College Football DFS: New Year's Day Slate

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Published on December 31, 2020

Happy New Year and welcome to our New Year's Day Main Slate breakdown. We have four games on tap, including both semifinal matchups in the College Football Playoff. Outside of the Alabama-Notre Dame and Clemson-Ohio State showdowns, we have Georgia facing Cincinnati in the Peach Bowl to kick off the day and Auburn-Northwestern in the Citrus Bowl an hour later. The playoff games have the higher totals with both games expected to have more than 60 points scored while the non-playoff games are expected to be more of the defensive battle variety.

Nonetheless, it's a fun and varied slate with a surprising amount of paths to lineup builds for just a four-gamer. Without further adieu, let's dive into the New Year's Day action.

DFS Tools

Position-by-Position Breakdown

Quarterback

JT Daniels, Georgia ($7,300 DK; $8,300 FD) vs. Cincinnati

This will be Daniels' toughest test to date in a Georgia uniform as Cincinnati is formidable on defense, checking in with the third-best adjusted defense rating by our metrics. The Bearcats allow just 16.0 points per game (6th) and have made explosive offenses, like SMU or Memphis, look pedestrian. That said, Daniels is likely the best quarterback Cincinnati has faced all year, Georgia's offensive line is the best Cincinnati has faced all year, and receivers like George Pickens and Kearis Jackson have a talent edge over these corners. If

Nonetheless, it's a fun and varied slate with a surprising amount of paths to lineup builds for just a four-gamer. Without further adieu, let's dive into the New Year's Day action.

DFS Tools

Position-by-Position Breakdown

Quarterback

JT Daniels, Georgia ($7,300 DK; $8,300 FD) vs. Cincinnati

In terms of exposure to this game versus the rest of the slate, this one has the second-lowest total (50.5), ahead of only Auburn-Northwestern (43.5). This won't be a game to go heavy on, and the two playoff games stand to have more offensive fireworks. Still, Daniels is a nice value on both sites that frees up salary to pay up elsewhere. Again, this hinges on your trust of Daniels in this matchup, but if you give him the lean over Cincinnati, he should be among your considerations at quarterback. He is completing 66.7 percent of his passes at 10.4 YPA with a 9:1 TD:INT in three starts for the Dawgs.

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson ($8,800 DK; $11,000 FD) vs. Ohio State

Picking between the Big 3 at quarterback is maybe the most important lineup decision you face on this slate. Lawrence, Justin Fields and Mac Jones all have their merits at their respective price points. Fields checks in at a bit of a bargain on DK following a shaky Big Ten Title game showing that also involved a thumb injury. Jones has been nothing short of automatic this season and has the best complement of weapons in the nation. But Lawrence seems like he has found another level, and that's a scary development for the non-Clemson playoff teams. Lawrence shredded Notre Dame's vaunted defense for 322 yards and two touchdowns through the air in the ACC championship game and added 90 yards and a score on the ground. Now he gets to face an Ohio State defense that has struggled at times this season and may not be as good, on balance, as Notre Dame's.

This will be a competitive, back-and-forth game and that means a full four quarters of Lawrence. When he's playing at his current level, it's difficult to justify fading him.

Running Back

The running back discussion starts with Alabama's Najee Harris ($9,200 DK; $11,200 FD) because your decision to roster or fade him changes everything about your lineup build. Go with Harris and you have the clear-cut No.1 running back on the board, but it also eats up a large chunk of your salary and forces you to go bargain hunting elsewhere, especially if you're paying up at QB. Fade Harris and you risk missing out on massive production that you don't make up elsewhere at running back. The question is whether you can make a strong enough lineup with your savings to justify going sans Harris. I'll likely have Harris in most, but not all, of my lineups but if I had to make just one, it'd have Harris in it.

Elsewhere at running back, we have...

Zamir White, Georgia ($5,900 DK; $8,700 FD) vs Cincinnati

White is the fifth RB on the board on DraftKings, making him slightly more appealing on that site but he is still viable on FanDuel. James Cook's likely absence should open up more carries for White, who has 25 carries for 210 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. White gets a tough matchup, but his decreased salary lowers the bar of what is needed for him to hit value and he also figures to get a boost in carries.

If you're looking for a bargain-bin option at running back, Georgia has a few options. Kenny McIntosh ($3,900 DK; $5,900 DK) stands to see an increased share of the workload and has been efficient all season with a 5.7 YPC mark over 42 rushing attempts. Kendall Milton ($3,000 DK; $4,500 FD) is a wildcard who has been out with an MCL sprain but could be pressed into action if available. Milton has shown flashes as a freshman, averaging 5.9 YPC over 31 carries.

Tank Bigsby, Auburn ($5,600 DK; $7,400 FD) vs. Northwestern

Auburn's ground game flows almost entirely through Bigsby, who has a commanding 38 percent rushing share while no other Tiger back has more than a 14 percent share. Bigsby showed he was healthy in his last time out, taking 26 carries for 192 yards against Mississippi State after having three weeks of limited workloads due to a hip issue.

He draws a matchup against Northwestern, which just coughed up over 300 yards to Ohio State's Trey Sermon in the Big Ten Title Game. I'm not drawing any direct comparisons between this Auburn team and an Ohio State team that needed a win to make the playoff, but it shows that Northwestern can be attacked on the ground. With Bigsby checking in with explosiveness and a reliable rushing share, he is one of the premier non-Harris running backs on the board Friday.

