and touchdowns to Steve Smith and Owen Daniels. Forsett tallies 117 YFS against Tennessee's 28th-ranked run defense (134.8 YPG). Bounce-back performance from Ravens, Titans backdoor cover. Baltimore, 22-13.
Dallas (-6) at Jacksonville, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST in London
Comments: Cowboys fell twice in six days after losing just once in nearly two months. Brandon Weeden reverted back to...well, Brandon Weeden. After 11.5 YPA in relief of Tony Romo against Washington, Weeden struggled, turning it over twice and completing 54.5-percent with 5.5 YPA. Despite playing the lowly Jaguars and an upcoming bye, Romo (back) could play; Bryce Petty missed one game with the same injury (two fractures in transverse process) and DAL needs this win to regain momentum and keep pace. Dez Bryant "saved" his garbage day with a garbage-time TD, but there is cause for concern. Not only did Bryant not catch a pass until that final drive, Patrick Peterson dominated throughout. Still top-10 in WR scoring, but he's come up short of double digits in two straight and three of four (including no more than three catches or 30 yards either of past two weeks). Terrance Williams, now 18th among wide receivers, predictably cooled after that hot start with no more than seven points in four straight, culminating with a season-low one point last week. After six TD his first seven games, Williams hasn't scored in back-to-back weeks and two receptions or fewer in four of his last five. Finally picking up, Jason Witten registered at least five catches and 62 yards (11-132 total) the last two weeks after 4-51 combined the prior two. With 79 (90 total), DeMarco Murray was held under 100 yards rushing for the first time but remains the top-scoring RB. His 1,133 yards are 12 more than all of last season and have him on pace for 2,014. ... Jacksonville may be 1-8, but no longer the doormat and guaranteed victory they once were. Jags have allowed just three offensive touchdowns the past four weeks and been competitive since the start of October. Blake Bortles leads the league in pick-sixes, interceptions, and turnovers, but only turned it over once last week after doing so three times each of the previous two. His 7.5 YPA and two TD were his most since Week 3 (first game). Despite being just the ninth rookie WR (first since Anquan Boldin, 2004) with multiple games of 23-plus points, don't chase the points with Allen Hurns. Four of his five TD, 222 of 466 yards, and 46 of 72 points came in those two (both 100-yard, two-TD games; his only two over 68 yards), everything in between was garbage. Allen Robinson is the only JAX wideout worth owning-at least four catches in eight straight. Jaguars just might have something in Denard Robinson; even I can't keep calling it fool's gold at this point. Robinson was just six yards short of three straight 100-yard rushing games but has 329 (109.7 per) during that span with at least 5.5 YPC and 104 total yards in each. Robinson averages 5.0 YPC and Cowboys allow 4.6 per rush, 27th in NFL.
Predictions:Dez Bryant finally arises from his slumber with 124 yards and two TD. After just 19 carries in consecutive weeks, Murray totes the rock 25 times for 131 yards and scores. Allen Robinson catches six for 89, Denard Robinson totals 93 yards. Understandable line considering uncertain Romo status/recent struggles, but Cowboy win/cover seems almost too obvious giving less than a touchdown. Dallas, 26-17.
