Job Battles: Ebron Ever the Enigma

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco (hip) vs. Lamar Jackson, BAL

This wouldn't be a competition exactly, because the Ravens intended all along to rig Flacco into a starting role until 2019 at the earliest, but a cryptic hip injury for Flacco has thrown his status into question over the bye week. If Flacco can play, assume he starts. If he can't play, assume Jackson is a must-add in any league of 12 or more teams.

Marty Mornhinweg and the Ravens coaching staff in general are dubious, but throughout their struggles Mornhinweg remains committed to an uptempo approach, one that would afford Jackson substantial rushing usage. There's no need to be cautious about this particular fact: Jackson is the best runner to ever play the quarterback position. Better than Vick, better than Bobby Douglass or whoever else you might have in mind. Even if Jackson is a bad passer, the fantasy upside could be exceptional.

To analyze Jackson's prospect profile at length, I'm going to be lazy and quote myself from February.

From the people who brought you hits like 'Deshaun Watson is a One-Read Quarterback' and 'Dak Prescott is an H-Back,' the hot new club single for the 2018 draft is 'Lamar Jackson is Pat White'!

Any attempt to make such a case is dubious if not plausibly dishonest. And let it be known, no more than probably 10-to-20 percent of these people supported Watson last year. They're not off the hook for that.

So they're back to make their case again, and a little bit louder this time. Jackson, you see, is much different from Watson, because Jackson did not make consecutive national championship appearances in the process of defeating Alabama in his final collegiate game. Jackson is not a winner like that, it goes. Since his production both as a passer and runner objectively grades levels higher than any of their other preferred comparisons (Brad Smith, Braxton Miller, Kordell Stewart, etc.), Jackson's four-interception bowl game in a loss to Mississippi State was a godsend for those with money riding on framing Jackson as the next White rather than the next Watson. In designating bowl game victories as their singular criterion, these scouts believe they have the plausible deniability to say, 'Ah! See, our concern with him was moxie all along. Watson was a winner, Jackson just doesn't have it.'

It's a premise that's most generously described as superstitious, while someone less charitable might call it disingenuous. It was one game, and against one of the top defenses in the country – Mississippi State allowed just 174.7 passing yards per game at a completion percentage of just 50.8, conceding just 20.9 points per game. Even in this, the great shame of Jackson's career, he still scored three times and ran for 158 yards (6.6 YPC) in what was merely a four-point loss. Jackson scored 116 touchdowns versus 23 interceptions in his 37 other games. Pardon me for leering at anyone who'd rather not account for them.

Even if we decline to examine the specific significance of that one game, the idea that Jackson resembles White more than Watson is silly on its face. This is mostly easily pointed out with a consideration of build – White was 6-feet, 197 pounds at the Combine, whereas Jackson will likely check in at 6-foot-2 and between 215 and 225 pounds (Watson was 6-foot-2, 221 pounds). It remains to be seen what Jackson runs in the 40, but he's expected to outdo the 4.55 posted by White, and it would be laughable to compare White's arm strength to Jackson's. Jackson has a cannon for an arm and can move the ball far downfield with a fast, low-effort delivery. Physically, the two players are objectively dissimilar.

The comparison doesn't work much better when you consider production. White finished his career with a high of 1,842 yards passing in a single season. Jackson's career low in passing yardage was 1,840 yards as an 18-year-old true freshman despite only starting only eight games. While White failed to hit 2,000 passing yards in a season, Jackson averaged over 3,000 passing yards per season. Jackson was even clearly superior as a runner, totaling 4,132 yards and 50 touchdowns in 38 games – White needed 49 games to get to 4,480 yards and 47 touchdowns. You also need to remember that White played for a West Virginia team that played in the Big East, a lesser conference more comparable to the AAC today. Jackson played in the ACC, where you have to deal with Clemson and Florida State instead of Houston and South Florida. There's no resemblance here.

There is one valid concern with Jackson, and that's his accuracy after failing to complete 60 percent of his passes in a season. This stat, to be fair, is one area where he's well behind both Watson and White. My hunch that I unfortunately can't substantiate with numbers at the moment is that Jackson threw more downfield than those two. The data on that should surface relatively soon. White especially was not accurate – his percentages were inflated by screen passes that Jackson never threw. Even Watson had a lot of fixed-read short passes stabilizing his completion percentage. Jackson also dealt with more drops than most quarterbacks – James Quick and Jamari Staples are no Mike Williams and Artavis Scott. To be clear, I think Jackson is less accurate than Watson, but I also believe his completion percentage can be rationalized through the broader context. It's also important to note that Jackson played at under 21 years old for his Louisville career, and the fact that he improved yearly makes obvious the need to project further development. The tools, the age-adjusted production, the yearly adjustments – it's all there.

We'll need to see what happens with Flacco's hip diagnosis/prognosis, but in most leagues I think it's worth adding Jackson now just because the windfall if he does start could be substantial.

