DFS College Basketball: Thursday Preview

Thursday's Sweet 16 kicks off with two drastically different styles across timeslots. The early games have much higher totals, while the later slots are going to be faded heavily by most casual players, and likely many cash gamers. It's a challenging slate to navigate -- one where balance over studs and duds could work well. With a little luck, we'll pick the right options in the lower-scoring nightcaps and help everyone cash in in some capacity. We'll likely name every rotational player here, for better or worse, and this largely turned into another preview of the games themselves. As such, I'd encourage checking out our Sweet 16 Regional previews for dissenting opinions.

Top Players

Brandon Clarke, G/F, Gonzaga ($9,500 DK, $9,200 FD): Clarke likely won many of his owners some coin in the Round of 32, dropping a whopping 64 DraftKings points on Baylor, his second 50+ point performance in his last six outings. That upside, paired with a 30+ point floor isn't cheap, and I don't love the matchup with FSU capable of throwing lots of different bodies Clarke's way. But I also think the 'Noles keep this game close, which will leave Clarke on the court almost all night. There's little reason not to build a lineup around him.

Grant Williams, F, Tennessee ($9,400 DK, $9,100 FD): Williams snapped out of a funk in Sunday's game against Iowa, providing 43.9 FanDuel points after going for 25.6 or fewer in three of his previous four. He did so thanks in large part to three blocks and four steals, something that doesn't seem repeatable. The matchup does seem preferred, as Purdue starts three guards and only 7-foot-3 Matt Haarms (see below) will be clogging the paint.

Jarrett Culver, G, Texas Tech ($9,300 DK, $8,600 FD): Culver has been automatic since Valentine's Day, averaging 40.4 FDP/43.4 DKP in nine games since. The game's lower point projection is of little concern, as the Red Raiders pace has labored all year long and Culver still produces nightly. Michigan will obviously make an effort to make someone else beat them, but given his form, I'd fade Culver, especially at a moderate FD discount, at your own risk. 

Carsen Edwards, G, Purdue ($9,200 DK, $8,700 FD): For as brilliant as Edwards was in the Round of 32, hitting 9-of-16 3-pointers en route to 42 points against Villanova, you could argue his 26-point, seven-rebound, four-assist, two-steal game in the opening round against ODU was just as impressive, with Purdue scoring just 61 points as a team. He's dropped 21 points or more in six of his last seven outings, but can be a bit point dependent. If you're buying the tournament hot hand, Edwards is where you're building around, but his volume scoring may lend itself to more of a safe floor than a high ceiling.

Secondary Plays

Value is somewhat out the window at this stage, as rotations appear very set. Rather than regurgitate the same names at sub $5,500 pricing, we'll look at team's second (or first) options that can come at a discount and provide nice balance to a well-rounded lineup.

Mfiondu Kabengele, F, Florida State ($5,900 DK, $6,400 FD): I'm admittedly not following the DK pricing matrix here, as Kabengele put up 39.75 and 37.5 points there, but has seen a $200 price decrease entering Thursday. I understand Gonzaga has a formidable front line, but at this price, Kabengele has been within two points of returning 4x value in each of his last eight games.

Terance Mann, G, Florida State ($5,600 DK, $6,800 FD): Mann is going to flirt with must-own status on DK at this price, and he's someone I'd still target rather than fade.  He's went for 34.5 and 36.0 DK points last weekend, and 25.0 or more in two of three ACC tournament games, and the 'Noles are relying more on their studs than during the regular season. He's clearly less attractive at FanDuel, but still easily capable of returning 4x value. 

Matt Haarms, F, Purdue ($6,400 DK, $6,600 FD): Haarms has enjoyed a terrific close to the year, averaging 30.0 DKP over his final eight compared to 21.9 on the year. He looks like a matchup nightmare for the Vols, who have just 6-foot-11, 215 pound Kyle Alexander as a rotational option standing taller than 6-foot-7. Haarms goes 7-foot-3, 250 pounds, and while he has just one double-double all year, that should be the level of expectation Thursday.

Charles Matthews, G, Michigan ($5,500 DK, $6,100 FD): DK continues to taunt us with below-value pricing. Matthews was eased into action in the B1G 10 Tournament after missing time with an ankle injury, but averaged 36 minutes last weekend, taking 22 shots, averaging 32.1 DKP/31.0 FDP in the process. He's certainly volatile, but the ceiling is enormous for this price range.

