Exploiting the Matchups: Week 3 Start/Sit

Every year, without fail: Every year following Week 2 action, I start to get that itch.

There's always a handful of guys from whom I stayed away in drafts or simply didn't have a reasonable chance to grab who look so damn good I get ready to break the trade piggy bank into a million pieces.

I sit there in the trade page of whatever site and check off the names I want, hem and haw over with whom I'm comfortable parting (usually my underachievers with name value or a guy who popped off a big game unexpectedly) and then hit cancel and go do something else to distract me from my own insanity.

It's a sickness, and I'd like to think I'm not alone in this. There's always plenty of industry speak happening that also gets into my ears and starts my wheels turning too (not that they're not already in full, out-of-shape hamster slowly turning a wheel mode anyways).

So, in lieu of a introduction of advice for a week that was especially hard to downgrade top talent, let's look at a handful of names I'm aggressively targeting and prices I'd consider paying. It'd take up an entire column to include tiers or sell guys, so we'll just focus on the top guys I want to add.

Spoiler alert: you will see some of these names in the upgrade section below.

Kenny Golladay

Mike Williams is a fair cost in what I view as a relatively "like-for-like" deal; both have awesome talent upside, but Golladay's breaks have already happened. Detroit's D is putrid. If I'm being hyper-aggressive, I'll toy with a Corey Davis offer. Volume alone can't save him from Tennessee's messy offense.

Will Fuller

While not likely, hopefully you can find an owner willing to sell high without realizing how high he/she should be selling. Try to capitalize on an owner who does not trust Fuller's durability. I'd start with something like a John Brown offer – another hyped speedster who's scored twice already – and would be willing to go with a running back who's started strong. Jay Ajayi, Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman are names that come to mind. They all have warts, and I don't see the upside or consistency that Fuller offers when paired with Deshaun Watson.

Sammy Watkins

Find that owner who is still benching Watkins and offer depth at whatever position he/she needs. Fair offers to me are guys like Alfred Morris, Isaiah Crowell and Keelan Cole. Heck, even Tyler Lockett might close this deal. While those guys are all good depth, Watkins is a guy that needs to be started everywhere. The Chiefs are a fantasy smorgasbord.

Chris Godwin

DeSean Jackson is going bananas, but Godwin is still productive, and his best days are ahead once Jackson slows down or gets hurt. He has a lot of truthers who will be slow to come off him now, so he may require a down week to get at a fair price, but I'm willing to pay more than market. I'd fork over a Cooper Kupp, Randall Cobb, Lockett or even possibly Cole, who to me is Jacksonville's true No. 1 wideout.

Joe Mixon

I'd try to leverage the news about a slightly torn meniscus to prey on a panicked owner, especially if one who lacks RB depth and doesn't own Giovani Bernard. That owner might be willing to add a starting tailback who's registered one or two good games – maybe Adrian Peterson, Carlos Hyde, Matt Breida or Tevin Coleman. Mixon is special and can be again this year. A 2-for-1 to give that owner depth may be the way to go, but it's definitely worth taking shots if you can get by while Mixon is out without whoever you'd give up.

So there you have it. If you're in a league with me, you should trade me one of these guys so I can scratch that annoyingly persistent itch.

Note: This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece. My goal is to provide perspective you may not have considered and help make those tough decisions easier -- or make you rethink those "no-brainer" choices.

Upgrades are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top 20 RB/WR, top 10 QB/TE) but are set to boost their production. Downgrades are worth benching or, for some bigger names, should be held to lower expectations for this week.

UPGRADE

I'm just going to leave this stat here real quick in case anyone is still miffed by Garoppolo's disappointing 206 yards versus the Lions: Through two games, the Chiefs have allowed a league-high 876 passing yards. 8. 7. 6.

Blake Bortles, JAX vs. TEN

Ryan Tannehill and Deshaun Watson have each pitched it for at least 230 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans, with each connecting on a deep score of at least 39 yards. At last look, all the top wideouts for Jacksonville – Keelan Cole, Dede Westbrook, Donte Moncrief and D.J. Chark – have deep speed. Moreover, despite not trailing in the second half yet this year, Bortles is averaging 39.0 pass attempts per game. That he's also tacked on at least 35 yards rushing each week is a nice bonus.

