Exploiting the Matchups: Siemian Can Sling It

It makes me sad that we won't get to watch Aaron Rodgers and his younger, bigger clone play this weekend. In case you haven't had enough Carson Wentz hyperbole this week, there's another slice.

In all seriousness though, would anyone be surprised if Wentz turns into a weekly starter in 12-team leagues by midseason? All the tools are clearly there, the run game is suspect and the receiving corps is underrated. And he's played the past two games without his No. 2 target, Zach Ertz, who could be back from a rib injury as soon as next week. For the football fan in me that won't own him anywhere, I'm dying to see Wentz play the Vikings in Week 7 and travel to Seattle in November.

Moving on from the rookie lovefest, lets quickly address the bye week from a fantasy perspective. Since Week 4 is just dipping a toe into the bye schedules with only the Packers and Eagles out of action, only owners of Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and to a lesser extent, Eddie Lacy and the Eagles defense, are significantly affected. Jordan Matthews looked great in the season opener and will have his moments, but with Wentz rapidly gaining more comfort in the offense, he's spreading the ball around significantly more. Going forward, Matthews looks like little more than a nice matchup flex or WR3. Among the missing talent, Nelson is the toughest to replace, but fortunately his is the deepest position.

Since we can sleep easy knowing the bye won't hurt us, let's quickly examine the overall fantasy landscape before getting on with why we're here. For a running back position that's been brutalized by injuries already -- Adrian Peterson (knee), Doug Martin (hamstring), Thomas Rawls (leg), Ameer Abdullah (foot), Jonathan Stewart (hamstring), Jeremy Langford (ankle), Arian Foster (groin) and Danny Woodhead (knee) -- it's awfully nice to see Le'Veon Bell and Jamaal Charles returning. It will be interesting, and possibly very unfortunate from a fantasy perspective, to see if each finds themselves in a regular committee given the success backups DeAngelo Williams and Spencer Ware have had in their absences. Either way, it's a relief to see two veteran stars back on the field with so many young replacement runners clouding fantasy rankings this early in the season.

Beyond the tailbacks, owners can rejoice that Tom Brady and Josh Gordon are a week away from joining and potentially rocking their respective positions (one of course being a heck of a lot safer bet than the other). Except for those forthcoming shakeups, for those throwing and catching the ball, the position groups remain relatively status quo from what we could have reasonably expected entering the year. Tight ends have largely been a source of frustration, but that will even out in short order. There have been 138 passing touchdowns just three weeks into the season and only 17 of those have gone to running backs. That means just as we knew it would, receivers (and tight ends to a lesser extent -- they've snagged 32 of those scores) will be plentiful options and cornering the market on top passers and wideouts will key more championships than anything.
As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Philip Rivers, SD vs. NO

He may not have the weapons you'd like, but it's still a New Orleans defense that's allowed 89 points in three games (the G-Men scored a touchdown on special teams) traveling to southern Cali. Melvin Gordon can set up the pass versus a dreadful Saints front seven while Rivers spreads the ball around for chunk gains all day. For those crafty owners who snatched him to back up Rodgers, he's the perfect bye-week replacement.

Joe Flacco, BAL vs. OAK

Don't be fooled. The Raiders seemed to solve their woes defending the pass last week by completely shutting down Marcus Mariota, but the young signal caller forced things the whole game and was missing his favorite target in Delanie Walker. Oakland is still the same group that bled more than 800 yards through the air in the two weeks prior, and Flacco has far more than Mariota's 15 career starts to prepare him for a bad secondary flying across country for a 1 p.m. EDT kickoff.

Trevor Siemian, DEN at TB

Siemian can sling it. After an ultra-conservative pass attack saw Siemian attempt the fewest throws traveling 20 yards through the air in the first two weeks, he diced up a highly stingy Cincinnati secondary for scores of 41 and 55 yards to complete a day more than 300 yards and with four TDs. Just imagine what he can do to a Buccaneers defense that even let Case Keenum burn them for two scores of more than 40 yards.

Brian Hoyer, CHI vs. DET

If you are looking for a second quarterback in two-QB leagues, you can do much worse than Hoyer. The veteran backup could be the king of garbage time this week. He managed to top 300 yards and throw two scores last week while trailing despite Alshon Jeffery only contributing 70 yards to the cause. Now he gets to try to keep pace with Matthew Stafford while throwing against a defense that's allowed a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in three games.

Running Back

Dwayne Washington, DET at CHI

Four running backs have at least 10 carries against the Packers. T.J. Yeldon, Adrian Peterson and Theo Riddick combined for 67 yards on 43 rushes (1.6 YPC). Washington -- using a one-cut-and-go style -- managed 38 on 10 attempts facing that same stingy group. With Abdullah sidelined, the 223-pound Washington will use his size, good feet and quick acceleration to earn more carries. Facing a decimated Bears D that just got hammered on the ground by the Cowboys (199 yards and three touchdowns), he has to be considered for your flex position.