Game Breakdowns

As we noted in the intro, there is a remarkable contrast in projected point totals between the two early games and the two late ones. The easy out is to load up on players in the 7-7:30 window, which is exactly what everyone else will do. GPP players simply have to take chances on the late games to differentiate.

Florida State vs. Gonzaga (-6.5), o/u 147.5, 7:09 p.m. EST

Rui Hachimura ($8,500 DK, $8,300 FD) leads the next wave of Zags price wise, and while he's been in poor form, going for nine and 18 FDP in two of his last three games, he's still returned right around 4x value in five of his last nine. He may make a nice contrarian play given his recent showings. Josh Perkins ($6,600 DK, $6,700 FD) and Zach Norvell Jr. ($7,200 DK, $7,100 FD) both showed well in December matchups with ACC foes UNC and North Carolina, but struggled greatly against FSU's size in last year's tournament loss. Gonzaga really goes only six deep, with Corey Kispert ($4,300 DK, $4,900 FD) and Killian Tillie ($4,900 DK, $4,600 FD) rounding out its options. Both have the propensity to foul, which could be ominous against a 'Nole team that shot 37 free throws in Round 1 against Vermont. This is a big step up in class for Gonzaga, having not faced this level of competition, size and athleticism in months. It's not an ideal matchup, and given Norvell and Perkins' struggles last year with the Seminoles, my overall shares of the Zags' offense may be less than I initially thought.

FSU's depth has been a thorn in fantasy manager's sides all year long. It's been trimmed slightly through the postseason, with Mann, Kabengele and Trent Forrest ($5,300 DK, $5,600 FD) being the main beneficiaries. DraftKings doesn't appear to like the 'Noles all that much based on pricing, so stacking these three is very much in play given the minimal cost and game's projected score. RaiQuan Gray ($3,800 DK, $4,200 FD) is going to be a chalky cheap pick with Phil Cofer ($4,400 DK and FD) out (foot/personal), but a lot of his opening-weekend value came by way of seven steals. With high ownership potential and limited upside, I'm looking elsewhere. Jean Marc Christ Koumadje ($4,300 DK, $4,800 FD) has seen his minutes fall after a nice February stretch, while M.J. Walker ($4,700 DK, $4,000 FD) and David Nichols ($4,400 DK, $3,500 FD remain largely scoring dependent.

Purdue vs. Tennessee (-1), o/u 146.5, 7:29 p.m. EST

Outside of Edwards and Haarms, I'm not too enthralled with Boilermakers on Thursday. Nojel Eastern ($5,900 DK, $5,700 FD) could offer some intrigue as a low-owned option if we can verify he's a full go after suffering an ankle injury last weekend that limited him to 37 total minutes. He averaged 26.4 DKP in 13 games prior to last week's duds. Grady Eifert ($5,000 DK,$5,100 FD) and Ryan Cline ($5,400 DK, $5,500 FD) round out the starters, and no bench option plays more than Aaron Wheeler's ($4,000 DK, $3,800 FD) 13.5 minutes. Eifert saw his DK price rise $400 from a week ago after averaging a mere 17.25 points, while Cline's price maintained while posting 23.4 points. The latter looks like a stable cash option given his 33.8 minute average.

Tennessee at least goes one player deeper. Admiral Schofield's ($7,600 DK, $7,700 FD) absence at the end of Sunday's game against Iowa will scare some away, but I'm more concerned that he's only topped 30 FDP in three of his last 11 outings. His peripheral stats are too inconsistent for his price personally. Jordan Bone's ($6,800 DK, $7,000 FD) lack of consistency makes him a GPP target only. He's averaged only 23.7 DKP in his last four after averaging 32.5 DKP in his previous four. Schofield and Bone's relative struggles have opened the door for Lamonte Turner ($5,800 DK, $6,000 FD) to provide 24.2 DKP over his last 11, topping 27 points in six of those outings. Jordan Bowden ($5,000 DK, $5,200 FD) is finding his way into enough rebounds that not entirely scoring dependent, topping 20 DK points nine times in his last 16, but unfortunately just once in his last three. Previously-mentioned Kyle Alexander ($5,100 DK, $5,000 FD) rounds out the Vols minutes eaters, but unless he can use his athleticism to beat Haarms, there's very limited potential.

