Stock Watch: Tight End Sleepers Pt. 2

This is the second post in a series about breakout candidates among the late-round tight end options. The previous article, here, looked at Chris Herndon and Jace Sternberger. This one will look at the Titans and Colts, snaring all of Jonnu Smith, Anthony Firkser, Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox, and Trey Burton in our net.

TITANS TIGHT ENDS

Jonnu Smith, Anthony Firkser, MyCole Pruitt

This is one of the NFL's more interesting collection of tight ends, and probably one of the most talented. They're certainly among the fastest, quickest, and most explosive, if nothing else. With an average height/weight of 6-foot-2, 248 pounds, they're also likely the smallest tight end rotation in the league.

That last detail is a strange one given how run-obsessed the Titans are, but it's an intentional part of the formula. The Titans are committed to their theory of rangy run blockers, and perhaps the speed of these tight ends is an indispensable part of how the Titans make downfield blocks that spring Henry's bigger plays, delaying linebackers and safeties long enough for Henry to build up the sort of momentum that no one can stop.

Unfortunately for fantasy owners, we don't get points for good blocks. It's problematic, then, that it seems Smith's blocking-heavy role from 2019 has no obvious reason to change going into 2020. This is one of the more frustrating cases of player utilization in the entire league, because Smith is one of the very most talented pass catchers among NFL tight ends. Maybe he's a good blocker, but we know he's a uniquely dangerous receiver and it's simply wasteful to divert him away from that task. Yet the Titans had Smith blocking on 27 percent of his passing reps last year. On a team that throws the ball fewer than 30 times per game as a matter of policy, Smith can't afford to block on those precious few passing plays. Not just that, but in order to keep Smith in blocking position the Titans tend to keep him close to the line of scrimmage, leaving his ADOT at 5.0 yards and making him uniquely dependent on YAC production (8.3 yards in 2019, 9.3 yards in 2018).

You might notice that Smith posted very high YAC numbers in both of the last two years. This is no fluke – with a 4.62 40, 38-inch vertical, 127-inch broad jump, and 4.18-second 20-yard shuttle, Smith is basically an oversized but still athletic wide receiver. The Titans should just choose to throw the ball more, and let Smith run more routes further downfield on those plays. It is a certainty that Smith would post big numbers in this event – his athleticism, NFL production, and college production all tell us this. Smith's sophomore season at Florida International may well be the most impressive receiving performance by a tight end going back decades. And yet, the philosophy of the Tennessee offense and the surrounding personnel in Tennessee make it appear unlikely that the Titans will consider such a revision to Smith's role, especially when the results last year were so good for the offense at large.

It's easy to miss it, but Firkser is among the Tennessee personnel most harmful to Smith's fantasy upside. The Henry-led ground game and a wideout rotation of A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and Adam Humphries are of course the more obvious threats to Smith's usage, but Firkser himself has proven to be a highly effective pass catcher in the NFL. It's hard to explain why Firkser is so good – he was credited with only a 4.75-second 40 and 31.5-inch vertical out of Harvard – but understand, Firkser is in fact good. He posted big numbers at Harvard, including a senior season where he provided 29.1 percent of their receiving yardage (702 yards and seven touchdowns in 10 games), and he's been highly effective as an NFL pass catcher, too. On 432 snaps to this point in his NFL career, including playoffs, Firkser drew 54 targets and caught 36 receptions for 474 yards and four touchdowns. That's a catch rate of 66.7 percent at 8.8 yards per target.

With all that noted, here is the most important Firkser detail as it relates to Smith: Firkser very rarely blocks. Whereas Smith blocked on 27 percent of his passing snaps last year, Firkser blocked on only six percent of his. You may have seen theories of a 2020 Smith breakout that make reference to Delanie Walker's departure from the Titans, but you should be skeptical of them. Walker drew an enviable 31 targets on 201 snaps last year, and it would indeed mean a lot for Smith's chances if he secures that usage, but the problem in the meantime is that we have reason to believe that Firkser will claim most of that usage. Walker's role, like Firkser, entailed basically no blocking. Walker and Smith played different positions in 2019, and Firkser was the only one all year to play Walker's reps otherwise. It's not just in the pass blocking rates, it's in the ADOT – Firkser (9.2) and Walker (7.5) ran their routes far downfield compared to Smith's 5.0 ADOT.

Pruitt is the most easily dismissed of the three, as he's basically a blocking specialist – he blocked 44 percent of the time on passing snaps last year – but even he is a real drain on the fantasy upside of Smith and Firkser. Pruitt played 448 snaps last year, and the Titans sure do seem to value him as a blocker. His playing time tends to rise as the Titans enter more run-heavy game scripts, which is to say a Smith or Firkser investor should hope that Henry and the Titans run game fail, or at least hope that the Titans defense fails and forces the offense to throw more than they'd like.

