Matchup Edge: Fournette Rebound

Jets vs. Kansas City

Open: 44 O/U, KC -4
Press time: 43.5 O/U, KC -3

While the low tempos of these two offenses reduces the chances of a shootout, there are enough talented players with favorable enough matchups that there should be some fantasy value to extract from this game. Robby Anderson is the hottest name among them after a brilliant 146-yard, two-touchdown showing against a tough Carolina defense, and there is a sound basis in his looming popularity. The non-Marcus Peters corners for the Chiefs are no good, and that Peters doesn't shadow receivers means the Jets should be able to run Anderson away from him precisely as often as they want to. If Anderson is stationed away from Peters, it would likely leave the Peters assignment with Jermaine Kearse, since Chad Hansen projects as the primary slot receiver. Austin Seferian-Jenkins has a fine enough projection against a Chiefs defense that's allowed 8.9 yards per target to tight ends, though he's slowed down a bit lately.

One of Bilal Powell or Matt Forte might do something useful against Chiefs defense that's been mediocre against the run at best, but their workload split in a low-tempo setting makes me want to stay away in DFS.

Kareem Hunt is a running back I'm generally buying again this week despite his recent struggles. The absence of Charcandrick West boosts Hunt's usage floor a bit and provides some reassurance against the tempo issue. The matchup is a middling one – the Jets have limited running backs to just 3.7 yards per carry – but they've also allowed 6.5 yards per target, and Hunt's talent is going to reappear in the box score eventually. The broader struggles of the Chiefs offense has been the main issue for him, and it remains the primary concern in this game.

It turns out that Alex Smith might have been the same player as ever all this time, and the Houston and Oakland pass defenses might merely be much worse than we expected. Tyreek Hill's utilization remains questionable as Kansas City generally limits him to shorter and intermediate routes, and the offense otherwise has no ability to push downfield. Travis Kelce is the only Kansas City pass catcher I'd have much interest in, talented as Hill might be. The Jets rookie safeties have the disadvantage in the matchup, and Kansas City should be short enough on alternatives that they're forced to depend on Kelce to some extent. Then again, the same was true last week.

Miami vs. Denver

Open: 38 O/U, MIA -1
Press time: 40 O/U, DEN -1.5

This is a bleak matchup between two garbage teams, but there might be some cheap fantasy utility to take from this game all the same. The Broncos offense is generally one of the more uptempo offenses in the league, and the Miami defense is bad enough to let them move the ball. Trevor Siemian's return is an upgrade over Paxton Lynch and Brock Osweiler, so I think he makes sense as a tournament play against a Dolphins cornerback rotation that can't cover Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders.

There's a theoretical opportunity in the running game for the Denver offense, too, though harnessing that for fantasy purposes is made difficult by the persisting workload split between Devontae Booker and the lesser C.J. Anderson. Booker and even Anderson would have some intrigue here if it could be assured that the other wouldn't get in the way, but even against a bad defense it's hard to convince yourself that there will be enough to go around for both. They make enough sense in season-long formats given our perpetual desperation at running back, but I'll probably look elsewhere for GPP options in DFS.

The most interesting player on the Miami side is Kenyan Drake. Damien Williams is out, of course, as are run-stopping Denver linemen Derek Wolfe and Domata Peko. Shane Ray (illness/wrist) is also listed as questionable. Particularly if the Broncos can dictate some tempo in the game, Drake should project for a big workload, and that might be true regardless of how the game flows.

That Jarvis Landry will deal with Chris Harris could funnel a few targets away from Landry and toward DeVante Parker or Kenny Stills, both of whom have upgraded projections due to the absence of Aqib Talib. Everything about the Miami passing game has been brutally ugly this year, and the situation is too dysfunctional to give a reliable projection to Stills or Parker, but opportunity and matchup should be in their favor.

