Job Battles: Crowded Chiefs Backfield

With Week 1 on the horizon there are some job battles ongoing yet, as it may take some time for the fallout of final cuts to settle into place.

The blurbs are grouped by position, then sorted loosely in descending fantasy importance.

RUNNING BACK

Damien Williams vs. LeSean McCoy vs. Darwin Thompson vs. Darrel Williams, KC

What an annoying saga this has been! The debates about Damien vs. Hyde or Damien vs. Darwin or whatever else were largely made moot by the free agent signing of McCoy, who the Bills had released at final cuts. The specific meaning of the McCoy signing is up to a wide range of interpretation, and on an objective level it introduces a great deal of chance to a backfield that maybe already had a significant range of outcomes.

McCoy turned 31 in July and struggled to the tune of 3.2 yards per carry last year, but he played through cracked rib cartilage early in the year and then a hamstring injury later on. His increasing age and incidence of injury don't argue for his floor any, but the skill set might be more intact than the numbers imply. With that said, even if McCoy is better than his 2018 numbers, he still might not be as good as Damien or Thompson.

Damien set a rather high bar last year, showing a strong ability to exploit the space created by Pat Mahomes and the Andy Reid scheme. Including playoffs, Damien turned 85 carries into 415 yards (4.88 YPC) and six touchdowns while 38 targets yielded 33 receptions for 251 yards (86.84 percent catch rate, 6.61 YPT) and four touchdowns. For his career, McCoy has a catch rate of 77.49 percent at 5.9 yards per target, and it might be asking a lot of him to close the gap as he drifts further past 30.

On the other hand, if Damien should struggle then McCoy and Thompson both could get their foot in the door, and there's reason to believe one or both would hold their ground from that point. As much as Damien is the toolsiest of the three at more than 220 pounds with 4.45 speed, the Reid offense is generous to any runner who can effectively exploit space. Speed and explosiveness certainly help as far as that goes, but the main takeaway is that the offense calls for elusiveness more than tackle breaking. If so, then McCoy's vulnerability to contact last year (2.5 percent broken tackle percentage, 4th percentile) can only be held against him so much, particularly since Damien wrought carnage last year with a broken tackle percentage of just 6.0 (18th percentile).

There's also the chance that the workload is distributed on a basis other than merit, which would suit McCoy given the long-time familiarity he shares with Reid. That familiarity might be cause to rank McCoy ahead of Thompson at the outset, as the rookie sixth-round pick might receive less benefit of the doubt between the two. But if the question is put up to merit, Thompson may match or exceed McCoy. The 5-foot-8, 198-pound Utah State product might not be able to carry a starter's workload, but he might offer the Chiefs backfield its most explosive option despite whatever usage caps he might face.

Modest as it was to start with, the player whose value takes the clearest hit is Darrel Williams, who previously might have split carries with Thompson in the event of a Damien injury, but now might be subject to the healthy scratch more often than not.

Devin Singletary vs. T.J. Yeldon vs. Frank Gore, BUF

McCoy's release is the gain of these three remaining Buffalo running backs, the most intriguing of which might be Singletary, the rookie third-round pick out of Florida Atlantic. Singletary is short on tools (4.66-second 40, 11.72 agility score at 5-foot-8, 203 pounds) but was monstrously productive in college, where his 4,287 yards (6.0 YPC) and 66 touchdowns in just 38 games led Buffalo to select him the very next pick after the much-hyped David Montgomery in Chicago.

But for all his upside and general promise, Singletary faces two significant obstacles between Yeldon, who might be the team's best passing-down option, and Gore, who even at 37 years old evidently remains a competent runner after averaging 4.6 yards per carry over 146 attempts last year. Whether it's a hot-hand approach or a rotation with designated roles between the three is unclear, and might remain so until the season gets underway.

Ryquell Armstead vs. Tyler Ervin vs. Devine Ozigbo, JAC

Leonard Fournette has earned high praise for his work in training camp, but his durability will be a question mark until he proves he's past the hamstring and ankle issues of prior years. Alfred Blue might have been an obvious candidate to serve as Fournette's backup, but for at least the first eight weeks of this year he'll be on IR with an ankle injury.

