Beating the Book: Bills Steamroll Chargers, 49ers Top Ravens + Full NFL Week 16 ATS Picks

Welcome to the Week 16 edition of Beating the Book!

Christmas is nearly upon us, which means we're closing in on the end of the regular season. Just three more weeks stand between us and the start of the Playoffs. With that in mind, it's officially crunch time for us here at Beating the Book.

We're coming off of an underwhelming Week 15 in which we went 7-8-1 against the number. While we did hit another best bet to move to 11-4 on the year, we whiffed on some obvious-in-retrospect plays, including trusting the Falcons (I don't know what I was thinking) in Carolina and for some reason believing that the Jets could hang with Miami.

Alas, we're putting Week 15 in the rear-view and switching our focus to another unique slate that features a Thursday Night game, two Saturday games, a full Christmas Eve slate and three games on Christmas Day.

As of publication, three teams (Buffalo, Kansas City and Philadelphia) are favored by double-digits, while seven games feature a spread of 3.0 points or less. A good chunk of those projected close games carry significant postseason implications, beginning with Bengals-Steelers on Saturday. Browns-Texans, Lions-Vikings, Seahawks-Titans, Jags-Buccaneers and Cowboys-Dolphins all fit that criteria on the Sunday slate.

Fittingly, we'll conclude the week with one of the biggest matchups of the year, as the AFC-leading Ravens head out west to take on the NFC-leading 49ers as both teams look to maintain control of the 1-seed.

You can find my thoughts on that game, as well as the entire Week 15 slate, below. As is the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 7-8-1 ATS; 12-4 SU; best bet won (LAR -6.5)

On the season: 108-109-7 ATS, 142-82 SU; 11-4 best bet

Best calls of Week 15:

• Returning home after two road games should help, however, as should catching the Broncos on the third leg of a road swing. We're approaching this one with caution, but I like this as a spot for Detroit to come out aggressive against a Denver defense that ranks 27th in pressure rate.
• This feels like a team, and especially a defense, that's rapidly moving in the wrong direction. There's still time for Jacksonville to get back on track before the postseason, but I don't think this is the week.

Worst calls of Week 15:

• Without knowing Hill's status, this is a difficult game to handicap, but it's fair to assume the star wideout could at least be limited. With that in mind, we'll take the Jets to hang around and cover, provided Zach Wilson can avoid the killer mistakes.
• The Eagles still have the inside track to the NFC East crown, but they need to take care of business the rest of the way, so I don't view this as a letdown spot. It's easy to panic based on last week's performance, but even the best teams in the NFL have blemishes. I'm not backing off of the Eagles.

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Thursday Night Football

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-4.0)

Fun start to the week with a game that carries major playoff implications. The Rams are running hot and looking to solidify their place in the Wild Card hunt, while the Saints need to keep pace with the Buccaneers in the NFC South, with both teams sitting at 7-7 entering the week.

We made the Rams our best bet last week, and while it got a bit messy late, we did not anticipate Jacoby Brissett rising from the ashes to resurrect the Commanders' offense. Obviously, the Saints are a more formidable opponent than Washington, but New Orleans' offense is as flaky as it gets, and the Saints have mostly struggled to show up against average-to-good teams this season.

Having to make the cross-country trip on short rest is what ultimately pushes me in favor of the Rams, who've looked like the much better team over the last six weeks. With Kyren Williams rolling, Matthew Stafford limiting mistakes and Cooper Kupp healthy, we're backing Los Angeles to win and cover.

The pick: Rams 27 – Saints 21

Saturday Games

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.0)

Can Jake Browning lead the Bengals to a fourth consecutive victory? Well, he's favored to do so, despite Cincinnati heading out on the road to face… Mason Rudolph!

Reluctantly, Pittsburgh has made what felt like a necessary change after Mitch Trubisky once again failed to show any signs of life in an ugly loss to the Colts last week. After jumping out to a 13-0 lead, the Steelers were outscored 30-0 the rest of the way with Trubisky tossing two picks and finishing with just 169 passing yards.

It's hard to have much more faith in this Steelers team with Rudolph at the helm, but they will get the advantage of (likely) facing the Bengals without Ja'Marr Chase, who picked up a shoulder injury late in last week's OT win over Minnesota.

Even without Chase, I do give a slight edge to Cincinnati, but this feels like the last stand for Pittsburgh. If there was ever a time for a Mike Tomlin just finds a way to win, man type of game, this would be it.

The pick: Bengals 20 – Steelers 17

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers (+11.5)

Talk about two teams trending in opposite directions. "Trending" might even be putting it nicely for the Chargers. If there's a silver lining to the events that transpired last Thursday in Vegas – henceforth known as The Disaster in the Desert – it's that the Chargers were so thoroughly beaten down that it gave the organization full carte blanche to clean house. Long overdue, in this author's opinion.