The Tennessee defense looks just fine, though, and it seems like it will take a Henry injury for him to slow down. Even if these scenarios occur, Smith would likely need to claim a sizable portion of Walker's 201 snaps from 2019 to capitalize, because Brown, Davis, and even Humphries all probably qualify as underused as pass catchers. Rather than releasing a bountiful flood of fantasy usage directly to Smith, a diversion from Henry would be liable to get channeled into a committee of qualified pass catchers.

With a recent NFFC/BestBall10 ADP of 141.81/131.89, Smith's current price tag implies plenty of hope and concern alike. As the TE17 off the board, the risk appears well understood, yet the hopes for upside have him going far ahead of players like Blake Jarwin (160.19/146.68) and Chris Herndon (167.31/159.96), who I'd argue warrant similar projections. Jarwin has his upside capped by the presences of Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Ceedee Lamb, but that increased competition for usage is offset by the greater passing volume projected for Dak Prescott relative to Ryan Tannehill. Herndon is in the worst offense of the three, but he also has a clear route for the greatest share of their respective offenses and is beyond questioning as a talent. A shift in conditions could well make Smith the premier breakout tight end of 2020 – his talent is more than enough to do so – but Jarwin and Herndon arguably need no more accommodation, and at much lower prices.

 
INDIANAPOLIS TIGHT ENDS

Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox, Trey Burton

For the last two years the Colts were conceptualized as a two-TE offense, especially for fantasy purposes, because both Doyle and Eric Ebron were household names for anyone hunting in the middle tiers for fantasy production at tight end. Ebron has since walked to Pittsburgh in free agency, and the Colts have done little otherwise to replace him aside from signing Burton, who burned out with injuries after signing a four-year, $32 million deal with the Bears in 2018. Because Burton is held in little regard at this point and the Colts added second-round pick Michael Pittman at wide receiver, it seems that the fantasy markets anticipate more of a one-tight end, three-wide receiver offense from the Colts going forward. That may or may not be correct, but if it's incorrect then there might be late-round value to be found here.

Doyle (154.5 NFFC, 143.8 BB10) is the only Colts tight end of mainstream fantasy concern at this point, and his ADP is indeed quite healthy for a player who struggled to 43 receptions for 448 yards and four touchdowns last year on 72 targets and 811 snaps (59.7 percent catch rate, 6.2 YPT). We know Doyle is capable of better, and the struggles of the Colts passing game no doubt held him back, but he still produced below baseline (59.8 percent completed, 6.5 YPA). If that production is any indication, then if the Colts go into 2020 with no pass-catching complement to Doyle in mind at tight end, it would be to forfeit the general possibility of tight end pass-catching production.

That sits wrong with me for some reason. Even if Doyle produces better in 2020, it would still be weird if the Colts didn't find some replacement scheme for Ebron's production. Underwhelming candidates or not, it seems like Burton or Alie-Cox almost has to do something with the void afforded by the exit of Ebron, who drew 162 targets on 962 snaps the last two years, almost never blocking. Doyle doesn't seem like a candidate to absorb much or any of it.

If we're talking about a role most similar to Ebron's – all routes, no blocking – then Burton would seem like the most intuitive replacement. Burton, after all, is all routes, no blocking. This transfer of usage from Ebron to Burton is far from assured, however. For as much as Ebron and Burton both inhabit the 'All Routes' type of tight end category, their applications are still different. At 6-foot-2, 238 pounds Burton is basically an upjumped fullback – an h-back at most. Ebron, by contrast, has a perfectly typical tight end build at 6-foot-4, 253 pounds. Even if Burton secures Ebron's snaps and targets, in other words, he still wouldn't draw the same type of targets. The plug-and-play idea doesn't work here – rather than an easy fix, replacing Ebron with Burton would require a reconfiguration of the Colts offense to some extent.

If replacing Ebron will require a reconfiguration even if Burton is the replacement, then it would be true to say that it would require no more reconfiguration to feature Alie-Cox than Burton. At 6-foot-6, 267 pounds, Alie-Cox is a hulking contrast to Burton, and to this point has mostly been a blocker. Whereas Ebron rarely blocked, Alie-Cox blocked on a whopping 34 percent of his passing snaps last year. On his 357 snaps he drew just 10 targets, and in his 241 snaps in 2018 he drew just 13. Curiously, though, Alie-Cox caught 15 of those 23 targets for 226 yards and two touchdowns, good for a catch rate of 65.2 percent at 9.8 yards per target.

The basic tension that I see here is this: one of Burton or Alie-Cox almost necessarily need to play a snap count similar to those logged by Ebron, yet the ADP markets acknowledge no such thing. Burton goes undrafted in BestBall10s and only 297.08 (TE54) in NFFC drafts, most of which presumably occur in their 35-round best ball format. Alie-Cox goes typically goes undrafted in both, though in NFFC best ball he occasionally goes to the tune of TE63 (304.77). Alie-Cox and Ebron combined for 680 snaps last year, drawing 62 targets.