Jordan Howard, CHI vs. DET

The far more explosive of the two running backs in Chicago, it looks like Howard may have snatched the lead-back duties away from Jeremy Langford for good with the latter now out with an ankle injury. And the timing couldn't be better for Howard with a Lions defense that's surrendered a league-high 5.1 yards per carry on tap. While Langford watches from the sidelines, expect his rookie teammate to cash in on his superior combination of vision, burst and power.

Duke Johnson, CLE at WAS

With a rookie quarterback under center, the Browns finally leaned on their thunder and lightning duo of Isaiah Crowell and Johnson. The latter gashed the Dolphins for 69 yards on 10 carries and is now primed to carve up a Washington defense that just let Shane Vereen and Orleans Darkwa both top 5.0 YPC and score on the ground.

T.J. Yeldon, JAC vs. IND (in London)

After doing nothing to seize lead duties while Chris Ivory missed the first two games, Yeldon may have gotten a break when Ivory tweaked both his knee and ankle in his first appearance of the season last week. Though he's struggled to find any running room and averaged an embarrassing 2.5 YPC, Yeldon is set up to redeem himself facing a Colts squad that's allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tailbacks.

Wide Receiver

Terrelle Pryor, CLE at WAS

Making just his third-career start at wide receiver, Pryor went all Kordell Stewart 2.0 and turned in one of the best multi-threat performances since the Swiss Army knife that was Stewart was making plays for the Steelers in the '90s. Pryor piled up exactly 200 yards receiving, rushing and throwing while looking like far more than a gadget player. His size, speed and natural athleticism have helped him transition smoothly to a position he'd never played until a year ago and he'll continue to showcase those mismatch talents against a Redskins defense that has allowed six receivers to top 70 yards in three games.

Steve Smith, BAL vs. OAK

Jalen Ramsey, a hot-shot rookie corner, told Smith he ain't insert-expletive-here (or something to that effect). Now the Raiders' sad secondary has to deal with the repercussions of an angry future Hall-of-Famer who's built his bust-worthy career on a doubt-fueled inferno of passion.

Travis Benjamin & Tyrell Williams, SD vs. NO

All this duo has done in two games sans Keenan Allen (knee) is post statlines of 10-197-2 and 9-130-1 respectively while gobbling up a combined 28 targets on Philip Rivers' 63 pass attempts. They're both a handful to cover vertically and capable of turning a short catch into an explosive gain with their sub 4.4-speed. Oh and the Saints secondary happens to feature two starting undrafted rookie corners. Good luck with that, NOLA.

Michael Thomas, NO at SD

Willie Snead's toe injury opened the door for Thomas to become a huge part of the offense last week (11 targets) and he took full advantage (7-71-1 statline), showcasing a combo of strong hands and physicality after the catch that resembled what Drew Brees' old best friend Marques Colston used to do so well for the Saints. Even if Snead returns this week, expect more of the same. Jason Verrett is an excellent cover corner who can limit Brandin Cooks in a similar manner to what Atlanta's Desmond Trufant did, giving Thomas another chance to be Brees' buddy.

Adam Humphries, TB vs. DEN

With Vincent Jackson struggling to get open consistently, Humphries has developed into Jameis Winston's second-favorite target. That's a darn good thing to be in an offense pacing the league in pass attempts (47.3 per game). Humphries is tied for 11th in receptions and eighth among all wideouts in yards after the catch as a result, and with the strength of Denver's defense its outside corners and pass rushers, Humphries should continue to thrive in the middle of the field a week after posting his first career 100-yard game.

Tight End

Dennis Pitta, BAL vs. OAK

Pitta has 20 targets and 15 catches the last two weeks. In that time span the Raiders allowed three Falcons tight ends to blast them for 180 yards and Delanie Walker's back up to tally 59. If you can name even two of those four players, kudos to you.

Zach Miller, CHI vs. DET

The Lions have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in every game, and the five total they've given up to the position leads the league. They've also relinquished an average of 72 yards per game to tight ends. All these trends point to Zach Miller staying hot after he broke out last week with 78 yards and two scores as a favorite target of Brian Hoyer, who should remain the starter if Jay Cutler's eternal pouting (slash sprained thumb) keeps him sidelined another week.

Coby Fleener, NO at SD

With Snead out and a great matchup Fleener feasted for the first time in a Saints uniform (7/109/1 statline). He'll be licking his chops for seconds against a Chargers defense that's allowed at least 88 yards to tight ends in every game and just lost Manti Te'o (Achilles) for the season.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Eli Manning, NYG at MIN

The Vikings have faced Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton in consecutive weeks. They have allowed three combined touchdowns (two rushing, which last I checked, Manning doesn't do) and piled up 13 sacks and forced five turnovers from the last two NFL MVP's.