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Jameis Winston, TB

I really thought this matter would be settled by now, but Fitzpatrick's limitations showed up in a painful way against Washington on Sunday, making it appear that even in this improved state in an advantageous Todd Monken offense, Fitzpatrick just can't throw the ball in the red zone. A bend-but-don't-break defense appears to be the antidote to Fitzpatrick's gun-slinging ways, and now it's on Monken and Fitzpatrick to see whether an adjustment can hide this liability going forward. If they can't, the Buccaneers might find themselves desperate enough to go back to Winston, obviously glaring as his flaws might be. Fitzpatrick's numbers on the year are truly excellent, with 2,199 yards at a 67.1 percent completion rate and 9.8 YPA with 17 touchdowns to nine interceptions, but if 406 yards results in just three points then something is wrong.

Matt Barkley vs. Josh Allen, BUF

Barkley's strong box score against the Jets was almost certainly the result of the Jets collapsing rather than newfound talent on Barkley's part, but to Barkley's credit, 15-of-25 for 232 yards and two touchdowns on the road is a very nice showing, especially just 12 days after signing. Unfortunately for Barkley, the Bills have a bye this week and Josh Allen, who coach Sean McDermott declared Monday the team's starter when healthy, is expected to be ready for the Week 12 game against Jacksonville.

Running Backs

Rashaad Penny vs. Chris Carson (hip) vs. Mike Davis, SEA

It took Carson missing a game with his recurring hip issue, but Penny finally got a chance to show what he can do with the ball now that he's lost some weight from his problematic 236 pounds in training camp. Penny's burst and speed is an extreme contrast given Davis and Carson's relatively poor marks in those fields, and the Seattle offensive line has run-blocked rather well for most of the year. It's surprising that Penny saw 12 carries against the Rams, but not at all surprising that he turned those carries into 108 yards and a touchdown.

Penny is still unproven at best as a passing-down back, whereas Davis, for all his limitations, is totally adequate. That means you probably need to worry about the script for Penny if the Seahawks fall behind, even if Carson remains out. I still expect Carson to get at least the ceremonial starting distinction when he can return from the injury, but it's unclear whether his role will be less than what it was before the injury, and it's furthermore unclear whether Carson will be able to play against Green Bay on Thursday with the short week.

I considered Penny a player who should have been owned in 12-team leagues for over a month now, so I needless to say think he needs to be owned now. I'm not sure how much FAAB he's worth, but we're all always desperate for running back help, and that dynamic only gets worse during the season's crunch time.

Peyton Barber vs. Jacquizz Rodgers vs. Ronald Jones, TB

Barber ran reasonably well against Washington on Sunday, turning 13 carries into 61 yards and catching his only target for five yards, but Rodgers' huge game as a pass catcher and Jones' potential eventual return from a hamstring injury cast further cause for anxiety with a runner who we already knew was a sub-par talent with questionable job security.

The good news for Barber is that Jones remains without a timetable for return, and with the Giants and 49ers up next, the Buccaneers could find themselves in close games where Barber is afforded significant rushing volume. The bad news is Rodgers caught all eight of his targets Sunday for 102 yards, which could push Dirk Koetter to give Rodgers more snaps generally, and perhaps in the specific form of lessening Barber's passing down work even further. After Week 12, in any case, Barber's schedule toughens up noticeably (Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, Dallas), at which point he will almost certainly be toast.

Josh Adams vs. Corey Clement vs. Wendell Smallwood, PHI

This figures to be one of the most frustrating backfields in the league until at least 2019, but perhaps there's some signal to unearth here in the meantime. I think we can presume Smallwood as locked into a peripheral role at most, largely as a pass catcher, and one that might be nixed entirely if Darren Sproles ever returns from his hamstring issue.

Adams versus Clement is probably the most pertinent question here. Clement has really fallen off in 2018, and who knows whether his quadriceps issue from earlier this year is part of the problem. Clement was hurt quite a lot late in his Wisconsin career, and perhaps he's facing similar difficulties now. If not, his 25 yards on his last 17 carries is quite discouraging.

Here is my breakdown of Adams from the preseason:

The question of whether Adams can make the final Philadelphia roster and earn a role is not necessarily pending the determination of who is 'better' between him and Clement, however. Indeed, Clement should be considered the favorite because even if he's less talented than Adams, his year of familiarity with the Doug Pederson system and the goodwill he rightfully earned with his play last year gives him a tangible head start over Adams. If Clement pulls a hammy in training camp and Adams gets two weeks of escalated reps, though, that advantage might dissolve.

Adams becomes very intriguing in that scenario, especially in the long run. Jay Ajayi is in a contract year and has long believed to have a problematic knee, and Clement doesn't project as a long-term starter for the most part. Adams doesn't project as a traditional starter, either, but the athleticism and especially the skill set imply a player capable of providing fantasy value if he sees a significant role.

