Matchup Edge: Hope for Philly

Detroit vs. Chicago

Open: 44 O/U, DET -6
Press time: 44 O/U, DET -5

I'm surprised that the spread here is as close as it is, and I have to wonder if pessimistic speculation on Matthew Stafford's throwing hand is part of the reasoning. Given that Stafford threw for 381 yards last week, I would imagine that if he's feeling pain, it's something he shouldn't have trouble playing through. The last time he played the Bears, in the far less favorable setting of Soldier Field, Stafford threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns. Even though Stafford's road performances have been improved this year, I think you can still safely project better efficiency at home. I think a box score like the one from earlier this year is his floor in this one.

With that said, the Bears do have a couple corners who have done well this year, namely Prince Amukamara and Bryce Callahan. Amukamara has the tools of a legitimate CB1 when healthy, and Pro Football Focus credits Callahan with just 190 yards and two touchdowns allowed on 31 targets in nine games this year.. You bet on Marvin Jones and Golden Tate producing despite those obstacles, if only because of how strong Stafford's projection is, but it might not be easy sailing for those two. In three-wide sets it might actually be Kenny Golladay who has the most favorable matchup if he's facing off against Kyle Fuller, so I think the gap between Jones/Tate and Golladay is less than usual. Eric Ebron is another crucial variable in this equation coming off an 11-target game. The Bears have been very tough on tight ends this year, limiting them to the fifth-fewest fantasy points and 6.9 yards per target. You would still bet on Ebron in most cases if he saw at least six targets, but I don't know how much signal was in last week's usage.

For the Bears it's, as always, pretty much just Jordan Howard that you're looking at. After a dubious start to the year he's put together another strong season, silencing any doubts over his status as one of the league's best runners. Against a Detroit run defense that's struggled badly without Haloti Ngata, you have to like Howard relative to whatever usage the Bears can scrape together. He was held to 15 carries last time, and the blowout potential for Chicago is greater in Detroit. Still, He's a high-end RB2 type and a strong GPP consideration at the least for whatever DFS slates might offer this game.

Kansas City vs. Chargers

Open: 46 O/U, KC -1
Press time: 46.5 O/U, LAC-1

No one can slow Keenan Allen lately, let alone stop him, and the other Chargers pass catchers – namely Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams, and Travis Benjamin – all have favorable matchups against a weak Kansas City secondary. I do worry that this might be something of a trap for Philip Rivers, though, at least relative to the presumably high expectations most have for him in this setting. The game is in Arrowhead, of course, which you'd rather not deal with, especially this late in the year. Then there's Rivers' career splits against the Chiefs which, however noisy they might be, indicate a general theme of struggle. He had a disastrous game against the Chiefs the first time around this year, throwing three interceptions and scoring no touchdowns, but the numbers from their 23 previous matchups were also a bit concerning. Rivers is 13-11 against the Chiefs, with 32 touchdowns to 27 interceptions. His QB rating of 84.5 against the Chiefs is a sharp contrast to his career rating of 94.9.

Still, even if Rivers struggles, it needn't mean a poor game for Allen or Henry, who have a death grip on the market share in this passing game due to Rivers' inability to throw past the slot reliably. If Rivers only throws for 225 yards and a touchdown, it's easy enough to imagine Allen and Henry combining for at least 140 of those yards and the score. In season-long formats you're not paying any attention to this – Allen is a WR1 and Henry is a TE1.

Particularly if you put stock in the line swing, which declared the Chargers the slight favorite after initially giving that distinction to the home team, the game should project well enough for Melvin Gordon. That the Chiefs have limited running backs to just 4.3 yards per target might limit Gordon's pass-catching upside, but they otherwise have allowed 4.2 yards per carry to running backs, and Gordon should push for 20 here.

After an excruciatingly long wait, Kareem Hunt finally bounced back last week, and I think you can make the case that he has the better projection than Gordon in this one despite the line swing. It's easy enough to imagine a scenario where Hunt secures sufficient volume this week if Rivers' historical struggles persist, and the Chargers run defense is otherwise vulnerable. They've allowed 4.6 yards per carry to running backs, and 5.9 yards per target. Despite his recent fantasy disappointments, Hunt hasn't truly struggled beyond a handful of small samples this year. Don't lose sight of the fact that he's still averaging well over 100 yards from scrimmage per game.