Buffalo vs. New England

Open: 49 O/U, NE -9
Press time: 48.5 O/U, NE -9

With two of the highest-tempo offenses on the slate, this game should be one to attack in DFS. Tyrod Taylor is typically at his best at home, which helps offset the intimidation of a Patriots defense that's quietly been good lately. If Tyrod can keep the game vaguely competitive, the paces of the two offenses could dictate a shootout scenario. If Tyrod is producing as a passer, it would almost certainly involve a productive day for rookie Zay Jones, who's flying under the radar as a high-usage wideout. Despite the brutal start to his career, Jones remains a promising prospect, and he's gained some traction of late with 13 catches and two touchdowns on 24 targets in the last three weeks. That included a touchdown against Marcus Peters last week.

LeSean McCoy is a risky DFS option due to New England's status as a heavy favorite, but his unique talent and ability to contribute as a pass catcher make him a strong tournament play, I think. In the scenario that the game is competitive at all, it would probably entail a fruitful game from McCoy, whose talent can transcend a tough matchup with enough usage.

We all know perfectly well that we shouldn't trust a single thing we think about the New England backfield at any point, yet it's so tempting to conclude, given recent evidence, that the Patriots running game has consolidated down to Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead, and increasingly at the expense of James White. If that remains the case in this game, both Lewis and Burkhead would project nicely as heavy favorites against a run defense that's been among the league's worst. Against a Bills defense with dubious slot coverage, Burkhead is a fine candidate to chip in as a pass catcher.

The Patriots passing game projects as a high-floor, high-ceiling option, and its usage these days is channeled relatively reliably through Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski. Perhaps their projections seem too good to be true in this game, but I'm betting they're true. Danny Amendola has subtle appeal as the clear third target against Buffalo's weak slot coverage. Tom Brady, of course, is the arguable QB1 this week.

Tennessee vs. Houston

Open: 42.5 O/U, TEN -7
Press time: 43 O/U, TEN -6.5

In this showdown of towering failure there is a lot that can go wrong – Tom Savage is a turnover machine and the Titans haven't been able to throw the ball against Cleveland or Indianapolis – but the ineptitude of both defenses raises the possibility of some useful fantasy production, particularly from the usual suspects.

Even with Savage's flaws, DeAndre Hopkins is one of the elite plays of the week against a Tennessee defense that remains among the least impressive at defending the pass. Hopkins got the better of Patrick Peterson two weeks ago, and earlier this year he torched Tennessee for 107 yards and a touchdown on ten receptions. Against a Titans defense that's better against the run than the pass, Hopkins' already enormous advantage could be amplified by a pass funnel. With eight targets in three of the last four weeks, Bruce Ellington should also benefit from those dynamics, though his effectiveness is questionable.

Lamar Miller has played well this year, but the Tennessee run defense is competent and Miller hasn't gotten much help generally. His skill and opportunity level make him useful in season-long formats at the least, however, and he's justifiable in tournaments, though I'll probably stay away myself.

I want nothing to do with the Titans offense, especially its running game, but I still believe in Marcus Mariota. Just not so much this year. Still, the Houston pass defense might be so bad that even this pointless Tennessee team might be able to throw on them. If that happens, you'd expect both Corey Davis and Delanie Walker to step up, since Rishard Matthews is hurting.

Atlanta vs. Minnesota

Open: 47.5 O/U, ATL -2.5
Press time: 47 O/U, ATL -3

If Atlanta keeps feeding Julio Jones the ball, you would have to give him the advantage against almost any corner in the league, let alone one that gave up two touchdowns to Marvin Jones last week. Julio is a different beast entirely, and that the game is played in a dome is further reassurance for Julio despite the imposing matchup. Mohamed Sanu has been the clear No. 2 pass catcher in this offense, and he's far enough ahead of the competition that you have to consider him a high-floor play in most matchups, probably including this one. The Minnesota defense is good enough, though, that I don't see much chance for a big game from Matt Ryan.

Devonta Freeman's return is great for the Atlanta offense, but a disaster for Tevin Coleman's fantasy owners. Particularly with this brutal matchup, I don't see much of a case for either player in DFS. You're probably firing up Freeman at least in season-long formats, though.

If Atlanta can score points, it should provoke a shootout response from the Vikings, who ought to be able to move the ball particularly given the absence of top Atlanta corner Desmond Trufant (concussion). Adam Thielen can get open against almost any corner, but playing on that dome turf should make his incredible route running especially effective. Stefon Diggs is probably who benefits most from Trufant's absence, and he's a great GPP and season-long play given the venue and the potential need for Minnesota to throw the ball. Case Keenum is one of my favorite GPP plays for all the same reasons.