Texas Tech vs. Michigan (-2), o/u 126, 9:24 p.m. EST

The Red Raiders play seven guys 14+ minutes, so predicting where Culver's help will come nightly is a challenge. Davide Moretti ($5,200 DK, $5,300 FD) and Matt Mooney ($6,200 DK, $6,300 FD) dominate the ball, and secondary scoring chances, while Tariq Owens' ($6,000 DK, $6,200 FD) ability to add blocks to points and rebounds likely give him the most non-Culver upside, averaging 27.1 DKP in his last seven, a number Moretti has hit only three times in his last 15 outings. Mooney's current form lends itself to some consideration, as thanks to four or more assists in seven of his last eight, averaging 26.0 DKP in that span. Brandone Francis ($4,300 DK, $3,900 FD), Deshawn Corprew ($4,200 DK, $3,600 FD) and Kyler Edwards ($4,100 DK, $3,300 FD) have only one combined 20+ point game in their last 10 (from Francis), and while Norense Odiase's ($4,500 DK, $4,000 FD) 35.3 DKP outing against Buffalo will open eyes, his minutes aren't trustworthy, and he has only six other games all year where he's topped the 20-point threshold.

Six Wolverines average 22.6 minutes and 8.2 points or more which is why we don't see a Wolverine priced higher than Zavier Simpson's $7,300 on both sites. He's as rock-solid as they come, averaging 31.3 DKP in his last 11, seven times topping 30 with just a 22.3 point outlier against Michigan State being the sole game where he didn't reach 25 points. Ignas Brazdeikis' ($6,300 DK, $6,500 FD) floor is much higher than his ceiling. His 10.8 DKP dud against Florida was the first time he failed to reach 23 points in his last nine games, but he topped 30 points just twice in that stretch. Jon Teske ($6,200 DK, $6,900 FD) has 50+ pounds on Owens, and no other Red Raider rotational player is over 6-foot-8. This looks like a good spot for him to safely reach double-digit rebounds, and the fact he mismatches inside could help him score more than usual. Jordan Poole ($5,700 DK, $5,900 FD) does little for me, which likely means he's due to drop 25+ here. But there's such a low ceiling as he does little more than score, averaging 21.5 DKP in his last nine. Isaiah Livers ($4,800 DK, $4,700) rounds out the Michigan options, and presents as little more than a dart throw in GPPs. In 15 games since February 1, he's topped 24 DKP four times, going for 16.5 or less 10 times.

Oregon vs. Virginia (-8.5), o/u 119, 9:44 p.m., EST

The elephant in the room is Mamadi Diakite ($4,600 DK, $5,000 FD), who has arguably been UVA's best player through two games. I'm personally fading him, as I think he'll have his hands full on the interior against the Ducks, but a closer look at his game log shows his two-game outburst wasn't as surprising as it appears, but rather his single-digit fantasy points across sites in four of his previous five were the true outliers. Just expect high ownership. His new-found scoring prowess has dampened the appeal of DeAndre Hunter ($7,000 DK, $7,200 FD), which may leave Hunter as my preferred GPP Cavalier target. Kyle Guy ($6,700 DK, $6,500 FD) couldn't throw it in the ocean in two games in Columbia, going just 4-of-23 from the floor and 1-of-15 from 3-point range. Shooters' site lines during the tournament are an interesting angle, and while Guy has familiarity at Louisville's KFC Yum! Center, he's just  9-of-26 across three games there. Ty Jerome ($7,500 DK, $7,600 FD) has by far the safest floor thanks to being ball dominant and capability to provide assists and steals, while Braxton Key ($4,500 DK, $4,900 FD) and Kihei Clark ($4,300 DK, $4,100 FD) are mere roster fillers, while Jack Salt ($3,800 DK, $3,600 FD) saw only seven minutes last weekend.

We've reached the Oregon portion of this piece. The Ducks have won 10 straight, many in impressive fashion, and the underdog role paired with the projected low total make them a very interesting GPP gamble. Payton Pritchard ($7,400 DK, $7,800 FD) leads the way, and has gone for at least 31 DKP in nine of his last 10 outings. Kenny Wooten ($5,300 DK, $5,100 FD) has swatted four shots in each of his last four games, going for a season-high 34.6 FDP last Sunday. Louis King ($6,600 DK) $5,800 FD and Paul White ($5,700 DK, $5,400 FD) round out the frontcourt rotation, and are capable of 25ish fantasy points. Will Richardson ($4,400 DK, $4,500 FD) is highly scoring dependent, but at least sees a consistent bit of minutes off the bench. The Ducks put up 72 points on Wisconsin, who ranks fourth in defensive efficiency and 331st in tempo. Virginia checks in third and 353rd, respectively. Ducks can't really be used in cash games, but a $1 tournament entry with reasonable Oregon exposure seems worth the chance.