Adams was highly explosive at Notre Dame, where he ran for 3,201 yards (6.7 YPC) and 20 touchdowns in 37 games, adding 41 receptions for 336 yards and two touchdowns. He would ideally add at least 10 pounds to his frame because he's currently thin at 6-foot-2, 213 pounds, but in the meantime he has encouraging speed and quickness with a 4.51-second 40-yard dash and 6.78-second three-cone drills. NFL.com even cited a top game speed of 22.37 miles per hour for Adams in one game last year, which would generally compare more to 4.4 speed.

I think Adams was safely a better prospect out of Notre Dame than Clement out of Wisconsin, and 154 yards on his 27 carries (5.7 YPC), Adams has certainly earned more rushing opportunities. It's less clear whether he can pose a threat to the passing situation snaps of Clement and Smallwood, however, so I think Adams will be rather game-script and probably touchdown-dependent since we can't bank on much receiving production. Adams was not particularly effective as a receiver in college, turning 52 targets into 34 receptions for 294 yards and a touchdown in his final two years (65.4 percent catch rate, 5.7 YPT).

Wide Receivers

Golden Tate vs. Nelson Agholor, PHI

Analysis by motive speculation is probably a reckless if not pointless exercise, but one has to wonder if Philadelphia's trade for Tate ignited some greater inspiration in Agholor, who struggled badly all year but put forth a strong showing against the Cowboys on Sunday. After posting 372 yards (6.1 YPT) and one touchdown in the first eight weeks, even with Alshon Jeffery (shoulder) on the shelf for three of them, Agholor had arguably his best game of the year against a respectable Dallas defense, totaling five catches for 83 yards on seven targets while Tate finished his first game as an Eagle with just two catches for 19 yards on four targets while playing only 18 snaps.

That 18 snaps tells the whole story, I think – Tate just wasn't acclimated to the offense yet, so he didn't see an extensive workload. With an imposing road matchup against the Saints up next and Tate in a walk year, I don't see what choice the Eagles have but to commit to featuring him in that potential shootout. If not, then how could they possibly justify spending a third-round pick on this? If you can sell high on Agholor, which is to say a return of anything worth rostering, I would do it. Agholor is not getting as many targets as Tate the rest of the way.

Robert Foster vs. Terrelle Pryor vs. Kelvin Benjamin, BUF

Who knows where this situation is headed, but in deeper leagues in particular it may be worth closely watching Buffalo's wide receiver rotation into their final six games. It would be reasonable to project a usage shift in this group coming out of the Week 11 bye, because a trend of that nature appeared to begin against the Jets on Sunday. According to WKBW's Joe Buscaglia, Benjamin saw his snap count percentage drop from 74 percent in Week 9 to 51 percent in Week 10, and it's hard to believe that Benjamin's dropped touchdown pass and poor motor otherwise would do anything to halt that trend.

If someone should capitalize on Benjamin's descent, it would seem to be Foster rather than Pryor. Pryor's snap count also fell from Week 9 to Week 10, with Foster playing 45 percent of the snaps following a three-week stint on the practice squad. That Foster turned his four targets into 105 yards on three catches should not give Buffalo any reason to lighten his workload going forward, especially because he's an exceptionally cheap, controllable asset whereas even if Pryor sticks around for the longer term, he's basically still a prospect like Foster is, but much more expensive as an eight-year veteran.

Foster (6-foot-2, 196 pounds) went undrafted out of Alabama, but there was a time where he was expected to serve as the team's No. 1 wide receiver over eventual third-round pick ArDarius Stewart before injury troubles pretty much shut down his career with the Crimson Tide. Foster is a former blue chip recruit, and he can really run if nothing else (4.41-second 40-yard dash at the combine).

Tight Ends

Eric Ebron vs. Mo Alie-Cox, IND

I have no idea what to do with this one. Ebron threw down what might be the best fantasy output of a tight end this year – certainly the most novel one, after turning three targets into 69 yards and two touchdowns while adding a third touchdown as a runner – but his job security remains irritatingly unclear.

When Jack Doyle returned from his hip issue three weeks ago, Ebron saw just 17 snaps, fewer than not just Alie-Cox but even Ryan Hewitt. That was a game where Indianapolis trailed for an extensive amount of time, so Ebron's low snap total couldn't be explained by the need for run blocking. Even yesterday Ebron only played 20 snaps.

This isn't like with Arizona and Ricky Seals-Jones last year, where he'd play only 12-to-20 snaps yet remained a clear fantasy option because of extreme target frequency on the snaps he did play. Normally three targets just isn't going to cut it for any tight end in particular, and especially not Ebron with his drop tendencies. Perhaps Ebron's extremely explosive pass-catching numbers of late will force Frank Reich to consider escalating his workload, but in the meantime it's concerning that Alie-Cox once again played more snaps than Ebron, logging 23 snaps to Ebron's 20. Doyle played 48 snaps.