Job Battles: Quarterbacks and Running Backs

We'll be keeping track of the jobs battles going on around the league during training camp, with this initial post being the biggest one given the backlog of offseason information to sort through. The subsequent posts will be based on the news that occurs between now and then.

Because there's a lot to get through, I'm breaking up this week's edition into two articles, with quarterbacks and running backs today and wide receivers/tight ends tomorrow. The blurbs are grouped by position and then sorted by alphabetical order of team location.

Quarterback

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Josh Rosen, MIA

Who knows whether new coach Brian Flores will prefer Rosen's prospect pedigree or Fitzpatrick's (perceived, anyway) veteran stability, but both quarterbacks are question marks in an open-ended scenario that could go a number of ways. You would think that given his career-long turnover issues it would be difficult for Fitzpatrick to start 16 games even if he opens the year as a starter. So even if Fitzpatrick starts Week 1, he strikes me as the less likely of the two to hold on to the job all year. Rosen was uniquely bad last year for the Cardinals, but still safely better than incumbent starter Sam Bradford, indicating that Rosen's struggles might be due entirely to circumstances.

As a Rosen believer I have some amount of faith that he outplays the aged and always below average Fitzpatrick, but some coaches get weird for old players sometimes.

Running Back

Ito Smith vs. Qadree Ollison vs. Brian Hill, ATL

Ollison (2019) and Hill (2017) are both fifth-round picks, while Smith was perhaps a bit of a reach as a fourth-round pick last year. Each of the three backs is different – Smith is a 200-pound space back, Ollison is a lumbering fullback tweener at 6-foot-1, 228 pounds, and Hill somewhere between them both at 6-foot-1, 219 pounds.

Hill is the underdog of the trio but that might be worth reconsideration. He has good linear explosiveness for his build with a 4.54-second 40 and 125-inch broad jump, and in his limited showing last year he impressed with 20 carries for 157 yards. Smith played more last year but was basically a leak in the boat, turning 90 carries into 315 yards and four touchdowns while taking 32 targets for 27 receptions for 152 yards (4.8 YPT).

As the newest toy in the group Ollison is the presumed primary threat to Smith in the race to back up Devonta Freeman. The Falcons must have liked something about Ollison to pick him in the fifth round, and he had an interesting if not encouraging prospect profile given his big freshman season at Pittsburgh (1,121 yards and 11 touchdowns), but he totaled only 525 yards over the next two years before breaking back out as a senior with 1,213 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2018. The lull in between can be somewhat forgiven since he played behind James Conner in 2016, but less so for playing behind undrafted free agent Darrin Hall in 2017. Ollison's workout metrics were predictably concerning, though his 228-pound build helped somewhat rationalize his 4.58-second 40, 29.5-inch vertical, 114-inch broad jump, and 11.84 agility score.

Smith has the most recent usage and the greatest team investment generally as a fourth-round pick, but his poor production might leave him vulnerable to the other two. Ollison is the most novel of the three given his recent arrival, but there are real limitations to his prospect profile, and Hill was probably the better prospect coming out of Wyoming as a fifth-round pick. This is an important situation to monitor particularly given Freeman's recent durability issues, but this is also one of those cases where a Freeman injury might merely lead to an ineffective committee rather than a breakout opportunity for any of these three. As much as they each have their selling points, they all face substantial questions too.

Gus Edwards vs. Justice Hill vs. Kenneth Dixon, BAL

Mark Ingram is the lead back in Baltimore and it's not up for negotiation. The question of what goes on otherwise in the backfield is up in the air, however, and the answer could carry mainstream fantasy implications. The Ravens figure to run often and well given the run-favorable scripts provided by their traditionally great defense, and even if Ingram stays healthy all year there might be room for a second fantasy factor.

Despite a one-dimensional skill set, Edwards feels like the second-most established behind Ingram after a strong rookie season where he ran for 718 yards and two touchdowns (5.2 YPC) as an undrafted free agent out of Rutgers. Edwards was always an explosive college runner at Miami (FL) prior to Rutgers, but injuries did a lot to smother what was a subtly encouraging prospect profile for the bruiser. Edwards is particularly useful as a hammer up the middle to complement the edge rush threat posed by Lamar Jackson on the read option. Even if he wouldn't be that useful to other teams, Edwards is a perfect fit for Baltimore on those play calls. He hits like a ton of bricks and is almost automatic for positive yardage. Particularly if the Ravens have a lead to preserve, it's easy to imagine Edwards relieving Ingram and choking out the tired defense to the game's conclusion. Unfortunately for Edwards' fantasy upside, he is not a consideration for pass-catching tasks.

