Matchup Edge: Breakout Spot for Zeke

Miami vs. Jets

Open: 38.5 O/U, MIA -3.5
Press time: 38 O/U, MIA -3

This game looks gross. We have a Miami offense that seemingly can't do anything against anyone, and an at least flickering Jets offense that goes against a Miami defense that's done relatively well of late, notably shutting down the Falcons in Atlanta last week. The Dolphins are allowing just 3.5 yards per carry and 7.3 yards per pass.

Josh McCown might need to carry the Jets offense. The Dolphins have limited big plays, allowing just 11 pass plays of 20 yards or more (tied for third best), but a first down percentage of 38.8 (seventh worst). If the Dolphins continue to limit downfield big plays, that would seem to leave a rough projection for sideline sparkplug Robby Anderson while improving the projections for Jermaine Kearse, Jeremy Kerley, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Despite their solid pass defense stats, though, the Dolphins are allowing 9.2 YPT to receivers so far.

Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay

Open: 44 O/U, BUF -3
Press time: 45 O/U, BUF -3

Tyrod Taylor has a promising matchup against a Tampa Bay defense allowing 8.2 YPA and a completion percentage of 70.9. It would of course help if Jordan Matthews (thumb) made his return in this game, but the Buccaneers pass defense has been so bad that even the likes of Zay Jones, Brandon Tate, and Kaelin Clay might be able to do enough to get Taylor to a useful box score. Tight end Nick O'Leary is a leading candidate to contribute after turning six targets into five catches for 59 yards against Cincinnati before the bye.

LeSean McCoy might not have the greatest run defense matchup against a Buccaneers defense breaking back in Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander, but he's still one of the league's best runners and is capable of making a big impact as a pass catcher, too. I just might expect something more like 80 yards rushing, 40 yards receiving, and a touchdown or two, rather than a rampage specifically as a runner. Even after their shorthanded defense got pummeled by Adrian Peterson last week, Tampa is allowing just 3.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs.

Jameis Winston (shoulder) is playing, but I don't like him much since I don't think he's played well at all this year. His gunslinger approach, on the other hand, is a good one to have against Buffalo. Their corners aren't big enough to box out Mike Evans, and they aren't athletic enough to run with DeSean Jackson. The way to beat them is to go deep. Perhaps they can get something going with Cameron Brate against a defense that has allowed just 248 yards to tight ends this year, though on just 33 targets (7.5 YPT).

While the Buffalo run defense is a tough matchup for Doug Martin, the 3.8 yards per carry the Bills have allowed so far to opposing runners isn't a prohibitively bad figure, especially since Buffalo probably won't be able to establish a big enough lead for Tampa Bay to rationalize abandoning the run. He should safely reside in the RB2 category for season-long formats, even if he's not the most enticing DFS play.

Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville

Open: 44.5 O/U, JAC -3
Press time: 43.5 O/U, JAC-3

The Jacksonville run defense has been bad this year, allowing 5.4 yards to opposing running backs, but this is a case where I wonder if the opposing passing game is so meek that the Jaguars can contain the run by completely selling out against it. Then again, with Frank Gore as Indianapolis' most active runner, maybe Jacksonville's run defense is less threatened than usual.

Marlon Mack is almost certainly the more effective pure runner at this point, but there are real concerns about the diversity of his skill set, and I think his pure running talent might be a bit overestimated by some. This situation kind of reminds me of Christine Michael in Seattle, but Michael was a much better prospect.

As much as I love T.Y. Hilton, even I can't approach him outside of tournaments in DFS as Jacoby Brissett tries to throw on Jacksonville's ruthless cornerback tandem. The Jaguars are allowing just 5.8 yards per target to opposing receivers, and have allowed them only one receiving touchdown this year. Hilton should get open at least a few times, though.

If Leonard Fournette (ankle) is out for this game, then Chris Ivory gets a major boost. I think he has RB2 utility in season-long formats in such an event, as well as a good amount of DFS utility, though perhaps with considerable chalk risk at his generally low price. While the Colts run defense has allowed just 4.1 yards per carry to running backs this year, they've also allowed 8.3 yards per target to them.

Minnesota vs. Baltimore

Open: 39.5 O/U, MIN -4.5
Press time: 38.5 O/U, MIN -5.5

It's hard to like Case Keenum too much against a Baltimore pass defense allowing just 6.8 YPA and eight touchdowns versus nine interceptions, especially with Stefon Diggs (groin) out for a second week in a row. There's also concern for Jerick McKinnon in the fact that the Ravens defensive tackle Brandon Williams (foot), arguably their best defender, expected to return from a four-game absence.

