This article is part of our NFL Observations series.
Fantasy football is a game that never stops surprising us. Every year there are disappointments and unexpected breakouts. It's advisable to draft a blend of safe players and those with upside others overlook. We also need to fade players who could be facing down seasons, despite the optimism of the fantasy community. Along those lines, here are five bold predictions for this season. They might be bold, but they aren't ridiculous.
Amari Cooper is a Top-12 Wide Receiver
Cooper is one of this year's best draft values. In two seasons with the Browns, he's averaged 75 catches, 1,205 yards, seven touchdowns and 130 targets. The wideout should have great success with Deshaun Watson this season. Last year, Cooper and Watson played five games together. In those contests, Cooper had at least 90 yards four times. Even if the veteran had a similar season to 2022 and 2023, it would be a strong season, but Cooper's success with Watson provides hope for an even bigger campaign. Cooper is one of the more unheralded stars in the league and should provide a nice fantasy profit this season.
Aaron Jones Posts 1,500 Yards & 10 TDs
Jones is still an excellent player. In 2023, he was in the 64th percentile for broken tackles, 75th percentile in yards after contact and 73rd percentile in yards after the catch. In addition, the running back produced at least 111 yards in each of his last five games (including postseason). Some worry about his durability, but before
Fantasy football is a game that never stops surprising us. Every year there are disappointments and unexpected breakouts. It's advisable to draft a blend of safe players and those with upside others overlook. We also need to fade players who could be facing down seasons, despite the optimism of the fantasy community. Along those lines, here are five bold predictions for this season. They might be bold, but they aren't ridiculous.
Amari Cooper is a Top-12 Wide Receiver
Cooper is one of this year's best draft values. In two seasons with the Browns, he's averaged 75 catches, 1,205 yards, seven touchdowns and 130 targets. The wideout should have great success with Deshaun Watson this season. Last year, Cooper and Watson played five games together. In those contests, Cooper had at least 90 yards four times. Even if the veteran had a similar season to 2022 and 2023, it would be a strong season, but Cooper's success with Watson provides hope for an even bigger campaign. Cooper is one of the more unheralded stars in the league and should provide a nice fantasy profit this season.
Aaron Jones Posts 1,500 Yards & 10 TDs
Jones is still an excellent player. In 2023, he was in the 64th percentile for broken tackles, 75th percentile in yards after contact and 73rd percentile in yards after the catch. In addition, the running back produced at least 111 yards in each of his last five games (including postseason). Some worry about his durability, but before missing six games last year, he had only missed four games in the prior four seasons. Unlike Jones' time in Green Bay where he was always in a timeshare, it's possible that he sees a heavy snap share in Minnesota. The Vikings signed the 29-year-old to a one-year contract, so the team has no need to ease his workload. In addition, backup Ty Chandler is hardly a player who has the talent to cut into Jones' touches. Jones could be in line for one of the best seasons of his career.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Breaks Out with 1,100 Yards
After Seattle picked him 20th in the 2023 draft, Smith-Njigba was the clear No. 3 receiver in the offense. While DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett played 780 snaps and had 120 targets, Smith-Njigba played 639 snaps with 93 targets. It may be time for a changing of the guard. Lockett showed decline despite one of the highest target totals of his career. With new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, the Seahawks moved on from tight ends Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson, which will leave more snaps and targets for the wide receivers. The second-year wideout should see his snaps move closer to 800 with targets going near 120. Smith-Njigba wasn't tarted deep last season — an absurdly low seventh-percentile depth of target — but he somewhat made up for it with an 83rd percentile yards-after-catch rate. The target depth could rise this season with Grubb's new downfield playbook. We'll finally get to see why so many were excited about JSN when he entered the league.
Kirk Cousins is a Top-8 Quarterback
After spending the last six years with Minnesota, Cousins is now in Atlanta. Last season, he suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 8. The injury typically saps explosiveness, but that should not be an issue for the pocket passer. Since 2022, Cousins has averaged more than 30 touchdown passes. The good news is that he's going to a similar offense from Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell to Atlanta offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. In terms of weapons, both Drake London and Kyle Pitts could become elite receivers. The Falcons will also have the incredible speed of Darnell Mooney to stretch the defense. The Atlanta passing attack failed the last couple years due to quarterback play and coaching. Those days are over. Cousins will continue to be a strong fantasy option in his new home.
Trey McBride Finishes Outside the Top-5 Tight Ends
After a tremendous season last year, Trey McBride is the third tight end off the board in early drafts. That likely will prove too expensive. McBride didn't see the lead tight end role until Week 6 because Zach Ertz was the starter. Once he took over, he averaged six catches, 62 yards and eight targets. So why the pessimism for 2024? Between injuries to Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson, McBride was often the Cardinals' No. 1 target last season. This season, Arizona drafted wide receiver Marvin Harrison fourth overall. And Wilson showed enough that he should be an effective No. 2 receiver. As a result, McBride is likely to see a decrease in targets as the possible third option in the passing attack. That will put the tight end outside the top-5 tight ends.