Those would seemingly be left to Ingram, Hill, and Dixon. Hill will make the team as a rookie fourth-round pick, while at three years removed from his own fourth-round selection Dixon is a wildcard in the group. If Dixon makes the team he could prove formidable competition for Hill, a 21-year-old who weighed under 180 pounds just a few years ago. If Dixon doesn't make the team, though, then Hill should prove able for the tasks it might entail. He was a precociously productive player at Oklahoma State, beating out then-senior Chris Carson for the starting job even as a true freshman, and Hill's burning athleticism softens the margin of error for his skill set as a rookie.

LeSean McCoy vs. Frank Gore vs. T.J. Yeldon vs. Devin Singletary, BUF

The Bills demanded unrealistically high trade prices for McCoy the last two years, and given his declining utility and the team's current logjam at running back, it seems like they're just holding on to him at this point on the principle of rationalizing a sunk cost. Maybe they stick with him this year, but any of Gore, Yeldon, or Singletary seem overqualified to serve as an RB4 and potential healthy scratch. So we'll see.

After averaging 3.2 yards per carry last year and 4.0 per carry the year prior, the 30-year-old McCoy suddenly seems about as old as the 36-year-old Gore somehow. No Buffalo runner thrived behind that bad offensive line last year, to be fair, but Gore doesn't need as much aid from the benefit of the doubt after turning 156 carries into 722 yards for Miami last year (4.6 YPC). Yeldon, too brings solid credentials despite a rocky four-year start to his career in Jacksonville. For whatever his consistency issues, Yeldon is a 25-year-old former second-round pick with passing down skills and a career average of 4.0 yards per carry.

Then there's Singletary, the rookie out of Florida Atlantic who the Bills selected immediately after the much-hyped David Montgomery in Chicago. Singletary is smaller than the competition (5-foot-8, 203 pounds) and tested very poorly at the combine (4.66-second 40, 11.72 agility score), so it's fair to worry about his ability to compete with McCoy, Gore, and Yeldon, all of whom were big-time players at big-time programs in college. Singleton arrives from Florida Atlantic, where he was outrageously productive (4,287 yards and 66 rushing touchdowns at 6.0 YPC in 38 games) at a low level of competition.

If anyone claims to know where this backfield is headed, they might be able to offer you a good deal on some snakeoil, too.

David Montgomery vs. Mike Davis, CHI

Tarik Cohen will not be challenged in his unique, designated role, so that's why I'm not addressing him here.

Montgomery and Davis figure to battle for the tasks handled by Jordan Howard last year. Montgomery is the public's heavy favorite here – indeed, basically no one is taking seriously the possibility of Davis playing so much as 150 snaps. Cohen played 495 and Howard played 624 last year, so I would project Montgomery and Davis to fight over about 600 snaps, 250 carries, and 40 targets. Both Montgomery and Davis are far better pass catchers than Howard, so perhaps that projection is too low, but I can only see so much growth potential there with how crowded the Bears pass-catcher rotation is.

A third-round pick out of Iowa State, Montgomery has great balance that affords both tackle-breaking and juking ability. The question is whether he can create actual yardage in addition to the missed tackles, or if he'll prove too slow to turn upfield before the rest of the swarm arrives. That he averaged only 4.7 yards per carry in the Big 12 and posted dubious workout metrics (4.63-second 40, 28.5-inch vertical) did not ease these anxieties for me any. But everyone else apparently thinks he's Kareem Hunt. I couldn't tell you how that thought process goes, but the sentiment is common. I think his best-case scenario, though totally plausible, is Chris Carson.

Despite his journeyman reputation, Davis is a former fourth-round pick who would grade as a better prospect than Montgomery by most conventional measures. Davis' balance isn't as good as Montgomery's, but he matches Montgomery's standout motor while offering better speed and quickness. Davis also averaged 5.4 yards per carry in the SEC, which is of course better than 4.7 in the Big 12. Davis was a firecracker off the bench for Seattle last year, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, and I just don't see what Montgomery objectively offers that Davis doesn't. Montgomery is of course the preferred fantasy target between the two and it's not even close, but I'm not sure it makes sense for Montgomery to go in the fourth round and Davis as late as the 17th.

