2018 Football Draft Kit: Sleepers & Busts

Fantasy owners love to debate sleepers and busts. But the terms "sleeper" and "bust" do not accurately reflect the actual topic of the debate, nor do they accurately reflect the purpose of this article. So, let's be accurate and term it what it is – "undervalued" and "overvalued." The goal of this article is not to predict unknown players who will be great this year, nor is it to predict name-brand players who will be terrible. It is simply to identify players whose likely average draft position (ADP) makes them either undervalued or overvalued.

Like everything else in life, fantasy drafts are about opportunity cost — the potential gain given up by not drafting Player A to instead draft Player B. To determine that, owners must consider the costs and benefits of each player relative to his ADP. This article will help owners make those decisions. But remember, calling Christian McCaffrey overvalued, or a bust, does not mean he will be awful this year. It simply means his risk outweighs the likelihood that he will return his ADP value.

For our purposes, we limited "busts" to an ADP top-10 QB/TE or top-20 RB/WR who is likely to be overpriced.

UNDERVALUED

Marquise Goodwin, WR, 49Ers

The 49ers largely stood pat with their pass catchers this offseason, despite having 32-year-old Pierre Garcon, who is returning from a neck injury, as their presumed top target and untested second-year George Kittle as their starting tight end, both of whom are getting more hype this offseason than Goodwin. Goodwin is only 27, runs a blazing 4.27 40 and clicked immediately with Jimmy Garoppolo when he took over as the team's starting QB last year. Second-round pick Dante Pettis could be in the mix too, but he seems likely to contribute mostly as a return man.

Eli Manning, QB, Giants

Manning has been below average for five years now, but if you squint you can see the upside. Odell Beckham Jr. will be back healthy, second-year tight end Evan Engram runs a 4.4, Sterling Shepard took a step forward last year and Saquon Barkley should be a major factor in the passing game. The Giants also significantly re-tooled their offensive line this offseason, but perhaps more important, Pat Shurmur, who turned Case Keenum into a quality QB and was Nick Foles' coordinator when he had 27 TDs and two picks, takes over at head coach. Manning has never had a better environment in which to work.

– Chris Liss

Josh Gordon, WR, Browns

Just 27 and with a full offseason to focus on football, Gordon might finally return to the player who dominated the league in 2013, when he posted 1,646 yards and eight touchdowns. He was the 20th WR off the board in drafts this spring, largely because his 335 yards and one touchdown in five games last year raise doubts that he's still elite. However, abysmal quarterback play masked the fact that he routinely dominated cornerbacks, and he'll now benefit from having either Tyrod Taylor or Baker Mayfield under center. Don't be surprised if he's the top scoring wide receiver this season.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Chiefs

The stars seem to have aligned for Watkins this offseason. He's now on the Chiefs with cannon-armed quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who can capitalize on Watkins' ability to sprint past cornerbacks. The presence of tight end Travis Kelce and burner wide receiver Tyreek Hill prevents defenses from selling out to stop Watkins, giving him plenty of opportunities for favorable coverage. Kansas City did little to upgrade last year's 28th-ranked defense, which should lead to plenty of shootouts to help Watkins outperform his average draft position.

– Jim Coventry

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears

Trubisky's leash was short in 2017, but he showed potential and improved throughout the season, topping 60 percent completion rates in six of his last eight starts. This year he actually has a chance to use his strong arm with Matt Nagy the new head coach and Mark Helfrich at offensive coordinator. Offseason acquisitions Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Anthony Miller and Trey Burton, plus holdovers Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, give Trubisky plenty of weapons. Especially in two-QB leagues, Trubisky is severely undervalued, but he should be viable even in one-QB leagues.

Chris Hogan, WR, Patriots

Tom Brady and the Patriots like to throw it deep. Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski led the Patriots with 18 receptions of at least 20 yards in 2017. But with Cooks now in Los Angeles, Hogan is likely to inherit many of Cooks' deep targets. Hogan had six 20-plus-yard receptions in just four of his nine games last season, and Hogan has more 40-plus-yard receptions than even Gronkowski since Hogan joined the Patriots. The Patriots' biggest offseason acquisition at wide receiver, Jordan Matthews, has been primarily a slot receiver throughout his career.