Joe Flacco, BAL vs. DEN

Only the Saints (who got FitzMagic'd in Week 1) and the Cardinals have allowed more YPA than the 9.0 Denver has relented thus far. And it's not as if the Broncos are getting beaten one correctable way. Against Russell Wilson, they gave up huge plays of 51 and 66 yards, but Derek Carr and the Raiders sliced and diced them by completing a ridiculous 29 of 32 pass attempts, none of which went for more than 30 yards. Flacco has tossed multiple touchdowns in both outings and was productive in positive and negative game scripts. His assortment of weapons has possibly never been better, and his protection is strong. With Michael Crabtree, John Brown, Willie Snead and a deep crop of tight ends, count on him keeping up the hot start.

Mitchell Trubisky, CHI at ARI

For those in two-quarterback and superflex formats, don't sweat Trubisky's mediocre 5.4 YPA and limited passing yardage. He's manufactured three touchdowns and showed improvement in Week 2. Reasons to be optimistic for him this week are two-fold: (1) Arizona's defense is playing slow, undisciplined football, which has led to a dreadful 72.6 percent completion rate and 9.8 YPA to opposing QB, and (2) Trubisky's a legit dual threat. He's run for 56 yards and a score, and those numbers should be consistent with Matt Nagy's occasional injection of the read option to Chicago's unique offense.

RB
Sony Michel, NE at DET

The Lions are quickly becoming one of a handful of defenses ripe for the fantasy picking, as they've allowed an average of 39.0 points per game and are dead-last in rushing defense (179.5 yards per contest). They've now given up rushing touchdowns of more than 60 yards in consecutive weeks and at least 65 scrimmage yards to four different tailbacks. After Michel led the Patriots with 10 rushing attempts in his rookie debut despite missing the entire preseason with a knee injury, it seems he'll quickly become the preferred early-down runner. And considering his 10 carries came in a contest that they trailed 21-3 at halftime, it wouldn't be surprising if that number doubled in a much more competitive match.

Corey Clement, PHI vs. IND

Yes, the Jay Ajayi back injury could open Clement up to a feature role in what couldn't be better timing. The Colts defense is coming to town, and Carson Wentz is returning to the field. Now, the latter may not do a ton, but that's not the point. Indy will almost certainly be more worried about Wentz's arm than they would have been versus Nick Foles. What's truly important to watch with this situation is the status of Darren Sproles' achy hamstring. The Colts have allowed at least 50 receiving yards to a tailback in both games thus far, and Clement will be a flex option even if Ajayi is in as long as Sproles is out. He hauled in 55 yards out of the backfield last week and displayed excellent receiving chops with his memorable 100-yard Super Bowl. In other words, there's big upside here as long as Clement has a path to touches.

Isaiah Crowell, NYJ at CLE

The motivation is always to play one's best and do what the team needs to get a win, but it's also always a bit elevated when someone gets to face the team that discarded him. And make no mistake, that's exactly what happened when Crowell left Cleveland last year for Gang Greener pastures. After getting into the league as an undrafted free agent with the Browns, Crowell gave them four good years, never missing a game and leading them in rushing the past three seasons. The "thunder" side of New York's backfield returns to the "Dawg Pound" to face a Browns defense that struggled to slow the physical running of James Conner in Week 1.

Latavius Murray, MIN vs. BUF

Murray has all of 15 carries this season and no targets in the passing game, but with the bumbling Bills coming to town, he might match or exceed that number this week. Extended garbage time is almost inevitable after Buffalo has been outscored 54-3 in the first half this year. In those two contests, four different running backs have tallied a total of six touchdowns against them – including all three Ravens tailbacks – while Austin Ekeler, the only one not to score, totaled 98 scrimmage yards. With Dalvin Cook also nursing a sore hamstring, Murray may even draw an unexpected start in this ideal matchup.

Frank Gore, MIA vs. OAK

Adam Gase was not kidding in the offseason when he talked about the Dolphins backfield as if they had two starting running backs, and the proof is in the distribution of carries through two weeks. Gore has seen 41.8% of the rushing attempts by a tailback and has averaged 5.5 yards per touch to Kenyan Drake's disappointing 4.3 average. The senior citizen of RBs is still running downstream like an angry river, and against a Raiders defense that's relented a league-worst 5.7 YPC, Gore could rip off some chunk yardage on his low-double-digit touch allotment.