Still, McKinnon should have the benefit of short fields with Joe Flacco quarterbacking the other side. Flacco is averaging 5.4 yards per pass and somehow has four touchdowns on 185 attempts. Now he gets a Vikings defense allowing 6.7 yards per pass along with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. Between short fields and his own skill shining through, I think you still consider McKinnon one of the better running back options in season-long formats and a totally viable DFS tournament consideration.

As far as pass catchers go the best bet might be Kyle Rudolph, who faces a Baltimore defense allowing 9.5 yards per target to opposing tight ends, as well as six touchdowns on 23 receptions. If you think Minnesota sees short fields, then you almost have to love Rudolph in this one. Otherwise, Jeremy Maclin might have some utility out of the slot, where there's no Xavier Rhodes. Adam Thielen is against a Ravens defense allowing just 6.3 yards per target to receivers, but his usage is very reliable and his career average of 9.9 YPT makes him the kind of player you still start against most tough defenses.

In a game where fortune in general might be against them, I don't like Javorius Allen or Alex Collins against a defense that's allowed just 429 yards and one touchdown to opposing running backs on 131 carries (3.3 YPC).

Rams and Arizona in London

Open: 47.5 O/U, LAR -2.5
Press time: 45 O/U, LAR -3

Disclaimer: weird things (Blake Bortles) happen in London games and I'm not sure how to account for that.

Otherwise the big question in this game for me: is Sammy Watkins overlooked enough for Arizona to put Patrick Peterson on Robert Woods? Not that I think Peterson can cover Watkins – I'm skeptical there's a single corner that can – but I doubt Jared Goff would so much as glance Watkins' way if Peterson is over there. He already completely ignores him against much worse corners. But! Surely even Goff and Sean McVay realize the way they've used Watkins so far makes zero sense. Not just in terms of skill utilization, but especially the acquisition cost. If you wanted Ted Ginn you could have just signed him in free agency.

So because I'm an optimist and wouldn't want to insult the intelligence of McVay or Goff, I'm going to assume they'll seek to get Watkins more involved going forward. If Peterson is on Woods at all, that lines Watkins up for a torchfest against whoever else they put on him – hopefully Justin Bethel. I'm still guessing the Cardinals put Peterson on Watkins, though, and if they do that leaves Woods with a fine projection. Woods has been legitimately good this year, turning 37 targets into 322 yards. That's with having a touchdown catch narrowly overturned on review at one point. The Cardinals run defense not only dictates a passing funnel, but the contrasting presences of Peterson and the other corners dictate a pass funnel specifically away from Peterson. Whether it's Watkins or Woods, it's hard to see Bethel posing much of an obstacle. I would guess Cooper Kupp is a good bet to see at least six targets in this one, and you have to like his chances more than whoever is on Peterson.

Because of that previously mentioned pass funnel, I think Goff has a good chance to hit 35 or more pass attempts in this one. If one of Watkins or Woods is beating on Bethel for eight of those targets, Goff could escape with a decent box score. The Peterson funnel could move a few of those targets to Tyler Higbee, who disappointed last week but put up 145 receiving yards over the two prior games and remains a promising prospect.

I find the matchup a bit concerning for Todd Gurley. Arizona is allowing just 3.2 yards per carry to running backs, and at this point I've settled in to the opinion that Gurley needs clear openings to produce reliably as a runner. He's often offset that deficiency with receiving production this year, but that too might be a dead end against the Cardinals. They've allowed just five yards per target to running backs. You're starting Gurley in season-long formats, but I see this game capped around 80 yards from scrimmage, and the touchdown odds seem a bit worse than usual, too.

The matchup is far preferable for Adrian Peterson as long as the Cardinals don't fall behind. If Arizona stays competitive, then Peterson should get usage. That would be usage against a Rams defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry to running backs, and 122 yards per game. That Andre Ellington (quadriceps) looks borderline doubtful might even open up a few targets for Peterson in the passing game.