Duke Johnson vs. Kareem Hunt vs. Dontrell Hilliard, CLE

Hunt is such a weird case study in how fantasy football sentimentality can set media agendas. He wasn't even that great for that long, but because he was a league-winning value as a mid-round pick his rookie year following Spencer Ware's season-ending knee injury, a bulletproof narrative stuck that Hunt was one of the best players in the league. There was such a fondness for the wins he provided his owners that year that the details otherwise have been completely wiped from the record.

For instance: the public and the fantasy media alike have been able to hold the dual opinion that Ware and Damien Williams were products of the Kansas City system, but Hunt in his only marginally greater production capacity is almost infallible. You can see the latter point in the fact that many people thought Hunt would steal the running back job in Cleveland from Nick Chubb (haha). That's not happening.

The more interesting question is whether Hunt is as good as Duke. Please, remain calm. This take is not as hot as it looks and it's certainly no good reason to smash your Big Gulp. Johnson is wrongly written off as a pass-catching specialist even though he's a very good runner (6.7 YPC at Miami, 4.3 YPC in the NFL). But as a pass catcher Johnson isn't just good, he's basically the best. To average 7.1 yards per target at a 77.6 percent catch rate over 303 career targets is impressive. I can't imagine why anyone would assume the Browns will just put that on the shelf once Hunt's eight-game suspension is over.

Hunt averaged 4.75 yards per carry in Kansas City while catching 80.6 percent of his targets for 8.5 yards per target. Elite production for sure. Ware and Williams combined to average 4.72 yards per carry in their time in Kansas City, securing 86.3 percent of their targets at 8.8 yards per target. You can believe Hunt is very good, but understand that Duke would have put up some big numbers in that Kansas City system too.

Depending on what happens with Hunt and Johnson, though, Hilliard is another candidate to play. His NFL function has been quite different from the role he played at Tulane, where he worked in a very run-heavy offense, but he proved a quick study as a rookie pass catcher last year. He saw no carries in 58 snaps but turned 10 targets into nine receptions for 105 yards. Although he was undrafted, Hilliard looks like a decent prospect in hindsight, because he was productive four years at Tulane and ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash at the Tulane pro day. If Hunt is out of the picture for whatever reason and Duke manages to force a trade, then Hilliard should do just fine for Cleveland.

Tony Pollard vs. Mike Weber, DAL

With Ezekiel Elliott drawing the scrutiny of Roger Goodell once again, it'd be helpful to know who will serve as Elliott's backup this year despite the apparent unlikeliness of any sort of suspension. Both candidates are rookies, one selected in the fourth round (Pollard) and the other the seventh (Weber).

Weber was a hyper-efficient, modest-volume producer at Ohio State and has good familiarity with passing down reps despite unremarkable pass-catching production. Pollard is a uniquely versatile RB/WR tweener who ran efficiently at Memphis but never offered much volume, averaging 6.8 yards per carry on 139 attempts. Some of those attempts occurred as a wildcat quarterback, moreover, so he just doesn't conventionally project as a full-time runner behind the tackles. But with 4.52 speed at 6-foot, 210 pounds, there aren't any concerns about Pollard in terms of tools. The question is where his skill set is at.

Weber perhaps lacks Pollard's playmaking ability, but the running back skill set is demonstrated more fully in his case. He ran for 2,676 yards (5.9 YPC) in three years at Ohio State, and at 5-foot-10, 211 pounds his 4.47-second 40 offers more big-play upside than we might expect from a seventh-round pick.

Jamaal Williams vs. Dexter Williams, GB

Although he was a fourth-round pick two years ago ahead of eventual fifth-round pick Aaron Jones, Jamaal finds his role at risk with the arrival of Dexter, a sixth-round pick out of Notre Dame. Jones' role is assured after explosive production the last two years, but he's also been injury prone going back to his UTEP days, so identifying the backup here is important.

Dexter (5-foot-11, 211 pounds) is more explosive than Jamaal (6-foot, 212 pounds), boasting a 4.57-second 40-yard dash and 130-inch broad jump compared to Jamaal's 4.58-second 40 and 123-inch broad jump, but the distinction isn't much. Any gap between the two comes down to skill set, where Jamaal has earned negative marks to this point while Dexter presents an enticing alternative merely as an unknown. Dexter was the more explosive college runner, finishing his Notre Dame career with 1,636 yards at 6.4 yards per carry, while Jamaal posted greater volume but at lesser efficiency (3,901 yards at 5.4 YPC).