Now, the question is whether or not the Chargers get any sort of post-Staley bounce. It's possible, but even if that happens, is it enough to hang with the rejuvenated Bills, who are coming off of their best win of the season? We'll have to wait and see on the status of Keenan Allen, but I'm not sure he moves the needle enough for me with Easton Stick at quarterback.

We're rolling with the Bills to cover and not thinking too hard about it.

The pick: Bills 31 – Chargers 10

Sunday Christmas Eve Early Games

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (-1.0)

I'm not convinced either of these teams are good, but at least the Colts are a fun team. The week-to-week variance level is off the charts, but as they demonstrated last week in Pittsburgh, they're more than capable of rallying back to rip off 30 unanswered points after a slow start.

On the other side, we have the team that has burned us far more than any other this season. I cannot figure out the Atlanta Falcons. I simply cannot. They once again managed to blow a winnable game last week in Carolina, thanks in large part to what may have been Desmond Ridder's magnum opus interception, which is saying a lot.

We've known for weeks that Ridder is not the guy, so the Falcons pivoting back to Taylor Heinicke makes sense. However, Heinicke didn't look much better during his three-game cameo earlier in the season, going 0-3 SU in games against Tennessee, Minnesota and Arizona.

Talent-wise, Atlanta has the horses to win this game at home, but as always, we can't trust this team to actually utilize that talent anywhere close to its full extent. I've fully accepted that we're walking into a predetermined trap no matter what, but I can't pick the Falcons in good faith right now. Not again.

The pick: Colts 21 – Falcons 18

Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (+5.0)

The Packers once-promising mid-season turnaround has hit a major roadblock over the last two weeks with a pair of ugly losses to Tommy DeVito and Baker Mayfield. Both quarterbacks diced up the Packers' defense in their own ways, but both had arguably the best games of their careers against the NFL's worst defensive coordinator for three years running.

Green Bay's offense hasn't been as crisp the last two weeks, but the defense has handed out chunk play after chunk play to a pair of offenses that aren't exactly known for piling up yards. When the dust settled at Lambeau Field on Sunday, Tampa Bay racked up 452 yards of total offense, including 353 yards through the air – by far the most the Packers have allowed this season.

A visit to Carolina could be what cures all ills for the Packers, as Bryce Young hasn't reached 200 yards since Week 5. Even as the Panthers sit at 2-12, the defense has been able to keep them in games with average-to-below-average teams like Green Bay.

I like the Packers to win this game, but it won't be comfortable – especially since Carolina should be able to run on the Green Bay defense. The Packers are also (still) dealing with a number of key injuries as of mid-week.

The pick: Packers 21 – Panthers 17

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (+2.5)

Massive, massive game in the AFC playoff picture. A win for the Browns would put them in a great spot to grab a Wild Card spot, while the Texans may need to win out to sneak in as a Wild Card or even overtake the Jags in the AFC South.

In each of their last two wins, the Browns have been able to survive Joe Flacco's mistakes, but he'll need to take better care of the ball against an improved Houston defense that sacked Will Levis seven times last week, even without Will Anderson.

Houston hopes to get Anderson and Nico Collins back, which would obviously provide a major boost. However, it's looking like C.J. Stroud will miss another week, which is a crushing blow. Case Keenum found a way to beat the Titans, but doing the same against the Browns will be a much tougher ask.

With the assumption that Stroud sits, we have to take the Browns, but I expect Houston to hang around at home.

The pick: Browns 23 – Texans 20

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)

We're 15 weeks in and these division rivals are yet to face off, so simple math dictates that this is the first of two matchups over the final three weeks.

After a concerning stretch of games out of their Week 9 bye, the Lions finally had a we might be back game last week against the Broncos, piling up 42 points and holding their opponent under 100 yards rushing for the first time since Week 10. More than anything, it was a reminder of how well-balanced this Detroit offense is when it's rolling, but this is still a team that tends to press and borderline-panic if things go awry.

I know this game is in Minneapolis, and the Vikings defense has played well, but I think Detroit could be favored by another point or two against a mistake-prone quarterback in Nick Mullens. Minnesota's ability to run on a shaky Detroit defense does concern me, but I like the Lions to buckle down and take care of business in a comfortable, indoor setting.

The pick: Lions 26 – Vikings 21

Washington Commanders at New York Jets (-3.0)

Not only is this the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week, but it's in the conversation for the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Year. For one, we're not sure who the Jets' quarterback will be. Zach Wilson is in concussion protocol. If he's cleared, Robert Saleh said Wilson will be the starter. If not, we're likely looking at a Trevor Siemian start. All due respect to Siemian, but he threw two of the most comical picks of the year last week. He's not an upgrade over Wilson.

