DraftKings College Football: Week 11 Main Slate

Welcome to the Week 11 Main Slate breakdown for DraftKings, where we have an 11-gamer featuring some of the biggest matchups of the season. Below you'll find a cheat sheet chock full of useful data for your own research purposes along with our suite of DFS Tools. You'll also find my breakdown of the Alabama-LSU matchup in addition to my favorite plays at each position. As always you're free to ask anything in the comments or hit us up on the Rotowire Discord channel. 

Cheat Sheet

Link to above data

DFS Tools

Stats

Targets

Team Trends

Defense vs. Position

Team Rankings

DFS Primer

Lineup Optimizer

Value Report

Podcast

Much Adieu about Bama-LSU

This game always gets hyped as one of the best regular season matchups every year, but the end result has been one-sided since the early part of the decade. Alabama is riding an eight-game winning streak in this series dating back to 2012 and delivered a 29-0 drubbing of the Tigers in Death Valley last season. This year has a different feel, though. In a series where these teams have combined for more than 34 points just once in the last five years, we are looking at an over/under of 65 for Saturday's matchup in Tuscaloosa. How is that possible?

Well, the Tigers really have changed their stripes, going from 30th in offensive S&P+ in 2018 to third in 2019. The difference is two-fold; Joe Brady has brought a philosophical shift to take the LSU offense into this century while Joe Burrow has responded to the new system to become a legitimate Heisman contender. Long story short: LSU can score points now, and that hasn't been the case in its recent games against Alabama.

On the Alabama side, it comes down to Tua Tagovailoa and how close he can be to 100 percent after undergoing a "Tightrope" procedure to accelerate the healing of his high-ankle sprain. He's expected to be a go Saturday, which explains why Alabama is close to a touchdown favorite. 

Bottom line here is that offense dominates the narrative on both sides, with LSU's Burrow and Alabama's Tagovailoa headlining explosive offenses that feature receiving corps with multiple future NFL wideouts on each side. In the past most of the attention would be drawn to the likes of Tyrann Mathieu, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jonathan Allen, Devin White and other standout defenders. The defenses are still strong on each side, but we should be treated to offensive fireworks that are unprecedented in this rivalry. 

In terms of my DFS approach to this game, I'll be relatively light on it for the most part. A game stack with Tagovailoa and Burrow in the quarterback and Superflex spots is an interesting route to take, and it's doable given some of the value available at receiver in other games. If I had to choose just one quarterback from this game, I'd side with Burrow knowing that he's closer to 100 percent healthy and arguably playing the best of any quarterback in the nation to this point. 

Solving the receivers will be tricky, too. With LSU, Justin Jefferson ($7,000), Ja'Marr Chase ($6,900) and Terrace Marshall Jr. ($6,200) all have appeal at their given prices, but it will be difficult to fit more than one of them into a lineup that doesn't make major concessions at either quarterback or running back. Same goes for Alabama to an extent, although we're seeing low figures on Jerry Jeudy ($6,500), DeVonta Smith ($6,400) and Henry Ruggs III ($5,900). Are the Alabama guys cheaper because of matchup, Tua's health, or both? I'll have exposure to both receiving corps to varying degrees in my lineups Saturday, but I'm not as inclined to go heavy on this game as I am on some others on the slate. 

Position by Position 

Quarterback

Justin Fields, Ohio State ($9,000) vs. Maryland

The Buckeyes are 44-point favorites Saturday, against a real life team that plays in the Big Ten. Amazing. It goes to show how powerful this Ohio State team is with Fields at the helm. 

Fields averages the seventh-most fantasy points per game (33.1) among quarterbacks and his 33 total touchdowns are tied with Joe Burrow for second in the country behind only Jalen Hurts. With a spread this big, there's legitimate concern about Fields playing long enough to hit value for his high price tag. I'm backing Fields here, though. This is a quick-strike offense that could hang five touchdowns before halftime. Fields hasn't gone for less than three total touchdowns in any game this season and I'm skeptical that a Maryland defense that ranks 61st in S&P+ and gives up 281 passing yards per game to Big Ten opponents can do anything to snap that streak. He may be expensive, but Fields is well worth it. And there are enough lower-priced quarterbacks to help offset Fields' cost.

Shane Buechele, SMU ($7,700) vs. East Carolina

It was said plenty of times on the pod this week but I can't stress it enough. East Carolina is bad. Its defense is the worst on the slate, clocking in at 106th in S&P+. The run defense is the true weak link for the Pirates (more on that later) but Buechele will be able to operate against this group. 