Miami (+3) at Detroit, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: This game features two of the hottest teams in football, with both soaring in on three-game winning streaks. Having also won four of their last five, 5-3 Dolphins firmly in the playoff hunt. A big part of this run being the play of Ryan Tannehill, who was phenomenal against SD. Those 288 yards and three TD were season highs and at least 47 rushing yards in four straight. Tannehill has 17-plus points in four of five after scoring 13 or fewer his first three games. Mike Wallace failed to score in either of the last two games after touchdowns in three straight and five of his first six. Wallace, who averaged 10.3 through six games, totaled just 10 points combined these last two (five in each). If Lamar Miller (sprained AC joint but practicing) is inactive or aggravates the injury, it would leave them with Daniel Thomas. Detroit stops the run with ease anyway (second in YPC (3.3) and YPG (74.0) allowed) but Miami needs a threat back there to keep them honest. Miller, 10th among running backs thanks to five TD in past five games, scored double-digit points in five of his last six (one exception was nine) and six of eight overall. If you're searching for a TE, Charles Clay has 15-plus PPR points in two of his last three. ... In the sort of game they historically lose, Lions fought back from 21 down in London to defeat ATL for their fifth win in six games. Matthew Stafford recorded his first 300-yard game since Week 1, but still hasn't thrown three TD in any game. With Calvin Johnson expected back, Stafford is a top-10 QB (at least) ROS. Reports have Johnson practicing all week and close to one hundred percent. In the first three games, when Megatron wasn't a decoy, he netted at least six catches in each and 329 yards (109.7 per). A la Mohamed Sanu, No. 10 WR Golden Tate filled in admirably with at least 116 yards in four of those five games, including two straight over 150. Joique Bell averaged just 43.5 yards rushing on 2.7 YPC with Reggie Bush inactive the past two games. Amazing to think a 6-2 team is getting significantly better at the midway point, but Bush adds another dimension to that offense. With their two best playmakers returning, look for the Lions to reclaim their place as a top-five offense.
Predictions: Stafford tops 20 points for just the third time, first since Week 4. Calvin Johnson makes his presence felt with 133 yards and two TD. Bush accounts for 97 YFS and scores. With Nick Fairley out and the Lions' front suddenly fallible, Lamar Miller rushes for 76 yards and a touch on 15 carries. All of a sudden one of the most complete teams in football, Lions come out swinging and cover. Watch out for DET if they get home-field advantage (darkhorse SB contender?). Detroit, 28-20.
San Francisco (+4.5) at New Orleans, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Certainly one of the more entertaining finishes of 2014 but inexcusable for San Fran to lose that game given the circumstances. The 4-4 'Niners will be kicking themselves all offseason if they come up one game short of a playoff berth. No. 14 QB Colin Kaepernick has no more than 13 points in consecutive games and three of his last four. Obviously quarterback plays a part in getting sacked eight times, but that O-line needs to better protect him. Fortunately, Saints registered just 12 sacks thus far (28th in NFL) and rank 27th against the pass (268.4 YPG). Held under 50 yards in five straight and scoring just once during that time, Michael Crabtree is dangerously close to being droppable. Maybe there's just too many weapons on that offense-Anquan Boldin, Stevie Johnson, and Brandon Lloyd account for 10 thousand-yard seasons between them-but he's been horribly inefficient (6.0 YPT as opposed to 8.7 in 2012) with similar volume (7.5 targets, 7.9 in 2012). Boldin caught at least six passes in three straight and four or more in each of his last six. With just nine points since Week 2, maybe it's time I stop advocating Vernon Davis as a buy-low. Frank Gore averages a mere 38.7 total YPG over his last three (116 total) with no more than 58 in any game and zero touchdowns over that span. It's not just him: Carlos Hyde has 60 total yards during that time. Suprisingly, New Orleans boasts a top-10 run defense (102.1 YPG). ... Saints snapped a seven-game skid on the road with Thursday's victory in Carolina. New Orleans has won 11 straight at home, averaging 34 PPG and giving up just 17 with a plus-six turnover differential during that streak. Drew Brees has at least 293 yards in seven of eight and 15-plus points in every game, but just two 20-point performances and none over 24. After averaging 42.7 touchdowns the last three seasons (no fewer than 39 in any) and at least 33 in six straight, he's on pace for just 30 in 2014. However, Brees has a TD pass in 41 straight at home (record: Tom Brady, 44) and 89 in 27 regular-season home games since 2011 (3.3 per, most in NFL). Jimmy Graham has 25 points his last two games (at least 11 in both) after just three combined the previous two. Brandin Cooks has 38 yards or fewer in two of his last three and no more than 56 in four of five. Mark Ingram became the first Saint with back-to-back 100-yard efforts since Deuce McAllister in 2006 after just one in his first 40 career games. With the two highest carry totals of his career, Ingram has 23 points in two straight. Ingram scored six TD in five games and 16-plus points in four of those five.
