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Recent Starting Pitcher ADP Trends

Wait on starting pitching. That's what they say. Standard leagues usually have 13 or 14 hitters who play almost every day compared to nine pitchers (usually six or seven starters) who contribute every five days. The pundits tell you to build your offense with early picks first in snake-style drafts and for auctions, they suggest that you split your budget 65/35 in favor of hitting. And in looking at the most recent ADP trends and rankings for starting pitchers, it would seem that, for the most part, people are listening.

Those who play in the NFBC are somewhat forced into a different game plan due to the fact that there is no trading allowed. It's hard to begrudge high selections of top-flight starters in a 15-team mixed league where the only way to improve/alter your roster is through selections off the waiver wire. Still, in looking at their ADP trends, you can see that only 26-percent of the first 100 players taken are starters and if you remember last week's piece on relievers and closers, only five-percent of the top 100 came from the bullpen. That obviously means that almost 70-percent of the first 100 players taken in the NFBC are still hitters and even though there's a stronger presence of starters who go in the first few rounds, NFBC owners wait on the position as well. Maybe not to the extent of those on Mock Draft Central, but a substantial amount of waiting nonetheless.

Let's take a look at some of the ADP trends within the position and see who can wait a little longer and who needs to be bumped up on your draft board.

RankPlayerTeamCurrent ADP1 Week AgoTrendMDC ADP|PERCENT|Diff
1Stephen StrasburgWas14.5514.10-3.09|PERCENT|36.21-148.87|PERCENT|
2Justin VerlanderDet15.1315.00-0.86|PERCENT|24.95-64.90|PERCENT|
3Clayton KershawLAD16.4016.20-1.22|PERCENT|17.99-9.70|PERCENT|
4David PriceTB29.6729.790.40|PERCENT|44.05-48.47|PERCENT|
5Felix HernandezSea38.9837.62-3.49|PERCENT|51.36-31.76|PERCENT|
6Cole HamelsPhi42.4142.941.25|PERCENT|49.96-17.80|PERCENT|
7Matt CainSF45.9845.43-1.20|PERCENT|70.50-53.33|PERCENT|
8Cliff LeePhi49.2850.642.76|PERCENT|38.0022.89|PERCENT|
9Jered WeaverLAA54.4153.58-1.53|PERCENT|55.64-2.26|PERCENT|
10Zack GreinkeLAD55.7854.59-2.13|PERCENT|108.73-94.93|PERCENT|
11Gio GonzalezWas55.9655.65-0.55|PERCENT|77.78-38.99|PERCENT|
12Yu DarvishTex59.6662.043.99|PERCENT|59.340.54|PERCENT|
13Madison BumgarnerSF61.1161.230.20|PERCENT|75.47-23.50|PERCENT|
14R.A. DickeyTor68.4967.14-1.97|PERCENT|94.23-37.58|PERCENT|
15Chris SaleCWS69.9570.260.44|PERCENT|92.36-32.04|PERCENT|
16Adam WainwrightStL70.9571.490.76|PERCENT|72.29-1.89|PERCENT|
17CC SabathiaNYY75.1273.63-1.98|PERCENT|104.39-38.96|PERCENT|
18Max ScherzerDet75.2077.152.59|PERCENT|101.20-34.57|PERCENT|
19Kris MedlenAtl75.3775.830.61|PERCENT|77.02-2.19|PERCENT|
20James ShieldsKC79.9978.73-1.58|PERCENT|75.585.51|PERCENT|
21Roy HalladayPhi86.2887.191.05|PERCENT|97.54-13.05|PERCENT|
22Yovani GallardoMil90.6890.67-0.01|PERCENT|114.63-26.41|PERCENT|
23Mat LatosCin91.5892.040.50|PERCENT|123.71-35.08|PERCENT|
24Johnny CuetoCin92.3890.80-1.71|PERCENT|107.33-16.18|PERCENT|
25Jordan ZimmermannWas93.1692.58-0.62|PERCENT|119.28-28.04|PERCENT|
26Matt MooreTB97.6497.960.33|PERCENT|144.27-47.76|PERCENT|
27Jake PeavyCWS122.12121.93-0.16|PERCENT|192.29-57.46|PERCENT|
28Brandon MorrowTor122.55121.70-0.69|PERCENT|139.71-14.00|PERCENT|
29Jeff SamardzijaChC127.51130.602.42|PERCENT|143.24-12.34|PERCENT|
30Tim LincecumSF131.95131.65-0.23|PERCENT|203.19-53.99|PERCENT|
31Ian KennedyAri135.03134.96-0.05|PERCENT|116.9213.41|PERCENT|
32Doug FisterDet139.94135.15-3.42|PERCENT|182.94-30.73|PERCENT|
33Dan HarenWas146.67147.890.83|PERCENT|127.7312.91|PERCENT|
34Josh JohnsonTor146.77146.31-0.31|PERCENT|162.34-10.61|PERCENT|
35C.J. WilsonLAA148.55145.69-1.93|PERCENT|149.96-0.95|PERCENT|
36Jon LesterBos148.63149.520.60|PERCENT|185.68-24.93|PERCENT|