If Peterson has a strong game, it might stall a Rams pass rush that otherwise could prove dangerous to Carson Palmer, who reliably melts under pressure. I would try to limit Palmer's volume if I were the Cardinals, and I don't think he'd hold up particularly well if the volume otherwise gets high. I therefore don't like Palmer this week, and it doesn't help that the Rams are allowing 7.2 yards per pass, surrendering eight touchdowns in six games compared to six interceptions. For a quarterback who scares easy, Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn present a particularly frightening sight. To be clear, the scenario where I see Arizona falling far behind is one where Palmer gives away the game early. I guess I put about a four out of ten chance of that happening.

Green Bay vs. New Orleans

Open: 47.5 O/U, NO -4.5
Press time: 47.5 O/U, NO -4

There might be some rain and wind in this game, so it might be worth a second glance on Sunday.

I like Brett Hundley as a prospect, but there's no doubt he's the boom-or-bust type. The boom is in the event that he develops some pocket presence and defense-reading skills that he generally lacked to a problematic extent in college, because the size, arm strength, accuracy, and athleticism are all of high grades. With a week of first-team reps, I'm holding out hope that he can show well in his starting debut.

I'm not taking it for a given, though, and I consider the Saints a tougher test than some might guess. Marshon Lattimore is capable of removing one receiver from the game, and I'd guess they put him on Nelson. Whoever isn't on Lattimore should be getting open at least a little, though, and I think Hundley has more than enough accuracy to hit them in stride, even through tight windows, as long as the pass rush isn't sneaking up on him. I don't know what to make of Martellus Bennett's prospects – I could just as easily see Green Bay keeping him to block more as I can see them designing quick passes for Bennett to get Hundley into a rhythm.

At running back, I'd expect the Ty Montgomery/Aaron Jones split we saw last week to endure indefinitely. Which is to say, I think we'll see two good players have their production undermined by the other.

The Packers defense is without safety Morgan Burnett, and corners Damarious Randall and Davon House are both questionable. What was anyway a good-looking matchup for Drew Brees looks better in light of those injuries, and Michael Thomas at least carries a high-floor, high-ceiling projection despite New Orleans' tendency to spread the ball around. I bet Willie Snead gets hot just about as soon as Sean Payton gives him playing time, but I don't know how to anticipate whether that will happen.

Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara both look like very nice plays to me this week, with the former perhaps one of the best plays at the position. They should have been productive enough anyway against a middling Green Bay defense with some injury issues, but I think that for whatever highs he has, Brett Hundley is likely to have parallel lows, potentially in the form of turnovers on short fields.

Chicago vs. Carolina

Open: 41 O/U, CAR -3
Press time: 40.5 O/U, CAR -3

In a game with two good defenses and questionable offenses, and maybe even a bit of rain, I'm not expecting much scoring. As tempting as it might be to reduce the relevant variables to Cam Newton vs. Mitchell Trubisky, I think the Bears are better enough in the running game with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen that the gap between the quarterbacks is offset somewhat. Speaking of Howard and Cohen, the two might combine for 40 carries if Newton and the Panthers offense struggle and allow the Bears to accumulate time of possession.

If Newton doesn't struggle, then Devin Funchess and Ed Dickson might both be good bets for production. Kelvin Benjamin (knee) was listed as a full practice participant Friday, but he didn't practice the two prior days, and he's listed as questionable for Sunday. I'm not sure what to expect there – he should have a decent enough projection if you consider him healthy, but you usually don't miss Wednesday and Thursday practices if you're not hobbled to some extent.

I'm not optimistic about the rushing prospects for Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey, but the latter is probably a good bet for attempted receiving usage at least. With 37 receptions on 50 targets in six games, McCaffrey is on pace to be among the league's reception leaders. That pace will probably slow at least a bit, but maybe not too much against a Bears defense that allowed opposing running backs to catch 28 of 33 targets.

Cleveland vs. Tennessee

Open: 46.5 O/U, TEN -6.5
Press time: 45.5 O/U, TEN -5.5

The Tennessee pass defense has allowed 13 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions, but they've also held quarterbacks to a YPA of just 6.8. There's perhaps some tournament logic to using DeShone Kizer in DFS, especially since the Titans also have allowed 104 yards and a touchdown to quarterbacks on 22 carries, but Kizer was playing at an awfully low level prior to his benching.