Predictions: With little help from the running game, Kaepernick passes for 289 yards and runs for 41 more, accounting for three TD. San Fran's fifth-ranked run defense limits Ingram to 51 yards on 16 carries. Brees throws his third RZ interception of 2014 (one in previous two seasons), making it seven of nine games with at least one pick. Marques Colston scores for the first time in six games, Jimmy Graham in a third straight. 'Niners avenge their 23-20 loss in NO last season. San Francisco, 27-24.
Pittsburgh (-5) at NY Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Steelers, winners of three straight after alternating wins/losses in first six weeks, beat the Jets each of the last two seasons (19-6 in 2013, 27-10 in 2012). With 79 total points the past two weeks, Ben Roethlisberger shattered Michael Vick's record (74 in 2010) for best two-game stretch by a QB since 1960. He's the first in NFL history with six TD in back-to-back weeks and those 12 are the most passing touchdowns in a two-game span all-time (10 in first seven games combined). Roethlisberger averaged 431 YPG in those two after 265.4 through seven games. And, oh by the way, NYJ allow a league-worst 20.7 FPPG to opposing QB. Antonio Brown continues to state his case as the best receiver in football with his two highest yardage totals (133, 144) coming these last two weeks. The top-scoring fantasy wideout (150 points, 16.7 per) scored four touchdowns (one passing) the past three games after zero his previous two. I'm glad Martavis Bryant has proven my sanity (I was advocating him as a first-round pick in May's draft) with five TD in his first 10 receptions as a pro. Bryant, whose 22.2 career YPC at Clemson broke Herman Moore's NCAA record, scored twice in consecutive weeks and at least once in all three games played. His 46 points are tied with Anquan Boldin for second-best receiver total in first three NFL games; only Roy Williams (50) had more. No. 4 RB Le'Veon Bell failed to top 100 YFS for the first time this season. His 58 total yards were his fewest since the fourth game of his rookie year, but the 10 touches and 15 carries were career lows. NYJ seventh against the run (88.4 YPG) and limited Bell to just 56 total yards, 2.1 YPC in last year's meeting. ... Considering the Jets have lost eight in a row, Pittsburgh will be a popular pick for those left in Survivor pools. That was how I envisioned the offense looking with Michael Vick at QB and Chris Johnson in the backfield the majority of Week 9. Johnson was impressive amassing a season-high 101 YFS, the second time in three weeks with at least 80. Game flow was the primary reason for Chris Ivory's limited usage, but the gap is closing between the two runners (4.6 YPC to 4.3). Eric Decker scored his first TD in three games while posting a season-best nine catches. Decker has 30 catches over his last five (10 total in first three) and at least four receptions in five straight and seven of eight games this year. Percy Harvin averages 11 targets per game since joining the Jets, a big reason for his most receiving yards (129) and catches (11) since Week 6 of 2012 and total yards (137) since Week 13 of 2011.
Predictions:Ben Roethlisberger cools slightly (how could he not?), passing for 286 yards and two TD. Le'Veon Bell totals 101 yards (56 receiving), scoring via run and pass. Antonio Brown corals seven passes for 90 yards. Ivory and Johnson split carries somewhat evenly, combining with Vick for 148 on the ground. Decker secures six of nine targets for 71 yards and a touchdown. Harvin accounts for 129 all-purpose yards. Steelers beat Jets by two scores for third straight year. Pittsburgh, 24-14.
