This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
The Bengals' season is just barely still flickering at 4-8, whereas Dallas' ended when Dak Prescott suffered his season-ending injury, if not some time before that. Both teams are managing significant offensive line injuries, the result of which could be major complications when you're talking about pass rushers like Micah Parsons and Trey Hendrickson. The Bengals are believed to have the safe upper hand despite their struggles, but the absence of left tackle Orlando Brown could sap route-running resources to help minimize the damage inflicted by Parsons, who otherwise can just ruin the game for Cincinnati's offense. The Bengals are favored by 5.5 despite playing on the road, while the over/under is at 49.5.
QUARTERBACK
Joe Burrow needs to be very careful about the left side of the line on every play, even if Micah Parsons is lining up on the right. The Bengals might want to tenderize the Dallas front seven a bit with an early run game before opening up the pass – hopefully tiring the pass rushers somewhat by that point – but if the Bengals can get to that point then they should be able to turn up the heat on the Dallas secondary that otherwise needs the pass rush to protect it. Either way, Burrow is a tough fade on a single-game slate where the Dallas offense at large might struggle.
Cooper Rush ($8800 DK, $11500 FD) continues to play admirably if not valiantly, but his means remain limited and the structure around him
The Bengals' season is just barely still flickering at 4-8, whereas Dallas' ended when Dak Prescott suffered his season-ending injury, if not some time before that. Both teams are managing significant offensive line injuries, the result of which could be major complications when you're talking about pass rushers like Micah Parsons and Trey Hendrickson. The Bengals are believed to have the safe upper hand despite their struggles, but the absence of left tackle Orlando Brown could sap route-running resources to help minimize the damage inflicted by Parsons, who otherwise can just ruin the game for Cincinnati's offense. The Bengals are favored by 5.5 despite playing on the road, while the over/under is at 49.5.
QUARTERBACK
Joe Burrow needs to be very careful about the left side of the line on every play, even if Micah Parsons is lining up on the right. The Bengals might want to tenderize the Dallas front seven a bit with an early run game before opening up the pass – hopefully tiring the pass rushers somewhat by that point – but if the Bengals can get to that point then they should be able to turn up the heat on the Dallas secondary that otherwise needs the pass rush to protect it. Either way, Burrow is a tough fade on a single-game slate where the Dallas offense at large might struggle.
Cooper Rush ($8800 DK, $11500 FD) continues to play admirably if not valiantly, but his means remain limited and the structure around him continues to crumble. The likely absence of Tyler Guyton at left tackle introduces a new concern where there was already plenty. The Bengals defense might be somewhat accommodating to opposing quarterbacks, but so are the Giants and Commanders and Rush couldn't reach 20 fantasy points against either.
RUNNING BACK
Chase Brown ($9800 DK, $12500 FD) is a very tough fade on this slate, even if you're otherwise loading up on expensive components of the Cincinnati passing game. Brown has decisively held off the likes of Khalil Herbert and Trayveon Williams, who therefore appear to be little more than aggressive punt plays at the moment. The Dallas defense is one of the worst against the run, and Brown is one of the most valuable fantasy running backs at the moment.
Rico Dowdle ($9000 DK, $11000 FD) will definitely see a big snap count in this game and should stay on the field even in passing situations, so his floor should be set fairly well even if the Bengals play well in run defense. The Bengals were awful against the run at the beginning of the year but have improved lately, and the offensive line injuries for Dallas can't help matters. Ezekiel Elliott is the punt play otherwise but only played nine snaps last week, so it would probably require a Dowdle injury for Elliott to play much.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
CeeDee Lamb ($10600 DK, $14000 FD) is a tough fade even in this diminished state, though it does decisively appear to be diminished. It's possible, though, that Lamb's recent struggles were partially related to a shoulder injury he played through, and going into this game his shoulder might be in the best state it has been in weeks (he was removed from the injury report, for instance). The more peripheral components of the Dallas passing game should be understood as lottery tickets – especially with the Dallas passing game stripped down it's just about impossible to guess how much opportunity there might be to split up between players like Jake Ferguson ($5400 DK, $100000 FD), Brandin Cooks ($7000 DK, $10500 FD), Jalen Tolbert ($2800 DK, $7500 FD) and KaVontae Turpin ($3000 DK, $7500 FD). Ferguson is usually the closest thing to the WR2 in this offense, but in Dallas' presently scrambled state it's possible that the calculus has shifted a little. Dallas also likes to make their offense worse by for some reason giving snaps to Jalen Brooks ($1000 DK, $6000 FD) and Jonathan Mingo ($2200 DK, $6500 FD), so they might prove viable punt options despite their awful projections. Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Ford-Spann are only punt considerations with Ferguson back.
Ja'Marr Chase ($11600 DK, $15500 FD) and Tee Higgins ($9600 DK, $13000 FD) are both tough fades here, because the Dallas secondary can't contain either of them in coverage terms. The one thing to keep in mind here is that the Dallas pass rush can get lively from Micah Parsons alone, and the absence of Orlando Brown at left tackle might result in Burrow having less time to throw than usual. Even if that happens, though, at least one of Chase or Higgins should be productive, and it's plenty possible that they both roll here. It might be greedy to hope for three productive pass catchers in the Cincinnati offense here, but there's certainly a viable candidate in Mike Gesicki ($5600 DK, $8500 FD), who has all but proven himself Cincinnati's best slot receiver even though Andrei Iosivas ($4400 DK, $9500 FD) technically has the job title of starting slot wideout. Drew Sample ($1600 DK, $5500 FD) plays starter-level snaps and is a justifiable punt play as a result, but he almost always blocks instead of catching passes. Better punt-play options might be pass-catching specialist tight end Tanner Hudson ($2000 DK, $6500 FD) or depth wideout Jermaine Burton ($800 DK, $6000 FD).
KICKER
Brandon Aubrey ($5000 DK, $8500 FD) is still probably the best kicker of all time, but gauging his fantasy value at the moment is difficult due to the struggles of the Dallas offense. Even getting into a 60-yard field goal range is less than a given for Dallas, and when they do get into scoring range they might require touchdowns to catch up rather than field goals. With that said, if the opportunity arises Aubrey is almost always automatic.
Cade York ($4800 DK, $9000 FD) steps in for the injured Evan McPerson. York has struggled badly in the NFL but was once a coveted kicker prospect, so perhaps he can use this platform to begin to salvage his brand as an NFL kicker. The Bengals are projected to have a game script where field goal opportunities occur, so the question is largely just whether York can manage to convert those opportunities.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Although the Cowboys ($3600 DK, $8000 FD) are expected to be overmatched in this game, they always have the slight flicker of chance as long as Micah Parsons is out there. If Parsons can cause havoc in light of Orlando Brown's absence then the Cowboys could get some hits on Burrow.
The Bengals ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) defense doesn't have much going for it itself, with its assets basically just being Trey Hendrickson and the fact that the Dallas offense has been annihilated by injuries. With that said, Hendrickson can be a game wrecker and if the Bengals have a lead then this could tee up Hendrickson like a home run derby.
