Job Battles: Gordon's Replacements

Not all teams have started training camp yet, but a few situations are beginning to stir up all the same. You can read the previous breakdowns of the quarterback and running back competitions ahead here, while the receivers and tight ends are written up here.

The players are listed left to right in their presumed descending order of fantasy value. The blurbs themselves are in no particular order in this post.

Phillip Lindsay (wrist) vs. Royce Freeman, RB, DEN

Lindsay enjoyed the 2018 production that most figured would go to Freeman, but Freeman played reasonably well despite how disappointing he was for his investors. With a new coaching staff in town and Lindsay recovering from an offseason wrist surgery, it's fair to wonder if Freeman might gain ground, particularly given his pedigree advantage as a third-round pick facing off against a formerly undrafted rookie.

Lindsay is ready to defend the belt, though, as he was present and taking handcuffs even on the first day of Broncos training camp. If both players are healthy, then we need to attempt to project them on the basis of merit, and the evidence for now says Lindsay's merit safely outranks Freeman's. Indeed, while a Week 7 high ankle sprain cost Freeman two games and may have limited him somewhat even after his return, Freeman struggled to decisively win out playing time at Devontae Booker's expense, so Freeman's owners need to worry about Booker before they set their sights on Lindsay.

Freeman likely lost snaps to Booker due to passing down limitations, as Freeman's 20 targets resulted in just 14 catches for 72 yards (70 percent catch rate, 3.6 YPT). Booker, on the other hand, caught 73.9 percent of his career targets at 6.1 YPT. The good news for Freeman is that Booker's numbers aren't actually good, and Freeman was effective as a receiver in his last two years at Oregon (88.1 percent catch rate, 7.3 YPT). Still, Freeman is unlikely to become better than average as a pass catcher, while Lindsay could prove above average after catching 117 passes at Colorado. For that reason, given Lindsay's likely ability to otherwise match Freeman as a runner, I can't see how Freeman overtakes Lindsay as the lead runner.

As much as Lindsay might appear lucky for averaging 3.05 yards before contact per carry, which led the league according to PFF, Lindsay found space on such a reliable basis last year that there's a substantial chance that he'll always rank among the league leaders in average yards before contact on the basis of skill. But even if not, Lindsay has efficiency to spare after averaging 5.4 yards per carry. His average yardage before contact could drop a full yard and he'd still outpace Freeman's 2018 rushing average by 0.4. Since Freeman's broken tackle rate ranked in the top 96th percentile last year and he still only averaged 4.0 yards per carry, it seems to me that Lindsay would generally outproduce Freeman as a runner even if we took bad luck as a given for Lindsay.

But because their skill sets are different and because they both pose their own substantial merit, it's easy to imagine a workload split between Lindsay and Freeman that occurs on a practical basis where they lean on Lindsay between the 20s and during hurry-up situations, while Freeman spends a disproportionate number of his snaps on short-yardage work and the clock-killing carries in cases of a protected lead. This would leave Freeman with a narrow margin of error in the game script, rendering him a liability when the Broncos are playing from behind, but it could afford red-zone touchdowns in games where the Broncos establish a lead.

As previously alluded to, Booker needs to improve just to maintain his roughly 1/3 snap share from last year. Freeman could improve as a pass catcher with time, and Booker's receiving production from last year (74.5 percent catch rate, 5.4 YPT) isn't good enough to earn him any leash.

Austin Ekeler vs. Justin Jackson, RB, LAC

If Melvin Gordon holds out into the regular season, then the construction of the entire Chargers offense changes profoundly. Gordon averaged roughly 47 snaps, 17.4 carries, and 5.0 targets per game over the last three years, and his potential absence coincides with the free agency departure of Tyrell Williams, who accounted for 1/5 of the Chargers' air yardage last year. It would likely take more than one player for the Chargers to account for the resulting slack.

Ekeler and Jackson are the candidates to replace Gordon, and both players have their promising indications. I think it's safe to say that Ekeler is the clear leader between the two, though, even after Jackson surpassed double-digit PPR points three times from Weeks 13 through 16. Ekeler looks like one of the league's best running backs generally, as through 153 career carries he has 814 yards (5.3 YPC) and five touchdowns while catching 75 percent of his targets at 7.8 YPT. For as much as we might not expect volume from the 5-foot-9, 200-pound Ekeler, we'd sell him short to expect anything but top-grade efficiency.

Ekeler is toolsy despite his obscure prospect background, and in hindsight it's easy to make a case for him as a Day 2 talent despite going undrafted out of Western State. At his pro day Ekeler ran a 4.48-second 40 to go with a 40.5-inch vertical and 128-inch broad jump. He was outrageously productive in college, totaling 5,857 yards (6.2 YPC) and 55 touchdowns in 40 games while adding 115 receptions for 1,215 yards and eight scores.

Jackson has a number of encouraging prospect traits, too, and if nothing else he showed improbable endurance at Northwestern after taking 1,142 carries and 122 receptions over four years at under 200 pounds. Jackson only averaged 4.8 yards per carry in college, though, and while Jackson posted an excellent agility score at the combine (10.88), he did so at a lesser body density (6-foot, 199 pounds) than Ekeler, and Jackson couldn't match Ekeler in any of the 40 (4.52 seconds), vertical (38.5 inches), or broad jump (122 inches).