I think this is a pretty even fight, and I was low on Jamaal as a prospect, but I think there's a real chance he holds off Dexter for at least this year. With Jamaal you have a player with modest athleticism and poor vision, but one who runs with a hot motor and generally seems adept at passing game functions. Last year's numbers were brutal (65.9 percent catch rate at 5.1 YPT), but he fared much better as a rookie (73.5 percent catch rate, 7.7 YPT). Furthermore, 54 of his carries last year occurred against the Bears, Vikings, or Bills, meaning he averaged over four yards per carry against the rest of his more manageable schedule. Jamaal also finished the year well, turning 27 carries into 150 yards and two touchdowns while turning 14 targets into 10 catches for 103 yards against the Bears and Jets in Weeks 15 and 16.

Lamar Miller vs. D'Onta Foreman, HOU

Miller is the kind of player you can't complain about, but one you can also easily imagine improvement over. Foreman might be just good enough to keep that latter thought itching at the Texans and fantasy owners alike, particularly with the former third-round pick reportedly showing strong progress in the ongoing recovery from the Achilles' tendon tear suffered in his 2017 rookie season.

At his best, Foreman is a 230-pound back with the according power you'd expect, but with speed you would not. He was timed at 4.45 seconds in the 40-yard dash at 234 pounds, and in a time where former five-star Texas recruits like Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray were struggling to average even four yards a carry, Foreman was a glaring big-play threat who ran for 2,700 yards and 20 touchdowns on 417 carries in a two year span (6.5 YPC). The sample is small, but he's been encouraging as a pass catcher in the NFL, turning 10 targets into eight catches for 111 yards and a touchdown.

But Miller remains a well-rounded back with just enough power to look the part of a starter, and as his 99-yard touchdown from last year showed, the 4.40 speed that made him a coveted prospect remains in tact. Still, there's a clear avenue for this turn into a thunder-and-lightning scenario, with Foreman getting some notable share of the short-yardage running, because Miller just can't match the bruising aspect Foreman can.

Alfred Blue vs. Ryquell Armstead, JAC

Leonard Fournette's chronic injury issues need no further documentation, but the question of who might serve as his backup is worth thinking about. Blue has been thoroughly unconvincing in his five-year career out of LSU, turning 673 carries into just 2,407 yards (3.6 YPC), but he's shown steady hands as a receiver, catching 69 passes for 470 yards and two touchdowns on 86 targets (80.2 percent catch rate, 5.5 YPT). Still, his sluggish work from scrimmage has led early draft markets to prefer the rookie Armstead as Fournette's handcuff as a fifth-round pick out of Temple.

Blue's production makes its own case against itself, but we probably shouldn't consider Armstead a slam-dunk case as an alternative. What's for sure about Armstead is that he runs with a hot motor and has a strong size/speed variable (4.45-second 40 at 5-foot-11, 220 pounds). That's a nice floor to work with. The question is how skilled he is, because his production at Temple was encouraging at times and uneven at others – in 2016 and 2018 he combined for 2,017 yards and 27 touchdowns on 366 carries (5.5 YPC), but in 2015 and 2017 he ran for 795 yards and seven touchdowns on 207 carries (3.8 YPC). Moreover, Armstead never showed anything as a pass catcher, turning 40 targets over the last three years into 27 receptions for 168 yards (67.5 percent catch rate, 4.2 YPT).

So Armstead is the new, fast, shiny object, but he might not be ready to displace Blue quite yet, especially if the Jaguars trust Blue in passing situations. Besides, Blue is a decent athlete in his own right and, despite his poor NFL production, he didn't struggle to move the ball at LSU. Blue's 209 career carries there went for 1,253 yards (6.0 YPC) and 11 touchdowns, and at the combine he showed good linear explosiveness for a 223-pound back by logging a 1.56-second 10-yard split and 121-inch broad jump. If Fournette gets hurt, there's a pretty good chance we see an annoying split between Blue and Armstead rather than one stepping up for fantasy owners.

Darrell Henderson vs. Malcolm Brown, LAR

I think it's a misconception that all of Todd Gurley, Henderson, and Brown would compete for the same functions in this offense. While Henderson will do plenty of carrying the ball, including between the tackles, his unique skill set affords an application that might look like Alvin Kamara in New Orleans, where we may as well have considered Kamara and Mark Ingram to be playing at different positions all along.