I can't blame anyone for pursuing Latavius Murray's production given what he's done lately, but I easily prefer Jerick McKinnon in this matchup. His rare combination of speed and quickness should manifest particularly well on a turf floor like this, and if the Vikings need to throw the ball in this game then it should open up big play opportunities for McKinnon against an Atlanta defense that's funneled 90 targets to running backs in 11 games.

Green Bay vs. Tampa Bay

Open: 44 O/U, PK
Press time: 45 O/U, GB -2.5

Brett Hundley will be a trendy GPP play this week due to the exceptionally favorable matchup and his promising production from the Pittsburgh game, but understand that if Hundley produces it will be solely because the Buccaneers posed no resistance. Such was the case when Hundley made his big throws against Pittsburgh, as the Steelers forgot to cover Randall Cobb on his long touchdown, and corner Coty Sensabaugh completely botched his coverage on Davante Adams' long touchdown. The Buccaneeers are capable of even greater failure, but Hundley still can't throw at a defense unless his receivers are extremely open. Adams remains the best bet to see to such an outcome, though the Buccaneers probably can't cover Jordy Nelson, either. There's further hope for all of Hundley, Adams, and Nelson in the fact that Tampa will be without Vernon Hargreaves, Josh Robinson, and T.J. Ward.

Aaron Jones' practice participation this week spooked the Jamaal Williams owners out there, but even as a Williams skeptic I wouldn't feel threatened by Jones this week. His original prognosis implied he'd miss more time, so I'm not expecting Jones to play. Even though I don't think Williams will prove explosive on the ground, he should get big usage as long as Green Bay doesn't fall behind.

For Tampa Bay, the DFS prices on Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson are low enough that you can make the case for using either, but I'll probably fade the whole Tampa Bay offense as Jameis Winston makes his return from a shoulder injury. Without even taking into account the health of the shoulder, there's cause for concern over the question of whether Winston has any hint of timing in his first game back. He was doing badly enough before the injury.

Chicago vs. San Francisco

Open: 39.5 O/U, CHI -4.5
Press time: 41 O/U, CHI -3

Jimmy Garoppolo will be worth monitoring for scouting purposes in his starting debut for the 49ers, but the setting doesn't generally look favorable for him this week. Marquise Goodwin and Trent Taylor are the lead receivers for San Francisco, but the Bears defense might hold the advantage over both. Carlos Hyde easily projects best among 49ers players, and his high target counts in recent weeks make him a favorite GPP play of mine, and one of the top running back starts in season-long formats.

Just as Hyde is the top 49ers consideration, Jordan Howard is easily the top option on the Bears. The 49ers' uptempo approach should yield a big workload to Howard, who would project nicely against a 49ers defense allowing more fantasy points to running backs than any other. I can even understand rolling out Tarik Cohen as a PPR flex or big tournament consideration given that the 49ers have allowed seven yards per target to opposing running backs.

Otherwise, I think there is some GPP justification in considering Mitchell Trubisky, thanks to his running ability and the matchup with an uptempo opponent, but even more so wideout Dontrelle Inman. Inman has 22 targets over the last three games, and I find him a very intriguing GPP option against a 49ers defense allowing over eight yards per target to opposing wide receivers.

Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis

Open: 41 O/U, JAC -8.5
Press time: 40 O/U, JAC -9.5

Leonard Fournette has been a full practice participant all week, so perhaps his ankle is doing better than it was leading up to last week's loss to the Cardinals. If he is near full health, this would be a clear bounce-back spot for Fournette, and in that same scenario he'd arguably be the top running back play of the week. The Jaguars totaled ten sacks the last time they saw the Colts, so Jacksonville should dictate this game from start to finish and help out Fournette in particular with favorable time of possession and field positioning. The only other Jaguars offensive player I would bother with is Marqise Lee, who will almost certainly bounce back after Patrick Peterson limited him to two targets last week.

