Job Battles: Dixon the Spoiler

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson vs. Joe Flacco (hip), BAL

It's tough to tell where this one is headed, because Jackson hasn't played great despite his 3-0 record as starter, and Flacco's blip of practice activity Friday implies that he'll be a good bet to be available for this week's game at Arrowhead.

I don't know whether I consider Jackson or Flacco the better starting option against the Chiefs – I would go with Jackson just because of how I view the long-term lens – but I can understand why coaches might consider Flacco preferable in a tough road spot against the presumed AFC Super Bowl representative. That's particularly true because the Ravens are in realistic wildcard contention at 7-5.

Jackson's profound talent as a runner makes the Ravens offense fundamentally different from the way it looks with Flacco on the field, and that rushing threat widens the gaps to make the running game more effective in general. But Jackson is not as reliable of a passer as Flacco at this point, and the fact that he completed 12-of-21 passes for just 125 yards against the Falcons implies Jackson would struggle to move the offense if the Ravens fall behind as almost certain with a Pat Mahomes matchup.

I tentatively would expect Flacco to get back in the starting lineup this week, with Jackson reduced to his previous role as a gadget player. If they lose, though, they might go right back to Jackson against for a home game against Tampa Bay.

Running backs

Sony Michel vs. Rex Burkhead, NE

At one point the presumed lead back in New England while Michel sat with the knee injury he suffered in training camp, Burkhead's return from IR on Sunday received surprisingly little attention. Burkhead contributes both as a runner and slot receiver, and last year he functioned as New England's short-yardage runner. We'd already seen him produce in this offense, and it was reasonable to hope the Patriots would immediately put him back into the game plan.

Michel was not present last year, of course, and if Sunday's usage was any indication, Burkhead isn't much of a threat to him. As Boston Herald reporter Kevin Duffy notes, Burkhead opened a second-quarter series as the running back only to be replaced by Michel on a 3rd and one play. It probably won't always play out like that, but it looks like when the chips are down it looks like the Patriots prefer Michel.

Perhaps the Patriots were easing in Burkhead, but in the meantime he's probably best thought of as a handcuff to Michel. Burkhead still saw seven carries and two targets Sunday, but the Patriots won't normally have 74 snaps to split up. It'd probably take a backfield or receiver injury for Burkhead to conventionally project for work.

Rashaad Penny vs. Mike Davis, SEA

I still think Penny will decisively overtake Chris Carson at some point, but that point is unlikely to arrive before 2019. Carson's motor makes the most of his anchor strength, and he otherwise reads blocks and runs decisively, while Penny is still getting a feel for the rhythm of NFL play.

In the meantime, though, it seems safe to say that Penny has at least pushed aside Mike Davis as a runner, which might be enough to establish realistic flex utility the rest of this year. Davis probably remains the preferred passing situation running back, but he saw only four carries for ten yards on his ten snaps, while Penny's 12 snaps yielded seven carries for 65 yards and a touchdown. Given Seattle's sound defense and extremely run-heavy offense, they're unlikely to find themselves in too many catch-up scripts, which is to Davis' detriment.

Since Week 10 Penny has been one of the most explosive runners in the league, which should surprise no one. In that span he's totaled 223 yards (7.2 YPC) and two touchdowns in four games, and that includes seven red-zone carries. In that same span Davis has 108 yards (4.7 YPC).

Gus Edwards vs. Ty Montgomery vs. Kenneth Dixon, BAL

Edwards was locked in as the lead pure runner with Alex Collins (foot) on IR, but instead of leaving us with an easily understood workload split between Edwards as a runner and Montgomery as the catch-up guy, Collins' IR trip coincided with Dixon's activation, muddying up the picture just as fast as it started to clear up. All three runners were extensively involved against the Falcons on Sunday, with Edwards totaling 21 carries on 41 snaps, Montgomery claiming three carries and seven targets on 27 snaps, and Dixon seeing eight carries and a target on 17 snaps. Javorius Allen mercifully did not play.

Now, the Ravens are not normally going to run anywhere near 85 plays. The extent to which all three runners played almost cannot happen again. So instead of all three making impacts like Sunday, it will more likely be two at most. Unfortunately for us, the trio might play equally enough to render none useful in fantasy.

While I can't advise anyone to drop Edwards and in many cases I can't even advise the consideration of benching him, I view Dixon's return as Edwards' problem primarily. Montgomery seemed unchallenged as the pass-catching back Sunday, which is exactly what you would expect based on the skill sets of all involved. Dixon can produce as a pass catcher, but Montgomery is better in that specific function than all but maybe ten running backs in the league, whereas Dixon is merely decent.

That Dixon saw eight carries for 37 yards makes me think he'll be chasing Edwards' snaps going forward rather than Montgomery's. It's important to recall that despite his suspensions and injuries, Dixon is objectively a better prospect than Edwards. That doesn't mean he's better now, but prospect profiles generally play out over long enough samples, and Dixon played well enough Sunday that he gave the Ravens no reason to cut back his workload, especially with Edwards potentially dealing with a sore ankle.