The tricky part here is guessing which of Burton or Alie-Cox might prove useful, if either. Burton is probably the favorite, because he projects for very little blocking and might be an above average pass-catching threat, especially underneath. Burton's traits are similar to those of Jordan Reed, right on down to the two playing wildcat quarterback in their respective college careers at Florida. This generally means that Burton offers a running back-like skill set in these reps, and if that's what Frank Reich is looking for then there isn't any realistic competition. Although Burton's profile is low these days, he was still an above-baseline producer for the Bears when healthy, catching 71.1 percent of his targets at 7.5 YPT in a 2018 Bears offense that completed 67.2 percent of its passes at 7.3 YPA.

There's a chance, though, that Reich might not have much use for the shifty underneath functions Burton can offer. Parris Campbell and Nyheim Hines already offer the Colts speedy underneath threats, and it's possible that Burton functions as little more than the third in line for those tasks. Alie-Cox, moreover, has the athleticism to offer more routes than the Colts have asked from him in the past. Check out this article from Colts beat writer Zach Hicks to read more about Alie-Cox's background going into 2020.

The short version of the story is this: Alie-Cox played basketball rather than football in college, at Virginia Commonwealth. At 6-foot-6, 262 pounds he was credited with a 4.75-second 40 time, 35.5-inch vertical, and 7.25-second three-cone drill. This gives Alie-Cox an athletic profile similar to tight ends like Cole Kmet and Martellus Bennett. There's a possibility that Alie-Cox has been a blocking specialist to this point merely because he was still developing as a tight end while mastering a sport he didn't play in college. If Alie-Cox's blocking role was a temporary condition, then we otherwise have reason to believe he has the athleticism to thrive with expanded pass-catching responsibilities.

Quite pertinently, if Alie-Cox is granted more target opportunities, he would be a better candidate than Burton to imitate the routes specifically ran by Ebron. Ebron's fantasy utility was almost entirely propelled by his touchdown production, where his role as Indianapolis' red-zone specialist yielded 16 touchdowns on 162 targets. Ebron was largely a jumpball guy for the Colts, and Alie-Cox is a better candidate for those functions than Burton. Not just that, but Alie-Cox has actually been exceptionally good after the catch to this point, generating 111 yards after the catch on 15 receptions (7.4 YAC per catch). With plus blocking and evidence of upside both as a jumpball and YAC target, Alie-Cox seems to have a lot going in his favor despite his obscure origins.

The Colts averaged about 1,495 tight end snaps per year over the past two years. If we project Doyle for 800 snaps, it leaves something like 650 for Alie-Cox and Burton to split after Ebron and Alie-Cox combined for 685 last year. Rather than Alie-Cox getting 10 targets and Burton getting 52 like in the Alie-Cox/Ebron example from last year, we might expect the Colts to extend Alie-Cox's audition as a pass catcher, leaving both players with a baseline projection of 30 targets. That wouldn't be enough for Burton to work in most fantasy leagues, but it would leave a slight window for Alie-Cox so long as he secures that Ebron red-zone role in the process. Tight ends with low target volume are rarely useful in fantasy football, but if there's one type of tight end who can theoretically make it work, it would be a red-zone specialist who produces touchdowns above expectation.

To summarize, Doyle has a somewhat obvious high-floor, low-ceiling utility, which may or may not prove useful at his current price. I'm a bit leery myself, because Doyle doesn't have obvious means of outplaying the team baseline in efficiency terms, and he might draw targets at a career-low rate now that the Colts are relatively loaded at receiver with all of Campbell, Pittman, T.Y. Hilton, and Zach Pascal posing real threats to the defense. 

Alie-Cox is far more risky and basically can't be drafted outside of very deep leagues, but his uniquely good YAC and red-zone projections give him the theoretical means of outproducing what otherwise might be a problematic passing game baseline under Rivers. The possibility of high target volume is basically out of the question for Alie-Cox, so he'll need to catch touchdowns to be of any use. With that said, I plan on drafting him near the end of the 35-round NFFC best ball league I'm currently in.

Burton is the most proven pass catcher of the group, but with a fullback frame his lack of blocking utility makes it imperative that he draws targets at a high per-snap rate, because he doesn't project for many snaps generally. I'm personally pessimistic of his chances for said per-snap target volume, because Burton's pass-catching functions can be matched or exceeded by players like Campbell, Hines, and Doyle. Alie-Cox is starting from a lower place as a pass catcher, but his cumulative abilities are much more likely to prove unique, making for a higher snap count upside. Burton might be more likely to provide a mid-range outcome, in other words, but his mid range is not likely to be useful anyway, while Alie-Cox has at least a theoretical high-range outcome that Burton and Doyle probably can't match. Alie-Cox will be on my FAAB speed dial at the very least, and I'd like to add him in dynasty leagues in some cases.