This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last week was a mixed bag of results with us missing two prop bets by a total over seven yards but hitting both Jalen Guyton (+200) and Joshua Palmer (+290) touchdown odds. Let's get back at it and look who to take this week.
GAMES
New Orleans Saints 
+11.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Bucs narrowly defeated the Bills and could be in for a letdown game, even at home. I'd expect the Saints defense to show up and no one has completely shut down Taysom Hill as a runner since he became the starter. The Saints have already beaten Tampa this season and this spread seems too big for a divisional game.
Buffalo Bills 
-12 vs. Carolina Panthers - Weather will likely play a factor in this game and that advantage should go to Buffalo. I'm not sure how Carolina is going to move the football; the Bills rotate their defensive line meaning Cam Newton should have a tough time running and Buffalo has been good (outside of the Jonathan Taylor game) against the rush. Buffalo either tends to blow teams out or lose and it's hard to see the latter happening this week.
Detroit Lions 
+12 vs. Arizona Cardinals - While the Lions are one of the worst teams in the league, they aren't as bad looking their record suggests. They could have easily beaten the Vikings, Ravens, Steelers, Browns and Bears, and other than Cleveland (three points), every one of those games was decided by two points or less. The Cardinals will be without DeAndre Hopkins, James Conner (ankle) is banged up and Kyler Murray has four interceptions and four fumbles in his last three games. I'd sprinkle something on the Lions money line as well (+460).
PLAYER PROPS
James Robinson OVER 82.5 Rushing Yards - The consensus is that Jaguars will show up this week now that Urban Meyer has been dismissed and it seems like that's a strong possibility. This is a good home matchup against a Texans' team that ranks last against the rush. Carlos Hyde has already been ruled out, leaving Robinson as many touches as he can handle. The Jaguars could hold a rare lead in the second half and use Robinson to run down the clock.
Dalton Schultz OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards - Shultz is coming off a dismal 1-4 line in the receiving categories but should be able to bounce back against the Giants. Shultz his this over in his previous three games before last week and the Giants are league average at defending the position. Blake Jarwin remains on IR and the receivers on the outside should open up the middle for Schultz.
Davis Mills OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-155) - Mills had an incredible game last week and has to have a boost in confidence after being named the starter for the rest of the season. All of that being said, he's on the road this week and there will be some bumps in the road the rest of the season. The Jaguars have had trouble with the interceptions but this pick is about fading Mills
PLAYER TOUCHDOWNS
Jeff Wilson (-125) - Elijah Mitchell will miss another game, giving Wilson the perfect opportunity to score his first touchdown of the season. The 49ers are big favorites at home against the Falcons who are 23rd against the run this season. I also like adding a smaller wager on Wilson +450 to score two or more touchdowns.
Ezekiel Elliott (-145) - Tony Pollard will likely be a game-time call but even if he's out there he likely will play fewer snaps and get fewer touches. Elliott has had 13 touches in every game this season and the Vegas line suggests the Cowboys should have any trouble scoring. I normally don't like laying these odds but Zeke does have nine scores on the season.
Rondale Moore (+175) - No DeAndre Hopkins this week means there should be more work for Moore than his usual snaps. Out of the three top Cardinals' wide receivers, Moore has the best odds with A.J. Green (+160) and Christian Kirk (+130). If you don't agree with my Lions +12 call, I can see taking all three and hoping two of them score and it's not a tough loss if only one of them does.