If Kizer can scrape together a decent box score as a passer, then one of Kenny Britt (groin/knee) or Ricardo Louis should be able to as well. Britt saw 18 targets in the two games prior to his injury, and Louis has seen 24 in the last three. The Titans have allowed nine touchdowns on 75 receptions to wideouts so far. Given that he plays plenty of wide receiver and plays against a Titans defense allowing 7.3 YPT to running backs otherwise, Duke Johnson would be a fine candidate to produce regardless of how Kizer plays. In Kizer's starts, Johnson averaged over six targets per game.

It's easier to be optimistic about Marcus Mariota, who carries some injury concern after playing through a hamstring issue on Monday, but catches a Browns defense allowing 7.9 YPA at a completion percentage of 71.6. With top cornerback Jason McCourty (ankle) questionable, an already favorable matchup looks even better for Mariota.

You would think McCourty, Cleveland's primary shadow corner, would follow Rishard Matthews if active. If legitimately hobbled, McCourty might not be much of a matchup for Matthews anyway. Eric Decker should get open either way in the slot, and with 15 targets in the last two weeks I generally consider him one of the week's better wideout projections. Even Taywan Taylor is a big-field GPP option for me -- I'm a big believer in his talent, and he's reliably played around 28 snaps per game the last month.

Delanie Walker (calf) didn't practice all week and is questionable for this game. If he sits, I'll be irrationally high on rookie third-round pick Jonnu Smith. I consider Smith one of the top tight end talents in the game, and he has nine catches for 85 yards and two touchdowns already this year. The Browns, meanwhile, have allowed 43 catches for 418 yards and five touchdowns to tight ends on 57 targets, making them the second-most favorable opponent for tight ends to this point.

DeMarco Murray (hamstring) might be able to play after logging a limited practice Friday. Derrick Henry would be an interesting breakout speculation if Murray were to sit, but if active the Titans might show excessive deference to the veteran back, depriving Henry of usage. The Browns defense is capable against the run, anyway, allowing just 433 yards and two touchdowns on 140 carries (3.1 YPC).

San Francisco vs. Dallas

Open: 47 O/U, DAL -4
Press time: 48.5 O/U, DAL -6

C.J. Beathard has a strong arm and decent mobility, but I still can't convince myself he projects to be anything more than a backup in the NFL. Playing at home helps, though, and the Dallas defense has allowed 11 passing touchdowns compared to just two interceptions. Pierre Garcon should be a high-floor play with double-digit targets in four of six weeks, but I worry about his upside between Beathard's presence and Dallas' 6.5 YPT allowed to opposing receivers.

If I look to the San Francisco offense this week, it would probably be in pursuit of Carlos Hyde. He's off the injury report at this point, and he gets a home matchup against a defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry to opposing running backs. They're also allowing 7.4 yards per target to running backs, and Hyde is averaging nearly five targets per game.

Even against a San Francisco defense that's played relatively well against the run, holding opposing running backs to 3.6 yards per carry, Ezekiel Elliott is arguably the top running back play on the slate. That's in part because defensive end Arik Armstead (hand) is out for the year, but mostly because the 49ers have allowed 43 catches for 440 yards and three touchdowns on 58 targets (7.6 YPT) to opposing backs. With an average of over four targets per game, I like Elliott's chances of putting up big numbers from scrimmage.

Dak Prescott should have a high floor against a 49ers defense allowing roughly 36 pass attempts and five carries per game to opposing quarterbacks, and his ceiling could be high especially if San Francisco contains Elliott. Against a 49ers defense allowing 8.4 yards per target to opposing wideouts, you have to consider Dez Bryant a high-floor, high-ceiling play, too. Jason Witten doesn't have a seemingly great matchup with the 49ers allowing 6.3 YPT to tight ends, but he tends to go as Dak does.

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati

Open: 41 O/U, PIT -4
Press time: 40.5 O/U, PIT -5.5

I think this might be one of those games where Andy Dalton throws for about 180 yards, with A.J. Green securing around 100 of them. Dalton has a career average of just 6.3 yards per pass against Pittsburgh, and the Steelers are allowing just 5.7 yards per pass this year. Green has 975 yards and six touchdown in his 11 games against the Steelers, though, and with 33 targets in his last three games, I'd imagine he finds a way to produce even if Dalton stumbles.

Joe Mixon theoretically has a good matchup against a Steelers defense allowing 5.0 yards per carry to running backs, but something about it still stinks to me. Part of it is how much better Pittsburgh played against Kareem Hunt last week, and part of it is that I just don't trust Dalton to keep Cincinnati competitive enough to assure more than 12 carries or so for Mixon. I also don't expect the Steelers defense to respect the pass all that much.