Cam Porter, Northwestern ($4,900 DK; $6,900 FD) vs. Auburn

Porter has come on strong down the stretch with back-to-back games of over 40 percent of the Northwestern carries. In those two games, Porter has combined for 40 carries, 203 rushing yards, and three rushing touchdowns while adding four receptions for 18 yards. Porter gets to face an Auburn team that is playing for an interim coach and may not be particularly energized to stop the run. Auburn coughs up 4.3 YPC, which is not adjusted for sack yardage, and four teams have eclipsed 200 rushing yards on the Plainsmen this season. Northwestern will lean on Porter for the bulk of its carries and there's reason to believe that the freshman can deliver against an SEC opponent.

Wide Receiver

Much like Najee Harris and the running backs, Devonta Smith is the keystone of the wide receiver board for Friday's slate. Smith is arguably the best player in all of college football; he has caught 98 of 124 targets at 12.2 YPT and 17 of his catches have gone for touchdowns. To maintain that efficiency with that level of volume is nothing short of Herculean. He is nearly $3,000 more expensive than the night-highest receiver on FanDuel and nearly $2K clear of the pack on DraftKings. Finding value elsewhere at receiver is fairly doable on this slate, so even though there's some sticker shock with Smith compared to the other wideouts, it's possible to fit him comfortably into your lineup.

Cornell Powell, Clemson ($5,900 DK; $7,100 FD) vs. Ohio State

Amari Rodgers has the higher target share and is likely the safer play, but it's Powell's downfield ability that makes him my preferred Clemson receiver for this slate. Powell has a 15 percent target share, a 67 percent catch rate, and a team-best 11.1 YPT mark. He has 17 catches of at least 15 yards and eight catches of at least 25 yards on 45 total receptions. Powell stands to be one of Trevor Lawrence's top targets against an Ohio State secondary that is not what it was a year ago at this time. Powell and the Clemson receivers have the edge in this setup.

Looking further down the board but sticking with Clemson, we have E.J. Williams profiling as a strong option. The freshman is starting to break out and live up to his billing as one of the best receivers in the 2020 recruiting cycle. Williams racked up four catches for 80 yards and a score against Notre Dame and also drew a season-high seven targets, showing that he has the trust of his quarterback in big games. He's $4,300 on DK and $5,800 on FD but I'd take him straight up over some other receivers with higher salaries. Look for the freshman to be a factor against the Buckeyes.

George Pickens, Georgia ($6,100 DK; $7,200 FD) vs. Cincinnati

Pickens is the headliner of the Georgia receiving corps with an average target share of 22 percent and plenty of talent to go with that volume. He finally put it all together in his most recent game, hauling in five of nine targets for 126 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Missouri. Pickens and the other Georgia pass-catchers are in play thanks to JT Daniels being at the helm of the offense, and while some of the other Bulldogs could help save you some coin, Pickens is the most talented of the bunch and is clearly on the same page with his quarterback.

Seth Williams, Auburn ($5,000 DK; $6,200 FD) vs. Northwestern

It's easy to be intimidated by Northwestern's pass defense -- a sentence I definitely knew I would utter at some point coming into the season -- but it shouldn't completely steer you off of the Auburn pass catchers. Northwestern allows an FBS-low 5.0 YPA to opposing quarterbacks, which is half a yard better than the second-best team in that metric. So this may not be a high-efficiency game for Williams. However, Anthony Schwartz's decision to opt out of this game could send Williams' target share skyrocketing. Williams already has a team-high 30 percent target share and Schwartz was checking in at 28 percent. Now, Williams won't absorb all of the vacant targets, but he now has a double-digit target game as his floor. That bumps his value on DK and his price tag on FD is a bargain now as well. Eli Stove ($4,100 DK; $5,600 FD) would be the only other Auburn receiver I'd seriously consider as he could see a target bump in Schwartz's absence. An Auburn passing game stack isn't the call here, but a one-off player at a reasonable salary who projects for 10+ targets is a fine option.

Other suggestions

Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, Northwestern ($4,800 DK; $6,800 FD) vs. Auburn

Chiaokhiao-Bowman is the player to target in the Northwestern passing game. He sports a 28 percent target share and leads the team in receiving touchdowns with four. Auburn is pedestrian against the pass with a 7.3 YPA allowed. Look for Chiaokhiao-Bowman to lead the Northwestern pass-catchers in most, if not all, major receiving categories Friday.

Javon McKinley, Notre Dame ($4,900 DK; $6,500 FD) vs. Alabama

Notre Dame isn't going to be able to just sit on the ball and hope to stay within striking distance. Not with Alabama's quick-strike offense that can score touchdowns seemingly at will. With that, the Irish will need to get Ian Book going and the best path to that is through throwing to McKinley. The 6-foot-2 receiver is Notre Dame's primary downfield threat, averaging 17.4 YPR and 12.2 YPT. He's the No.1 option in the Irish offense and if the Irish are trailing, which they will be, McKinley will be very busy. McKinley may not have a great ceiling in this matchup but he has a target floor that few others offer in his end of the player pool.