– Alex Rikleen

Anthony Miller, WR, Bears

After rewriting Memphis' receiving records with two seasons of at least 90 receptions, 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns, this year's version of Cooper Kupp is poised for immediate success as a rookie. A former walk-on, Miller beats coverage with quickness and deception and is excellent after the catch. That refinement combined with a Steve Smith-esque chip on his shoulder will take the former zero-star recruit to a top-three option, at least, in a downfield passing attack under new coach Matt Nagy that has roughly 400 targets up for grabs.

Rico Gathers, TE, Cowboys

Gathers is the NFL's best kept secret. He flashed his potential last summer with seven catches, 106 yards and two touchdowns in two preseason games, but a helmet-to-helmet hit in practice ended his season with a concussion and jaw/neck injuries. Like other well-known tight ends, Gathers was a power forward on his collegiate basketball team. He didn't play college football, but at 6-6, 285, he has the physical tools in Year 3 to be a mismatch nightmare for an offense desperate for one. With Jason Witten and Dez Bryant gone, Gathers has a path to targets, especially at the goal line.

– Luke Hoover

Sony Michel, RB, Patriots

Given the success the Patriots have enjoyed with veteran castoffs, we should take notice when they use a top-50 pick on their back eld for the first time since 2006. Bill Belichick must really love Michel as a replacement for Dion Lewis, who averaged 17.8 PPR points in eight games after Mike Gillislee was phased out last year. This backfield looks crowded at first glance, but Gillislee and Jeremy Hill aren't even roster locks, and James White was awfully quiet late last season. Then there's Rex Burkhead, whose goal-line role might dry up as the 214-pound rookie replaces 195-pound Lewis.

Jay Ajayi, RB, Eagles

Including playoffs, Ajayi averaged 13.8 carries in his final six games last season, even as LeGarrette Blount got eight per game himself. The Eagles didn't sign nor draft any RBs in the offseason, apparently pleased with what they saw from Ajayi (5.8 YPC) and undrafted rookie Corey Clement (4.3 YPC) last year. The former Dolphin has a clear path to the lead role, which likely entails about 15 carries per game behind an elite offensive line. Ajayi could also take on an expanded role in the passing game, as 35-year-old Darren Sproles is no sure thing returning from a torn ACL and broken arm.

– Jerry Donabedian

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos

D.T. had a disappointing season last year ... for himself. However, by the standards that now exist in the NFL, he had a perfectly admirable season with a QB rotation that would make the Montreal Alouettes cringe. Thomas had 140 targets last season, his sixth consecutive season with at least 140 targets. Denver upgraded to Case Keenum at QB, which for most teams might be lateral but for the Broncos is massive. Keenum supported three fantasy-viable pass-catchers last year and will have no problem repeating that in Denver. Thomas is an absolute slam dunk, week-to-week WR2 with upside.

Dion Lewis, RB, Titans

Most of the attention on the Titans this year centers around their new coaching staff, and the crowd seems to be heavily gravitating toward Derrick Henry as the lead rusher for Tennessee. However, it's Lewis who really has the upside in this offense. He signed a four-year contract (with a two-year out), but his role in the back eld is more relevant for fantasy. Henry has only 32 targets in 31 career games; Lewis eclipsed that last year as part of a four-man rotation in New England. With Lewis at RB27 and Henry at RB16, it is clear who the value is in this backfield.

– Davis Mattek

Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks

Anyone surprised the Seahawks drafted a running back in the first round wasn't listening to Pete Carroll all offseason. The Seahawks are singularly focused on fielding an effective running game after the failures of the last couple years, particularly last season in which they became the first team since at least 1990 without a red-zone rushing TD by a RB. After running on 39.8 and 40.6 percent of plays in 2016 and 2017, respectively, expect Seattle to get closer to the 48.3 percent it posted in 2015 when it last had a legit ground game. Unless Penny is a total fraud, that means hefty volume for the rookie.