Buechele has attempted at least 38 passes in each of his last four games, with two games of 50 or more attempts. So the volume shouldn't be an issue here. And he has 13 passing touchdowns in that span. Yes, six of them came in one game, but he's consistently putting points on the board for the Mustangs. The absence of Reggie Roberson shouldn't steer you away from Buechele, either. Using James Proche or emerging red zone threat Kylen Granson

Skylar Thompson, Kansas State ($6,300) at Texas  

The price is right and so is the matchup. Since starting conference play, Thompson has averaged 24.3 DraftKings points per game and is developing into one of the more dangerous rushing threats of any quarterback in the Power 5. Thompson is tied for third among all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns since Week 5 with eight and he's got 267 rushing yards in that span as well. In facing Texas, he gets a matchup against the 86th-ranked defense in S&P+ that coughs up 465 total yards per game, ranking 118th in the nation. The Texas pass defense is particularly bad, giving up a slate-high 305 passing yards per game. 

Ideally, Thompson would be able to exploit this like the other quarterbacks the Longhorns have faced, but he's not a polished passer and doesn't have a talented receiving corps. So while Thompson may not light up this secondary, there's reason to believe this Longhorn defense is shaky enough in the backend to where he could have one of his better showings as a passer for the whole season on Saturday. Tack on the likelihood of Thompson doing damage and we have a viable superflex quarterback under $6,500. I'll take it. 

Jayden Daniels, Arizona State vs. USC

Daniels hit a wall against some of the PAC-12's defenses earlier in the season, low-lighted by an abysmal 0.8-point performance against Utah on the road. The freshman responded by carving up UCLA for 267 yards and two touchdowns through the air and adding another 67 yards and a touchdown on the ground the following week. 

Now Daniels is coming off the bye and gets to face a middling USC defense that ranks 49th in defensive S&P+ and was just shredded at home by Oregon to the tune of 56 points. We can't expect that level of offensive fireworks from Daniels and the Sun Devils, but there's reason to believe Daniels can outperform his modest price tag. 

Running Back

Cam Akers, Florida State ($7,800) at Boston College

Last week I recommended fading Akers in favor of AJ Dillon, who got his turn to torch Syracuse. This week I'll reverse course and go Akers, who is playing against Dillon's Eagles and is not only the cheaper of the two, but also is also looking at the easier matchup. 

Boston College gives up the third-most rushing yards per game on the slate (185.3) and Akers effectively has a monopoly on the Florida State backfield, holding a 58 percent share of the carries. So it'll be Akers seeing the bulk of the work against one of the nation's worst run defenses. Don't let last week's dud against Miami steer you away from Akers this week. 

Xavier Jones, SMU ($7,200) vs. East Carolina

Last week's dud could be a blessing in disguise, because if Jones had racked up his usual 27.4 DraftKings points against Memphis, there's almost no way we'd see him at this low of a price point. He hadn't been below $7,400 any time he was on a DraftKings slate before this week and now we can use that to our advantage going up against East Carolina. 

The Pirates give up a slate-high 204 rushing yards per game on 4.81 yards per carry. With SMU favored by 21 points, the run game should be on full display once we reach the second half. That's not to go against the earlier Buechele recommendation, though. SMU runs 83.2 plays per game, which is more than enough for the run and the pass game to rack up the desired production against this East Carolina defense. Jones is tied with Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor for third in the nation in rushing touchdowns (15) and his 19.56 carries per game rank inside the top-15 nationwide. Look for a bounce back from him Saturday.

Eno Benjamin, Arizona State ($6,800) vs. USC

USC is coughing up 184 rushing yards per game on 4.77 YPC and now gets to face a rested Benjamin on Saturday. Benjamin has fallen short of preseason expectations overall but he's still #OnPace for another 1,000-yard season. He's had some success against much tougher defenses than USC's, too. Benjamin racked up 104 rushing yards on 15 carries against Utah, which has arguably the best run defense in the nation and allows a FBS-low 56.0 rushing yards per game. A matchup against USC when Benjamin is averaging just under 20 carries per game in conference play should result in an active day for him with efficient production to back it up. 

Lamical Perine, Florida ($5,900) vs. Vanderbilt

I would not want to be Vanderbilt this weekend. Going to the Swamp to face the Gators coming off a tough loss is a tough enough draw, but when you're Vanderbilt, doubly so. Now, Perine doesn't have much in his game log that pops out. He's been held under 50 yards four times while posting just one 100-yard outing. What is clear is that Perine is the No.1 back for the Gators, owning a 38 percent share of the rushes while no other running back has more than a 13 percent share. So this suggests Perine will get the bulk of the cracks at this Vanderbilt defense that allows 202.1 rushing yards per game and 5.21 YPC. Perine's lack of standout production plus his non-bargain bin price tag should keep ownership reasonable, making him a strong tournament play with this matchup. 