Alex Smith doesn't project so well against a Chargers pass defense that's safely top-five in the NFL, allowing just 6.5 YPA while surrendering 14 touchdowns versus 16 interceptions. I don't think Casey Hayward can run with Tyreek Hill, but it feels like a coin flip's chance at best whether the Chiefs actually target him downfield. The Chargers have allowed only 639 yards and three touchdowns to tight ends this year, but also 7.5 yards per target, which makes me feel better about Travis Kelce in the matchup than I do Hill.

Cleveland vs. Baltimore

Open: 40 O/U, BAL -8
Press time: 40.5 O/U, BAL -7.5

Did the Baltimore pass defense go from imposing to vulnerable with the season-ending injury to Jimmy Smith? It took 66 passes, but Ben Roethlisberger did what he wanted against them, and the pass rush was weak, too. I don't think these guys can cover Josh Gordon or Corey Coleman. The Ravens still might be able to concoct coverage schemes that confuse the rookie DeShone Kizer, but it otherwise is a tempting matchup for me in DFS tournaments. This all applies to David Njoku, too – if Cleveland gets within scoring range, Njoku is a great threat to do it against a Baltimore defense that's struggled to cover tight ends.

I think Duke Johnson has some utility since he might make an impact as a receiver, but I generally have a hard time feeling optimistic about Isaiah Crowell. The Ravens run defense probably isn't as bad as it looked against Le'Veon Bell.

Alex Collins is one of the hottest running backs in the league right now, and he projects for nice volume and scoring opportunity in this one despite the yards-from-scrimmage limitations the stout Cleveland run defense might otherwise pose. Danny Woodhead might also have one of his better PPR games against a Browns defense that's allowed 6.8 yards per target to running backs.

Jeremy Maclin had an awful game against Pittsburgh, but I think you can like his chances of bouncing back in this one, especially if Briean Boddy-Calhoun is out for Cleveland. Mike Wallace has been the better receiver lately, but his ankle issue appears a threat to limit him somewhat. It in any case shapes up as a game where Joe Flacco could return one of his better box scores.

Carolina vs. Green Bay

Open: 44.5 O/U, CAR -2
Press time: 47 O/U, CAR -3

Aaron Rodgers is back, and Jordy Nelson is probably back as a result. It might result in the smallest hint of a downgrade for Davante Adams since Brett Hundley was so peculiarly dependent on him at Nelson's expense, but Adams' projection is more likely solidified by Rodgers' return. That the Carolina run defense is so tough limits the from-scrimmage upside for Jamaal Williams, perhaps channeling a bit more toward Adams, Nelson, and Randall Cobb, but Williams' workload and pass-catching work in a Rodgers offense makes him categorically useful in fantasy.

Cam Newton projects nicely on the other side of this game, though the list of pass catchers at his disposal is quite limited. Devin Funchess is probably in for double-digit targets, making him one of the top wide receiver plays against a dubious Green Bay secondary, but guessing who else might contribute isn't easy. Damiere Byrd might pitch in after catching all five of his targets for 37 yards last week, but Funchess providing at least 40 percent of Carolina's receiving output seems all but assured.

Jonathan Stewart probably won't run for one touchdown in this game, let alone three, though I also have no way to explain how any of that happened against the Vikings of all teams. Maybe Carolina is onto something new with its running game, but I'm not prepared to presume as much. Christian McCaffrey has significant pass-catching intrigue since Byrd might not step up two weeks in a row, but his rushing output also carries a modest projection.

Minnesota vs. Cincinnati

Open: 41 O/U, MIN -10.5
Press time: 42 O/U, MIN -10.5

Despite the availability of Geno Atkins, Shawn Williams, and Vincent Rey, the Bengals may still be without Vontaze Burfict, Nick Vigil, and Dre Kirkpatrick this week. Minnesota's offense should therefore have a significantly better matchup than Cincinnati's numbers to date would normally imply.

