Justin Smoak

Justin Smoak

37-Year-Old First Baseman1B
 Free Agent  
2024 Fantasy Outlook
There was no outlook written for Justin Smoak in 2024. Check out the latest news below for more on his current fantasy value.
$Signed a one-year contract with the Giants in September of 2020. Released by the Giants in September of 2020.
Heads to Japan
1BFree Agent  
December 29, 2020
Smoak signed a contract with the NPB's Yomiuri Giants on Tuesday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Smoak fits the profile common to many players who head overseas as a competent slugger but not necessarily one who hits well enough to justify a spot at the highest level given his defensive limitations. Coming off a disappointing short season in which he hit just .176/.250/.361 in 36 games for the Brewers and Giants, he'll try to re-establish his value in Japan, but at age 34, it's quite likely his MLB days are over.
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Justin Smoak See More
Why I Won't Be Drafting Shohei Ohtani This Season
349 days ago
Everybody loves Shohei Ohtani, and rightfully so, but it might be time to take a one-year break from drafting him, argues Erik Halterman.
Collette Calls: 2023 AL Central Bold Predictions
February 2, 2023
Jason Collette tackles the AL Central with his latest set of bold predictions, featuring the case for Akil Baddoo, Brady Singer, Nick Gordon and more.
Jeff Zimmerman on Unicorn MLB Seasons: Matt Olson, Brandon Crawford & Others
February 9, 2022
Jeff Zimmerman tries to find some recent historical comps for what we saw from Matt Olson and Brandon Crawford last season. Was he successful? How should we handle these outlier seasons?
The Z Files: The Fallacy of Stabilization and an Early Look at Home Runs
April 10, 2021
Todd Zola offers some thoughts on early-season trends, including the home run surge led by Nick Castellanos and the Reds.
The Z Files: Who's on First?
The Z Files: Who's on First?
December 10, 2020
December 10, 2020
Todd Zola offers up his first base tiers, where Freddie Freeman finally seems to be getting his due.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
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2009
The Smoak Monster was slayed in 2020. Outside of his outlying 2017 season, Smoak has mostly been a source of cheap homers with decent run and RBI numbers which comes with a big drag on the batting average. This past season offered none of the above as he began the year with Milwaukee and finished it with San Francisco. Smoak struggled mightily with strikeouts and his ability to draw walks up and vanished as pitchers continued to feed him the breaking balls which he began struggling with in 2018 and has done progressively worth with since. Over the past three seasons, Smoak has hit .185 off breaking balls and has swung and missed at them over 40% of the time. A 34-year-old with these kinds of flaws is going to be tough to roster, real or fantasy, even if he provides plus power. He'll try to revive his career after signing to play in Japan in 2021.
After his long-awaited breakout in 2017, Smoak took steps backward in 2018 and 2019. He trimmed his K-rate back down last season, from 26.3% to 21.2%, while lifting his walk rate to a career-high 15.8%. Smoak's barrel rate held steady, as did his average exit velocity. Despite all that, Smoak saw his BA sink more than 30 points all the way down to .208, the second-lowest mark among hitters with 450 PA. His xBA was .245, 23 points higher than his xBA from 2018. The production never manifested on the field, however, and with Smoak heading toward free agency, the Blue Jays gave at-bats to younger players at Smoak's expense. Now 32 and with 6.2 fWAR in 1,250 career games, the switch-hitting Smoak had to settle for a one-year deal with Milwaukee. The landing spot keeps Smoak in the mix as a low-cost corner or utility option in deep leagues, but he will likely be a part-time player from this point forward.
Smoak paired an elevated launch angle with his usually solid plate discipline to submit a long-awaited breakout in 2017. While he was a productive hitter on the whole again last season (121 wRC+), most of his success was derived from his 0.53 BB/K rather than maintaining his prior gains in the power department. Smoak lost 13 home runs from his 2017 total, with that decline likely attributable to a 2.2-degree drop in his launch angle and sizable corresponding downturns in his hard-hit and barrel rates. The 32-year-old shouldn't be written off entirely as a rebound candidate for 2019. Another 25-homer, high-OBP/low-average campaign could await Smoak, who had his $8 million option exercised by Toronto in the offseason. That profile is useful enough in real-life terms, but not as much in the fantasy realm.
Smoak, long considered a bust as a first-round pick, went off for a career-high 38 home runs last season, and it's rather difficult to poke holes in his performance. In his age-30 campaign, Smoak trimmed his strikeout rate by more than 11 percentage points (to 20.1 percent) while adding 138 points to his slugging percentage (.529 SLG). As Smoak explained to Travis Sawchik of FanGraphs, he learned to lay off more pitches outside the strike zone -- particularly the curveball -- and was better at making contact with pitches out of the zone when he did swing at them. While Smoak's batting average fell to .241 in the second half, he improved his walk rate considerably after the break (from 9.3 percent to 13.8 percent) while maintaining a strikeout rate right around 20 percent. He hit from both sides of the plate and his home/road splits were marginal. Playing time concerns are justified, but we're buying into Smoak's development as a player.
Smoak looked primed for a big 2016 when platoon-mate Chris Colabello was suspended in April for violating the league's substance abuse policy. However, Smoak couldn't capitalize on the opportunity and found himself regularly sitting on the bench by season's end. He had a strong May (.309 with five homers), but hit just .176 with nine home runs in the other five months combined. The first baseman struggled so much that manager John Gibbons reluctantly moved the defensively-challenged Edwin Encarnacion from DH to an everyday job in the field. Smoak's 32.8 percent strikeout rate was the sixth highest in all of MLB for players with at least 330 plate appearances. Steve Pearce will start against lefties and Rowdy Tellez, one of the Jays' top prospects, could give Smoak a run for his money by midseason.