On the other side, the wheels are falling off for Washington, which tumbled to a fifth straight defeat last week. Credit to the Commanders for rallying to two late touchdowns with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, but the defense allowed 400-plus yards for the fourth time in the last five weeks.

The expectation is that Washington will go back to Howell this week, but it's possible he could again be on a short leash.

This feels like one of those extremely stoppable force vs. extremely movable object type of games that I don't want to touch. I do give a slight lean toward Washington's ability to move the ball, but this could be the rare spot for the Jets to generate consistent offense of their own. Fittingly, let's split the difference and go with the Jets to win outright but Washington to cover.

*Deep, sad exhale*

The pick: Jets 20 – Commanders 19

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (+2.5)

With all of the injury question marks afoot, this is a difficult game to handicap mid-week. For one, we have no idea if Geno Smith will make his return for Seattle. And on the other side, the Titans may be turning back to Ryan Tannehill after Will Levis took a beating in last week's loss to Houston.

Levis has had some moments, but there's a good case to be made that a healthy Tannehill is a significantly better short-term option than the rookie out of Kentucky, so if Levis does, indeed, sit out, I don't view that as a downgrade. The Titans will need to get their running game off the ground, however, after Derrick Henry had perhaps the least-efficient game in NFL history.

What we do know is that Tennessee's offensive line is a disaster, and starting Tannehill won't fix that. Even if it's Drew Luck at QB, Seattle still has plenty of juice and picked up a huge, potentially season-saving win Monday night against Philly. With Seattle likely to be the healthier and more reliable team, we'll side with the Seahawks – regardless of quarterback – win and cover on the road.

The pick: Seahawks 27 – Titans 23

Sunday Christmas Eve Afternoon Games

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.0)

Three weeks ago, the 1-seed in the AFC was very much in play for Jacksonville. Fast forward to the present and the Jags have now lost three straight and have looked increasingly worse in doing so. Now, they could be without Trevor Lawrence, who landed in concussion protocol following Sunday night's beatdown at the hands of the Ravens.

This is setting up as a potential disaster spot – not only for the Jags, but for me, who will be forced to attend a Christmas Eve church service that begins 45 minutes after kickoff. The usual sorry, I have to work card apparently does not apply on holidays, so it's going to be a very dicey afternoon attempting to covertly hide my phone inside the hymnal book.

Anyway, it goes without saying that if Lawrence is sidelined, the Bucs will win this game. Hell, they might win it even if Lawrence plays. The Jags' defense continues to freefall, while the offense cannot run the ball and leads the NFL in self-inflicted wounds (per Whalen NextGen Stats).

Meanwhile, the Bucs' offense is steadily improving, and the emergence of a passable run game with Rachaad White has been one of the bigger fantasy surprises of the season. Entering the week, White improbably ranks as the RB4 on the year in PPR formats. Over his last nine games, he's racked up 15.9, 17.9, 27.9, 17.8, 17.8, 13, 19.6, 21.5 and 21.9 fantasy points, respectively.

On top of that, the Bucs are getting this game at home and should be able to exploit a slipping Jacksonville secondary and a Jags team that seems to allow mistakes to compound and struggles to finish off drives.

Without knowing Lawrence's status, we'll roll with the Bucs to win outright. Positive news on Lawrence might sway the pick, but I think this is a field-goal game one way or the other between two pretty evenly matched teams.

The pick: Buccaneers 24 – Jaguars 21

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (-4.0)

As far as meaningless late-season games go, this should be a sneaky-fun one. The complete opposite of Commanders-Jets. 

Despite sitting at 3-11, and coming off of a 16-point loss to the Niners, I'm still impressed with the Cardinals' level of friskiness. Sure, they gave up 45 points and 406 yards to San Francisco, but Arizona piled up 436 yards of their own – including 234 on the ground – on the NFL's premier team.

I'll be interested to see if that rushing success can continue against Chicago, which has quietly been a much-improved defense. The Bears have actually been stout against the run for most of the season, having allowed only two 100-yard games since Week 3. The Bears' defense has also forced 14 turnovers over the last four games while committing only six of their own.

This is close to a toss-up for me. I lean slightly toward Chicago, but Arizona can cover the 4.0-point spread.

The pick: Bears 27 – Cardinals 24

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

We (foolishly, in retrospect) backed the Cowboys in a big spot on the road last week and it really couldn't have gone worse. Dallas fell behind early and never truly rallied while allowing James Cook to run wild to a degree that Bills fans hadn't seen since the glory days of Fred Jackson.

We knew the Cowboys' run defense would be an issue, but that was an alarming result for a team that desperately wanted to prove it could beat a good opponent on the road. Instead, it feels like we're back to square one with Dallas, asking many of the same questions that seem to pop up on an annual basis.