One or both of Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon should enjoy a nice game, as they'll get cracks at this vulnerable defense perhaps with favorable time of possession and field position variables. The Minnesota defense is a suffocating matchup for Cincinnati's offense, and as the spread implies the Bengals might not be especially competitive in this one. That would assure volume for the running backs, especially Murray, the main clock-eater between the two.

I won't be considering anyone from the Cincinnati side except A.J. Green, who might make it into one of my tournament lineups despite the brutal matchup. Xavier Rhodes is very good, but Green can probably get the better of him in at least every other game, and Rhodes is playing through a hip issue.

New Orleans vs. Jets

Open: 47 O/U, NO -15
Press time: 47.5 O/U, NO -15.5

I have no interest in anyone on the Jets. I worry that Bryce Petty is so bad that even garbage time may prove fruitless, and Christian Hackenberg would be an even worse sentence. In Robby Anderson's case specifically, Marshon Lattimore was an enormous deterrent even if it were Josh McCown out there.

For the Saints, the usual suspects should be productive as a reliably channeled offense against a pushover opponent. That pushover factor might limit Drew Brees' volume, but he's so dependent on Michael Thomas that I wouldn't let it scare me off the latter. Ted Ginn has some deep league and DFS tournament appeal, but his role has been rather limited lately.

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram both project very well here, and I might try my DFS luck more so on the latter since he's probably New Orleans' go-to runner for short-yardage and clock-eating situations, and I imagine this game won't be competitive beyond the first half.

Jacksonville vs. Houston

Open: 40 O/U, JAC -11
Press time: 38 O/U, JAC -11

If Leonard Fournette is in, you probably have to keep rolling with him in season-long formats, and maybe make some consideration in DFS tournaments. The matchup is otherwise not great, though, and the injury risk between his quadriceps and ankle is rather concerning. You would probably have to consider Chris Ivory the favorite over T.J. Yeldon if Fournette sits out, though both of them would likely remain involved to some significant extent.

Particularly if Fournette is out but even if he isn't, you probably have to like Blake Bortles in this matchup, uneasy as that understandably might make you feel. The Houston pass defense has allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and some of the usage that normally channels through Fournette might instead channel through Marqise Lee and Dede Westbrook, both of whom have fine matchups here.

On the Houston side, all is grim. You're probably still using DeAndre Hopkins in season-long formats, but the DFS utility is elusive. Lamar Miller should get some usage, but he's nicked up and appears to be losing steam as the year draws to a close.

Giants vs. Philadelphia

Open: 40 O/U, PHI -8
Press time: 40.5 O/U, PHI -7.5

Nick Foles probably isn't good, but the last time he was bad he was playing for Jeff Fisher. We saw what happened for Sam Bradford, Jared Goff, and Case Keenum once they got away from Fisher, so I have some optimism for Foles. I in any case think he's a streaming consideration for both season-long and DFS against a toothless Giants defense.

Because I'm not worried about Foles, I'm also not worried about Alshon Jeffery or Zach Ertz. I'm not worried about Philadelphia sheltering Foles at their expenses, either – if anything, the Eagles have an interest in getting Foles meaningful reps for their playoff run. Nelson Agholor probably won't get a big target volume, but if the Giants move Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie out of the slot to follow Jeffery, it would be a big matchup boost for Agholor.

The threat of the running back committee remains, but Jay Ajayi finally hit the 15-carry mark last week, and it would be extremely weird if Philadelphia coughed up a fourth-round pick just to limit him to an eight-carry role most weeks. I therefore like the chances of a strong game for Ajayi, reckless as that might be.

On the Giants side, I want nothing to do with anything aside from Evan Engram in season-long and some DFS tournaments. This team just needs the season to mercifully end.

Washington vs. Arizona

Open: 44 O/U, WAS -3.5
Press time: 41.5 O/U, WAS -4

Washington is on the way down generally, largely thanks to injuries, but I like this game as a bounce-back spot for Kirk Cousins against an Arizona team that moves at a quick tempo and encourages teams to throw the ball due to its tough run defense. I don't expect Samaje Perine to do much on the ground other than perhaps score a short-yardage touchdown, so I think the Washington offense should funnel toward the pass, where Arizona is vulnerable when someone not named Patrick Peterson is targeted. Arizona is tied for the seventh-most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, tied with the Colts and Chiefs, surrendering only 6.7 YPA but drawing the fifth-most attempts at 35.7 per game.

