IDP Analysis: Baker Breakout

IDP Analysis: Baker Breakout

This article is part of our IDP Analysis series.

RISING

Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, DAL

If Smith is still eligible at defensive line in your IDP league, then he should probably be a top-priority pickup. The Cowboys threw a curveball by listing Smith as a starting outside linebacker rather than a defensive end, which might have removed Smith's DL eligibility in some formats, but in those where he's still listed at DE we could have a standout producer whose production value is compounded by a positional loophole of playing more like a linebacker but having his point totals graded relative to defensive linemen. It's easier to pile up tackles at linebacker than defensive end, which might have something to do with Smith's staggering total of 11 tackles and one sack in Week 1. The tackle rate will fall off and perhaps he'll be less than great as a pass rusher too, but a tackle rate of half of Smith's Week 1 total would still have him at the higher end of the DL1 spectrum in most formats.

Jerome Baker, LB, MIA

There was question going into this year whether the Dolphins would give Baker a three-down role, but after the Raekwon McMillan trade and especially after Week 1, it's clear the Miami is rolling with Baker as their lead linebacker, placing him in LB1 contention in most formats. Baker somehow piled up 16 tackles (13 solo) against the Patriots on Sunday, adding one sack and one forced fumble on 61 snaps. That will probably go down as his

RISING

Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, DAL

If Smith is still eligible at defensive line in your IDP league, then he should probably be a top-priority pickup. The Cowboys threw a curveball by listing Smith as a starting outside linebacker rather than a defensive end, which might have removed Smith's DL eligibility in some formats, but in those where he's still listed at DE we could have a standout producer whose production value is compounded by a positional loophole of playing more like a linebacker but having his point totals graded relative to defensive linemen. It's easier to pile up tackles at linebacker than defensive end, which might have something to do with Smith's staggering total of 11 tackles and one sack in Week 1. The tackle rate will fall off and perhaps he'll be less than great as a pass rusher too, but a tackle rate of half of Smith's Week 1 total would still have him at the higher end of the DL1 spectrum in most formats.

Jerome Baker, LB, MIA

There was question going into this year whether the Dolphins would give Baker a three-down role, but after the Raekwon McMillan trade and especially after Week 1, it's clear the Miami is rolling with Baker as their lead linebacker, placing him in LB1 contention in most formats. Baker somehow piled up 16 tackles (13 solo) against the Patriots on Sunday, adding one sack and one forced fumble on 61 snaps. That will probably go down as his best game of the year, but Baker is an athletic player in a run-heavy division, so he should continue standing out among linebacker IDPs.

Johnathan Abram, S, LV

A first-round pick of the Raiders' in 2019, Abram missed almost all of his rookie season after suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 1 after just 49 snaps. Now 67 snaps into the 2020 season, Abram has seemingly arrived as a standout IDP option in the secondary. Known for his hitting ability at Mississippi State, Abram reinforced that perception by racing to 13 tackles (nine solo) against Carolina on Sunday. Although it's true that Abram probably isn't the type of safety to make an impact in coverage, tackles are the most desirable commodity in the IDP market and Abram should be a standout producer in that category.

Alexander Johnson, ILB, DEN

Johnson had the look of a breakout player going into 2020, and if the first game is any indication then he's exactly that. Johnson played all 81 snaps in Denver's Week 1 loss to Tennessee, according to the 9News' Mike Klis. Johnson piled up 12 tackles (eight solo) on those snaps, putting him on an early pace to blast past triple-digit tackles with ease.

Adrian Phillips, S, NE

Phillips only played 43 snaps against Miami on Sunday, but according to Pro Football Focus almost all of those snaps occurred from a linebacker-like position. Phillips made the most of those snaps, finishing with nine tackles (eight solo) and one interception. Although it'd be nice to see Phillips play more snaps, his history says that his current workload should prove sufficient for him to make a standout IDP impact, especially if he keeps lining up at linebacker. Phillips only need 683 snaps to post 94 tackles in 2018 -- most defensive backs need at least 900 snaps to do that -- and in 2019 Phillips produced 36 tackles on only 282 snaps. If his current role continues, he can probably be thought of as a high-upside DB2 in any given week.

Germaine Pratt, LB, CIN

Pratt did well in Week 1, playing as sort of a 2.5-down player next to fellow starter Josh Bynes and totaling 12 tackles (seven solo) on 54 snaps. Although he still needs to hold off the rookie duo of Logan Wilson (22 snaps) and Akeem Davis-Gaither (20 snaps), Pratt has reliably shown the ability to pile up tackles at a uniquely high rate, and if Wilson or Davis-Gaither gain more work from here it might be at Bynes' expense before Pratt. With about a 900-snap role for his current projection, Pratt is on course to easily clear triple-digit tackles in his second season out of North Carolina State.

FALLING

Leighton Vander-Esch, LB, DAL

Vander-Esch will cruelly miss the rest of the season after suffering a collarbone injury against the Rams on Sunday. Vander-Esch might have been the only linebacker in the league with a shot at keeping up with Darius Leonard in the race to be LB1, but now Dallas will have to try to replace him with Joe Thomas.

Taylor Rapp, S, LAR

Perhaps there's some sort of subtext to the situation, but after totaling 100 tackles on 834 snaps as a rookie second-round pick in 2019 Rapp appears to have fallen behind 2020 sixth-round pick Jordan Fuller on the depth chart. Rapp played only 15 snaps against Dallas on Sunday, most of them at slot corner rather than safety. Fuller, meanwhile, played 71 snaps and made eight tackles. It would be bizarre if Rapp just disappeared behind a rookie sixth-round pick, but Fuller played well in the game and didn't exactly earn a demotion.

Tremaine Edmunds, LB, BUF

Although it's not expected to be a long-term issue, Edmunds left Sunday's game against the Jets with a shoulder injury after playing 36 snaps, on which he totaled three tackles. Fellow standout linebacker Matt Milano also left the game, his issue being a hamstring injury. If the Bills are down their top two linebackers against the Dolphins, then A.J. Klein would likely need to step up as the LB1.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mario Puig
Mario is a Senior Writer at RotoWire who primarily writes and projects for the NFL and college football sections.
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