Baltimore vs. Detroit

Open: 41.5 O/U, BAL -3
Press time: 43.5 O/U, BAL -3

The Baltimore defense has been ruthless at home, and Matthew Stafford tends to be a bit worse outside of domes. I don't like this setup for the Detroit offense. Stafford has been good this year, and Marvin Jones has been a monster lately, but this Baltimore pass defense has two productive outside corners in Jimmy Smith and Brandon Carr that might be able to contain Jones. If I were targeting a Detroit pass catcher it would probably be Golden Tate, as he should avoid them in the slot. I won't be picking anyone from Detroit in DFS this week, though, and I would try not to use anyone but Tate and Jones in season-long formats.

The Baltimore side strikes me as more likely to have any fantasy utility, subtle as that might be. Alex Collins clearly is the go-to runner in this offense, and you would have reason to like him a great deal if you consider Baltimore the favorite in this one. I do. Against a Detroit defense that's struggled to stop the run since the loss of Haloti Ngata, I think Collins should provide a nice return as long as Stafford doesn't advance Detroit to an early lead. Danny Woodhead is back on the PPR radar, too, and he might see a good target volume if Darius Slay and Quadre Diggs are trouble for Mike Wallace and Jeremy Maclin, respectively.

Chargers vs. Cleveland

Open: 42.5 O/U, LAC -13
Press time: 44 O/U, LAC -13.5

The Chargers passing game, particularly Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen, figures to be very chalky in DFS this week, and probably for good reason. Cleveland's strong run defense tends to create a funnel toward its beatable pass defense, and Allen almost always goes as Rivers does. The Browns have allowed 22 touchdowns compared to six interceptions, so Rivers should be able to put something together. Browns slot corner Briean Boddy-Calhoun has generally been good this year, though, so Allen won't have a pushover matchup. That might push an extra target or two to Hunter Henry, who has a solid projection against a Browns defense allowing the second most fantasy points to tight ends.

With Melvin Gordon the deal is about the same as ever – he's not likely to play effectively, but his big workload as a home favorite projects for good scoring odds. As concerning as it is that the Browns have allowed just 3.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs, there's some reassurance for Gordon in the fact that the Browns have been more generous to running backs through the air, allowing 6.5 yards per target. Nonetheless, I'll probably stay away in DFS, as solid as the tournament utility might be.

Cleveland has at least a couple candidates to produce despite the strength of the Chargers pass rush and cornerbacks. That's largely because this projects to be one of the more uptempo games on the slate, but also because DeShone Kizer has looked improved since the return of Corey Coleman. He should look even better, then, with Josh Gordon joining the picture. While corners like Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams have done a very good job this year, they're at a major size disadvantage against Gordon. I'll be making a few tournament lineups with Gordon.

Otherwise, both Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson make good cases for tournament consideration, but given Cleveland's heavy underdog status I would prefer Duke, who's better all around but especially better as a pass catcher.

New Orleans vs. Carolina

Open: 47.5 O/U, NO -3.5
Press time: 48 O/U, NO -5.5

The thumb on Cam Newton's throwing hand was apparently bothering him against the Jets, which might help explain his disappointing showing in that setting. With Greg Olsen (foot) seemingly regressing in his comeback, whatever issue Newton might have with his thumb is compounded by a dearth of pass-catching options. Even if Marshon Lattimore (ankle) sits out, Devin Funchess alone probably can't carry Newton to a big game as a passer. But Funchess' projection is quite good even if Lattimore plays, in my opinion, since Funchess is a strong bet for double-digit targets and Lattimore likely wouldn't be more than 85 percent or so healthy.

Despite his shoulder issue, Christian McCaffrey projects for a busy day for the simple reason that Carolina figures to play from behind but badly lacks pass-catching options. If Olsen can't step up, McCaffrey projects all the better for pass-catching work. It's fair to question whether he's particularly efficient, but his quickness could play well on that turf. Jonathan Stewart will of course stumble around a bunch of times, but expecting much from him seems foolish these days.

For New Orleans, the usage is channeled so reliably that you can probably feel good about all of Michael Thomas, Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara so long as you consider New Orleans the clear favorite. I do, so I expect all three of them to provide good returns, even if they might lack ceiling against a competent Carolina defense. I'll probably resist picking Drew Brees, though, because I find some concern both in the matchup and the question of whether New Orleans will feel enough urgency to accumulate much pass attempt volume.

