Stat of the Day: 24 Stats, 24 Takes

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Published on June 4, 2024

In May, I started posting a "Stat of the Day" on X. I'll do this through mid-August. The goal is to take the most interesting stat I can find for a player and apply some actionable fantasy advice to it. You can check out my timeline @JimCoventryNFL or the @Rotowire account where they are reposted.

At the end of each month, I'll compile the entries into one article for your convenience. Below are the entries from May. The posts appear here just as they appear X, with some minor edits for readability.

Drake London had 8+ targets six times in 2022 and 2023. In those games, he averaged 6.5 receptions and 86 yards. That was with terrible QBs. As the alpha WR with QB Kirk Cousins and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, London's mid-2nd round ADP is justified.
A.J. Brown had six gms with 100+ yards through Week 8, but just one more 100-yard game in his last nine. Jalen Hurts was dinged up, but I blame former offensive coordinator Brian Johnson for not making adjustments. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore should provide more route variety. Possible career year in store for Brown.
Ja'Marr Chase had three games with 150 yards as a rookie. He's only had one more in his last 28 games. Two-high shells by defenses have limited his explosive plays. Also, Chase has not proven to have the floor of Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill or A.J. Brown. That keeps Chase from being a top-3 pick.
NFL defenses played 73 percent zone in 2023. Only four teams played less than 67 percent zone, and two of those four teams have new defensive coaches this year. We should continue to see increased heavy zone defense, which should lead to continued production from slot WRs and TEs.
Stefon Diggs averaged 159 targets the last three years in Buffalo. Last year, Nico Collins led the team with 109 targets. Houston used three WR sets at the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL. With three very good WRs and a team that may run more (Joe Mixon), Diggs may not see 110 targets.
Amari Cooper has averaged 75 catches, 1,205 yards and 7 TDs in two years with Cleveland despite sketchy QB play. Cooper also had 90+ yards in four of five games with Deshaun Watson last year. Cooper is often drafted outside the top-45 picks in fantasy. He may be one of the best values in 2024.
Justin Jefferson played the last four games in 2023 with backup QBs and averaged 7.5 catches, 119 yards, 0.5 TDs and 11 targets. The Sam Darnold/J.J. McCarthy QB duo should not limit Jefferson to less than 1,600 yards. Another top-4 WR finish is likely.
Garrett Wilson averaged 158 targets in his two years in New York. Off-target passes led to Wilson catching 56.5 percent of targets and posting 33rd percentile yards after the catch in 2023. With Aaron Rodgers under center, look for Wilson to surpass 1,400 yards.
Josh Allen rushed for 6.2 yards per carry in 2021 and '22 but fell to 4.7 last year. However, after rushing for 6-9 TDs in five straight years, Allen rushed for 15 TDs last year. After averaging 100+ rushes for six years, don't be surprised if the hits take a toll on Allen's rushing upside in 2024.
De'Von Achane had 7.8 yards per carry and 11 TDs in 11 games. However, in his last seven games, Achane posted 4.97 yards per carry. Achane also scored just one TD in his last six games. In a likely timeshare, with durability concerns and a "mortal" end to 2023, the second-year player is a risky top-10 RB in fantasy.
Mike Evans scored 25+ PPR points five times and 15+ PPR points 10 times in 2023. Despite seeing many deep passes, Evans had a solid 54th percentile yards after the catch rate. Baker Mayfield loves to throw downfield, so Evans has a great chance to come close to last year's success.
Deebo Samuel's 2.46 rushes and 5.9 targets per game were three-year lows. Of course, a 99th percentile yards after the catch rate helped Samuel's production. Still, the low touch volume makes it risky to draft the veteran at his WR15 ADP.
Travis Kelce averaged 21.5 PPR points in four playoff games last year. It's possible he wasn't healthy from an early season injury until late in the season. Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy's speed could provide more room for Kelce underneath. Age is a concern, but Kelce could be the TE1 again in 2024.
Tyreek Hill has averaged 119 catches, 1,755 yards, 10 TDs and 170 targets during his two years in Miami. No WR has had a higher floor/ceiling combo than Hill during that time. Hill is 30 years old, but has shown no signs of decline. He's a locked in top-5 pick.
In the first eight games of 2023, Travis Etienne averaged 19 carries. In the last nine games, the RB saw his carries fall to 12.9 per game. In the last two years, each time the Jaguars increased the former Clemson Tigers' work, they quickly throttle it down. With workload and offensive line concerns, Etienne is likely to be inconsistent in 2024.
In 2019-2020, Derrick Henry rushed for 5.3 yards per carry. In the last three seasons, Henry has fallen off by one yard per rush. But in 2023, the former Titan posted an 86th-percentile broken tackle rate and 77th-percentile yards after contact. Playing with RPO concepts alongside QB Lamar Jackson will give Henry extra space. Look for 1,300+ yards and 10+ TDs.
Jonathan Taylor had a career low 4.4 yards per carry last year. However, Taylor was in the 71st-percentile in broken tackle rate and 81st-percentile in yards after contact. This year, there should be RPO opportunities with QB Anthony Richardson behind a solid OL. Taylor could go back to an elite level.
In the 11 games that Chris Olave had 9+ targets, he went over 86 yards 10 times. Don't forget, Derek Carr (in 15 gms during the 2022 season) was the QB when Davante Adams went over 1,500 yds with 14 TDs. Carr can support a WR1. Olave was nicked up often last year and posted 87 catches, 1,123 yards and five TDs.
Saquon Barkley missed 21 games from 2019-2021. However, Barkley has only missed four games the last two years. In 2022 and 2023, the running back averaged 320 touches. Barkley is still just 27 years old. Finally playing with a very good offensive line and an excellent passing attack, a career year is possible
In the Rams' last three games (excluding Week 18), Puka Nacua averaged 8 catches, 154 yards and one TD while Cooper Kupp averaged 5 catches, 35 yards and 0.33 TDs. That stretch appeared to be the final passing of the torch from Kupp to Nacua. Drafting Nacua in the first round of fantasy draft makes sense, but it's also a bet on Matthew Stafford staying healthy.
Last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown had just one game with fewer than 49 yards. Also, St. Brown was held to fewer than 70 yards only three times. On a week-to-week basis, St. Brown has an incredible scoring floor, making him well worth his mid-first round price tag in drafts.
CeeDee Lamb had at least 110 yards in seven of the Cowboys' last 12 games while scoring 11 TDs during that span. Dallas figured out during the Week 6 bye it lacked a consistent running game. That rushing attack may be worse this year. Expect a heavy dose of the WR. Lamb could see 190 targets.
Christian McCaffrey had a ridiculous 15 games with 20+ PPR points (19 games played, including NFL playoffs) while never scoring fewer than 13.1 PPR points. McCaffrey is still 28 years old, so we should get another year of "prime" production.
DK Metcalf had 1,303 yds in 2020. However, the veteran doesn't have more than 1,114 yds in any of his other four seasons. With an ADP of WR24, draft Metcalf if looking for a steady floor. After Geno Smith's numbers fell off from 2022 to 2023, there may not be big upside for Metcalf.

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