Matchup Edge: Great Expectations

Minnesota vs. Chicago

Open: 40 O/U, MIN -13
Press time: 38 O/U, MIN -12

Minnesota's so vastly superior that you would expect them to control this game from start to finish, with minimal exertion. If that proves true, then it might be difficult to harvest fantasy utility from the top Vikings players despite the team's interest in securing the win here. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs should be open, but like last week's game against Green Bay, Case Keenum simply might not need to throw much.

If I was to test my luck with any Vikings in fantasy, aside from the defense, it'd probably be Latavius Murray. He's Minnesota's go-to option when sitting on a lead, and they should do that plenty in this game. But his mediocre talent level and the determination of the Bears defense leave me pessimistic about Murray's chances of accumulating yardage from scrimmage. I think he'll need multiple touchdowns to be a hit for fantasy owners.

Philadelphia vs. Dallas

Open: 43 O/U, PHI -1
Press time: 39 O/U, DAL -3

The Eagles aren't playing many of their starters in this one, which makes Ezekiel Elliott more interesting than usual in a game where he should see a big workload despite the backups that might be on the other side. I'm on the fence as to how much of a win that really is for Elliott when Hall of Fame left tackle Tyron Smith is sitting out. Smith's injuries were a bigger factor in the derailing of the Dallas offense than Elliott's suspension was.

I don't want to pick any parts of the Dallas passing game since I bet Dallas can't get open against practice squad corners, but keep an eye on Ryan Switzer with Cole Beasley out. Switzer is way better.

New England vs. Jets

Open: 46 O/U, NE -16.5
Press time: 43.5 O/U, NE -14.5

The Patriots are big home favorites while Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee are out, and James White limited in practice this week. How could this game possibly result in anything but big numbers for Dion Lewis? He should get a big workload against a heavy underdog that should regularly give up scoring opportunities as the Jets quarterback play reliably undoes drives.

Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and Brandin Cooks should project well enough for scoring opportunities, but the toothless Jets offense doesn't figure to push the issue enough for the New England passing game to operate much beyond the second quarter. As much as the Patriots have something to play for in this game, the question of whether they'll actually need to try hard is a different issue entirely, with a much less certain answer.

Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland

Open: 41 O/U, PIT -16
Press time: 36.5 O/U, PIT -6

Although they're likely playing with many backups, the Steelers just can't seem to shake heavy favorite status in this game as the Browns stare at the possibility of an 0-16 record. The Steelers technically have something to play for, but their scenario would only materialize if the Patriots lose to the Jets, which... isn't happening.

It's therefore difficult to guess what happens aside from scratching Le'Veon Bell and Ben Roethlisberger. Landry Jones is the quarterback, but who will be his receivers? Juju Smith-Schuster strikes me as the best bet since the Antonio Brown absence already depleted them somewhat, but he could easily see his snaps minimized in favor of Eli Rogers. Against Cleveland's run defense, I have not much interest in Stevan Ridley. But if you buy the spread here, Ridley would project for potentially substantial usage, and maybe even scoring opportunities.

Indianapolis vs. Houston

Open: 44 O/U, PK
Press time: 41 O/U, -5.5 IND

You want to bet against T.Y. Hilton at home? Against the Texans? I don't. It's always playing with fire to some extent given the fluctuating play at quarterback, but Hilton should be open all day in this one. Frank Gore doesn't get a good draw against Houston's tough run defense, but Gore is playing well enough of late and the point swing on this game gives reason to suspect Houston will be playing with a lead. He even has an outside shot at hitting the 1,000-yard mark the ground if he can get to 139.

Giants vs. Washington

Open: 39 O/U, WAS -3.5
Press time: 39.5 O/U, WAS -3

It's not easy to see Samaje Perine busting loose for big numbers, but the matchup is a very favorable one, especially since the Giants offense projects to struggle so much with Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram hurting. Perine should get big volume and multiple scoring opportunities.

Besides him, Kirk Cousins should find Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson, and maybe even Ryant Grant and Vernon Davis open with good frequency. Cousins tends to play worse on the road, so perhaps he won't capitalize, but with the Giants phasing Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie out of the lineup for some inexplicable reason, the wideouts should be running open often against the Giants garbage remainder cornerbacks.

Detroit vs. Green Bay

Open: 42.5 O/U, DET -8.5
Press time: 43 O/U, DET -7

For Green Bay, it's only Jamaal Williams I care about. The spread and all conventional wisdom say that this will be a problematic game flow for Williams, but in such a meaningless game with such battered personnel, I'm not convinced that Green Bay will even attempt to play catch up if they fall far behind. So I like Williams' chances of getting big volume against a bad defense in garbage time. Sounds like a nice tournament play to me, and a great flex option in season-long formats.

