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Early Starting Pitcher ADP -- It's All About the Depth

Not that there isn't a ton of information you're getting from this ADP series, but if there's only one thing that you take away from the multitude of articles you'll be reading between now and Opening Day, please let it be that starting pitching is ridiculously deep. Obscenely deep. So deep that you can't dive to the bottom of the pool and make it back up to the surface for air in time.

We can take the obvious and say 30 teams with five starters each gives you 150 starters from which to choose, but you know as well as I do that it doesn't end there. You've got minor league call-ups throughout the season and middle relievers who are actually swingmen and get a number of starts as well. Not that the swingmen are guys you target in your draft, but we all know how bananacakes the fantasy community gets when they hear some kid is throwing 95 mph heaters with pinpoint command in Double-A. Only a matter of time before the kid gets fast-tracked to the majors, right?

But seriously. I've done a series of mock drafts already, from draft guides to ones just for fun. I've mocked with fantasy experts and guys who are just doing it for fun as they just get their prep work underway. I've launched the Mock Draft Army, for crying out loud. We've done 12-teamers, 15 teamers, mixed league, single league, you name it. And after each and every one, everyone makes some sort of comment on the ridiculous depth of the starting pitching.

Just to give you an example: I did a 15-team mock the other day for one site and decided that I was going to see what kind of staff I would end up with if I filled every starting offensive position first and then picked my rotation. How would the depth stand up then? Obviously this isn't a strategy I recommend to anyone, but I needed to see that side of the spectrum first. It was a two-catcher, mixed league with five outfield slots and the usual middle, corner, utility thing going on, so that meant my first pitcher would be taken in Round 15.

Well, it's not a world-beating staff, by any means, and I won't say that it doesn't have its flaws, but it's actually a lot better than I thought it would be. A lot better. My first starter was Chris Archer and from there I went with Tony Cingrani, Taijuan Walker, Josh Johnson, Alexi Ogando, and Tim Hudson. I also splashed in some closers in David Robertson, Tommy Hunter and Nate Jones. Definitely some youthful upside for strikeouts and potentially decent ratios, the third closer was added in to help supplement the ratios of Hudson and potentially Johnson. Again, not a killer staff, but not too bad considering my first pitcher was picked in the 15th round.

So with all of that, let's take a look at the current ADP for starters by way of the NFBC. To save some space, I'll just list the top 80 here and then we'll discuss a few noticeable things.