Marlon Mack, RB, Colts

Last year, Mack backed up Frank Gore, who had 290 touches, and he played with a torn labrum. Just by virtue of being the starter this year he should have more value than his RB40 ADP. Among running backs with at least 90 rushes last year, big-play Mack ranked sixth in percentage of runs of 10-plus yards (12.9) and also averaged a league-leading 13.5 YAC (min. 20 rec.), which should help him hold off fourth-round pick Nyheim Hines for passing-down work. If Andrew Luck returns healthy, all the better. But either way, Mack should have plenty of volume.

– Jason Thornbury

OVERVALUED

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers

The addition of running back C.J. Anderson means McCaffrey won't see a ton of early down work this season, and between Anderson and Cam Newton, almost nothing at the goal line. Catching 75-80 balls works in PPR, but he's more like peak Danny Woodhead than a running back around which you want to build your team in the early rounds. Even were Anderson to go down, it does not seem like the Panthers trust McCaffrey – who weighs only 205 pounds despite being 5-11 – to handle a heavy rushing workload.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

I love Hilton as a player. Given his speed, quickness and route-running skills he's almost unguardable, and he'll burn defenses for long touchdowns. The problem is his value largely hinges on Andrew Luck being healthy, and Luck did not throw an NFL football until June minicamp, more than 18 months after shoulder surgery. While I'm neither a doctor, nor physical therapist, I'm pretty sure month 19 or 20 isn't usually when things start to improve if they haven't already. It seems there's a significant chance Luck is never again the player he once was, and that's if he returns at all.

– Chris Liss

Brandin Cooks, WR, Rams

Catching passes from Drew Brees and Tom Brady the last three years, Cooks averaged 1,131 yards and eight touchdowns, but on the Rams he will see a significant drop in quarterback play with Jared Goff under center. Goff couldn't get 600 yards out of wide receiver Sammy Watkins last year, as he locked on wideouts Cooper Kupp (94 targets) and Robert Woods (85) and running back Todd Gurley (87). There might not be enough targets to go around to help Cooks earn enough fantasy value to merit his top-20 ADP.

Derrick Henry, RB, Titans

Henry's typically a top-30 fantasy pick, but it doesn't seem that the Titans share that level of enthusiasm. Even when DeMarco Murray was on his last legs in 2017, Henry failed to touch the ball 10 times in seven games. And it's not like he was a star in a bad situation – he was held to less than 3.3 yards per carry in nine of his last 15 games. Although Murray's gone, the team paid Dion Lewis starter money for him to be running back 1B to Henry's 1A. Between lack of consistent production and his new competition, Henry's a player to avoid at his price.

– Jim Coventry

Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans

In 2017, QB5 and QB19 were separated by less than four fantasy points per game. Four points was the difference between QB6 and QB22 in 2016, and between QB5 and QB25 in 2015. Watson threw 4.0 touchdowns per game in his last four starts, smashing Peyton Manning's all-time record 55 TD-season pace of 3.4. We must expect regression in Watson's TD production in 2018, and in the crowded QB middle class, one TD per game is the difference between a starter and someone still on waivers. And don't forget, Watson's a mobile QB returning from an ACL tear on a tight recovery timeframe.

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

Kamara deserves consideration as a top-10 RB, but he's unlikely to fall much farther than RB5 or 6 in most drafts. 2015 was a wacky year for RBs, but in the other four of the last five seasons every top-6 RB had at least 225 carries for 1,000 yards – except 2017 Kamara, who barely managed half that many carries. The Saints are adamant that they won't increase his workload in 2018, and Mark Ingram still looms. Kamara is a fantastic talent, but he'll have to repeat his record-setting efficiency to out-produce the heavier-usage running backs getting drafted after him.