Atlanta (-1) at Tampa Bay, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Hard to imagine Mike Smith being retained as Falcons have dropped five in a row for their second straight 2-6 start (8-0 in 2012). Having not exceeded 15 points in four straight weeks, Matt Ryan continues to plummet down the QB ranks (13th). He has just one TD in three of his last four and committed at least one turnover in five straight games. Tampa's 31st-ranked pass defense (285.3 YPG) presents an opportunity for Ryan to turn things around. The bye couldn't have come at a better time for Julio Jones with his three worst performances coming the last three games. Jones caught five passes or fewer (at least six in first five) for no more than 68 yards (82-plus in all others) in each game, averaging just 4.3 catches for 60.7 YPG (zero TD) over that stretch compared to 8.0, 110.4 in the other five. With six points or less in three straight and no more than eight in four of his last five, he's due. Plus, Jones historically kills the Bucs with 555 yards and five TD in five career games. Steven Jackson established or tied season highs with 60 rushing yards, 18 touches, and 12 points against Detroit, but is completely touchdown-dependent with little-to-no upside and averages 3.6 YPC. ... After another close loss, Tampa is now in player-evaluation mode the rest of the way. Although the perplexing move back to Josh McCown appears senseless, it's actually brilliant. Lovie Smith is clearly tanking, hoping to land the No. 1 overall pick in order to draft Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston (I just can't fathom any other motive). Mike Glennon wasn't spectacular but interestingly played better as the game progressed, particularly in crunch time (107.1 rating, 7.5 YPA, 5:0 TD:INT ratio in fourth quarter). His yards by quarter in 2014, first to fourth: 164, 301, 417, 525 (per Scott Pianowski). McCown averages 6.2 YPA with a 2:4 TD:INT ratio and 65.8 passer rating this season. Mike Evans posted his first career multi-score and 100-yard game with 7-124-2 against CLE, giving him at least 50 yards in five straight and four receptions or more every game this year. Vincent Jackson has 12-plus targets and at least 66 yards in three of his last four, but 51 yards or less in all others and just one game this season over four catches. Bobby Rainey has 400 total yards in his three starts (133.3 per) with at least 105 YFS in each. Expect Rainey to start with rookie Charles Sims operating as the change-of-pace back and Doug Martin non-existent. Both should play well, no defense allows more points to opposing RB than ATL (25.0 FPPG).
Predictions:Matt Ryan passes for 334 yards and three TD. Julio Jones' foot issue is a thing of the past as he comes back rejuvenated, hauling eight balls for 156 yards and two touchdowns. Rainey and Sims combine for 134 scrimmage yards and a TD. Mike Evans comes back down to earth, Jackson finishes with 78 yards and scores. Falcons win for the first time in six games. Atlanta, 27-23.
Denver (-11.5) at Oakland, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Comments: Coming off a 43-21 defeat at the hands of NE, their worst regular-season loss in the Peyton Manning era, Broncos will take out their frustrations on the winless Raiders. Manning failed to join Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks in history 100-plus games over .500 but should reach that mark before season's end. He is 14-1, including playoffs, against AFC West clubs as a Bronco. Manning was leap-frogged by Andrew Luck again for the No. 1 spot, but is the only quarterback with 20-plus points every game. No. 2 WR Demaryius Thomas extended his franchise record by topping the century mark in a fifth straight, averaging 150.6 YPG over that stretch. Emmanuel Sanders, seventh in WR scoring, scored in double figures three straight weeks (55 points total) and six of seven. Thanks to 100-plus in two straight and five of his last seven games, Sanders already topped his previous career high in receiving yards. Julius Thomas scored for the first time in three games but has just eight catches during that time and 33 yards or fewer in all three. Wes Welker will play, but caught just nine passes for 94 yards in the past four games combined with no more than three catches in any. Ronnie Hillman, 21st in RB scoring despite starting just four games, scored at least 11 points in every start and averages 15.3 FPPG since being inserted into the lineup. Hillman has four TD in those four and Raiders allow second-most points to opposing RB (22.1). ... Even at 0-8, Oakland deserves credit for battling back and making a game of it in Seattle, they easily could've quit fighting and gone in the tank. Derek Carr has 11 or fewer points in four of his last six and only one game over 15 this season. However, Carr has no more than two turnovers in any game and just eight in as many games. He won't have much time to throw with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, maybe the best pass-rushing duo in football with 17 sacks between them, on the other side. James Jones has just 10 total points the past three games and Andre Holmes scored three points or fewer in two of those; hard to trust either with Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and Bradley Roby on the docket. With Although Darren McFadden has been serviceable with at least 65 total yards in six of seven starts, don't start him if you can avoid it; Denver's top-ranked run defense allows just 71.6 YPG and 3.3 YPC (third). After just seven points his first six games and one point or fewer in five of those, Mychal Rivera has 23 the past two weeks with at least seven catches and 15 PPR points in each.