After a disastrous 2014 season, Smoak found new digs north of the border and put together a strong season. While a sub-.300 on-base percentage is less than ideal, Smoak is an excellent defender at first base and provides a nice platoon bat. Chris Colabello came out of nowhere and finding him at-bats became increasingly difficult due to Smoak’s strong play. Smoak, Colabello and Edwin Encarnacion should split time at first base and designated hitter, though Smoak may end up seeing the shortest end of that stick. His defense and switch-hitting abilities will find him as a late-inning replacement, particularly when Encarnacion is manning first, but is the worst hitter of their three options.
Smoak, the centerpiece of the return package from the Rangers for Cliff Lee in 2010, hit just .224/.309/.380 with 66 homers in parts of five seasons with the Mariners. Seattle finally gave up on him last season, and he was claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays in October. He posted a career-low .614 OPS in 80 games with the Mariners in 2014, but he'll at least provide Toronto with some depth and could make a run at semi-regular playing time, with Adam Lind shipped off to Milwaukee in the offseason.
With nearly 2,000 major-league plate appearances, it's probably time to just accept Smoak for what he is –- a streaky, low-average hitter with a bit of power who struggles with contact and can't hit lefties despite switch-hitting. His batting average likely will always be feeble as long as his contract rate remains in the mid-70s (74 percent last season). He has home-run power but last year's .412 slugging percentage was a career high. His hot streaks, such as the one he went on last year after he came off the disabled list, are usually propelled by inflated BABIP and flyball rates that eventually normalize. Sure, he can draw some walks, but he's useless against lefties (.192/.274/.548 last season). Perhaps the Rangers knew what they were doing when they traded him to the Mariners in 2010 for Cliff Lee.
Smoak entered last season needing to prove he was the long-term answer at first base for the Mariners. He spent most of the season, though, just trying to prove he was better than the Mendoza Line. The Mariners finally had enough by late July and sent him to Triple-A with a .189 average. He returned in mid-August with a shortened swing and finished the season with a flourish, hitting .394 with a 1.177 OPS and five homers in his final 18 games. It was an encouraging finish, but it wasn't the only time he got hot last year. In fact, he looked like he had found his swing with a month-long hot streak early in the season only to then slump to a .394 OPS (not a misprint) in the 39 games before his demotion. Ultimately, Smoak did not prove what he needed to last season, and the Mariners appear to have given up on him, acquiring Kendrys Morales to handle the bulk of first-base duty and Mike Morse, who can back up first if needed. Smoak is headed back to Triple-A if he isn't traded.
After a promising start to the season, Smoak's 2011 turned rocky by early summer. He struggled through July, watching his average drop nearly 50 points from its late-June high of .264. He played only three games in August because of separate injuries. And all that came after his father passed away earlier in the year. Instead of solidifying his spot in the middle of the lineup, Smoak still has questions to answer. The Mariners are in the market for more power, but if they sign a first baseman, Smoak likely would be kept around as the DH. Either way, Smoak has something to prove in 2012.
Smoak was the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee deal last season, heading to Seattle with the opportunity to be a middle-of-the-order power bat and first baseman for the foreseeable future. He struggled at times with Texas after his callup, and then the Mariners sent him to Triple-A after a .439 OPS in 16 games. He returned in mid-September and warmed up over the final 10 games with 15 hits, three doubles, three homers, nine RBI and seven walks. If he can carry that over to 2011, he'll be in fine shape. If not, he'll have plenty of time to figure things out as he has first base all to himself.
Smoak struggled at Triple-A Oklahoma City, hitting just .244/.363/.360 in 197 at-bats following a decent showing at Double-A Frisco (.326/.450/.483 in 178 at-bats). He continues to show an excellent batting eye, drawing 52 walks and fanning just 55 times in 375 at-bats on the season. The lack of power is a tad troubling, though we'll give him another go at Triple-A Oklahoma City before we get too concerned. Where he fits in behind Chris Davis once he arrives in Texas will largely depend on how each player progresses over the next 12-18 months.
Smoak draw comparisons to Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira after being a first-round pick in June, and his brief pro debut (.304/.355/.518 in 56 at-bats) at Low-A Clinton was solid after agreeing to terms right at the deadline in early August. His AFL campaign was solid as well, and he should see time at Double-A Frisco by year's end. Where he fits long-term with Chris Davis at first base remains to be seen, but it's a nice problem to have.
More Fantasy News
Moves on from San Francisco
1BFree Agent  
September 23, 2020
The Giants released Smoak on Wednesday.
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Designated for assignment
1BSan Francisco Giants  
September 21, 2020
Smoak was designated for assignment by the Giants on Monday, Amy Gutierrez of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
ANALYSIS
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Active for Thursday's game
1BSan Francisco Giants  
September 10, 2020
Smoak was activated by the Giants prior to Thursday's game in San Diego, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.
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Lands in San Francisco
1BSan Francisco Giants  
September 9, 2020
Smoak agreed to a minor-league contract with the Giants on Wednesday, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.
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Cut loose by Milwaukee
1BFree Agent  
September 7, 2020
The Brewers released Smoak on Sunday.
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Not expected to rejoin Jays
1BToronto Blue Jays  
October 21, 2019
The Blue Jays aren't expected to re-sign Smoak, MLB.com writes.
ANALYSIS
Smoak crawled to just a 101 OPS+ in 2019 as Toronto brought its youth movement to the big leagues. Expect the club to continue giving Rowdy Tellez a trial -- at least as the top-side platoon bat -- and Smoak to look for work somewhere else as a designated hitter.
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