Wide receivers

Chris Godwin vs. DeSean Jackson (thumb), TB

It's always fun, on the one hand, when a player you know is good finally gets their chance and dominates like you expect them to. On the other hand, if you have to wait nearly two years for that validation, it's hard to let go of the bitterness of all that wasted time. Godwin was in the starting lineup Sunday due to Jackson's thumb issue, and the second-year looming star predictably lit up the Panthers, turning six targets into five receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown.

Godwin was dominant in college even though he had to corral passes from Christian Hackenberg, and at 6-foot-1, 209 pounds he ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash before the 2017 draft. In his first two years in the NFL, Godwin is up to 78 catches for 1,100 yards and five touchdowns on 116 targets, resulting in excellent marks for both catch rate (67.2) and yards per target (9.5).

Godwin is a great prospect, not a good one, and his skill set is a better fit for Jameis Winston generally than Jackson's is. Jackson is still a very good player but his skills go to waste with Winston, who simply doesn't throw well downfield, and Jackson otherwise can't match Godwin as an intermediate target. Who knows how Dirk Koetter and Todd Monken will run their receiver rotation going forward, but Adam Humphries' slot role is not up for debate at the moment, and Mike Evans of course will get every snap he can handle outside. If Jackson is out against New Orleans this week, Godwin will be a problem for the Saints no matter whether it's Marshon Lattimore or Eli Apple in coverage.

Devin Funchess (back) vs. D.J. Moore vs. Curtis Samuel, CAR

After neglecting him all year, the Panthers surprisingly made Samuel the focal point of the passing game against Tampa Bay on Sunday, with the second-year burner earning 11 targets on the way to six catches for 88 yards. I'm a big fan of Samuel and think he'll absolutely succeed if Carolina keeps giving him chances like this, but I'm skeptical he can keep it going against Cleveland on Sunday, Homecoming Narrative aside.

Samuel's 58 snaps still lagged behind Moore's team-leading 66 snaps, yet those 58 snaps were primarily subsidized by Funchess' limitations from his back ailment. Funchess only played 32 snaps in this one, but he normally ran between 45 and 60 when healthy. It's no guarantee that Funchess is healthy by this weekend, but that he played last week implies the extra bit of time might get him back around 100 percent for this week.

Moore looks locked in as the WR1 either way, but I'd expect Funchess to step back into a full-time role when able. I can't fault anyone for speculatively picking up Samuel anyway, just because for all we know Funchess might aggravate or otherwise stall his recovery in practice, but something would have to give if all three wideouts are available, and Samuel has run behind a healthy Funchess in every applicable scenario this year.

Taywan Taylor vs. Tajae Sharpe, TEN

I'm too snakebitten by the Titans this year to go back for more abuse, but Taylor's breakout 2018 game against the Jets on Sunday was exactly what I expected from him all year. Corey Davis was the best college football receiver in the four years prior to last, but Taylor was the second-best at Western Kentucky, producing even against the Alabamas on his schedule before timing at 6.57 seconds in the three-cone drill and posting an excellent 132-inch broad jump at the combine.

Taylor turned his five targets into three receptions for 104 yards against the Jets on Sunday, but he still ran behind Sharpe, who finished with three catches for 51 yards on six targets. Taylor logged 29 snaps, while Sharpe played 53. The Titans are wrong to play Sharpe ahead of Taylor, but as much as I remain optimistic for Taylor in the long term, I can't really advise chasing his big game in 2018 redraft leagues outside of formats with 14 or more teams. We can't make coaches do reasonable things.

Tight ends

Levine Toilolo vs. Luke Willson vs. Michael Roberts, DET

The Lions haven't thrown to their tight ends all year, but perhaps the Golden Tate trade and Marvin Jones injury have compelled Detroit to change course. Toilolo lit up the Rams for four catches for 90 yards on six targets Sunday, so we'll need to investigate the situation.

With Roberts (shoulder) out Sunday, Toilolo played more snaps than Willson for the third straight week. Dismissed all of his NFL career as a blocking specialist, it's surprising that Toilolo broke out as a pass catcher over Willson, who's an elite athlete at tight end despite his underwhelming skill set. At 6-foot-8 and nearing 270 pounds with a 40-yard dash barely better than 4.9, it's generally unsurprising that Toilolo runs the least routes per passing snap among Detroit's tight ends, blocking for roughly 34 percent of the time on such snaps.

It will be interesting to see if Sunday's showing forces Detroit to reconsider. I'm something of a Toilolo Truther, and I'd really like to see him get another shot as a pass catcher. Although they were in the same class, Toilolo opened the 2010 season at Stanford as starter over Zach Ertz before a torn ACL ended his season. If he hadn't gotten hurt, Toilolo might not have ever been pigeonholed as a blocking specialist. But Ertz of course exploded in Toilolo's absence, and here we are today.

I can't recommend picking up Toilolo outside of 2TE or maybe 14-team leagues, but I really believe he can produce if Detroit explores giving him more work. Toilolo's career catch rate and YPT rest at 66.7 and 6.9 YPT, respectively. Nothing great, but totally adequate for a guy who never got much chance to develop in the role.