Oakland vs. Giants

Open: 41 O/U, OAK -7.5
Press time: 41.5 O/U, OAK -9

Geno Smith is strictly a punchline to mainstream football commentary, but particularly given the matchup I think we shouldn't rule him out as a surprisingly accessible fantasy option this week. Smith's early career struggles were just that – early in his career. His decision making was profoundly bad at times and his accuracy wavered, but such things aren't unusual for players of his age at the time, and he otherwise has an intriguing combination of athleticism and deep ball accuracy. Now in his fifth season, we probably shouldn't assume Smith is the same player he was in 2014. Even if he is, the Oakland defense might be bad enough to give him some cheap fantasy utility in this one.

Sterling Shepard's return is a big reassurance on that front, as the promising second-year slot wideout is the clear WR1 in this offense. He projects as the favorite over Oakland slot corner Travis Carrie, while Evan Engram projects for a bounce back against a Raiders defense allowing 7.9 yards per target to tight ends.

Orleans Darkwa or Wayne Gallman would be interesting plays given the matchup, but it's difficult to tell where the usage is headed there. Gallman seemed to gain some ground last week, though Darkwa has generally been ahead and a solidly productive player over the last seven weeks. I think Darkwa has some GPP appeal due to the off chance that he reestablishes himself as the clear lead ballcarrier.

Marshawn Lynch projects very nicely for the other side, and his usage is more assured than usual with Amari Cooper (concussion/ankle) and Michael Crabtree (suspension) both out. Lynch has run effectively all year and, while you do worry about the Oakland offense cratering without its receivers, limiting Lynch's opportunities in the process, I think you have to give Lynch the advantage against a defense that's allowed 4.2 yards per carry to running backs. Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington are both candidates to see more looks due to the receiver situation, but I don't feel like chasing either.

Seth Roberts might be a somewhat trendy punt option as the potential lead wideout for Oakland, and in such an outcome the opportunity level might dictate real value. The player is not good, however, and when a player as bad as Roberts gets a theoretical promotion it often proves to be only that – theoretical. Bad players have a way of wasting good opportunities, and Roberts is uniquely bad. I would rather try my luck with Cordarrelle Patterson, because he can at least run with the ball. The most widely used Oakland pass catcher this week figures to be the tight end, as Jared Cook faces off against the Giants' notoriously bad tight end pass defense with his target share projection at its highest possible level with Cooper and Crabtree out.

Arizona vs. Rams

Open: 45.5 O/U, LAR -6
Press time: 44.5 O/U, LAR -7

Adrian Peterson was probably Arizona's best bet for moving the ball against a Rams defense that's allowed 4.7 yards per carry to running backs and just 6.9 yards per pass, but a neck issue kept Peterson out of practice all week. If he's out, that leaves Blaine Gabbert that much more vulnerable to a defense that already had a decided advantage over him. Aaron Donald, Robert Quinn, and Connor Barwin are going to be a problem.

Ricky Seals-Jones' unsustainable production has carried Gabbert through the last two weeks, so even a merely good game from RSJ would put Gabbert's projection at peril. Still, the rookie tight end is seeing enough looks at receiver that I think you can project him as a candidate to poach the usage that used to go to John Brown and J.J. Nelson when this was a downfield passing attack under Carson Palmer. Gabbert is a checkdown quarterback, so a bigger security blanket like RSJ is a crutch he has continued reason to lean on. I can't blame anyone for firing up RSJ in season-long or DFS tournaments, because he could have a good game even if Gabbert doesn't. Larry Fitzgerald is otherwise the only pass catcher of note, and his usage could be so high that we might not need to be overly concerned with the prospect or likelihood of inefficiency. Nickell Robey-Coleman has been one of the better slot corners this year, but you wonder if his 5-foot-7, sub-180-pound frame holds him back against Fitzgerald, who's significantly bigger than most slot wideouts.