– Alex Rikleen

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers

In 10 seasons as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Kyle Shanahan has overseen three top-10 fantasy quarterbacks. In 2009, Matt Schaub threw for 4,770 yards and 29 touchdowns. He had Andre Johnson. In 2012, Robert Griffin produced 27 total TDs, with 815 rushing yards. And then in 2016, with Julio Jones, Matt Ryan threw for 4,944 yards and 38 scores. Garoppolo has seven career starts, absolutely no rushing threat and weapons that will be led by a 32-year-old Pierre Garcon and 180-pound Marquise Goodwin.

Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings

Kirk Cousins provides a passing-attack upgrade to an offense that ran second most in the league in 2017. Latavius Murray is a 6-3, 230-pound grinder who has 22 rushing touchdowns in the last 29 games he's played without Cook. If the latter shows rust in an attack that relies on quick cutting and explosive burst, a new offensive coordinator might spread the ball more than Cook's owners will like. Despite an impressive resume, that's a lot of uncertainty for a guy with less than 15 quarters of pro action and an ACL injury.

– Luke Hoover

LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills

With 2,626 NFL touches on top of two years of heavy college usage, the 30-year-old McCoy would set off red flags even if the team around him wasn't disintegrating. He had a career-low 4.0 YPC last season, and that was with some help from Tyrod Taylor, whose rushing ability forced defenses to respect the keeper option on zone-reads. The Bills are weak inside after losing LG Richie Incognito and C Eric Wood, and they can't afford an injury at tackle after trading LT Cordy Glenn to Cincinnati. The team also lacks the necessary talent at quarterback and wide receiver to keep safeties out of the box.

Evan Engram, TE, Giants

Engram's big rookie season was based on volume, with 7.7 targets per game making up for the lowest catch rate (55.7 percent) among any TE with more than 60 targets. Sure, Eli Manning and a bad offensive line were partially to blame, but Sterling Shepard still managed a 70.2 percent catch rate and 8.7 YPT (compared to 6.3 YPT for Engram). Is there any good reason why Engram, rather than Shepard, would be the No. 3 option in this offense behind Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr.? Engram's efficiency will improve, but not quite enough to make up for the reduction in volume.

– Jerry Donabedian

Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars

The likely truth is that all of the Jacksonville offensive pieces are overvalued. Blake Bortles did a great job of limiting his own mistakes last season, which seems unlikely to repeat, and the Jaguars' defense was truly historic. For Fournette to be worth his ADP, Corey Grant and T.J. Yeldon can't encroach on any of his early down work, and he will have to retain his touchdown efficiency from last season, which is one of the least sticky statistics that we have. Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman and even LeSean McCoy seem like better bets.

Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns

The way Jarvis Landry was used in Miami made him an excellent fantasy option. His particular skill set worked for the way the Dolphins played, but in any modern and effective offense, throwing three-yard passes to a slot wide receiver should be a complementary part of an offense, not the focal point. Josh Gordon is one of the most physically talented wide receivers of the last decade and Corey Coleman runs the sort of routes that are more likely to generate yards and points. Unless Hue Jackson plans on giving Landry 150 targets, his ADP is massively inflated.

– Davis Mattek

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers

A 6-5 receiver with excellent speed for his size should really get more out of 136 targets than what Evans did last year. Evans' fantasy production ranked 20th among wide receivers, but he'll be drafted as a top-10 WR this year because owners still remember his huge 2016 season. But that production came on 173 targets – he was just as inefficient in 2016 as he was in 2017. And it won't be surprising if he has fewer targets again this season. If you're looking for 1,000 yards and five TDs, Golden Tate will give you that, and he'll go 2-3 rounds later.

Josh Gordon, WR, Browns

It takes a bit of faith to draft Gordon at his ADP – fourth round, 20th WR. Sure, fantasy titles are often won on faith, but owners seem to assume Gordon is the same receiver he was five years ago. While he posted 18.6 YPR in his five games last year, he caught just 42.8 percent of his targets (91st) for 8.0 YPT (39th). Was that all quarterback play? Rust? Maybe. Tyrod Taylor is an upgrade, but he's still mediocre. And who knows about rookie Baker Mayfield? More relevant, Gordon likely won't average eight targets a game this year with the addition of Jarvis Landry.

– Jason Thornbury


This article appears in the 2018 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine now.