If this is true, then an injury to Gurley wouldn't necessarily be a boost for Henderson as much as Brown, who at 5-foot-11 and over 220 pounds is more similar to Gurley than the 5-foot-8, 208-pound Henderson. But it would be just as important to note that, if this is true, then Henderson also would not need an injury to Gurley to produce this year. Cooper Kupp is returning from a Week 10 ACL tear, and any resulting slack could just as easily go to Henderson as it would Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, Josh Reynolds, or one of the Rams tight ends. Henderson has a rare ability to split the safeties, and after turning 86 targets into 63 receptions for 758 yards and eight touchdowns over the last three years (73.3 percent catch rate, 8.8 YPT), Sean McVay is presumably curious to see what he can do with Henderson as a receiver.

I think we'll see plenty of snaps this year with both Henderson and Gurley on the field at the same time, similar to how Henderson would often be joined in the backfield by fellow runners like Tony Pollard and Patrick Taylor at Memphis. With the amount of motion and slot looks McVay strives for, there could be many ways to contort a defense's coverage plan by forcing them to account for both Gurley and Henderson from the same formation.

Kenyan Drake vs. Kalen Ballage, MIA

Without diminishing Ballage's appeal as a Zero RB sort of target, I think this is one case where the 'competition' isn't one at all. Drake is the easily better player of these two. Ballage is an interesting size/speed specimen with perhaps some untapped upside as a running back/tight end tweener in the passing game, but Drake looks poised to establish himself as one of the best running backs in the league.

Through three seasons Drake has 1,358 yards and nine touchdowns on 286 carries (4.7 YPC) to go with 94 receptions for 762 yards and six scores on 131 targets (71.8 percent catch rate, 5.8 YPT). Drake was unrefined after playing behind Eddie Lacy, T.J. Yeldon, and Derrick Henry at Alabama, but in his NFL career his skill set has noticeably sharpened. He was always explosive, but by now he's also a complete back in terms of skill and tool set.

Ballage's skill set at running back doesn't have much hope, in my opinion. He was always a freakish size/speed case, a hyped recruit when Arizona State was fortunate to land him. But he was never a natural at running back, as he failed to outproduce Demario Richard (last seen in the AAF) and even was nearly moved to defensive end at one point. Ballage ran for 1,984 yards (4.4 YPC) and 27 touchdowns in his Arizona State career, while the sub-NFL talent Richard ran for 3,202 yards (4.9 YPC) and 26 touchdowns in the same time frame. Ballage never ran for more than 669 yards in a season.

Despite some misunderstanding to the contrary, Ballage's rookie season was no more encouraging from a running standpoint. He ran for 191 yards on 36 carries (5.3 YPC), yes, but aside from a fluke 75-yard touchdown he totaled 116 yards on 35 carries (3.3 YPC), which is his more realistic outcome range.

Alexander Mattison vs. Mike Boone, MIN

Mattison's roster spot is safe as a third-round pick, while Boone remains a question for the final roster as a second-year undrafted player. But if Boone does make the team, then he might be able to mess up Mattison's rookie-year projection.

Besides his lack of institutional investment, Boone's problem is durability. After an uncommonly explosive start to his Cincinnati career, Boone spent his last two collegiate seasons hurt constantly. He stayed mostly healthy last year but spent half of it as a scratch due to inability to contribute on special teams, where Ameer Abdullah was for whatever reason considered the superior option. Unless that changes this offseason, Boone would be liable to be a healthy scratch again on game days even if he makes the team.

If he does make the team and by whatever means remain active on game days, though, Boone can run. He ran for 1,399 yards and 18 touchdowns on just 205 carries (6.8 YPC) in his two healthy seasons at Cincinnati, and he demonstrated great athleticism at the Cincinnati pro day with a 4.44-second 40, 42-inch vertical, and 139-inch broad jump.

Mattison's investors should hope Boone doesn't make the team, because he's probably not as gifted as a pure runner as Boone is. Despite his selection in the third round, Mattison was a lesser player than Jeremy McNichols at Boise State, and McNichols hasn't been able to catch on to this point. Mattison was the epitome of replacement level at Boise, where in three seasons he ran for 2,829 yards and 33 touchdowns (4.9 YPC), though he was good as a pass catcher by turning 76 targets into 60 receptions for 511 yards (79.0 percent catch rate, 6.7 YPT). Mattison is young, to be fair, having just turned 21 in June, but if he doesn't mature further physically then he'll be doomed to below-average status as an athlete after logging a 4.67-second 40 at the combine. But with a 221-pound frame and a potential adeptness in passing functions, Mattison is the kind of player who can at least contribute unremarkable snaps.

