ADP Analysis: Mostert Sinking, Coleman Rising

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Published on July 17, 2020

With Wednesday's 4 p.m. EDT deadline come and gone, we now know that Dak Prescott, A.J. Green and Hunter Henry will play out 2020 under franchise tags, while Derrick Henry secured a multi-year contract. This shouldn't really matter for best-ball leagues and other redraft formats, but what should matter and what does matter aren't always one and the same.

Alas, we don't yet have enough to data to gauge how the tags (or lack thereof) have impacted draft results, so this week's edition of ADP Analysis will focus on news that's had some time to marinate:

1. Patrick Mahomes signs a 10-year extension (July 6)

Mahomes is still QB2 and isn't likely to move from that spot, but he was drafted at ADP 29.4 from July 7-15, up from ADP 32.3 between the end of the NFL Draft and July 5. While the extension doesn't seem relevant to his 2020 fantasy value, the deluge of pro-Mahomes content on various websites appears to be having a minor impact on his ADP.

We've also seen a slight upward trend for the other pieces of the KC passing game, with Tyreek Hill (ADP 13.0), Travis Kelce (17.9), Mecole Hardman (94.0) and Sammy Watkins (139.2) a bit more expensive relative to May/June. On the other hand, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is down to ADP 24.9 the last 10 days, though he's holding steady as RB14 even as his overall ADP drops from the early 20s to mid-20s. Accordingly, Damien Williams is up to RB29 and

1. Patrick Mahomes signs a 10-year extension (July 6)

Note: The Williams/CEH trend does slightly predate the Mahomes extension, but most of the movement on Damien has happened since the QB signed his megadeal.

2. Raheem Mostert requests a trade (July 8)

For this one, we'll just compare ADPs from two periods; the first being April 27 to July 7, and the second being July 9-15.

Raheem Mostert: RB27, ADP 54.0 ➡ RB31, ADP 62.0

Tevin Coleman: RB42, ADP 98.3 ➡ RB37, ADP 90.4

Jerick McKinnon: RB70, ADP 233.4 ➡ RB68, ADP 228.1

The background here is that Mostert signed a three-year, $8.65 million contract last March, back when he was a core special teamer and only third or fourth on the RB depth chart. It was a generous deal for his role at the time, but he wants a raise or another extension now that he's a playoff hero and a probable starter on offense. Negotiations with the 49ers apparently stalled out, so now Mostert is requesting a trade. Of course, he'd probably be quick to reverse course if the 49ers came through with a better offer.

Anyway, it appears best-ball drafters are rightly worried about what might happen to Mostert outside the context of Kyle Shanahan's offense. It's a valid concern, but I don't think we'll find out this season. The Niners already traded Matt Breida, and I doubt they'll be willing to dump another talented RB for a late-round pick, which is probably what Mostert would fetch in a trade. I had Mostert ranked at RB23 before the trade request, so I'll happily take the discount when he falls any lower than early to mid-sixth round.

Coleman at RB37 isn't something I care to argue against, but there's better value available in the same range from pass-catching aces James White and Tarik Cohen. I'm fine with Coleman as an eighth-round pick for an RB-needy team if both White and Cohen are off the board.

The guy I have no interest in is McKinnon, who was been picked in 52.6 percent of drafts since the Mostert trade request, up from 35.2 percent the two and a half months prior. At his best, McKinnon was a workout warrior without the football skills to match. Now, he's a 28-year-old running back who hasn't played a snap in three years.

Guys like Giovani Bernard, Ito Smith and Mike Boone are all better end-game picks for best-ball drafts, and I'd rather take a super-late flyer on Jeff Wilson or JaMycal Hasty if I'm taking a shot on a 49ers depth back in a deep format. The McKinnon contract is a sunk cost, so he won't necessarily beat out Wilson, Hasty and Salvon Ahmed in the competition for one or two back-end roster spots.

3. Kelvin Harmon tears an ACL (July 14)

Harmon was drafted in only 26 of 2,484 leagues (1 percent) from April 7 to July 13, while Steve Sims was selected in 70 percent (WR82, ADP 222.0) and Antonio Gandy-Golden — a rookie fourth-round pick — in 14 percent (WR93, ADP 238.3). Sims had already crept up to WR79, ADP 213.7 over the first 13 days of July, and he then bumped up to WR75, ADP 205.3 in the first two days (July 15-16) after the Harmon injury announcement. Gandy-Golden has also seen a little boost, up to WR88, ADP 237.2, coming off the board in seven of 29 leagues (24.1 percent) July 15-16.

It makes sense for Sims to generate more interest after he closed out last season with 230 yards and four TDs in the final four weeks, but I don't really think the Harmon injury should have much of an impact. PFF charted Sims running 78.9 percent of his routes from the slot last year, while Harmon's 21.7 percent slot rate was the lowest among Washington receivers. Sims figures to compete with Trey Quinn, while Harmon was slated to battle Gandy-Golden for the other outside job across from Terry McLaurin.

It's possible the team rolls with Cody Latimer and Cam Sims as the new competition for that spot, but there's also still time to add a free agent or swing a trade. I still like Steven Sims in the 17th/18th round instead of the 19th/20th, and I wonder if his draft price has been depressed by concerns about Antonio Gibson potentially taking some slot snaps. For what it's worth, coach Ron Rivera said Gibson will start off in the backfield, so it's possible the rookie only challenges Sims for return work rather than snaps and targets on offense.

Bonus Notes

Last week I wrote about my least-favorite players at current ADP, highlighting Aaron Rodgers, Leonard Fournette, Kenny Golladay and Emmanuel Sanders. It occurred to me afterward that I'd somehow forgotten about Marlon Mack, who is coming off the board at RB35, ADP 82.4. Perhaps my own rankings are a bit harsh with Mack all the way down at RB52, but there's no way I'd consider him as a top-40 RB or top-100 overall pick. He doesn't catch passes, and his team just drafted a far more talented runner. Mack probably needs a Jonathan Taylor injury just to return to his familiar range as a mid-range RB2. The floor is non-existent, and the ceiling is unexciting.
I've mostly been playing best ball on Drafters.com, where my highest-owned players through 22 drafts are Duke Johnson (50 percent), Devin Singletary (45 percent), Joe Burrow (41 percent), George Kittle (41 percent), Darius Slayton (36 percent), Terry McLaurin (36 percent), James Washington (36 percent) and Tyler Boyd (32 percent). I've been pretty consistent drafting either Kittle, Travis Kelce or Austin Ekeler in Round 2, and it seems like Round 5 is always a decision between Singletary, McLaurin and/or Courtland Sutton.
Austin Hooper (TE11, ADP 115.8) is now commonly found in the 10th/11th round, with the gap between him and Hayden Hurst (TE9, ADP 103.0) further widening. A few months ago, I figured I'd have a ton of Hurst shares and zero Hooper shares. Instead, I find myself drafting Hooper far more often. It feels like markets have over-reacted to the idea that Hooper's 2019 production was a a product of role rather than talent. Sure, he got a ton of opportunities, but it also required getting open and catching passes. And now he has a huge contract with a team that appears to lack a viable No. 3 receiver. Even if he's only getting 5-6 targets per game instead of 7-8, it should be easy enough for Hooper to pay off his 10th-round price.

All ADP data comes from BB10s.com.