The good news for the Cowboys is they immediately have another opportunity to prove themselves in a difficult road environment. The bad news is the Dolphins will likely get Tyreek Hill back after cruising to a 30-0 win over the Jets without his services.

Really, both of these teams are in similar situations. They've each made a living beating up on bad teams, but neither has truly proven that they can find a way to regroup and rally when the ball isn't bouncing their way. Obviously, something has to give this week, and one of these teams is going to feel significantly better about themselves heading into the postseason.

I like both offenses to find success, but I lean toward the Dolphins at home, assuming they have Hill back at full capacity.

The pick: Dolphins 33 – Cowboys 31

Sunday Night Football

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-6.5)

Eight years ago, it would've made a lot of sense for this to be the featured Sunday night game on Christmas weekend. In the year 2023… maybe not so much.

In the Broncos' defense, they still have plenty to play for. Winning out could net them an AFC Wild Card spot, and that's a distinct possibility with the Chargers and Raiders looming in Weeks 17 and 18. Meanwhile, the Patriots are locked in a draft positioning battle with the Cardinals and Commanders and may need to lose out in order to hang on to the No. 2 overall pick. We rarely see any true tanking in the NFL, but it's unquestionably in the Pats' best interest to stand their ground.

Regardless, I don't expect a Bill Belichick-led team to lie down, even in a lost season. The Pats played the Chiefs relatively tough last week and are still a solid defense – especially against the run. The Broncos got knocked back to earth last week by Detroit, managing just 287 yards of total offense against one of the league's leakiest defenses over the last several weeks.

It's tough to envision Denver running away with this game, but we'll back the Broncos to win by a touchdown and get the narrow cover.

The pick: Broncos 20 – Patriots 13

Monday Christmas Day Games

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.0)

The Raiders come into this game about as hot as possible after laying 63 points on the poor LA Chargers on Thursday night. While Vegas failed to become the second team this season to reach 70 points, it felt like even more of a beatdown than the Dolphins 70-20 trouncing of the Broncos.

We do have to keep in mind, however, that two weeks ago the Raiders managed just 202 total yards of offense, eight first downs and zero points in a 3-0 loss to the Vikings. Prior to The Disaster in the Desert, the Raiders had scored 17 points or fewer in six of their last seven games and 18 points or fewer in 11 of their first 13 games overall.

While the Chiefs still don't look like themselves, their last win prior to Sunday's 27-17 victory over the Patriots came in Vegas in Week 12. The Raiders jumped out to an early two-score lead before the Chiefs fired back to end the game on a 31-3 run.

The Raiders are playing with confidence and may get Josh Jacobs back, but the Chiefs should also return Isiah Pacheco after a two-game absence.

Admittedly, this feels like a lot of points for this version of the Chiefs, but we're rolling with Kansas City to cover at home.

The pick: Chiefs 27 – Raiders 14

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5)

This number continues to move in favor of the Eagles, who could certainly use a convincing, bounceback win after dropping three straight to San Francisco, Dallas and Seattle. No, the Eagles don't look as dominant as last season. And yes, they have a worse point differential than the Vikings.

But I still believe this is one of the five best teams in the NFL at its core, and the schedule plays to Philly's favor the rest of the way. After this week, they host the Cardinals in Week 17 before a rematch against the Giants in Week 18.

I know it's a lot of points, but I like this as a "reminder" game for the Eagles, who should be able to corral Tommy DeVito and get back on track.

The pick: Eagles 28 – Giants 14

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (-5.0)

We finish off the holiday weekend with the best game of the week and one of the better games of the year between the Super Bowl favorites in each conference.

Both teams are 11-3 and need to keep winning to maintain their grip on the 1-seed. But with all due respect to the Ravens, who just smacked around my Jaguars on Sunday night, I view the Niners as a tier above Baltimore – and the rest of the league, for that matter. When the Niners are healthy, they've done nothing but steamroll teams. In victories over the Cowboys, Jags and Eagles – arguably their three best wins of the season – the Niners outscored their opponents 122 to 32. 

What's most impressive about the Niners' build is they have so much talent that they don't even need to play all that well on both ends to win. Last week against Arizona, the Niners allowed 436 yards of offense – including 234 rushing yards – and still won 45 to 29. Sure, it's the Cardinals and some of that production came in garbage time, but my point is that San Francisco's room for error is significantly larger on a week-to-week basis than any other team's. 

As you can probably guess, we're rolling with the Niners to win and cover at home. Lamar Jackson will present a unique challenge for the San Francisco defense, but with no Mark Andrews and no Keaton Mitchell, this is a difficult spot for Baltimore.

The pick: 49ers 30 – Ravens 23