Jordan Howard vs. Miles Sanders vs. Corey Clement vs. Wendell Smallwood vs. Josh Adams vs. Boston Scott, PHI

I think it's safe to assume that, as a trade acquisition and a second-round draft pick respectively, Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders are the two lead runners in this backfield. The question is who else makes it and then on what basis they might rotate.

Adams is a horse when he has the football but his profound struggles as a pass catcher make him unlikely to make the team. Due to their familiarity with the system and coaches, I would have to figure Clement and Smallwood are the next two most likely to stick. Durability has been a real issue for Clement, and it's been long enough since the Eagles' Super Bowl run that the sentimental value of his presence is declining. Smallwood has been puzzlingly uneven for the Eagles after a strong career at West Virginia, but he showed flashes last year of putting it together. If it's Howard, Sanders, Clement, and Smallwood that make the team, then it's likely Clement and Smallwood who would handle most of the pass-catching tasks.

Scott is the wildcard here, as he more conventionally profiles as a pass-catching specialist than Clement or Smallwood. At 5-foot-6, 203 pounds he most closely resembles the seemingly gone Darren Sproles, and his speed/quickness would stand out from the rest of the group. If Scott does make the team, I'd guess it's at Smallwood's expense or because someone landed on IR.

Jaylen Samuels vs. Benny Snell, PIT

As much as I think Samuels could eventually pose a threat to James Conner, I doubt 2019 will be that year. The more realistic competition in the Pittsburgh backfield would be between Samuels and Snell, a rookie fourth-round pick out of Kentucky. Anyone who's suffered through my writing over the past two years probably already knows I'm a Samuels fan and a Snell skeptic. Indeed, I don't think this is a serious question at all. But I'll try to objectively lay out the details anyway.

Samuels was a fifth-round pick last year out of North Carolina State, where he worked as a gimmick runner and tight end/wide receiver tweener otherwise. Because he didn't spend much time working as a pure running back, there were questions about the development of his running back-specific skill set. Following a strong rookie season despite his experience disadvantage, I think Samuels has answered any questions about his ability to play running back. He's a natural there just as he was a natural at whatever else it was that North Carolina State needed of him. He's a guy who can run and catch – the specifics otherwise will sort themselves out. So in Samuels what you have is a good player who's already one of the very best pass-catching threats at running back, so good in fact it wouldn't be surprising to see him play tight end and receiver at times for the Steelers this year. At 6-foot, 225 pounds with 4.54 speed, a 121-inch broad jump, and 11.21 agility score, Samuels is one of the best athletes among running backs over 220 pounds. Almost none of them can catch passes like he can (89.7 percent catch rate, 6.9 YPT last year).

Snell might have an advantage over Samuels on the question of between-the-tackles skill set. Whereas Samuels entered the NFL untested as a pure running back, few arrive to the league with as many reps as Snell saw in his three years at Kentucky. He took 737 carries for 3,873 yards (5.3 YPC) and 48 touchdowns in 39 games, and at 5-foot-10, 224 pounds he has the build to handle a heavy workload inside. The problem is Snell's athletic profile is quite concerning, as he ran a 4.66-second 40-yard dash to go with a 29.5-inch vertical and 11.4 agility score. His rushing efficiency was never great in college, either. Whereas Samuels averaged 6.1 yards per carry even as North Carolina State's goal-line back, Snell's YPC of 5.3 indicates a volume runner rather than an impact one. To me, Snell's realistic outcome range mostly features players like David Cobb and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, with a best-case scenario of Jeremy Hill. And I never liked Hill, so.

The only way I see Snell making an impact this year is if Conner gets hurt and the Steelers force an arrangement where Snell handles inside carries and Samuels takes all the passing situation work. Even in this scenario, I still think Samuels would prove himself better than Snell at any applicable task, challenging the resolve of Pittsburgh's coaches to stick with such a plan.

Rashaad Penny vs. Chris Carson, SEA

Penny was of course a bust as a rookie first-round pick last year, arriving to training camp some 20 pounds overweight and never catching up to Carson, whose underwhelming pedigree didn't stop him from breaking tackles at a high rate and thriving behind an improved run-blocking Seattle offensive line while Penny broke his finger and otherwise failed to earn the trust of Seattle's coaches.

