Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Minnesota vs. San Francisco

Injuries have both the 49ers and the Vikings in a difficult spot Monday, with the 49ers facing a variety of injury issues as the Vikings try to play their second game without Justin Jefferson. The 49ers will be without one of their star receivers (Deebo Samuel) as well, though running back Christian McCaffrey is reportedly trending toward playing through the oblique injury he suffered against Cleveland in Week 6. That this game is on the road means the 49ers need to take their task seriously, but with or without McCaffrey the 49ers project as safe favorites due to vastly superior roster and coaching. The Vikings have no obvious way to move the ball without Jefferson, and that includes against defenses worse than San Francisco's. The over/under is down to 43.0 from the opening 44.5, and the 49ers are 6.5-point favorites.

QUARTERBACK

Kirk Cousins ($10600 DK, $15000 FD) is paid something like 20 times the amount that Brock Purdy ($10200 DK, $15200 FD) is for the 49ers, but it's the modestly-paid youngster who projects better in this game. Cousins might be the better quarterback, but even if he is the surrounding circumstances are extremely difficult compared to what Purdy has in the 49ers system, even with the injuries they're dealing with.

Cousins' per-target numbers to non-Jefferson, non-Jordan Addison targets have been consistently awful going back to last year, and it's possible the Vikings just cannot adjust when Jefferson is out of the picture. Not just that, but the 49ers defense can make good offenses look awful. The Vikings offense is not good right now. For Cousins to provide fantasy utility here he'll likely need to get by on volume, but it's not easy to get to 40 pass attempts if you can't get first downs.

Purdy will see a higher degree of playing difficulty than usual with no Samuel and with McCaffrey banged up, but the Vikings' coverage personnel is among the worst in the league and no amount of scheming can make up for their personnel deficit. The 49ers will be laser-focused after losing to the Browns, so Purdy should be the beneficiary of some of Kyle Shanahan's most effective trickery.

RUNNING BACK

Christian McCaffrey ($12000 DK, $17500 FD) is a tougher call than usual due to his oblique injury, but if he's active it's worth remembering that the Vikings side might have an unusually low number of viable selections. McCaffrey might be somewhat inefficient as an investment due to limited playing time – both because he's injured and because the 49ers shouldn't need him much to win – but if there's nothing to save your money for otherwise then inefficient spending is sometimes warranted. With that said, Elijah Mitchell ($5600 DK, $11000 FD) and Jordan Mason ($5800 DK, $10500 FD) are plenty capable of doing damage, and either one could be a standout producer if given opportunity.

Alexander Mattison ($6600 DK, $12500 FD) sees a high level of opportunity most weeks but efficiency has been a struggle and that figures to continue against the 49ers' suffocating defense. Mattison's best route to fantasy utility is either a short touchdown or a flurry of checkdown targets, though those will not go for much yardage. Cam Akers ($1800 DK, $8000 FD) is the first runner off the bench, but mostly as a rushing specialist. The Vikings don't figure to do much rushing in this game.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Brandon Aiyuk ($10800 DK, $14000 FD) might be the most dangerous fade in this game. With Deebo Samuel out Aiyuk will have his target share almost entirely assured, and the Vikings defense has among the worst coverage personnel in the league. Even if Christian McCaffrey plays and plays vaguely well, a bad game from Aiyuk here would make it difficult to budget a win for the 49ers. Similarly, George Kittle ($7200 DK, $10000 FD) becomes a much more difficult fade any time that Samuel is missing. When the 49ers really want to get Kittle going they tend to get it done, and any game without Samuel narrows Kyle Shanahan's list of options. With that said, depth wideouts Ronnie Bell ($1000 DK, $7500 FD) and especially Jauan Jennings ($4000 DK, $8000 FD) are perfectly good candidates to get in on the action without Samuel. Ray Ray McCloud ($2200 DK, $7500 FD) played more than Bell last week, though the two have seen their playing time go up and down from week to week. McCloud should be the returner for the 49ers if you're looking to pair him with the DST.

T.J. Hockenson ($8800 DK, $12000 FD) would normally be a great bet to see his target count jump without Justin Jefferson, and that could still happen here. The effect of Fred Warner is normally a complete neutralization, however, and Hockenson was struggling with efficiency even before Jefferson got hurt. Now the bull's eye is really on Hockenson, as well as rookie wideout Jordan Addison ($7600 DK, $11500 FD). Addison is very good but figures to see double-team attention here now that Jefferson isn't pulling away coverage. Addison is the kind of receiver teams pay attention to, whereas K.J. Osborn ($6400 DK, $9500 FD) is the sort they ignore. If someone is going to slip past a busted coverage it's more likely to be Osborn, though Osborn is less likely to draw targets in general. Brandon Powell ($2800 DK, $7500 FD) is your likely third receiver, though he has never done well at it. Powell is also the likely returner for Minnesota, if you were looking for that. Josh Oliver ($200 DK, $5500 FD) tends to play between 20 and 30 snaps at tight end, as well, though he is primarily a blocker.

KICKER

Jake Moody ($5400 DK, $8500 FD) might need to be on watch for the yips after missing a game-winning field goal attempt against Cleveland that he would normally make in his sleep. Kickers miss kicks for no reason sometimes – it doesn't mean Moody specifically choked – but sometimes it messes with the mind of a kicker when they see themselves fail in a way that they normally don't. With all of that noted, Moody clearly has the stuff to bounce back and hopefully will do as much in this road environment to lock himself back into a groove. Moody exceeded double-digit fantasy points in each of the first three weeks.

Though he's arguably the better real-life kicker of the two and one with notable long-range ability, Greg Joseph ($4400 DK, $8500 FD) figures to see his offense struggle more than Moody's. Joseph might need to call on that long-range ability to make any field goals here, because short of turnover possessions it's difficult to see the Vikings moving into scoring range often. The Vikings' offense has proven a hindrance to Joseph already, keeping him at 8.0 or fewer fantasy points every week this year.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

An injured road team against a prior-year playoff team probably doesn't carry the most favorable historical trends in terms of general indicators, but there's reason to think the 49ers ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) defense can post strong results here. Kirk Cousins and company badly struggled against the Bears defense and the Vikings' run game has only worked against weaker defenses. If the run game dries up and the passing game reruns last week's simulation with worse variables, Cousins could fall into a turnover-prone tendency. Jordan Addison will be a very good receiver for the Vikings and already is as much, but he can't carry the Vikings offense himself.

The Vikings ($3400 DK, $9000 FD) defense projects less favorably, even as the home team and even with the 49ers beat up. The one thing the Vikings defense has going for it is Danielle Hunter, who is playing out of his mind through six games. Almost everything else is a negative, however.