Predictions:Peyton Manning scores at least 20 points for an 11th straight game, one shy of Aaron Rodgers' record (12 in 2011). Demaryius Thomas notches his sixth straight 100-yard game with 114. He, Julius Thomas, and Emmanuel Sanders all catch touchdowns. Ronnie Hillman rushes for 81 yards and a touch, adding 39 receiving to eclipse 100 total yards for the fourth time in five games. DMC scores the only Raider touchdown, Broncos bounce back strong. Denver, 34-13.
NY Giants (+9.5) at Seattle, 4:25pm EST Sunday
Comments: Giants, in serious danger of missing the playoffs for the fifth time in six years, face a short week coming off another ugly loss, which wasn't nearly as competitive as the 40-24 score suggests. When the G-Men lose, they get crushed: outscored by 85 points in five losses, an average of 17.0 per game. Oddly, every game they've played was decided by double figures; sandwiched in between all that awful play was an impressive three-game winning streak. Eli Manning has thrown at least two TD in every home game but been hit-or-miss on the road (seven TD versus WAS/DAL, one against DET/PHI). 12th in QB scoring, Manning scored 21-plus in two straight and at least 15 in six of seven since Week 2. Odell Beckham has been sensational with double-digit points in three of four games and 10.1 YPT overall. Rueben Randle, on the other hand, is terrible. He's done next to nothing (5.4 YPT) with huge volume-at least nine targets in six straight and four-plus receptions his last seven. Randle is horribly inefficient and flat out doesn't win one-on-one battles. Like his teammate, Andre Williams has been awful with just one game over 3.5 YPC and a 3.0-yard average this season. Rashad Jennings (MCL, still not practicing) couldn't come back soon enough. Seahawks, fourth against the run (83.0 YPG), allow an NFL-best 3.2 YPC. ... Seattle shut out the Giants 23-0 at the Meadowlands in Week 15 last season, but is far from the dominant club they were then. Pass defense being the main reason (14 pass TD allowed already, 16 all of 2013), the 'Hawks have 11 fewer takeaways and 15 fewer sacks than through eight games last year. However, they are trending in the right direction, forcing five of their 10 turnovers the past two games (go figure, 2-0). Marshawn Lynch, fifth in RB scoring, dropped 25 points (143 YFS, two TD) on OAK after just 18 his previous three games combined (197 total yards, zero TD). He is clearly the key to their success: SEA 3-0 when Lynch carries 20 times or more (all five rush TD scored in those games), 5-1 when he does so at least 14 times. His 47 TD since 2011 are tops in the league, three others tied with 41. No. 6 QB Russell Wilson is struggling mightily the past month with 12 points or fewer in three of his last four, failing to score a TD for the first time last week. Volume isn't the issue as Wilson already has as many games of 30 attempts or more (four) as he had all of last season. Doug Baldwin's catches, targets, yards and fantasy points have declined in three straight weeks. Already without Walter Thurmond, NY will be down another corner with Prince Amukamara requiring season-ending surgery for his torn biceps, but Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie should have little trouble with Baldwin and the rest of Seattle's pedestrian receivers.
Predictions:Marshawn Lynch totes the rock 22 times for 111 yards and a touchdown. Wilson rebounds with 261 yards (45 rushing) and two TD. After picking off his first pass last week, Richard Sherman grabs another while blanketing Randle. Beckham scores during a 77-yard day. Andre Williams is suffocated by Seahawks' front seven, managing a paltry 44 yards on 17 attempts (2.6 YPC). LOB leads the way, forcing three turnovers. Seattle 27-21.