Carson turned out to be better than I thought he was, but I also still think Penny is the better player. Whether that bears out in the fantasy production this year might depend on the script a bit – as much as I think Penny is easily a better prospect than Carson, I'd have to concede that Carson is better at taking on piles – but if the Seattle run blocking continues to thrive then I think Penny's ability to avoid piles altogether makes him Seattle's best means of cashing in. There are simply very few runners who pose the big-play upside Penny does. Meanwhile, Carson is coming off a season where he needed to break tackles at a 90th-percentile rate to average 4.7 yards per carry, framing a small margin of error to maintain his past efficiency and ensuring a high physical cost even in the best-case scenarios.

The punishment Carson subjects himself to has caused him to miss time both at Oklahoma State and in his two years with the Seahawks. It's the primary reason why Justice Hill kicked Carson out of the starting lineup even when Hill was a 180-pound true freshman, and it's the reason why Carson is currently on the shelf with a knee procedure undergone earlier this offseason. Carson also played through a hip issue last year after missing the final 12 games of his rookie year with a broken leg.

If Penny is truly in good shape this year – and Seattle coaches so far have said he is – then he should pull away in this race in the long run. A player like Carson needs to burn hot to function, but the wick burns faster as a result. Penny's application is more practical over the long haul because he misses tacklers instead of inviting groups of them like Carson does. Moreover, even in the short term, if Penny is the 220-pounder from San Diego State who logged a 4.46-second 40-yard dash after running for 3,266 yards and 34 touchdowns over his last 27 games at 7.7 yards per carry, then I like his chances of winning outright. Carson won the job last year when Penny was pushing 240 with a broken finger.

Tevin Coleman vs. Matt Breida vs. Jerick McKinnon, SF

This one looks complicated at a glance, but I think there's a chance it's not truly as complicated for fantasy purposes as much as it's merely a difficult position for the 49ers. The question of who's most qualified probably isn't complicated – the answer just might be uncomfortable for the team's front office. Their decision to sign Coleman in free agency indicates some unique level of commitment to him, and it makes sense since he'd conventionally check out as the most qualified of the group anyway. Breida's excellent production over the last two years makes him appear more qualified than McKinnon for the remaining considerations. But whoever checks in at third might find themselves on the shelf indefinitely.

According to NBC's Matt Maiocco, one of Breida or McKinnon is likely to be a healthy scratch because the 49ers would likely only have three active running backs aside from fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and one of those three is likely to be Raheem Mostert for his special teams work. This might not necessarily be true – all of Coleman, Breida, and Mostert can contribute snaps out wide – but if it is true then it's hard to see how McKinnon would stay active, in my opinion.

The question of who's better between Breida and McKinnon doesn't seem like much of a question at all at this point. Be it due to vision or tackle-breaking limitations or whatever else, McKinnon never showed as much as Breida when it comes to NFL production. McKinnon's 474 NFL carries have gone for just 1,918 yards (4.0 YPC), while his 191 targets went for 142 receptions for 984 yards and five touchdowns (74.4 percent catch rate, 5.2 YPT). McKinnon is fast, quick, and explosive, and that makes him dangerous in the open field. But he seems unable to find the open field all that often, or at least nowhere near as often as Breida. In his first two seasons Breida has 1,279 yards and five touchdowns on 258 carries (5.0 YPC) while his 67 targets went for 48 receptions for 441 yards and three touchdowns (71.6 percent catch rate, 6.6 YPT).

With what we've seen of the two to this point, I think you'd have to call Breida a superior prospect to McKinnon, even with Breida undrafted and McKinnon a former third-round pick. Breida more or less matches the athleticism that made McKinnon so tantalizing in the first place, logging a 4.39-second 40, 42-inch vertical, and 134-inch broad jump at 5-foot-9, 195 pounds after McKinnon (5-foot-9, 209 pounds) ran a 4.41-second 40 with a 40.5-inch vertical and 132-inch broad jump. Not only is Breida an elite athlete, but he was outrageously productive at Georgia State before a coaching change caused the team to collapse around Breida in his senior season. Before running for just 646 yards (3.8 YPC) and three touchdowns on Georgia Southern's cursed 2016 squad, Breida needed only 374 carries to torch for 3,094 yards and 34 touchdowns (8.3 YPC) in the prior two seasons.