That leaves Armstead as the most tenured Jacksonville runner behind Fournette, the fifth-round rookie out of Temple offering intriguing speed (4.45-second 40 at 5-foot-11, 220 pounds) and a high-motor running style that might be reminiscent of former Jacksonville running back Chris Ivory. Despite his advantage over Ervin and Ozigbo, both waiver claims at final cuts, Armstead's fitness for passing-down tasks isn't as clear, and he has his own history of durability issues. But given that Ozigbo wasn't selected in the same draft that the Jaguars took Armstead in the fifth round, we can figure that the Jaguars would safely prefer Armstead initially.

The bigger threat to Armstead is probably Ervin, who could get his foot in the door as a passing-down specialist. Ervin is a former wide receiver whose prospect profile is similar to someone like Nyheim Hines, so he may possess a substantial skill set advantage over the rookies when it comes to hurry-up or long-distance downs.

WIDE RECEIVER

Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. Jake Kumerow, GB

The Job Battles series previously noted the high-ankle sprain suffered by Equanimeous St. Brown and identified it as a boost to the value of Valdes-Scantling and Kumerow, but at the time it wasn't assumed that the Packers would eventually place St. Brown on the season-ending injured reserve. But they did, and now a window that might have existed for only the first month or so of the season will extend to its duration, significantly improving the opportunity for MVS and Kumerow.

Valdes-Scantling remains the clear starting outside receiver opposite Davante Adams, and Geronimo Allison is presumably still relatively unchallenged in the slot. But even with MVS' obvious gain with St. Brown out of the picture, it's worth recalling the upside in Kumerow's case, too. He's likely no worse than the team's fourth wideout at this point, and an injury to any of the top three might result in Kumerow playing 80 percent or more of the team's snaps in such a case. And if MVS struggles in his second season – it's not out of the question after he caught just 51.4 percent of his targets last year – then Kumerow would be the obvious beneficiary of any decrease in MVS' playing time or usage.

Kenny Stills vs. Keke Coutee, HOU

DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are the clear top receivers in this offense, and the arrival of Duke Johnson from Cleveland figures to mark an impending increase in the backfield's target share from prior years. But particularly with Laremy Tunsil in town, it's easy to imagine Deshaun Watson playing in a permanent shootout mode given his suddenly improved supporting cast.

Indeed, that Stills and Coutee are fighting for the third wideout role is a testament to Houston's dominant assortment of talent at the position, as Stills is an explosive receiver who can play inside or out, while Coutee flashed major upside as a slot target in his rookie season, turning 55 targets into 39 catches for 397 yards (70.91 percent catch rate, 7.22 YPT) and two touchdowns. But Coutee has struggled with durability, a hamstring injury pestering him the majority of last year while a preseason ankle injury this year has his Week 1 availability in some question.

It's not clear whether Stills' potential advantages in experience and skill are undone by his need to learn a new offense, but if Stills can catch on to the scheme then he would offer a substantial amount of explosive talent to a quarterback who probably didn't need any more. I argued in an article last week (click here) that Stills is an above average starting NFL receiver, so I'm intrigued about how he might fit into his new, more high-scoring environment.

Rashard Higgins vs. Taywan Taylor vs. Antonio Callaway, CLE

Callaway has to overcome a high ankle sprain and four-game suspension to start the year, and that's assuming that Cleveland has any plans to utilize him afterward. It's possible that they don't, especially if the team's cutdown day trade for Taylor is any indication.

Taylor couldn't earn consistent playing time in Tennessee, where he struggled some with drops last year. His peripheral stats are still promising, though, and he's only in his third season as a third-round pick out of Western Kentucky, where he was wildly productive. Taylor was one of the most dominant receivers in college, his highlight season being a 98-catch, 1,730-yard effort on just 140 targets (70 percent catch rate, 12.36 YPT) in 14 games in 2016. His two NFL seasons have been less impressive, but 84 targets in the Tennessee offense can go for a lot worse than 53 catches for 697 yards (63.1 percent catch rate, 8.3 YPT).

Depending on how quickly he catches on, Taylor could eventually pose a complication for Higgins, who otherwise has a lot going for him following a strong 2018 season and 2019 training camp. If Higgins should struggle, then Taylor has the talent to offer Cleveland an interesting alternative. For now, though, there's no more reason to anticipate struggle for Higgins than Jarvis Landry.