Jameis Winston, TB vs. DEN

The league leader in pass attempts has epitomized Jekyll-and-Hyde performances this year. In Weeks 1 and 3 he racked up 686 yards and seven touchdowns, while throwing just two interceptions. In Week 2, however, Mr. Hyde showed up in a four-interception debacle. The Denver defense makes a living out of turning top-flight QB's into the dreaded Mr. Hyde -- Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Andy Dalton have combined for just 597 passing yards against this menacing group.

Russell Wilson, SEA at NYJ

Allowing a league-high 71.3 percent completion rate and 9.7 yards per attempt, the Jets are far removed from their days as one of the league's stingiest pass defenses. Unfortunately for Wilson, even if he can suit up, hobbling around on a bum knee and ankle while evading one of the best defensive lines in football doesn't exactly seem like the best situation in which to take advantage of the generosity of Gang Green's secondary.

Andrew Luck, IND vs. JAC (in London)

Luck was bailed out by a great T.Y. Hilton catch-and-run that saved both Indy's victory and their quarterback's fantasy day in an uninspiring effort against a ho-hum San Diego defense. The Jaguars' rebuilt defense has yet to put together a complete game, but it is allowing the fifth fewest passing yards in the league. With Donte Moncrief (shoulder) sidelined and the long trip overseas, this might not be the week to bet on the short-handed Colts offense.

Running Back

Christine Michael, SEA at NYJ

Michael blasted the 49ers last week as he took the reins of the Seattle backfield with Rawls (leg) out. Against a Jets defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, he likely won't be doing anything resembling an encore. The Jets are beastly up front without stacking the box. Imagine when stopping Michael is the primary gameplan with Wilson (knee/ankle) badly banged up.

Latavius Murray, OAK at BAL

Aside from an 85-yard scoring scamper the Ravens allowed to Isaiah Crowell, they've held running backs to 2.6 yards on 56 rush attempts. That means Murray, who's scored in every game but has yet to receive more than 15 touches in a single contest, is about to find some tough sledding.

Todd Gurley, LA at AZ

Said it last week and it stands. Gurley will be a downgrade until the Rams' offense can keep defenses honest. A competitive game allowed Gurley to get plenty of volume last week and find the end zone twice, but this is a bad Rams team that will face more negative game flow than positive all season. That should include a trip to Arizona and a very talented team that has a lot to prove after last week's meltdown. Gurley is still averaging a paltry 2.9 YPC, so he remains at best a high-risk/high-reward guy.

Wide Receiver

Brandon Marshall, NYJ vs. SEA

This is equal parts Richard Sherman and Co. and things are just not right with Gang Green. A knee tweak in Week 2 has Marshall a bit hobbled and Ryan Fitzpatrick is far from sharp after his prolonged offseason holdout. With so many young receivers playing well, this is a "you-can-do-better" kind of call.

Mike Evans, TB vs. DEN

Evans has scored in all three games as he's been a target magnet early this season (39, good for second in the league). Unfortunately for him, the Broncos' duo of Aqib Talib and Chris Harris shut down virtually everyone it faces. The hope for Evans is that he can mirror what fellow mammoth receiver Kelvin Benjamin did in Week 1 against this duo (6-91-1 statline), but the downside is no joke. Talib and Harris are the primary reason why Denver has held wideouts to merely eight touchdown catches in its last 19 regular-season games.

Odell Beckham, NYG at MIN

Jordy Nelson managed to go 5-73-1 versus this loaded Vikings defense, but he didn't have the likes of Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz stealing targets from him. That duo has piled up 27 catches, 428 yards and three touchdowns and been a major contributing factor to Beckham sitting here in Week 4 with a single 100-yard effort and no TDs. Minnesota will see to it the Beckham helmet-swinging frustration lasts another week.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski, NE vs. BUF

Gronk's back!!! Well, sort of. The way New England is steamrolling opponents in every facet, he was back but not needed in Week 3, logging just 14 snaps as a trial run of his sore hamstring. Although it's tempting to put the touchdown monster back in your lineup, it's not advisable. He'll still likely be catching passes from a rookie who only attempted 19 in last week's win, one who is dealing with a sprained thumb on his throwing hand, mind you, and facing a Bills D that's given up all of 59 yards to tight ends in three games. Ouch.

Delanie Walker, TEN at HOU

A hamstring injury forced Walker to miss last week's loss to Oakland and his absence was seriously felt by an aerial attack that failed to find the end zone against what entered as the league's worst pass defense. He could be back this Sunday, but it's best to play the wait-and-see game before rolling him out, especially facing a Texans D that held Travis Kelce to 34 yards in Week 2 ("Baby Gronk" piled up 163 and a score in his other two games, for the record).