St. Louis (+7) at Arizona, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Lady luck was with them last week during that QB sneak but give the Rams credit for hanging in there all day, giving themselves a chance late. They've won two of their last three since a 1-4 start. The market has corrected for Austin Davis, who's thrown for 160 yards or less in three straight. Davis has just one TD in consecutive games (and three of four), scoring eight points or fewer in each (12 total). De facto No. 1 receiver Kenny Britt scored his second touchdown, but three catches or less in seven of eight and no more than seven targets in any game. Looking more and more like a top-10 bust (a la Ted Ginn), Tavon Austin hasn't topped 25 total yards in three straight. With Patrick Peterson finally playing up to his paycheck and Antonio Cromartie finding his former All-Pro self, don't expect much from either this week. Tre Mason seems to have emerged as the featured back in St. Louis with Bennie Cunningham working as the third-down back and Zac Stacy getting no touches, but Arizona is third in rushing yards (79.6) and fourth in YPC (3.4) allowed. ... Winners of 14 of their last 17, Arizona is the only one-loss team remaining. Along with Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer is one of two players to throw at least two TD in every game. Averaging 37.6 attempts with at least 31 each week, he's one of just three quarterbacks (Luck, Manning) with 16-plus points in every start. At 18.8 FPPG, Palmer is sixth among QB on a per-game basis. Rams D-line woke up last week, sacking Kaepernick eight times (6.0 entering Week 9, fewest in NFL). Larry Fitzgerald has at least five catches and 70 yards in three of his last four games but more than six targets just once in those four. Very hit or miss, Michael Floyd has four games of three or fewer points (including two zeros) to go along with four double-digit performances. However, it's been consistent misses lately with just 12 catches for 137 yards (27.4 per) over the past five games. No. 7 RB Andre Ellington has 12-plus points in three straight and four of five, with 45 points the last three (15.0 FPPG) and 79 over those five (15.8 per).
Predictions:Robert Quinn forces his 10th fumble since the start of last season (most in NFL) to set up the Rams' only touchdown, Jared Cook's first of 2014. Carson Palmer throws touchdowns to Floyd and Fitzgerald to go along with 276 yards. Ellington tallies 134 yards during his first 100-yard rushing day. Cardinals dominate throughout, improving to 8-1 and covering in the process. Arizona 23-13.
Chicago (+7.5) at Green Bay, Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: One of the more disappointing teams of 2014, Chicago is in the NFC North basement at 3-5. Fortunately, this game isn't being played at Soldier Field where they are 0-3 (3-2 road record). Last time we saw them, the Bears surrendered a franchise-worst 38 first-half points to NE and Lamarr Houston joined Stephen Tulloch in the "tore his ACL celebrating a sack" club. Jay Cutler, 9th in QB scoring, has exactly 21 points in three of his last four after his first multi-score game in his last three and first three-TD game since Week 2. However, Cutler is 5-11 his last 16 starts and only Blake Bortles has more turnovers this year (five multi-TO games). Green Bay's ninth-ranked pass defense allows just 225.8 YPG and Cutler threw for 227 yards or fewer each of his last two games (289 or more in two prior). With just 384 yards on 66 targets, Brandon Marshall is averaging a pathetic 5.8 YPT and 48.0 YPG, putting him on pace for 768 (would be fewest since rookie year, seven straight 1,000-yard seasons). Marshall has four points or less in three of his last four and no touchdowns since Week 4, just one since Week 2. Oddly enough, Alshon Jeffery has fewer points than Allen Hurns this season, but scored his first TD in three games and reached double figures in five of his last six. No. 3 RB Matt Forte, one of the few first-rounders to deliver, has four straight 20-point games and 16-plus his last five. With at least 157 YFS in five of eight games, Forte averages 131.5 total YPG (70.25 rushing, 61.25 receiving). GB gave up 172 yards to Mark Ingram their last time out and ranks dead last against the run (153.5 YPG). ... Week 8 in NO was Aaron Rodgers' first 400-yard game in a losing effort. That was his first 400-yard performance since Week 2 of 2013 and first over 300 in his last four, but Rodgers committed his first turnover since Week 2 with two INT (just one in first seven). Rodgers' streaks of four straight games with at least three TD and no interceptions (tied for longest in NFL history: Brady, Manning) and 213 passes without a pick (second longest in GB history, Bart Starr 294) ended. No. 4 WR Randall Cobb and No. 6 Jordy Nelson caught 15 of his 19 TD passes to this point. Nelson failed to score for the first time in five weeks during his worst game all year while Cobb scored in a fifth straight (six during span) and seven of eight overall. Cobb reached the century mark in consecutive games and three of his last five thanks to a career-long 70-yard bomb. His nine receiving TD (seven in RZ) already are a career best. Eddie Lacy established career highs in total yardage (182), catches (eight), and receiving yards (123) against NO (previous bests: 171, 6, 48). Pack scored at least 33 points each of their last two games against Chicago, who allow 27.8 per game (29th in NFL).