Le'Veon Bell has 631 yards and four touchdowns from scrimmage in five career games against Cincinnati, but he might project for one of his better days if you buy the premise that Cincinnati is the clear underdog. Perhaps the sledding will be tough against a defense allowing 3.5 yards per carry and 3.8 yards per target to running backs, but big volume and short fields could put him in scoring position.

Antonio Brown also gets a tough draw against a pass defense allowing just 6.5 yards per target to receivers, and it's worth noting that Brown totaled just seven catches for 97 yards and no touchdowns in two games against Cincinnati last year. I don't really want to bet on Brown having three bad games in a row against any team in particular, but I also probably won't be picking him in DFS this week, sound of a play as he might be.

Chargers vs. Denver

Open: 42.5 O/U, DEN -2.5
Press time: 40.5 O/U, PK

The Broncos are without Emmanuel Sanders (ankle), but Demaryius Thomas (calf) will be able to start after practicing Thursday and Friday. Although the Chargers are allowing just 7.1 yards per target to opposing receivers this year, the fact that Thomas is much better than most addresses some of that concern. That Sanders' absence should push Thomas' target count over double digits does a lot to address the concern that he's still catching passes from Trevor Siemian.

If Thomas doesn't get good volume in this game, I would guess it's because the Denver running game went nuts. That could happen, I guess. I expect C.J. Anderson to bounce back after last week's major disappointment where he totaled just 17 yards on nine carries against the Giants last week. He averaged more than four yards per carry in each of the first four weeks, and received 20 or more carries in three of those. The Chargers, meanwhile, have allowed a league-worst 809 yards rushing to opposing running backs, and at 5.2 yards per carry. Jamaal Charles might offer some sneaky flex utility in season-long formats if Denver accumulates enough time of possession.

As someone fairly skeptical of Philip Rivers at this point, I don't like his chances of doing well against a Broncos defense allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt, especially with Keenan Allen (shoulder) questionable after missing Friday's practice after perhaps suffering the injury Thursday, when he showed up as a limited participant. Even if Allen is out, I'm not optimistic about the chances of the remaining Chargers wideouts doing much. With the Broncos allowing 7.9 yards per target to tight ends, though, Hunter Henry should be in position to produce, especially if the receivers aren't getting open at all.

Melvin Gordon is matchup-proof in season-long formats since he's so active as a pass catcher, but I can't sell myself on him in DFS this week. I think the Broncos run defense bounces back in this one after inexplicably getting wrecked by Orleans Darkwa last week, and I think Rivers might struggle enough to limit Gordon's volume to something like 16 touches from scrimmage.

Giants vs. Seattle

Open: 38.5 O/U, SEA -7.5
Press time: 40 O/U, SEA -4

Seattle's run defense ranks poorly this year, but it's a rather meager sample size inflated by a handful of carries by DeMarco Murray and Carlos Hyde. Not that I would have expected him to go over 40 yards against the Broncos, but I don't see Orleans Darkwa or Wayne Gallman as even vague threats to the Seahawks defense.

Of course, the Giants running game is probably a bigger threat than its passing game, even if Sterling Shepard (ankle) is back. He and Roger Lewis do not project to be open much at all, even if Eli Manning was on one of his better days. Evan Engram is the best bet to get anything going as a pass catcher, and I actually like his chances somewhat against a Seattle defense that shuts down outside throwing opportunities. It might take 12 targets, but Engram should be able to put some sort of offering together, especially in PPR.

I think the shared ineffectiveness of Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls coupled with the emergence of J.D. McKissic as a viable passing formation back makes it rational for Seattle to give C.J. Prosise a shot alongside Rawls and Lacy in the team's more traditional running back tasks, but I have no evidence to suggest that will happen anytime soon. Unless it does, I don't care about this backfield.

There should be some opportunities for Russell Wilson to produce in this one, perhaps partially as a runner. Corners Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie figure to shut down Paul Richardson and Doug Baldwin, respectively, which would funnel pass targets to Jimmy Graham against a Giants defense that might be the worst in the league at defending tight ends. I would leave open the possibility of Tyler Lockett doing something on plays where he isn't covered by Jenkins.