Peterson figures to be Josh Doctson's problem, and you would probably call Peterson one of the worst matchups possible for the second-year wideout. He's as big as Doctson, but more athletic. That could create an additional funnel in the directions of Jamison Crowder, Vernon Davis, and Ryan Grant, particularly since Washington didn't find a replacement pass-catching back after Byron Marshall went on IR.

On the other side, Larry Fitzgerald and Ricky Seals-Jones remain the only realistic pass-catching threats in an offense limited by Blaine Gabbert's checkdown tendencies. Fitzgerald should see relatively tough coverage from Washington's big trio of Kendall Fuller, Josh Norman, and Bashaud Breeland, so it's not a favorable draw. He's good enough and his volume remains stable such that he's at least a tournament consideration in DFS, though, and a mainstream start in season-long formats. Seals-Jones has the more favorable matchup despite his much lesser volume, against a Washington defense that's allowed 854 yards and eight touchdowns to tight ends on 103 targets.

Kerwynn Williams has mainstream season-long utility as the featured runner with Adrian Peterson out, but since I like Cousins and not Gabbert I have to consider Washington the favorite here. As such, Washington is a threat to make Arizona abandon the run, at which point the backfield might belong to D.J. Foster more than Williams. Williams is only a tournament consideration for me in DFS.

Buffalo vs. Miami

Open: 38.5 O/U, BUF -4
Press time: 39 O/U, BUF -3

Damien Williams might return for this one, but Kenyan Drake has played so well and Williams might remain limited enough by his shoulder injury that it should set up as another workhorse day for Drake, against a Buffalo defense allowing 983 yards and 11 touchdowns (4.8 YPC) to running backs in the seven games since trading Marcell Dareus. Drake should be one of the most popular running back plays this week, and for very good reason. Otherwise, though, given the temperature and the general unreliability of Jay Cutler, I wouldn't venture beyond Jarvis Landry as far as other Miami considerations go.

Particularly due to the uncertainty he presents in his return from a knee injury, Tyrod Taylor return isn't terribly reassuring, huge of an improvement as he might be over Nathan Peterman. I'll be staying away from Buffalo pass catchers as a result, but LeSean McCoy should project nicely for the third week in a row. The Dolphins defense will have the privilege of selling out against the run, true, but the same was the case against the Colts and Chargers, both of whom got ripped up by McCoy with Peterman at quarterback. The Dolphins have allowed 4.4 yards per carry to running backs so far, and 78 receptions in 13 games.

Seattle vs. Rams

Open: 48 O/U, SEA -1
Press time: 47.5 O/U, SEA -2.5

So long as the weather isn't problematic – and the expected light rain generally shouldn't be an issue – this game projects as one of the more fruitful ones for fantasy purposes. Both of these teams are relatively uptempo, and presumably push toward the higher ends of their potential tempos when a game is as competitive and high-scoring as this one might be.

Russell Wilson figures to be the chalk at quarterback this week, and for good reason. He's been awesome this year, and if he can post three touchdowns on the road against Jacksonville then you have to consider him a match for a Rams pass defense that was chipped away at by Carson Wentz last week. All of Doug Baldwin, Paul Richardson, and Tyler Lockett have mainstream appeal in DFS, and while the matchup isn't easy I can't find the Rams secondary personnel imposing enough to scare away from any of them. Jimmy Graham was a dud against the Jaguars, but he's a strong candidate to bounce back against a Rams defense that's allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends on 87 targets.

He's a big-time injury risk, but I otherwise really like the matchup for Mike Davis. Davis gets a favorable draw against a weak Rams run defense, and if that occurs in the context of one of the day's high-scoring offenses, it seems like it has to add up to a win for Davis. Unless he bruises his ribs or shoulder or something (very possible).

Jared Goff doesn't project nearly as well as Wilson, but he should provide some decent return all the same. The Rams play aggressively as a general rule, and this defense of course isn't what it used to be with Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor out. The return of Robert Woods is further reassurance, and should make the Rams' three-wide sets considerably more imposing. I'm generally off Sammy Watkins at this point, as he mostly worked at clearing the field before Woods got hurt, but I think Woods and Cooper Kupp should both be busy.

