This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Week 2 Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs; Odds, Picks, and Predictions
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One of the more intriguing AFC rivalries of recent seasons returns this afternoon with another installment Sunday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Bengals' QB Joe Burrow has enjoyed some rare success for a visiting quarterback here.
Unfortunately for Bengals backers, the circumstances going into this fifth-ever matchup between Burrow and Patrick Mahomes certainly favor the defending champion Chiefs on paper, for a couple of reasons that we will explore further.
Without further ado, let's examine top bets and a game prediction for Sunday's Bengals-Chiefs showdown.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds for Week 2
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Bengals +220 (DraftKings)/ Chiefs -240 (Caesars)
- Point spread: Bengals +6 (DraftKings)/ Chiefs -5.5 (FanDuel )
- Totals: Over 47.5 points (FanDuel)/ Under 48.0 points (BetMGM)
As Week 1 dawned, the Chiefs sat as a relatively modest-by-their-standards 3.5-to-4.0-point home favorites. The oddsmakers perhaps hedged their bets on KC opening the regular season in sluggish fashion again as they did in 2023. Moreover, a seemingly healthy Joe Burrow played into the equation, as well as the fact that Ja'Marr Chase appeared increasingly likely to end his "hold-in" and play in the opener as the practice week unfolded.
Fast forward to Sunday night, and matters began to shift in notable fashion. The Chiefs had already looked impressive in an Opening Night TNF win over the Ravens, and the Bengals then saw Tee Higgins suffer a hamstring injury that ultimately cost him Week 1. Cincinnati turned in an absolute dud versus the Patriots as they suffered a 16-10 home loss, and the line unsurprisingly moved in the Chiefs' direction. It was at 6.0 points by Monday afternoon, and it has spent most of its time since then bouncing between that number and 5.5.
The Bengals list Higgins "doubtful" for Week 2 as well, but interestingly, the projected total has actually risen. The number opened at 47 points at the beginning of the week, but since Tuesday has priced at either 47.5 or 48 at most major sportsbooks. A well-rested KC squad carrying an implied team total of between 27 and 27.5 points accounts for a good chunk of that number, however, while the Bengals are expected to score around 21 points.
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Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs Opponent Betting Picks This Week
The Bengals are accustomed to playing as underdogs at Arrowhead, but they enter a bit less equipped for battle than usual due to Higgins' expected absence. On the plus side, Cincinnati should have an exponentially more prepared Chase. The star wideout got in 40 snaps against the Pats and then practiced in full all week. But as Week 1 demonstrated, defenses naturally can focus a lot more on the 2021 first-round pick without Higgins in the lineup.
Burrow is 3-1 against Mahomes in head-to-head matchups, including 2-0 in the regular season. Even that one defeat, the AFC Championship Game following the 2022 season, came by only three points. Burrow still found his way to 270 passing yards and another 30 on the ground in that contest, but he was also picked off twice and sacked five times. When the two teams met last season in a Week 17 New Year's Eve clash, the 2020 first overall pick had long since gone on injured reserve with a wrist injury. The 25-17 win for KC eliminated the Bengals from the postseason. Cincinnati should be even more competitive in this matchup, but the potential inability to run a truly balanced attack is what I feel will be their undoing.
Zack Moss played okay in his first game replacing the departed Joe Mixon, rushing nine times for 44 yards and a touchdown and adding a pair of receptions versus New England. He will presumably get a bit more of an opportunity to find a rhythm in this game as the Bengals potentially try to hide the top-heavy nature of their passing game sans Higgins plus try to keep the ball out of Mahomes' hands. The Chiefs did give up 185 total rushing yards to the Ravens in Week 1, but Lamar Jackson accounted for 122 of them.
The Chiefs can focus on Cincinnati's much more traditional running game, especially without having to worry about Higgins. When Burrow does drop back, he will almost certainly find at least two defenders following Chase around on the overwhelming majority of plays. Reserve pass catchers Andrei Iosivas, Trenton Irwin and Mike Gesicki are certainly not devoid of talent, but a healthy and rested KC secondary should not have too much trouble erasing them to a large degree.
Meanwhile, Mahomes already demonstrated some very productive chemistry with lightning-quick rookie Xavier Worthy in Week 1, and the duo has had extended practice time since that game. Hollywood Brown will miss the season, but a top three of Rashee Rice, Worthy and Travis Kelce provides more than enough weaponry for Mahomes to attack a Bengals secondary that went completely untested against the Patriots. Finally, consider the matchup for the relentless Isiah Pacheco, who faces a Cincy front gashed by New England's Rhamondre Stevenson for 120 yards a TD to start the campaign.
Bengals @ Chiefs Best Bet: Same-Game Parlay: Chiefs -3.5 Alt. Spread and Isiah Pacheco 60+ rushing yards (+121 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Bengals @ Chiefs Opponent Prediction
Chiefs 26, Bengals 20
The combination of Burrow's innate confidence in this setting and the sense of urgency the Bengals will have – not to mention the benefits that come with Chase having another week of practice in – will play a role here and should help keep the game close. However, Mahomes is undoubtedly a bit tired of hearing about Burrow's winning mark against him, and the Chiefs are likely chafed by the entire "Burrowhead" narrative in the air the last few seasons. Therefore, I see the healthier squad prevailing here, albeit in a hard-fought battle.