37Matt HarveyNYM149.78151.691.28|PERCENT|211.36-41.11|PERCENT|
38Hiroki KurodaNYY163.94163.00-0.57|PERCENT|159.822.51|PERCENT|
39Brett AndersonOak167.63165.74-1.13|PERCENT|206.88-23.41|PERCENT|
40Mike MinorAtl179.07183.362.40|PERCENT|182.56-1.95|PERCENT|
41Anibal SanchezDet190.66191.700.55|PERCENT|194.24-1.88|PERCENT|
42Jonathon NieseNYM194.95198.331.73|PERCENT|144.8425.70|PERCENT|
43Lance LynnStL196.02196.190.09|PERCENT|222.81-13.67|PERCENT|
44Jarrod ParkerOak196.78196.15-0.32|PERCENT|193.451.69|PERCENT|
45Homer BaileyCin203.66203.730.03|PERCENT|157.7622.54|PERCENT|
46Matt GarzaChC209.03195.93-6.27|PERCENT|237.07-13.41|PERCENT|
47A.J. BurnettPit211.89211.69-0.09|PERCENT|174.5117.64|PERCENT|
48Jeremy HellicksonTB213.81213.79-0.01|PERCENT|227.32-6.32|PERCENT|
49Marco EstradaMil216.41217.410.46|PERCENT|242.88-12.23|PERCENT|
50Ryan VogelsongSF220.94223.431.13|PERCENT|165.5425.07|PERCENT|
51Wade MileyAri221.46221.960.23|PERCENT|202.388.62|PERCENT|
52Alexi OgandoTex223.66224.860.54|PERCENT|189.9515.07|PERCENT|
53Josh BeckettLAD235.34240.462.18|PERCENT|230.981.85|PERCENT|
54Trevor CahillAri241.15241.150.00|PERCENT|203.4315.64|PERCENT|
55Ryan DempsterBos242.29241.02-0.52|PERCENT|226.486.53|PERCENT|
56Mike FiersMil244.89245.360.19|PERCENT|229.036.48|PERCENT|
57Matt HarrisonTex248.67249.730.43|PERCENT|236.384.94|PERCENT|
58Tim HudsonAtl251.62253.530.76|PERCENT|177.4529.48|PERCENT|
59Kyle LohseStL256.06253.91-0.84|PERCENT|188.9326.22|PERCENT|
60Tommy MiloneOak259.59261.020.55|PERCENT|256.431.22|PERCENT|
61Derek HollandTex262.55261.85-0.27|PERCENT|214.9318.14|PERCENT|
62Tommy HansonLAA274.35272.37-0.72|PERCENT|277.11-1.01|PERCENT|
63Shaun MarcumNYM275.11277.220.77|PERCENT|242.4911.86|PERCENT|
64Phil HughesNYY277.20268.49-3.14|PERCENT|240.2213.34|PERCENT|
65Hyun-Jin RyuLAD278.98282.451.24|PERCENT|250.6310.16|PERCENT|
66Hisashi IwakumaSea279.96286.192.23|PERCENT|208.2325.62|PERCENT|
67Edwin JacksonChC281.83282.040.07|PERCENT|213.0124.42|PERCENT|
68Jason HammelBal285.10284.93-0.06|PERCENT|292.62-2.64|PERCENT|
69Wandy RodriguezPit290.20291.860.57|PERCENT|223.7222.91|PERCENT|
70Brandon McCarthyAri290.96289.06-0.65|PERCENT|247.4614.95|PERCENT|
71Alex CobbTB292.53301.463.05|PERCENT|247.5015.39|PERCENT|
72A.J. GriffinOak299.52306.282.26|PERCENT|253.3315.42|PERCENT|
73Andy PettitteNYY302.22301.01-0.40|PERCENT|290.553.86|PERCENT|
74Clay BuchholzBos305.97304.75-0.40|PERCENT|252.2017.57|PERCENT|
75Trevor BauerCle308.35308.680.11|PERCENT|255.5717.12|PERCENT|
76Jason VargasLAA309.87309.960.03|PERCENT|294.694.90|PERCENT|
77Paul MaholmAtl311.50309.38-0.68|PERCENT|280.2110.04|PERCENT|
78Johan SantanaNYM311.57313.030.47|PERCENT|243.2521.93|PERCENT|
79Chris CapuanoLAD316.65310.96-1.80|PERCENT|229.0327.67|PERCENT|
80Wei-Yin ChenBal318.16318.05-0.03|PERCENT|248.8621.78|PERCENT|
81James McDonaldPit319.97324.251.34|PERCENT|242.1024.34|PERCENT|
82Chris TillmanBal320.36321.850.47|PERCENT|314.341.88|PERCENT|
83Ricky RomeroTor325.28325.00-0.09|PERCENT|251.5722.66|PERCENT|
84Edinson VolquezSD327.72329.350.50|PERCENT|261.6020.18|PERCENT|
85Chris CarpenterStL327.76298.49-8.93|PERCENT|NL 
86Jaime GarciaStL332.72335.220.75|PERCENT|304.008.63|PERCENT|
87Mark BuehrleTor336.83340.201.00|PERCENT|305.039.44|PERCENT|
88Bud NorrisHou342.76343.650.26|PERCENT|305.0311.01|PERCENT|
89Daniel StrailyOak343.00344.890.55|PERCENT|NL 
90Dillon GeeNYM346.23355.182.58|PERCENT|284.3517.87|PERCENT|
91Drew SmylyDet346.31346.720.12|PERCENT|323.646.55|PERCENT|
92Brandon BeachyAtl355.54353.99-0.44|PERCENT|NL 
93Vance WorleyMin359.23361.090.52|PERCENT|322.6110.19|PERCENT|
94Gavin FloydCWS365.29365.990.19|PERCENT|248.9931.84|PERCENT|
95Ross DetwilerWas365.99367.700.47|PERCENT|285.3822.03|PERCENT|
96Jeff NiemannTB366.85364.17-0.73|PERCENT|NL 
97Felix DoubrontBos370.73372.310.43|PERCENT|NL 
98Erasmo RamirezSea378.29381.860.94|PERCENT|321.5714.99|PERCENT|
99Zack WheelerNYM378.94382.610.97|PERCENT|NL 
100Wily PeraltaMil379.35382.220.76|PERCENT|NL 
On the Rise

