This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Previously, I shared my guillotine league rankings, crafted based on my eight tips to win your league. The next layer of strategy is to identify where we can find the best value in each round. I've combed through the average draft position data from guillotineleagues.com drafts so far and compared it to my rankings to identify the best pick in each round based on a full 18-team league.
Round 1 - Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles
The top 10 picks on Guillotine Leagues do not stray away from what we've been seeing in typical redraft leagues. However, the draft gets interesting at pick no. 11, where the top quarterbacks and tight ends start to come off the board. This is pushing elite options like Barkley down the board, presenting an opportunity to get a high floor, high ceiling player at the end of the round.
Round 2 - Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
Evans has 10 straight seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards and has only missed one game in the past four seasons. Last season, he had just four games scoring under 10 points in PPR leagues. Combine that reliability with the most favorable early-season schedule for fantasy receivers, and you've got yourself the ideal second round guillotine league pick.
Round 3 - Michael Pittman, WR, Colts
In the past three seasons, Pittman is averaging 99 catches for 1,053 receiving yards with below average starting quarterbacks. His touchdown totals have left a lot to be desired, but his target share as the alpha receiver in Indianapolis makes him one of the safest choices in the third round, ahead of fellow third-rounders Malik Nabers, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell and Zay Flowers.
Round 4 - Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons
Based on the past two seasons Pitts is certainly the riskiest pick of my choices so far. However, I see him as the best tight end value in this league format based on guillotineleagues.com ADP. Last season I grabbed T.J. Hockenson late in the third round of my guillotine league draft and had him locked in as my starting tight end all the way to a championship. This season I'll look for new Atlanta QB Kirk Cousins to elevate Pitts to fantasy stardom the way he lifted Hockenson.
Round 5 - Najee Harris, RB, Steelers
The narrative on Harris is that he has been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy football the past two years. The reality is that Harris is the only player in the league with over 1,000 rushing yards each of the past three seasons, making him one of the safest picks at this point in the draft. A rough start last year may have soured fantasy owners on him, but after the Week 6 bye, he posted a solid 13.7 PPR points per game. I expect improved quarterback play and new Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith's run scheme to open things up for Harris in 2024.
Round 6 - Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos
There are sure to be ups and downs with a rookie quarterback, but I expect Sutton to be the veteran wide receiver who brings some stability to the offense. Sutton is the clear top target in Denver, making him a much safer pick than other receivers being drafted ahead of him, such as Christian Watson, Keon Coleman and Jameson Williams, who may not even be the second or third option on their teams.
Round 7 - Jared Goff, QB, Lions
We've waited long enough on finding our quarterback. I'm going back to the well on Goff, who I drafted as my starting quarterback in the ninth round of my guillotine league in 2023. After a great season, his stock is up but still not as high as it should be. Currently the 16th QB off the board, Goff has one of the most favorable schedules to start the season and doesn't have to play an outdoor game until November.
Round 8 - Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers
Ignore the player name and team above for a moment and consider this blind resume:
- This 25-year-old finished 20th in the league in rushing in 2023 with 902 yards.
- He was also 22nd among running backs in receptions.
- He finished the season with seven straight weeks of double-digit PPR scoring.
Despite that solid fantasy effort, Hubbard is the only NFL starting running back being drafted outside the top 130. While his time at the top of the depth chart may not last long with rookie Jonathon Brooks expected to make his debut sometime after Week 4, Hubbard may be the only RB who can provide immediate fantasy value at this point in the draft.
Round 9 - DeMario Douglas, WR, Patriots
As a rookie last year, Douglas emerged as the top receiving option in New England, attracting at least five targets in each of the last nine games. With a lot of new faces on the roster, the depth chart is not set in stone, but the fact that Douglas sits atop it to start the season makes him a value this deep into the draft.
Round 10 - Cade Otton, TE, Buccaneers
Tyler Conklin is another player who deserves consideration in this range, but I'll give Otton the edge because he has a more favorable schedule to start the season. After flashing great potential in the playoffs (13 catches for 154 yards and a TD), Otton could be on the verge of a breakout season in his third year in the league.
Round 11 - Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, Giants
The knock on Robinson in his young career has been his lack of availability. In two seasons he has missed 15 games and been limited in three others. But when he has been on the field, he's been a solid PPR player, gathering 4 receptions while attracting 5.2 targets per game. Now healthy, Robinson could have a breakout season, and he has been one of my favorite players to take late in drafts of all formats.
Round 12 - Derek Carr, QB, Saints
Carr is the type of fantasy player who isn't likely to win a game for you, but he's also not likely to lose it. He's in good company with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as the only quarterbacks to finish top-14 in the league in passing yards each of the past three seasons. However, his upside is limited due to red zone struggles and a lack of any rushing upside.
Round 13 - Trey Sermon, RB, Colts
At this point in the draft, we could choose a pass-catcher who may be able to contribute some modest production immediately, but I'd rather go with a backup RB with workhorse upside like Sermon. In one start for the Colts last year, Sermon took 17 carries for 88 yards. With Zack Moss heading to Cincinnati, Sermon is in line to be the top back if Jonathan Taylor were to miss any time this season.
Round 14 - Samaje Perine, RB, Chiefs
While Isiah Pacheco has been regarded as the clear top back in Kansas City all offseason, there has been a lot of speculation about who would earn the backup roles. Deneric Prince appeared to be in a battle with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Louis Rees-Zammit was getting some love too, as he was even selected in the 19th round of my Scott Fish Bowl 14 draft! Now that the dust has settled, Prince and Rees-Zammit got cut, Edwards-Helaire has been ruled out for at least the first four weeks, and Samaje Perine was signed after getting cut by Denver. Perine's history as a strong receiving threat makes him an intriguing pick who you'll soon have to start reaching for a couple rounds earlier.
What is a Guillotine League?
Guillotine Leagues are the most competitive way to play fantasy football. It's like traditional fantasy football, with a few twists.
Here's how it works:
1. Set up and draft your team just like traditional fantasy football
2. Each week the lowest scoring team gets eliminated
3. All of the players from the eliminated team become free agents
4. A weekly FAAB bidding war starts among the remaining teams
5. Survive the chop and be crowned champion
Because it's a survivor-style format, you can start leagues any week of the season for as long as you want!
Public and Private Leagues are open, survive the chop, try GuillotineLeagues.com.