So I think the situation is clear as far as who's most likely to produce. It's still a difficult situation for the 49ers, though, because McKinnon's $3.7 million 2019 salary became fully guaranteed on April 1. A team that thinks things through traditionally would not willingly pay $3.7 million for a running back who does not play. But with GM John Lynch's shoddy results supposedly intertwined with the input of coach Kyle Shanahan, the political pressure of the McKinnon contract might not press Shanahan as much since Lynch can be the one left holding the bag. From Shanahan's perspective as a coach, he'd presumably lean simply toward the player who's more productive instead of looking to justify the front office's expenditures. He did as much once already, cutting ill-conceived fourth-round pick Joe Williams in favor of the undrafted Breida. It was probably in no small part Shanahan's idea to reach for Williams in the draft, but it didn't buy Williams any leash.

So Shanahan is faced with a choice: do you willingly leave a better player on the shelf to rationalize a contract you're not on the hook for, or do you try to put out the best team today even if it makes the front office look bad?

Ronald Jones vs. Peyton Barber, TB

This situation is a tough one to sort out. By conventional judgment this should be Jones' backfield for the taking, but the same would have been true a year ago, when Jones was a historically-bad bust as an early second-round pick. While I was never as high on Jones as some of his leading proponents were before the draft, last year's results were nonetheless shocking to me. I keep going back and forth on what it all means.

On the one hand, it's point-blank disturbing that Jones couldn't even earn 100 snaps last year in an awful backfield. That's true no matter how little I respect the Buccaneers decision makers. It'd make me afraid of Jones if a chimpanzee had declared him the third-string runner behind Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers, so the fact that I don't hold Dirk Koetter in much higher esteem doesn't reassure me any. Then again, Koetter's decision to place Jacquizz Rodgers of all people ahead of Jones makes the whole competition look illegitimate to me. If not some sort of unidentified punitive reason, then placing Rodgers ahead of Jones can only be the result of poor judgment, and so in that case I need to take seriously the possibility that poor judgment is the reason for ranking Barber ahead as well, more justifiable as it might be.

So with that reasoning I can crack open a bit the door to rationalizing what otherwise looks like a career-dooming rookie season at a glance. The door opens a bit more when you take Jones' youth into account. He'll only be 22 in August, and it wouldn't be the weirdest thing in the world if he simply wasn't mentally ready to handle the job a year ago. An immature player in the hands of an unqualified coaching staff could explain a disaster of last year's scale.

Even if there's a positive spin to make for Jones, though, the pro-Jones case for fantasy in 2019 still depends heavily on negative assessments of the players around him. In a functional backfield Jones would not be a consideration for starter, but Barber simply isn't strong competition. Barber is a sub-replacement level player who possesses no actual strengths. His presence is his only value. Through 397 career carries he owns just 1,517 yards (3.8 YPC) and nine touchdowns, failing to log a 30-yard carry in his 234 attempts last year. As a pass catcher he's basically immobile, with 54 career targets going for 41 receptions for 234 yards (75.9 percent catch rate, 4.3 YPT). For some perspective, Barber was a lesser player than Cameron Artis-Payne at Auburn. This is just who he is, and Jones is basically nothing if he can't exceed Barber's contributions.

I'd be worried about the Buccaneers trading for someone like Duke Johnson or Jerick McKinnon, but if they don't then the deal is that Jones would likely need to be the worst player of his relevant traits to ever go through college football and the NFL. Even though I'm terrified of him, I just can't buy a scenario quite so grim.

Derrius Guice vs. Adrian Peterson, WAS

There's no good case study for this one. A 224-pound back with 4.49 speed who runs for 6.5 yards per carry over three seasons at LSU isn't supposed to face any sort of competition from a 34-year-old running back, but then 34-year-old running backs aren't supposed to run for 1,000-plus yards while producing after-contact yardage at the top 77th percentile. I wrote off Peterson previously and I want to do the same now, but I just can't. As a longtime fan of Guice, I'm annoyed by this.

The whole equation is complicated by Guice's problematic recovery from a torn ACL which resulted in an infection and required three additional procedures to tend to the infection. To be clear, Guice is expected to be fully prepared for training camp and whatever oddities of his recovery appear to be immaterial. It's just one of those things you'd rather not see when you put money on the line. But we also have to consider the upside scenario, and if Guice hits that then he would pay off as a second-round expense, let alone one in the sixth round. It's a tough situation with tons of risk and upside both.