Alex Cobb, TB (+3.05|PERCENT|) – Cobb is sporting a 2.33 ERA through 19.1 innings with a 23:2 K:BB this spring and has looked absolutely fantastic.  His last outing was the first time he really got touched and even then, he gave up just three runs in 5.1 innings and he still managed five strikeouts to just one walk. The good thing is that he's still, for the most part, flying under the radar and while he's slowly climbing up the ranks, he's still a late-round draft pick. There's definitely no reason to rush him onto your roster, but as things start winding down in the later rounds, make sure he's on your watch list.

Dillon Gee, NYM (+2.58|PERCENT|) – Gee is another pitcher that is quietly sneaking up the rankings. His numbers from last season are keeping him low on default rankings as shoulder surgery to remove a blood clot cut his season short. But prior to the surgery, he was pitching pretty darn well, posting a 7.96 K/9 with a 3.71 FIP and a 3.34 K:BB. He's been struggling with his command this spring though, walking eight in nine innings, so you're going to have to keep a close watch on how March finishes up for him. A late round pick….and I mean really late…isn't a big investment, so when you're looking for some arms to round out your bench, you may want to give him a look.

Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (+2.23|PERCENT|) – Apparently it's low-profile day here at MDC as we have another tasty late-round option. Iwakuma is off the radar for many thanks to the fact that he made only 16 starts last year after spending most of the first half of the season in the bullpen. And that bullpen time didn't do such a nice job on his overall totals. But while his numbers were actually real nice, imagine what he could have done with a full year in the rotation. Through 16 starts, he posted a 2.65 ERA and a 1.23 whip with a 20-percent strikeout rate and the Mariners are hoping he can do more of that this season. He's sporting a 2.70 ERA this spring through ten innings, and while he's only got four strikeouts, he hasn't walked a single batter.

Sliding Down

Matt Garza, CHC (-6.27|PERCENT|) – Given the fact that the Cubs are likely to use Garza as mid-season trade bait once their spot outside the playoff picture is more set, it comes as no surprise that the team is taking a very slow approach in bringing the right-hander back from the lat issue from which he is suffering. He is not expected back until early May and that coupled with the uncertainty as to where he ultimately ends up continues to push him down draft boards everywhere. Given the depth at the position, unless you have a DL spot you can use immediately, it would seem best to leave Garza be. Sure, you can grab him and use up a bench spot, but have his numbers really been good enough to warrant that? He regularly battled injuries last year and is set to miss the first month this year. He's put up an ERA below 3.90 just once in the last four seasons. You're going to pin your hopes on that?

Doug Fister, DET (-3.42|PERCENT|) – There's really not much movement here as Fister's drop-off amounts to just a few picks. However, he's not exactly having the best of springs and while spring numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt, it's hard not to be concerned with an 8.18 ERA. Ten earned runs in 11 innings with five walks don't exactly give you the warm fuzzies as an owner. Most of the pundits seem to like him and that obviously makes him a more popular pick, but while 2011 was strong, he did take a step back in 2012 and made fewer starts due to injury. His swinging strike percentage did increase which is why the writers love him so much, but is that enough to convince you to take him?

Phil Hughes, NYY (-3.14) – Though he remains penciled in as the Yankees' fifth starter, Hughes has been slow to recover from his back issues and could miss the first two weeks of the season. That might not be too bad though as the Yankees schedule doesn't call for a fifth starter until two weeks in anyway. But the fact that he hasn't pitched at all this spring is definitely a concern and while people are still picking him up in drafts, he is slowly falling out of favor every week. He had a nice K:BB last season and managed to accrue 16 wins, but the Yankees may not be providing the same offense and the rest of his numbers certainly don't stand well enough on their own.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].