New England vs. Atlanta

Open: 53.5 O/U, NE -3.5
Press time: 56.5 O/U, NE -3

Steve Sarkisian is a failure as an NFL offensive coordinator, but luckily for him, it appears that Bill Belichick lacks the defensive personnel to execute his well-known longtime practice of selling out a defensive game plan to remove one specific pass catcher from a game. Given that, Sarkisian should be able to stumble into successfully overfeeding Julio Jones in this game, so long as he has the basic sense to try as much. Given the precariousness of Atlanta's current state, I would imagine that order will come from the top even if Sarkisian can't grasp it on his own.

Matt Ryan similarly seems poised for some certain level of success, and secondary targets like Taylor Gabriel and Austin Hooper should get open with relative ease, too. The main threat to Ryan's box score might actually be his own running game – Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman should run wild relative to whatever usage they receive. They're two of the league's best backs, and the Patriots are allowing 4.7 YPC/8.3 YPT to running backs so far.

For the Patriots, you have to like Tom Brady a great deal, especially if you find the Dion Lewis/Mike Gillislee combo unconvincing. I generally do, and the former's activity as a pass catcher and elevating usage as a runner makes him the preferred option for me. Although, James White's Super Bowl effort gives you plenty of reason to consider him the top fantasy option in the New England backfield.

While the Falcons have been tough against tight end this years, a shootout setting of any sort is a setting where Rob Gronkowski can post huge numbers. I think that's particularly true here, where the Patriots face a secondary with small, quick corners to match up with Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola. Gronkowski and Chris Hogan have unique size advantage here, and they might have a near monopoly on red-zone targets.

Philadelphia vs. Washington

Open: 48.5 O/U, PHI -4
Press time: 49 O/U, PHI -4.5

If Terrelle Pryor or Josh Doctson fail to have a big game – think 100 to 120 yards at 8.5 yards per target or more – I think Washington gets throttled in this one. Jordan Reed (toe) might need to head to the shelf, and Chris Thompson can't average over 13 yards per target forever. Jamison Crowder and Ryan Grant can't be expected to do more than move the chains, if that.

I see no way for Kirk Cousins to maintain his current level of production without a breakout from Pryor or/and Doctson. I expected as much from both prior to this year, but it's yet to happen, and I can't explain why it would happen here if it couldn't happen before. But look: Cousins has 1,334 yards at 8.4 YPA. That's with Thompson turning 26 targets into 340 yards (13.1 YPT). If Thompson's production to this point were identical to what it was the prior two years, when he averaged 5.4 YPT, Cousin's yardage total would drop to 1,134, lowering his YPA to 7.2.

That drop in YPT is going to happen, and it might start this week against an Eagles defense allowing 5.9 YPT to running backs. Thompson got to them in Week 1 for 52 yards and a touchdown on five targets, but he's not going to catch anyone by surprise this time. When that YPT to Thompson drops, Cousin's yardage will too, unless Pryor or Doctson offset the regression with an increase in their own production. With all this said, Thompson is the only Washington running back I'd bother with in a matchup I expect the Eagles to take care of with relative comfort.

Josh Norman (ribs) is likely out and Bashaud Breeland (knee) appears questionable at best. Impact rookie defensive lineman Jonathan Allen (foot) is also out. What was a tough matchup anyway for Washington looks especially challenging now.

It therefore looks like a favorable breakout spot for Alshon Jeffery, who hasn't yet appeared to be on the same page as Carson Wentz. The talent and the targets are both there, and the timing between the two should come soon enough. Why not against a crew of backup corners? With 48 targets in six games and a career YPT of 8.6 prior to this year, an explosion is almost certainly around the corner. Nelson Agholor is the second-best wideout on the team and an interesting case study in prospect emergence. His first two seasons were awful, but at 24 he's clearly hit another gear. His speed and quickness is unparalleled among slot wideouts, giving him big-play potential not normally seen at the position. With 10.7 yards per target and four touchdowns on 20 receptions, Philadelphia needs to keep feeding him.

Zach Ertz, of course, is an elite play in this matchup. The TE3 is borderline matchup-proof anyway, and in this one he gets a crack at a beat up secondary that has allowed 30 catches for 420 yards and two touchdowns on 43 targets to tight ends. Ertz yawned his way to eight catches for 93 yards on eight targets against Washington in the opener.

Particularly with Allen hurt, this game should be a decent spot for LeGarrette Blount so long as Washington doesn't establish an early lead. Wendell Smallwood (knee) figures to be limited even if he does return.