For Detroit, the options are more numerous, though it'd be difficult to name any runners among them. Matthew Stafford is a high-floor, high-ceiling play at home against a bad Packers pass defense, and Marvin Jones probably carries my top projection among his pass catchers. I'm not concerned about any receivers encroaching on Jones' role as a sideline and downfield target, though Golden Tate and Eric Ebron might need to fight over the targets on over-the-middle routes, somewhat. Both players still have strong tournament appeal at the least.

Rams vs. San Francisco

Open: 43.5 O/U, LAR -6
Press time: 43.5 O/U, SF -4

I'm buying pretty much all the Jimmy Garoppolo, Carlos Hyde, and Marquise Goodwin I can for this week. I think all three would have had big games regardless, but that they might get a crack as the Rams backup defense makes me very high on them. I also think George Kittle projects reasonably well, but that he got just three targets last week illustrates how low his floor could be.

For the Rams, Sean Mannion is an interesting GPP play to me in DFS. I didn't like him as a prospect, but he's had a few years of practice reps and specifically worked with the group of receivers he'll play with in this game, so we don't have to worry about rusty rapport with Tavon Austin, Pharoh Cooper, Josh Reynolds, and Mike Thomas. Todd Gurley's inactivity and the endless injury history of backup running back Malcolm Brown has me wondering if Austin will play wide receiver as much as running back. I'm high on Cooper and Reynolds as prospects, so I hope Austin sticks to running back. He would complicate Cooper's projection in the slot if he's playing wideout. A promising if overlooked prospect at this point, I would love Cooper's chances for a big game as long as he's getting snaps. He was a dominant high-volume receiver in college and has standout running skills.

Denver vs. Kansas City

Open: 39 O/U, DEN -1.5
Press time: 38 O/U, DEN -4

It seems like we can never figure out C.J. Anderson for more than a couple weeks at a time before he inevitably pulls out the rug from under us again, but *knock on wood* as of lately he's been feasting as both a runner and pass catcher, and here he gets a home matchup against an exhibition game opponent likely to play many of its backups. The Chiefs defense might have been vulnerable to Anderson to begin with, so if backups are getting snaps I just can't see how Anderson wouldn't be one of the top-projected running backs on the slate. I would like Demaryius Thomas here, but I'd give the edge to any backup defense over Paxton Lynch.

Baltimore vs. Cincinnati

Open: 40.5 O/U, BAL -9.5
Press time: 40 O/U, BAL -9.5

I like Alex Collins quite a bit as the workhorse runner on a heavy home favorite. That Vontaze Burfict is out for Cincinnati can't hurt any. If the spread proves sound, it would likely entail scoring opportunities for the Baltimore passing game, namely Mike Wallace and Ben Watson, but it's difficult to envision much passing yardage for Baltimore. I wouldn't bother with anyone but Collins in DFS, for what it's worth.

A.J. Green is too good to completely rule out in any case, but even as far as tournament considerations go, this looks like one of the worst settings possible for Green. Baltimore's pass defense has been tough all year, but especially tough at home. It's difficult to imagine Andy Dalton staying afloat.

Miami vs. Buffalo

Open: 43 O/U, BUF -2.5
Press time: 42.5 O/U, BUF -2

Kenyan Drake was a dud last week, but he didn't actually play poorly. The Dolphins just didn't give him the ball. Despite Miami's underdog status, I'm optimistic that Drake will get his volume in this one. Sometimes it's a chicken-or-the-egg scenario when you consider whether a running back had a small workload due to losing or if they were losing because of the running back's light workload – this is one case where you almost know Miami will lose if they don't feed Drake. Maybe DeVante Parker can get something going against Buffalo's short corners, but Jarvis Landry easily has the best matchup among Dolphins pass catchers against a Buffalo defense that pretty much gives away the slot.

LeSean McCoy would likely be in for a big game if Buffalo emerges victorious here, and his status as the favorite solidifies his projection here. McCoy is playing at a very high level right now, and the stakes dictate that Buffalo feed him as much as possible against a defense that's proven vulnerable to lesser running backs than McCoy.

Tennessee vs. Jacksonville

Open: 41 O/U, TEN -5
Press time: 41.5 O/U, TEN -2.5

Derrick Henry will be a popular DFS pick with DeMarco Murray (knee) out, as his deflated price against a Jags team with little to play for makes him a matter of major intrigue. Tennessee is the home favorite, and Henry safely projects for 18 carries, and as many as 30. All conventional wisdom says he's a fine pick, intimidating as the Jaguars might otherwise be. I happen to be high on Henry as a prospect, always have been, so I'm optimistic for him.

For the Jaguars, I probably won't bother with anyone given their lack of stake in this game's outcome. If I was to use anyone, though, it would probably be Dede Westbrook. As a Day 3 pick rookie he might be at that sweet spot where he gets a full workload despite the insignificance of the contest to Jacksonville.