But as previously mentioned, Ekeler's light build means that Jackson will need to play some substantial role if Gordon is out, even if Ekeler is the clear lead. Ekeler broke down a bit with a groin injury and concussion last year, limiting him to 348 snaps in 14 games, so he might be hard-pressed to contribute more than 500 snaps in a season. Jackson played 149 snaps while Ekeler and Gordon combined for 873 snaps last year, so in the hypothetical where Gordon sits out all year, something like 400 snaps might be Jackson's snap floor. Based on last year's per-snap usage, Jackson would in that case project for something around 134 carries and 51 targets. If you again apply last year's per-touch averages, Jackson would project for around 549 yards rushing and 40 receptions for 362 yards receiving. If Ekeler plays 500 snaps in this hypothetical with his career per-snap and per-touch rates applied, he would project for around 745 yards on 140 carries to go along with 61 catches for 629 yards on 81 targets.

Marquise Brown (foot) vs. Chris Moore vs. Miles Boykin, WR, BAL

Brown opened training camp on the NFI list due to the Lisfranc fracture he had surgically repaired in January. No setbacks have been reported, but we're past the six-month time frame that was initially suggested as a prognosis, so the anxiousness will only build with each practice that Brown sits out from this point. For now, the only additional details offered are those like the one reported by NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, who said Thursday that Brown "should be back on the field in a few weeks."

Ravens training camp ends August 13, and three weeks from Thursday would be August 8. Basically, it seems that there is a significant chance that Brown misses all of training camp. That's not to say all of the preseason, which ends on August 29 for Baltimore, but it won't be good for Brown's rookie-season projection if he misses most or all of training camp. The specter of aggravation will loom for some time as Brown attempts to bounce back from his injury, so there is a lot working against him right now despite the immense talent he offers at a low price that figures to lower further yet as he misses more time.

If Brown is not himself or is otherwise unable to serve as starter this year, then the top outside Baltimore wide receiver might be the unheralded Moore. Willie Snead and Seth Roberts are presumably competing for slot snaps, so if Brown's progress stalls then Moore will only need to beat out the likes of rookie third-round pick Boykin, second-year fourth-round pick Jaleel Scott, and second-year fifth-round pick Jordan Lasley. Scott and Lasley have been distinct disappointments until now, so it should mainly be the rookie Boykin that Moore would need to beat out as a fourth-year player.

There's no guarantee that Moore pulls it off. He was a very effective deep ball receiver at Cincinnati in college, scoring 26 touchdowns and averaging 19.3 yards per catch on 119 receptions, but he saw just 63 targets on his last 841 NFL snaps, meaning he's either blocking a lot or he's likely struggling to create separation. Perhaps Moore will prove a late bloomer in his fourth season, but if not then the Ravens might have no choice but to turn to Boykin, who offers incredible athleticism even if his skills are raw in the meantime. At 6-foot-4, 220 pounds with 4.42 speed, a 43.5-inch vertical, 140-inch broad jump, and 10.84 agility score, Boykin can at least get the safety's attention. It'd probably take something like a 14-team league before either player got on the radar at the moment.

Breshad Perriman vs. Justin Watson vs. Scott Miller, WR, TB

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are locked into the lead receiver roles in Tampa, with Godwin likely taking most of the slot work when they go three-wide. Additionally, O.J. Howard's standout talent as a pass catcher demands a greater target share than the average tight end. If Jameis Winston enjoys a breakout season under new coach Bruce Arians, though, then there might be room for a fourth target to make a mainstream fantasy impact in Tampa.

Tight end Cameron Brate is actually a candidate to contribute some slot snaps in his return from a torn hip labrum, but Arians historically marginalizes the tight end position a bit, so at a glance it's difficult to see how Brate could fit in. If Brate isn't getting on the field for regular two-tight end looks, then a third receiver could step up after Evans and Godwin.

The three top candidates for that scenario are Perriman, Watson, and Miller, all of whom are standout athletes but with varying skill sets between them. Perriman somewhat infamously logged a 4.26-second 40-yard dash at his UCF pro day, Miller ran a 4.36-second 40 at the most recent Bowling Green pro day, and Watson checks in as 'the slow one' with a 4.44-second 40. Perriman primarily projects as an outside receiver, while Watson and Miller project better inside than Perriman.

Perriman easily has the best draft pedigree as a former first-round pick, and in Cleveland last year he finally showed some promise after suffering through three years of injuries and drops in Baltimore. It was only a 10-game, 25-target sample, but Perriman caught 16 passes for 340 yards and two scores, scoring or exceeding 75 yards receiving in the final four games. With Tampa he gets to return to his home state in a downfield-oriented offense that could use his speed. If Godwin is playing in the slot and Howard is lining up at tight end, then it might be outside receiver where the most snaps are up for grabs in Tampa. If so, we would probably want to rank Perriman first in this group.

If Godwin plays outside more than expected or the Buccaneers run lots of trips and four-wide to open up more slot snaps, though, then that would favor Watson or Miller at Perriman's expense. Watson's strong pro day and elite college production earned him an early fifth-round selection by Tampa in last year's draft, and he's reportedly practiced extensively as a slot receiver so far this offseason. Miller has the speed to hurt a defense deep with a sub-4.4, though his slight frame (5-foot-9, 174 pounds) might lead Tampa to move him inside to escape jams and create easy YAC opportunities. Like Watson, Miller was uncommonly productive in college, leading Tampa to select him in the sixth round of the most recent draft.