WR
Sammy Watkins, KC vs. SF

Patrick Mahomes hands out touchdowns like Oprah hands out free stuff. Watkins, despite posting a 100-yard day versus the Steelers, somehow did not get one of the six Mahomes threw. With a defense that will keep Kansas City throwing plenty, it's only a matter of time before Watkins cashes in his first, especially as he continues to develop chemistry with the league's newest stat machine.

Kenny Golladay, DET vs. NE

PSA: Mr. Golladay is here simply because it is the last time this season he can be justified as an "upgrade" and not just an everyweek lineup fixture. He's off to a fantastic start as the Lions' leader in receiving yards. In fact, he's 11th in the entire league and not likely to slow down this week against a Patriots defense that was just burned for 198 yards and a score each by Jacksonville wideouts Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook.

Chris Godwin, TB vs. PIT

Buy. The. Hype. "FitzMagic" is for real, and after catching one of Ryan Fitzpatrick's four touchdown passes in consecutive games, Godwin is beginning to prove himself as a big part of one of the two hottest offenses in the NFL. After watching the Steelers get shredded for six passing scores last week, expect a primetime shootout to keep this trendy sleeper wideout putting his stamp on the box score.

Keelan Cole & Dede Westbrook, JAX vs. TEN

Sure, they faced a couple awfully good wideouts last week, but after DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller burned the Tennessee secondary for over 100 yards and a touchdown each, the Titans became the only defense in the league to have allowed three different wideouts to top the century mark and find the end zone. And in Week 1, Kenny Stills hit paydirt twice. They seem especially susceptible deep, as both Stills and Fuller hauled in a score of at least 39 yards. That bodes well for Cole and Westbrook, each of whom has displayed the long speed to get behind defenders for big gains. With Leonard Fournette still nursing a hamstring injury and Blake Bortles riding a hot streak, either of these second-year wideouts offers major upside in this divisional showdown.

Tyler Boyd, CIN at CAR

Maybe Boyd just likes playing the Ravens, but after posting exactly 91 yards and a touchdown twice against the AFC North rival since Week 17 of 2017, it's clear he's over the disappearing act he pulled for the rest of his second season. Now the third-year wideout will look to keep the momentum going against a Panthers defense whose strength is in their front seven. They've allowed three receivers to post at least 64 yards and after tying for the team lead in targets (nine) and the Bengals losing starting tailback Joe Mixon to a knee injury, a pass-happier offense will likely add Boyd to that list versus Carolina's shaky corners.

TE
O.J. Howard, TB vs. PIT

Howard has only tallied five catches in two games, but look what he's doing wigaropth those catches. He was a first-round draft pick in 2017 because he's a disgusting combo of size (6-6, 251 pounds), speed (4.51 40 time) and soft hands (10-inch hands -- that's right, he has baseball gloves for hands). It should not come as some great surprise that his five catches have gone for 150 yards and a score. And when he burns a miserable Steelers secondary that just saw Travis Kelce top 100 yards with two touchdowns, that should not be surprising either. After all, everything "FitzMagic" touches turns to gold.

Jake Butt, DEN at BAL

While Butt is mostly reserved for deep-league consideration, he tied for second on the Broncos in Week 2 targets (catching four of fix for 48 yards) and draws a Baltimore defense that allowed three Bengals tight ends to account for seven catches and 79 yards last week. If Denver finds itself throwing more versus a beefy Baltimore front seven that's limited running backs to 184 scrimmage yards this season, Butt could improve even more.

DOWNGRADE

To say that Wilson is more mobile in the pocket than Eli Manning would be perhaps the greatest understatement in NFL history. Still, the Seahawks offense line has shown the last two weeks against the elite pass rushes of Denver and Chicago that even his mobility is not enough behind awful protection. Unless he's spent this week learning the mystic arts mastered by Dr. Strange that allow him to travel through time and space, he'll again be under immense pressure by a Dallas defense that has allowed just one passing touchdown – in garbage time to Manning in Week 2 – and held the equally mobile Cam Newton to 161 yards passing in Week 1.