Particularly because these two teams play with higher tempos than most, there should be fantasy value to take from this Rams offense. Patrick Peterson will almost certainly shadow Sammy Watkins, but Watkins is so talented that I think it makes sense to stick with him in season-long formats since Robert Woods remains out, and I think he's a justifiable GPP plays in DFS. Otherwise, Cooper Kupp has a high-floor projection with a potentially high ceiling, particularly in the event that Peterson's coverage funnels targets away from Watkins. Rookie fourth-round pick Josh Reynolds would also be a fine candidate to benefit in that scenario after seeing six targets on over 60 snaps last week. Reynolds is quietly the Rams' best red-zone target.

Todd Gurley has a high floor and high ceiling, especially since the Peterson injury might make the game script more favorable. Gurley didn't need any help after torching the Cardinals for 154 yards and a touchdown from scrimmage in their previous matchup, but the absence of linebacker Deone Bucannon is a bonus.

Seattle vs. Philadelphia

Open: 48 O/U, PHI -6
Press time: 47 O/U, PHI -5

The Philadelphia secondary still lacks pedigree, but the Eagles have done a great job against the pass of late, largely on the strength of its pass rush. The Eagles have generally seen bad quarterback play in the past couple months, though, so Russell Wilson should be able to produce if the pass rush doesn't completely overwhelm him. As has been the case all year, the Seattle running game should be a complete zero against a Philadelphia run defense that's been the best in the league at stopping the run, holding opposing running backs to just 467 yards (2.8 YPC) to this point. Doug Baldwin is easily the best Seattle pass catcher and would most reliably project for production if Wilson is able to produce, but Paul Richardson otherwise appears to have established himself as the second target over Tyler Lockett. Jimmy Graham has a near monopoly on the red-zone passing touchdowns for Seattle, so as Wilson goes so should Graham.

This would normally be an intimidating matchup for the Philadelphia offense, but with Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman out this Eagles passing game should be just fine. If the game against Denver from earlier this year is any indication, Philadelphia is a good bet to come out with a uniquely tailored game plan for Seattle that hasn't necessarily shown up on tape yet this year. Even if there are no smoke and mirrors, Carson Wentz and his pass catchers have the personnel advantage, and the strength of the Seattle run defense could funnel a bit more production to the passing game.

Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery are the co-No. 1 targets in this passing game, so they project well whenever Wentz does. Sherman's presence might normally push some targets away from Jeffery, but with him out Jeffery should have the advantage over whatever corners he faces. Nelson Agholor doesn't see enough target volume to be more than a flex type in season-long or a tournament consideration in DFS, but his highly elusive nature could be a uniquely tough matchup for a Seattle secondary that looks to jam aggressively.

Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh

Open: 43 O/U, PIT -6.5
Press time: 43.5 O/U, PIT -5

Games are liable to be low-scoring when they feature two AFC North teams, and the lower temperatures that come with these later weeks can't help that any. Both of these defenses happen to be good this year, too.

Joe Mixon looked the best he has all year against a tough Browns defense last week, but the Steelers probably pose a tougher test. Not only is Pittsburgh more capable of dictating game script than the Browns, raising the chances that Cincinnati abandons the run due to falling behind, but they've been one of the least charitable run defenses in the past two months. The Steelers run defense has mostly clamped down since its embarrassing showing against Jordan Howard early this year, and at this point the Steelers are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Mixon probably has mainstream utility in season-long formats due to his role, but the setting generally doesn't appear favorable. If Mixon benefits from better circumstances than expected, it might have something to do with injuries to Ryan Shazier, Joe Haden, and Mike Mitchell.

A.J. Green projects well enough against a Pittsburgh defense that's allowing 8.0 yards per target to wide receivers this year. Particularly if the Cincinnati running game goes nowhere, Green should see a lot of targets, and the Steelers might be more vulnerable to him than usual with their injuries. It might be greedy to expect much from Andy Dalton, however.

Juju Smith-Schuster's return pretty much negates whatever short-term utility there was with Martavis Bryant. The Cincinnati outside coverage might be a bit tougher than the inside coverage, so that might funnel an extra couple targets toward JSS. Given the stakes and the familiarity of the two opponents, the game should set up as high-usage scenarios for Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell, though the returns might not be as high as usual given that the Bengals have generally contained both players better than most teams. That fact makes me mostly disinterested in Ben Roethlisberger for DFS purposes.