Seattle vs. Arizona

Open: 41 O/U, SEA -7
Press time: 38 O/U, SEA -9

Russell Wilson was a bitter disappointment the last two weeks, but I think he bounces back with a big game here. The Arizona run defense is good enough to stop the Seattle ground game, increasing Wilson's usage through the air and the ground both. I'm optimistic about his rushing prospects largely because he should see more man coverage from Arizona than he did against Dallas last week, which should result in fewer spies for Wilson to run around.

As has been the general case this year, Doug Baldwin is the main target between the twenties and Jimmy Graham is pretty much the only one within the twenties. Baldwin's outlook is helped by his ability to avoid Patrick Peterson in the slot, which in such cases would likely make Peterson the problem of Paul Richardson, assuming Arizona regards Richardson as a greater threat than Tyler Lockett.

Larry Fitzgerald is the only Cardinal you're hopefully considering, and he did well the last time he and Drew Stanton faced off against the Seahawks. I'm choosing to go after different targets in DFS, but I can't actually make a case against Fitzgerald. He's done well lately and it's difficult to see what could change that here.

Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans

Open: 50 O/U, NO -9
Press time: 49 O/U, NO -5

If Tampa Bay can force a shootout here, it would likely result in monstrous game for all of Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and Drew Brees. If the Buccaneers faceplant, then Brees and Kamara take a hit due to the consequent decreased passing projections, but at least one of Ingram, Kamara, and Thomas would still be capable of a monster game, and all three are all but assured a good floor in this, a game where New Orleans has something to gain by securing a win. Because of the off chance that Jameis Winston makes this game competitive, the Saints are a team I'll try to get decent exposure to in tournaments.

A strong tournament day for the Saints players would probably require a good tournament day from Winston, as it's hard to imagine how else the Buccaneers could force the issue of urgency. Mike Evans is talented enough and sees enough targets to justify in a tournament lineup, but you absolutely hate the matchup with Marshon Lattimore. If DeSean Jackson (foot) is out, I think you can like Chris Godwin and Cameron Brate as tournament plays.

Peyton Barber is a player I'm low on as a prospect, but he's been reasonably productive lately and might have some long-shot appeal for the fact that he might get carry volume against a vulnerable Saints run defense if the Buccaneers make it a close game. Barber would be at risk of disappearance due to game flow reasons otherwise.

Atlanta vs. Carolina

Open: 47 O/U, ATL -3
Press time: 45 O/U, ATL -3.5

A dome game with one of the highest over/unders, this game looks like one to attack in DFS. Julio Jones is the headliner. He's made a habit of taking a torch to the Carolina secondary, and that dynamic is amplified by Carolina's stout run defense, which all but compels the Falcons to feed Julio. In what's otherwise been a useless fantasy season I think you can find reason to like Matt Ryan in this context. It's probably too much to ask for more than 300 yards and two touchdowns, but I think something like that is well within reach.

The Carolina side has four interesting pieces. Cam Newton is always a high-upside option, and this setting strikes me as a favorable one. Both teams have something to play for, and it's indoors. Unless you think the game is low scoring or expect Atlanta to win easily, you almost have to love Cam this week. I think it's easy to make the case that he's the top QB projection this week along with Russell Wilson. Devin Funchess is ice cold right now, but he's a hulking figure that Atlanta's 5-foot-10 corners probably can't box out. Greg Olsen has a ceiling as high as any tight end this week due to the chance that he is the top pass catcher in one of the week's highest-scoring offenses. All of Funchess, Olsen, and Christian McCaffrey stand to see an extra target or two with Damiere Byrd hurt. McCaffrey has arguably the best projection of any skill position player for Carolina, as the Panthers will be more dependent on him than ever in one of its highest-scoring contexts. That he has good momentum right now is further reason to like McCaffrey here.

Chargers vs. Oakland

Open: 44 O/U, LAC -7.5
Press time: 42 O/U, LAC -7

Melvin Gordon should be suited up in this one, and that the Chargers have a real stake in this game gives reason to think Gordon will get just about as much work as he can handle so long as the game is competitive. That the game might not be competitive and that Gordon might only be able to handle so much means he has a low floor despite the high upside that normally comes with a workhorse runner playing as a heavy home favorite against one of the league's worst defenses. If Gordon is limited or otherwise held back, Branden Oliver would be an interesting dart play with Austin Ekeler unable to carry the ball due to a hand injury.

Similarly, if Gordon is held back or unproductive for whatever reason, Keenan Allen would stand to majorly benefit from a volume boost. Oakland shut down Allen earlier this year – perhaps Oakland's big cornerback personnel is a less than ideal matchup for Allen, who relies on his size a fair amount in the slot – but this is a case where usage and skill generally compel you to bet on Allen. If Allen doesn't have a big game, at least one of Tyrell Williams or Antonio Gates almost need to. For none of these things to happen would be to all but doom the Chargers to a loss. But I don't think Philip Rivers is on the losing end of this one.