Predictions: Rodgers hits Nelson for a 75-yard scoring strike, his 16th of at least 70 yards (most in team history), during a 322-yard, three-TD day. Eddie Lacy rushes for 78 yards and hits paydirt. Jay Cutler throws for 317 yards and touchdowns to Marshall and Jeffery (both over 75 yards). The uncontainable Matt Forte finishes with 131 YFS and a touch. Bears put up a fight but Packers sweep the season series. Green Bay, 31-27.
Carolina (+6) at Philadelphia, Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Panthers have won just once in their past seven games (1-5-1) following a surprise 2-0 start. Cam Newton committed two turnovers each of his last two games-his two lowest passing totals of 2014 (151, 171)-with one TD or fewer in three straight (just 30 total points in those three). Newton has fewer points than Ryan Fitzpatrick, but not all bad news: at least seven rushes in four straight with over 40 yards in three of those (38-215-2, averages 9.5 carries for 53.8 yards). Although fourth in TE scoring (what an awful year at the position), Greg Olsen has just four points combined the last two weeks (4-46-0) after 41 points (13.7 per) over his previous three (20-239-3, 79.7 YPG). After catching just two of 10 targets for one yard, No. 16 WR Kelvin Benjamin is converting only 51.3-percent of his targets. However, the schedule is cake from here on out with just one opponent in the top half of points allowed to WR. Despite averaging 4.9 YPC or better in three of his last four, Jonathan Stewart has minimal value due to the timeshare. DeAngelo Williams is the better receiver and should operate as the passing-downs back, but has no business receiving half the backfield carries. Matchup is strong with Philly 20th or worse in total, rushing, and passing yards allowed. ... In light of the Cowboys' recent dive, Eagles have first place all to themselves at 6-2. Chip Kelly's fast-paced offense is clicking with at least 400 total yards in three straight. It's Mark Sanchez time with Nick Foles (broken collarbone) out at least a month. With a new lease on life in Philadelphia, Sanchez has been outstanding; 9.2 YPA and 68.4-percent in Houston, 9.1 and 80.6 in preseason compared to career bests of 56.7-percent completion and 6.7 YPA. Sanchez was a top-five pick for a reason, the guy has talent (more than Foles); he should be at worst a top-12 QB ROS. Jeremy Maclin is a monster. Third in WR scoring, Maclin was the top-scoring wideout each of the last two weeks with at least 27 points in both. He scored 57 during those two while his previous three produced just 19 points with five or less in two of them. Three of his last six games have topped the 150-yard mark and his season TD total doubled the past two weeks (now eight). Borderline not worth owning in 12-team leagues, Zach Ertz has four points or fewer in five of his last six. Lesean McCoy, the league's fourth-leading rusher, is back firmly inside the circle of trust with 430 rushing yards (107.5 YPG) the past four games after 192 (48 per) his first four. Although his backup, Chris Polk, found the painted area twice as often, the touchdowns will come...likely in bunches. Darren Sproles registered 14-plus points in weeks 1-2 but hasn't hit double digits since (seven touches or fewer in all five contests, 11 or more each of first two). Carolina has allowed 4.8 YPC (last), 131.9 YPG (26th), and 11 TD (31st) on the ground.
Predictions: Shady McCoy abuses the Panthers for 141 yards, starting his TD flurry with two Monday night. Sanchize doesn't disappoint with 8.1 YPA, 68-percent, and 2:0 TD:INT. Jeremy Maclin hauls in six of nine targets for 93 yards and a touchdown. Cam Newton seems to love MNF, accounting for 321 yards (52 rushing) and all three CAR scores. Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen both score. Panthers hang around, but Eagles, just a better team, pull away late. Philadelphia, 30-21.
