NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays & Strategy for Week 12 Holiday Weekend Baller

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays & Strategy for Week 12 Holiday Weekend Baller

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 12 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EST and features 10 games. The participants of the three Thanksgiving Day games (Packers-Lions, Commanders-Cowboys and 49ers-Seahawks, Friday's game (Dolphins-Jets), Sunday Night Football (Ravens-Chargers) and Monday Night Football (Bears-Vikings) play outside the main slate. Yahoo will run plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 12, but the biggest is the Holiday Weekend Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $140,000 to the top 1,524 finishers, including $15,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 8,200 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared toward head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $140k Holiday Weekend Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 12 options include a rookie QB-WR stack, as well as two RBs who have underperformed relative to preseason expectations but could turn things around against vulnerable run defenses.

QUARTERBACK

C.J. Stroud, HOU vs. JAC ($34): Stroud has been sensational the last three games, throwing for 1,162 yards and eight touchdowns. The Jaguars allow the fifth-most yards per game to QBs, and Stroud should capitalize on this favorable matchup as the Texans aim for their 11th win in the last 12 meetings with the Jaguars. With numerous top quarterback options outside the main slate in Week 12, Stroud's mix of recent production and matchup looks even more appealing relative to the alternatives.

Honorable Mentions:

Josh Allen, BUF at PHI ($39); Matthew Stafford, LA at ARI ($30); Kyler Murray, ARI vs. LA ($29)

Against the Grainers:

Patrick Mahomes, KC at LV ($34); Gardner Minshew, IND vs. TB ($27); Trevor Lawrence, JAC at HOU ($26)

RUNNING BACK

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. CAR ($26): Henry has been boom or bust, but he should play closer to his high ceiling against the vulnerable Carolina defense. The Titans are 3-1 at home while the Panthers are 0-5 on the road, so Tennessee's likely to play from ahead and give Henry plenty of carries against a Carolina defense that has given up 14 rushing TDs to RBs. In addition to giving up at least three more rushing TDs to RBs than any team in the NFL, the Panthers are allow 114.8 rushing yards per game to the position, which is second most after the Broncos. In his three busiest games, Henry averaged 101.0 rushing yards on 23.0 carries, so he's still quite capable of thriving with a heavy workload when game script allows.

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE at NYG ($20): Stevenson has had an underwhelming season, along with the rest of New England's offense, but he still gets plenty of opportunities, with 15-plus touches in seven of 10 games. That volume is likely to translate to production against a Giants defense that allow the second-most rushing yards (1,256) and rushing TDs (11) to RBs. With QB Mac Jones playing so poorly that he may be benched for Bailey Zappe in this game, look for New England to lean heavily on its defense and running game while also dialing up short, safe passes to Stevenson, whose 32 catches this season are the most among Patriots players available for this game.

Honorable Mentions:

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. NE ($26); Kyren Williams, LAR at ARI ($26); Isiah Pacheco, KC at LV ($20)

Against the Grainers:

D'Andre Swift, PHI vs. BUF ($25); Jerome Ford, CLE at DEN ($22); Joe Mixon, CIN vs. PIT ($21)

WIDE RECEIVER

Michael Pittman, IND vs. TB ($25): Both Pittman and teammate Josh Downs ($21) make for appealing options against a Tampa Bay defense that allows a league-high 199.6 yards per game to WRs. While the rookie Downs has been boom or bust, Pittman has established one of the highest floors among receivers in the league, with at least eight receptions in seven of 10 games. The Buccaneers have struggled to defend wide receivers but have yet to allow a rushing touchdown to a running back, so the Colts likely will turn to the Pittman-led passing game more than to Jonathan Taylor ($26) and the rushing attack.

Tank Dell, HOU vs. JAC ($23): Dell makes for a strong play as part of a Houston stack with Stroud or as a standalone option. The explosive rookie has caught 20 of 35 targets for 319 yards and four touchdowns the last three games, with at least one TD in each game and two performances with more than 100 yards. Dell usually bolsters his production with some contributions on the ground to boot, with double-digit rushing yards in three of his last six games. After mustering 145 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars back in Week 3, Dell will look to deliver a similar performance in this rematch with a Jacksonville secondary that's tied with Tampa Bay for the sixth-most receiving TDs allowed to WRs (11).

George Pickens, PIT at CIN ($14): Pickens is an intriguing high-ceiling bargain option in Pittsburgh's first game since firing former offensive coordinator Matt Canada. The second-year wide receiver has thrived when given the requisite volume, topping 100 yards in each of the three games in which he's drawn at least eight targets this season. In his career, Pickens has 549 yards and two TDs touchdowns in the five games in which he has seen eight-plus targets. With Pittsburgh likely to control time of possession against a Bengals team that's adjusting to life without star QB Joe Burrow (wrist), the affordable Pickens should get some opportunities to showcase his downfield playmaking skills against a Cincinnati secondary that has allowed at least one WR to exceed 85 yards in five consecutive games.

Honorable Mentions:

Stefon Diggs, BUF at PHI ($30); Puka Nacua, LA at ARI ($25); Adam Thielen, CAR at TEN ($22)

Against the Grainers: 

Davante Adams, LV vs. KC ($22); Drake London, ATL vs. NO ($18); Calvin Ridley, JAC at HOU ($16)

TIGHT END

Trey McBride, ARI vs. LA ($20): McBride has been one of the league's most productive tight ends since Zach Ertz (quadriceps) was placed on IR. In four subsequent games, McBride has caught 26 of 39 targets for 291 yards and one touchdown, including the first 100-yard performance by a Cardinals TE in 34 years in QB Kyler Murray's Week 10 season debut. McBride's season high in receiving yards prior to Ertz's injury was 62 against the Rams in Week 6, which isn't surprising considering L.A. has struggled to cover tight ends all season. The Rams' five TDs allowed to the position are one shy of most in the league, and they rank among the 10 most generous defenses against TEs with 56.8 yards allowed per game. 

Honorable Mentions:

Travis Kelce, KC at LV ($32); Evan Engram, JAC at TEN ($21); David Njoku, CLE at DEN ($20)

Against the Grainers: 

Dalton Kincaid, BUF at PHI ($19); Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. NO ($15); Hunter Henry, NE at NYG ($11)

DEFENSE

Denver Broncos, DEN vs. CLE ($15): This unit's overall numbers still look ugly due to a dreadful start, including 70 points allowed in Miami back in Week 3, but the Broncos have turned the corner defensively. During its four-game winning streak, Denver's allowed just 17.0 PPG, despite facing Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in that span. Even getting to that modest mark will be tough for a Browns offense with unproven rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center. In two previous games started by Thompson-Robinson, Cleveland has scored just 8.0 PPG, with the rookie QB posting a 0:4 TD:INT.

Honorable Mentions:

Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT at CIN ($18); New England Patriots, NE at NYG ($14); New York Giants, NYG vs. NE ($13)

Against the Grainers: 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB at IND ($15); Tennessee Titans, TEN vs. CAR ($13); Philadelphia Eagles, PHI vs. BUF ($12)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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