Starting Pitcher ADP – Top 80

RankPlayerTeamAvg PickMin PickMax Pick
1Clayton KershawLAD6.18318
2Yu DarvishTex16.82725
3Max ScherzerDet28.311240
4Jose FernandezMia28.722041
5Adam WainwrightStL33.621944
6Stephen StrasburgWas34.442449
7Felix HernandezSea42.93353
8Justin VerlanderDet44.492071
9Cliff LeePhi44.622361
10Madison BumgarnerSF47.823460
11Chris SaleCWS49.873858
12David PriceTB53.744069
13Zack GreinkeLAD60.854779
14Cole HamelsPhi62.364678
15Anibal SanchezDet76.1358103
16Jordan ZimmermannWas86.0562123
17Michael WachaStL86.3365119
18Hisashi IwakumaSea88.7463104
19Gerrit ColePit93.3350119
20James ShieldsKC97.5673124
21Gio GonzalezWas99.7770138
22Mat LatosCin101.1566137
23Mike MinorAtl102.0879138
24Matt CainSF102.6266134
25Homer BaileyCin110.7769148
26Alex CobbTB116.3884147
27Shelby MillerStL117.0856161
28Matt MooreTB118.8562164
29Kris MedlenAtl119.4680160
30Julio TeheranAtl126.3365179
31Jered WeaverLAA137.1585179
32Danny SalazarCle139.41101196
33Masahiro TanakaNYY140.0848321
34Tony CingraniCin149.03106190
35Hyun-jin RyuLAD152.26115201
36Andrew CashnerSD159.74106199
37Francisco LirianoPit163.51106227
38Patrick CorbinAri169.28118218
39Jon LesterBos172.56132218
40Jeff SamardzijaChC175.31128217
41Doug FisterWas175.79121230
42C.J. WilsonLAA180.56135241
43Johnny CuetoCin188.79144226
44Clay BuchholzBos194.08109248
45Justin MastersonCle202.28131267
46CC SabathiaNYY212.44146273
47Zack WheelerNYM214.97153259
48Neftali FelizTex216.15162315
49Taijuan WalkerSea218.13126264
50R.A. DickeyTor218.56151268
51Marco EstradaMil222.26133270
52Lance LynnStL224.49154268
53A.J. GriffinOak228.33178269
54Chris ArcherTB228.36194295
55Ubaldo JimenezCle241.64198297
56Brandon BeachyAtl243.23188318
57Chris TillmanBal247.15193309
58Tim LincecumSF249.1207296
59Hiroki KurodaNYY251.05212291
60Matt GarzaMil257.46187328
61Derek HollandTex261.74164488
62A.J. BurnettPit262.79153372
63Jarrod ParkerOak266.31198317
64Yovani GallardoMil266.67191325
65Dan HarenLAD268.72188315
66Alex WoodAtl270.85194346
67Jake PeavyBos271.41205317
68Dan StrailyOak272.15186328
69Tyson RossSD275.08227344
70Ian KennedySD275.9196321
71Scott KazmirOak276.15230342
72Corey KluberCle279.18225325
73John LackeyBos281.21240334
74Ervin SantanaKC291.9260351
75Jose QuintanaCWS296.59263334
76Bartolo ColonNYM300.79228343
77Archie BradleyAri302.05214395
78Josh JohnsonSD304.74255352
79Rick PorcelloDet306.54228399
80Ivan NovaNYY306.85228348

One of the caveats to remember about the NFBC is that it doesn't allow trading due to the money involved and the lack of desire for drama and potential collusion. So while many who do play in this league probably know they should/could wait on pitching, there's always a bit of an overwhelming need to grab that ace before the top 10 or 15 run out. Need that anchor, is what they're likely telling themselves. So when you see that run, from Max Scherzer (28.31) through David Price (53.74), that's really where it's being driven. If the only pitchers they can add come from the waiver wire, then they feel that this is a move they have to make fairly early. Things tend to spread out a lot more after that.

Youthful Exuberance

We go through this at virtually every position, but for some reason, when it comes to starters, owners go much crazier over pitchers. Probably because, a young hitter who hits 30 home runs at High-A won't necessarily hit that many with each advancement of level, but a kid throwing 95 mph throws 95 mph no matter what level he's on. But while that may be the case, there are other things you need to be careful with in the case of young pitchers; that being pitch counts, innings limits, and, of course, when that expected Tommy John surgery will arrive.

Still, fantasy owners fall all over themselves to grab them, as evidenced by the ADP of pitchers such as Michael Wacha(86.33), Gerrit Cole (93.33), Shelby Miller (117.08), and Danny Salazar(139.41). The moment one of these guys gets drafted, the chat room heats up with comparisons and questions as to which one you'd rather have more. But while all four are incredibly talented – and I think we can also add Sonny Gray, Tony Cingrani and eventually Taijuan Walker into the mix – fantasy owners need to make sure that they aren't getting caught up in the hype. Will these guys pitch a full season? Will their coaches coddle them in the early goings of the season or will they let them reach 100 pitches if they're able? It's great to have these guys on your home team, but fantasy is a business, and unless you're in a long-term keeper league with no contracts, it'd be a real shame to pass on quality, proven talent just because you get caught up in the fray. Be careful how you build your staff.

We'll continue to go through a number of starters throughout this series and track the rising and falling ADP trends, but for today, remember, it's all about the depth here. There's plenty of pitching to go around, so do your homework and you'll be just fine.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for nearly two decades on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him directly at [email protected]