Philip Rivers, LAC at LAR

Rivers is off to a great start with over 250 yards and three scores in consecutive games, but this week he'll draw his toughest test of the season right in his own backyard. It's not just that the Rams feature defensive stars such as Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib – the latter two familiar faces from their AFC West days – but it's also who's lining them up to cause the most destruction possible that will haunt Rivers this week. In four meetings against a Wade Phillips-coached Broncos defense between 2015 and 2016, the Chargers' gunslinger averaged 218.8 yards and 1.25 scores with as many interceptions as touchdowns. Despite all the weapons Rivers has, Phillips has the know-how and personnel to neutralize them. It's that simple.

Carson Wentz, PHI vs. IND

Wait one week. Wentz was nothing short of fantastic last year, but that was with his full assortment of weapons and the deft mobility that he's unlikely to have in his first action back from a torn ACL suffered just over nine months ago. For as much turnover as the Colts defense saw during the offseason, there appears to be a real chance they've significantly improved despite the assumption their young assortment of misfits would stink. In fact, they were quite good slowing down Alex Smith last week and are one of only seven defenses to have allowed less than 550 yards passing and two or fewer total touchdowns to quarterbacks so far. That means a rusty Wentz could be in for a slow start with all of Alshon Jeffery (shoulder), Jay Ajayi (back) and Mike Wallace (leg/IR) either out of commission or playing hurt. To pile on, let's not forget Colts head coach Frank Reich was Wentz's offensive coordinator since he entered the league in 2016. He knows every strength and weakness and can help create a gameplan to limit what Wentz does well.

RB
David Johnson, ARI vs. CHI

The argument against Johnson is quite simple. The Cardinals currently have 51 fewer passing yards than the Bills and have scored 17 fewer points. They are as anemic an offense as you could possibly find, and with the new-look "Monsters of the Midway" coming to town, things are not looking up for Johnson.

James White, NE at DET

With the rest of the backfield banged-up to start the season, White has produced at least 84 scrimmage yards or a score in a pivotal role for a depleted Patriots offense. Sony Michel's entrance into the lineup, however, will only limit him as the season wears on, and in a matchup with a Lions defense ranked dead-last at defending the run, this contest figures to feature heavy doses of Michel and Rex Burkhead carrying the ball in a contest New England may control from start to finish.

LeSean McCoy, BUF at MIN

As if playing in the AFC's worst offense wasn't enough to hinder McCoy's productivity, he'll now be battling through the pain of cracked rib cartilage the next time he suits up. If that happens to be this Sunday, it will be more than the rib injury slowing him down. The Vikings are loaded at all three levels of defense and have given up the fifth-fewest points to opposing tailbacks in PPR scoring.

WR
Corey Davis, TEN at JAX

Just in case you needed encouragement to bench Davis – whom you likely drafted as a starter – here it is. Despite 20 targets, he's managed just 117 yards (5.9 YPT) and is likely to be as quiet as a church mouse with Tennessee's garbage quarterback play encountering this elite Jacksonville secondary. No bueno.

Keenan Allen, LAC at LAR

Three of Allen's five lowest yardage totals in 2017 (54 yards or less) came against the Broncos and Chiefs, who featured Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters in their secondaries, respectively. Both are now lining up for the Chargers' hometown rivals. Allen is not someone to bench unless you're utterly hemorrhaging stud wide receivers, but expectations should be tempered and accounted for with other starting decisions.

Chris Hogan, NE at DET

"The student versus the master" chess match that will take place between Matt Patricia and Bill Belichick on the sidelines shouldn't really impact what happens on the field too much. The Lions are not a good run defense, and a balanced Patriots attack should build a lead much in the way the Jets and 49ers have done so against Detroit. Due largely to lopsided affairs, the Lions have had the league's fewest passes attempted against them – just 47 in eight quarters of action. So, although Hogan somehow scored twice on the vaunted Jaguars secondary despite registering only three catches, a repeat is unlikely. Not only could Brady be throwing less, but Hogan could also lose looks because of the Josh Gordon addition. Even if he doesn't, though, Hogan might find himself limited by 2017 All-Pro corner Darius Slay.

TE
Trey Burton, CHI at ARI

For the second week in a row, Burton put up garbage yards. He saved his fantasy day with a short touchdown reception, but for a guy facing a defense that's generously given up yards to running backs and wide receivers, it has to make his owners awfully nervous that he's averaging a pitiful 3.5 YPT. Until Burton starts getting deployed on more downfield routes or catch-and-run opportunities, his floor and ceiling both look quite low.