Todd Gurley was able to do relatively easy damage against a Philadelphia defense that previously smothered opposing running backs, so you're certainly not going to shy away from him in this setting, which could feature even better tempo. The matchup is fairly tough otherwise, of course.

San Francisco vs. Tennessee

Open: 44.5 O/U, PK
Press time: 45 O/U, SF -1

Jimmy Garoppolo disappointed me a bit last week, but I still find him promising in this offense, and the Titans pass defense is vulnerable here. Marquise Goodwin is one of the top wide receiver plays for me on this slate as Garoppolo's clear No. 1 in this setting, and one of the league's greatest big-play threats. I had high hopes for Trent Taylor last week and he gets another favorable draw here, but he'd be a very long shot play at the moment.

Carlos Hyde is a running back I'm high on this week despite the formidable Tennessee run defense. I like his chances especially in PPR, as the Titans funnel more targets toward running backs than any other team. Something like 17 carries and five catches is imagined easily enough for Hyde, and those touches may occur within scoring range at a good rate if you buy the premise that San Francisco should be the favorite here.

Tennessee should have some theoretically useful pieces in this given the favorable matchup, but this team is so broken and its usage so unsteady that it's easier said than done. Now dealing with a knee injury, Marcus Mariota can't be counted on for anything in particular, and as a result it's easy to feel nauseous for all of Rishard Matthews, Corey Davis, and Eric Decker. I remain intrigued by Matthews due to his deflated price, though.

The running game should have been where Tennessee provided real value, especially given how cheap DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry are on DFS sites, but the split between the two has made predicting the distribution of spoils all but impossible, and a limited carry ceiling all but assured in each case. I can't really dissuade anyone from trying their luck there in a tournament or season-long, but I also don't really know how to advise on either.

Pittsburgh vs. New England

Open: 54 O/U, NE -1
Press time: 53.5 O/U, NE -3

New England must have been caught flat-footed against the Dolphins, looking ahead to this game instead of focusing on last week's opponent. Right? How else does that happen? I'm still trying to figure out how that Pittsburgh/Baltimore game happened, too. These two teams are on strange trajectories, but it seems reasonable to expect a return to the mean, which in this case would be a competitive, shootout-prone sort of outcome.

Tom Brady has torched the Steelers throughout his career, throwing for 24 touchdowns versus three interceptions in nine games at 8.3 YPA. I feel like he should be able to pick on Artie Burns and, if he plays, Coty Sensabaugh, which makes me like the chances of a big game for Brandin Cooks, and to a lesser extent Chris Hogan. All three should benefit from the return of Rob Gronkowski, who should have a big game in store He has eight touchdowns in five games against Pittsburgh.

The New England backfield is a puzzle that's made more difficult to figure out in large part because of the shootout expectation here. How much will New England actually run the ball? Burkhead and Lewis both saw five carries and five receptions in last week's losing game flow, and if this game has an urgent pace it might entail a similar sort of workload for the two, with James White working almost exclusively as a passing-down specialist otherwise. I guess I'd prefer Burkhead over Lewis if I had to pick one, mostly due to Burkhead's steadier pass-catching workload, but Lewis has reiterated his own pass-catching ability of late.

I'm still skeptical of Ben Roethlisberger's skill level and think this New England defense is better than the one we saw earlier this year, but he should throw the ball enough to provide value through volume if nothing else. Antonio Brown projects for a big game as a seemingly unstoppable force in what's projected as a shootout, and Juju Smith-Schuster would be back on the mainstream radar just the same. I can't argue against the logic of Martavis Bryant in a DFS tournament, but it is a long shot as long as JSS is out there. Le'Veon Bell's upside needs no explanation.

Oakland vs. Dallas

Open: 45 O/U, DAL -1.5
Press time: 46 O/U, DAL -3

These are two of the slower-tempo offenses in the league, so I'm not optimistic for its shootout chances despite the various issues of the two defenses involved. There should be at least a couple useful outputs, though.