Keontay Ingram, Texas ($5,900) vs. Kansas State

Ingram isn't so different from Perine in that he's the nominal starter for a premier program but hasn't quite his stride. He's at 494 yards and four touchdowns on 98 carries through eight games, and has been active in the passing game with 19 catches for 156 yards and a score on 24 targets. A look at Texas' Team Trends shows that he has as many carries as quarterback Sam Ehlinger, which can drive DFS players away from Ingram. That's fair. But Ingram does seem to be putting some distance between himself and Roschon Johnson in terms of workload out of the backfield. That's an important bit of information, especially this week with the Longhorns facing a Kansas State defense that gives up 5.27 YPC, which is 121st in the nation. Once you get over the idea of Ingram seeing an AJ Dillon-esque workload and focus on him being the top option in the Texas backfield against a soft run defense, Ingram becomes an appealing option under $6,000 that could separate your lineups from the field. 

Others to Consider

Master Teague, Ohio State ($5,000) vs. Maryland -- Ohio State won't need to ride J.K. Dobbins for more than 20 carries, and with this game projected to have plenty of garbage time, Teague is set up for a solid workload for a No.2 running back. He has seen double-digit carries in six of the last seven games and is averaging 6.9 YPC in that span. 

Wide Receiver

James Proche ($7,300) and Kylen Granson ($4,600), SMU vs. East Carolina

If you're leaning more towards the SMU passing game than the run game, start with these two. Proche has the most targets per game (12.2) and touchdowns (10) of anyone on the slate, so in a PPR format, that's the type of asset you can build a lineup around. He's not as explosive as some of the other top-tier receivers with just 7.6 YPT, but the volume and touchdown upside offset that concern. 

With Granson, we have a player who has stepped up in a big way since Reggie Roberson suffered an injury. Granson, a tight end with receiver-level athleticism, has 10 catches for 153 yards and three touchdowns on 16 targets in the last two games and is the No.2 target behind Proche as long as Roberson is out. That type of target volume in an explosive offense for just $4,600 is something to heavily consider when bargain shopping at receiver this weekend. 

Jerry Jeudy, Alabama ($6,500) vs. LSU

We're seeing Jeudy's price bottom out, even after he posted his best DraftKings performance since Week 2 in his last game. Yes it was against Arkansas, but Jeudy still torched the Hogs with Mac Jones as his quarterback. Looking at Jeudy's season, the frustration is due in part to the ridiculously high standard he set in 2018 when he posted 12.6 YPT and 14 touchdowns on 104 targets. That's a high bar to clear. Now that Jeudy has been merely good with 9.0 YPT and eight touchdowns on 78 targets, the buzz has quieted down. Seven catches for 91 yards and no scores against Tennessee and Texas A&M can do that. 

I'm ready to buy back in at this price. Jeudy still leads the team in targets per game at 9.5 and it stands to reason that he'll continue as Tua's most trusted target in this game, which is far and away the Tide's toughest test of the season to this point. At $6,500 with a high volume of quality targets, Jeudy is just too cheap to write off even against LSU.

Chris Olave, Ohio State ($5,900) vs. Maryland

This is a tournament play as Ohio State could empty its bench as far as receivers go, but Olave has been a constant for the Buckeyes all year, even in blowouts. Olave has just under a 20 percent target share and averages 10.3 YPT and his eight receiving touchdowns are twice as many as any other Buckeye. He might be a better move on a non-PPR site, but Olave's touchdown upside in a soft matchup is enough for me to plug him into some of my lineups.

C.J. Johnson, East Carolina ($5,500) at SMU

The 12 catches for 283 yards and a touchdown on 21 targets against Cincinnati admittedly caught my eye here, but Johnson is more than just a one-hit wonder. Since Week 6, Johnson is averaging 13.0 targets per game and 11.0 YPT. No one else on East Carolina is over 7.0 targets per game since that point. Getting to face SMU in a game script where East Carolina will be trailing sets up perfectly for Johnson to get peppered with targets. There's also the matter of SMU allowing 279 passing yards and a slate-high 2.7 passing touchdowns per game, making this an immensely favorable matchup for Johnson. $5,500 is too good to pass up for Johnson this week. 

Others to consider

Freddie Swain, Florida ($5,500) vs. Vanderbilt : Swain is seeing eight targets per game over the last four games and draws a matchup against Vandy. I'll be attacking this price range a fair bit this week and Swain is flying under the radar more than Collin Johnson ($5,400) of Texas or Tre Turner ($5,500), both of whom are in play as well. 

Taye Barber, TCU ($4,200) vs. Baylor : Tough matchup but Barber is averaging 8.0 targets per game over his last three outings. If Max Duggan is healthy and good to go, Barber will be a viable option Saturday.

Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State ($5,800) vs. USC : Owns a team-high 26 percent target share while averaging 13.0 YPT. Seeing him under $6,000 with a soft matchup makes him worth a look, especially if you're using Jayden Daniels at quarterback.