The RotoWire Blog has been retired.

These archives exist as a way for people to continue to view the content that had been posted on the blog over the years.

Articles will no longer be posted here, but you can view new fantasy articles from our writers on the main site.

Early First Base ADP

We're going to continue our look at preliminary ADPs and move onto the first baseman. In the past, the first base position has long been considered one of the deepest out there for fantasy owners. Back at the turn of the century (I love how old that statement makes me feel), the first base position had 30 players who hit 20 or more home runs. Last season there were 18. That's a pretty significant drop-off, even over a 13-year span, and in looking at some of the early ADP numbers this year, it looks like more of the same.

First Basemen ADP – The Top 50

RankPlayerTeamAvg. PickMin. PickMax. Pick
1Miguel CabreraDet1.9015
2Paul GoldschmidtAri3.1324
3Chris DavisBal7.32314
4Joey VottoCin16.84848
5Edwin EncarnacionTor19.581264
6Prince FielderTex19.711197
7Freddie FreemanAtl22.651235
8Albert PujolsLAA47.8722176
9Eric HosmerKC50.712370
10Allen CraigStL51.972670
11Adrian GonzalezLAD59.7748168
12Mark TrumboAri70.1037101
13Anthony RizzoChC113.9785152
14Jose AbreuCWS123.1651226
15Matt AdamsStL130.8769215
16Brandon BeltSF139.7766190
17Mike NapoliBos145.8487294
18Brandon MossOak150.71104217
19Kendrys MoralesSea160.4594202
20Mark TeixeiraNYY192.71111343
21Nick SwisherCle213.16138364
22Justin MorneauCol216.03163348
23Ryan HowardPhi220.58165447
24Corey HartSea226.13176323
25Adam LindTor242.06200416
26Adam DunnCWS267.47213368
27Adam LaRocheWas279.23229427
28Yonder AlonsoSD299.42205379
29James LoneyTB301.61219394
30Mitch MorelandTex345.13230445
31Justin SmoakSea349.03271431
32Ike DavisNYM353.68282419
33Logan MorrisonSea367.29280488
34Garrett JonesMia401.43293544
35Jon SingletonHou426.52308514
36Mark ReynoldsMil432.81330537
37Juan FranciscoMil436.57343514
38Mike OltChC477.65332555
39Paul KonerkoCWS478.30336589
40Brett WallaceHou500.13397605
41Casey McGeheeMia505.92361731
42Gaby SanchezPit581.27424721
43C.J. CronLAA586.28481721
44Nate FreimanOak592.91346747
45Jesus GuzmanHou601.47459695
46Tommy MedicaSD607.35487750
47Jordan PachecoCol615.90520741
48Chris McGuinessPit621.86345725
49Josh SatinNYM625.55346723
50Daric BartonOak634.38489747

As you can see, the top 12 first basemen are all off the board by roughly the 70th pick, or the sixth round for most standard 12-team leagues. That seems to be par for the course right now and should be the way things unfold even closer to the season. The problem is, there's just not as much depth here as there used to be. Even just a few years ago, not only could you wait on the position through the early rounds, but there was so much power to be had, that you could also wait on your corner infield slot and still land a 20-plus home run guy. Nowadays, if you don't jump on one of these guys in the first few rounds, you run the risk of being short on power for much of the season.

Obviously there are a few wild cards out there. Players like Anthony Rizzo and Brandon Belt are developing talents who could conceivably break the 20-home run barrier with ease. Jose Abreu and Matt Adams could as well, provided they see the regular at-bats we'd like them to see. And, of course, there are a few rebound candidates such as Adam LaRoche and Mark Teixeira who could also do some damage if they're back to their old ways. But unlike years past, there are far too many 'what ifs' here to make a fantasy owner comfortable about waiting it out. If you're looking for strength and you want to lock yourself into some decent power, then you need to act fast at first and leave the waiting for another position out there.

Now here's a look at a few names I'm keeping tabs on and watching their ADP over the next couple of months:

Prince Fielder, TEX – Owners who have him in keeper leagues are still wiping away their tears of joy from when they received news that the slugger would be leaving Comerica Park to play half of his games at hitting-friendly Rangers Ballpark at Arlington. The power drop he experienced in his first season with Detroit was to be expected, but the struggles during last year seemed to take both us and him by surprise which led to his pressing at the plate. He tried to be more aggressive at the plate which turned into a higher strikeout rate and fewer walks and he just couldn't get himself back on track like he did towards the tail end of the season before. The confidence with which he'll walk into this season with will be high and he should start things off well this spring. That should start to push his ADP up as those in the back-end of Round 1 will start to go after him more.

Albert Pujols, LAA – How Pujols walks into camp this year will be a huge factor in his ADP trends throughout the spring. The gradual decline we've witnessed should be prevalent in everyone's minds, but should he open the spring on a high note and we start hearing the ol' "best shape of his life" cliché, many will buy into the hype and start plucking him earlier and earlier. Given the risk that comes along with him, a fourth or fifth-round pick seems about right for him. But all it will take is one big week and he's back to the third and potentially even the second round.

Allen Craig/Matt Adams, STL – The rollercoaster ride that both their ADPs could take this spring should be interesting to watch. As it stands right now, Craig will be in right (still qualifies at first though) and Adams will be at first base. That's the way the season is supposed to open. However, there are a number of things that could happen that could change all that and how both guys are valued in drafts. Craig isn't exactly a picture of health, Adams had a great year but one year proves nothing, and what happens if Oscar Taveras comes out raking? There's a lot that can happen in the Cardinals' camp this spring, so if you're drafting early, stay attune to the ADP trends.

Mark Trumbo, ARI – I actually debated whether to even mention Trumbo for fear that my excessive praise would shoot his ADP straight up the rankings, but I just can't contain my enthusiasm. Back to back 30-home run seasons and now he's moving to an uber-friendly hitter's park where he and Paul Goldschmidt will bat third and fourth in the lineup? Come on! Um, Bob, I think that ISO number is gonna be a whole lot higher! Sure the batting average could be a disaster, but the potential 40 home runs we'll likely see will certainly outweigh any negatives.

Justin Morneau, COL – Could the move to Colorado help resurrect the career? Can he stay healthy for the year? Will the move to Coors help him with his recent power struggles? Morneau looks like a dead pull hitter these days so the new park should help him out, but the splits from last year don't show Target Field as too much of a hindrance as one might think. Still, a change of scenery could certainly help him and should he feel any kind of rejuvenation this spring, we'll see it reflected in his ADP numbers, for sure.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for nearly two decades on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him directly at [email protected].