Dak Prescott looks like a high-floor option against a Raiders defense that has allowed 20 touchdowns versus two interceptions at 7.7 YPA. I worry that his ceiling might be somewhat limited, though, both due to his shortage of pass-catching options and the slow tempos these two teams tend to work at. The Oakland defense is also vulnerable to the run, allowing 4.2 yards per carry to this point, so I worry that Alfred Morris and Rod Smith might secure a lot of the usage in this offense, eating up clock in the process. I like Morris' chances of giving RB2 utility here, while Smith is more of a flex type barring a promotion. Despite the concerns with Prescott's upside, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten tend to go as he does, and the Oakland secondary isn't imposing.

Derek Carr has been disappointing this year, and it's hard to anticipate a big game in this setting against a Dallas team that sits on the ball once it has a lead. If he does have a strong box score, it might have something to do with Dallas missing elite pass-rushing tackle David Irving and standout slot corner Orlando Scandrick. Their absences raise the floor of Michael Crabtree, who should prove much more efficient than last week's 13-target, 60-yard box score.

Marshawn Lynch is probably the Raiders player I'd feel best about. You worry about the volume if the game flow goes the wrong way, but Dallas isn't a team that scores fast. Even if Oakland falls behind, it shouldn't happen so quickly that Oakland needs to abandon run. If they don't abandon Lynch, he should produce against the Dallas defense, and the previously mentioned injuries help the odds of Oakland moving the chains, assuring further volume for Lynch.

Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta

Open: 47.5 O/U, ATL -4
Press time: 49 O/U, ATL -6

With Gerald McCoy possibly missing time with a biceps injury and Lavonte David dealing with hamstring troubles, this should be a game where the Atlanta rushing attack gets loose. You have to like Devonta Freeman a lot, especially if Tevin Coleman (concussion) is out, and both are fully capable of shredding this defense if McCoy is out. It would have been a favorable matchup for either even if McCoy and David weren't dealing with injuries.

If McCoy is absent it would also make life easier for Matt Ryan, who should see sturdier pockets than he otherwise would in this setting. If Ryan has extra time to throw against a Tampa Bay secondary he already didn't need any help dealing with, then he should really shred them. You do worry about whether there's any volume there with Tampa Bay potentially getting blown out, but that Tampa is one of the most uptempo, pass-happy teams provides some reassurance for the question of Ryan's upside. He generally appears one of the top quarterback plays this week.

Mohamed Sanu and others have taken up space at Julio Jones' expense in similar past contexts, but Jones' target volume has generally been more stable lately and we don't need any reminders of what he's capable of against this team. Even with the Atlanta running game projected for a big day and Sanu capable of his customary vulturing, it's hard to see how Jones could have anything worse than the second-best projection this week among wide receivers, and probably one of his higher projections generally.

Jameis Winston might post a useful box score from volume alone if the Falcons do score quickly, early, and often, but the matchup otherwise seems mediocre at best. Atlanta's corner rotation has done a good job all year, and as a result the Falcons are allowing just 6.6 YPA to opposing quarterbacks, and just 17 passing touchdowns in 13 games. He's probably on the fringe as a top-15 option, and the volatility is uniquely high.

If there's reason for optimism with Winston, it might be found in the fact that Mike Evans is due for some bounce back after two puzzlingly quiet weeks. The matchup isn't favorable at a glance, but at least these Atlanta corners, good as they are, are all at least five inches shorter and probably about 30 pounds lighter than Evans. Even if he's not open, we've seen him make many catches with his ability to box out. It's a little more difficult to rationalize DeSean Jackson, but he remains a player who's much better than his recent production would imply. It's more of a Winston/Koetter problem. I don't know what to make of Cameron Brate, who's gone back to disappearing and remains on the injury report with his lingering hip issue, and O.J. Howard's target volume fluctuates too much for his projection to be anything more than a tossup.

Peyton Barber should get the chance to work as the lead runner after the Buccaneers ditched Doug Martin following a fumble last week, but that he's a limited talent on a team that should fall far behind poses two substantial risks to his projection, but the former point might be moot if the Buccaneers are forced to abandon the run anyway. The Falcons are allowing 4.0 yards per carry to running backs, so the matchup isn't otherwise concerning.