Building a solid middle infield is one of the keys to success in fantasy baseball. Yes, having mashers at first base, a well rounded outfield and solid starting pitching are keys as well, but you can grab a distinct advantage over your opponents by having a stronger middle infield. Traditionally the shallowest of positions out there, second base and shortstop have plenty of talent available, but sometimes the cost to acquire that talent is at a significant premium. Second base is getting easier over the last couple of seasons but shortstop remains pretty thin. Let's take a look at some of the recent ADP trends for both positions and see where it makes the most sense for you to make your move.
Second Basemen
Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |
Robinson Cano | 9.68 | 2.4|PERCENT| | 9.91 | 12.7|PERCENT| | 11.17 | 15.4|PERCENT| |
Dustin Pedroia | 18.75 | 1.0|PERCENT| | 18.93 | 5.9|PERCENT| | 20.04 | 6.9|PERCENT| |
Ian Kinsler | 23.80 | 4.5|PERCENT| | 24.87 | 6.9|PERCENT| | 26.58 | 11.7|PERCENT| |
Dan Uggla | 54.21 | 0.9|PERCENT| | 54.69 | 14.5|PERCENT| | 62.60 | 15.5|PERCENT| |
Brandon Phillips | 62.08 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 62.81 | 2.8|PERCENT| | 64.54 | 4.0|PERCENT| |
Chase Utley | 77.18 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 76.75 | 7.7|PERCENT| | 82.64 | 7.1|PERCENT| |
Rickie Weeks | 79.87 | -1.4|PERCENT| | 78.77 | 7.7|PERCENT| | 84.83 | 6.2|PERCENT| |
Ben Zobrist | 82.65 | 0.7|PERCENT| | 83.23 | 1.5|PERCENT| | 84.48 | 2.2|PERCENT| |
Howie Kendrick | 104.15 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 104.25 | 8.5|PERCENT| | 113.14 | 8.6|PERCENT| |
Dustin Ackley | 135.95 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 135.17 | 10.8|PERCENT| | 149.83 | 10.2|PERCENT| |
Neil Walker | 143.32 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 143.03 | 3.0|PERCENT| | 147.31 | 2.8|PERCENT| |
Danny Espinosa | 149.85 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 148.73 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 147.77 | -1.4|PERCENT| |
Jemile Weeks | 153.79 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 153.67 | -2.8|PERCENT| | 149.39 | -2.9|PERCENT| |
Jason Kipnis | 164.07 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 163.21 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 162.58 | -0.9|PERCENT| |
Alexi Casilla | 227.48 | 16.8|PERCENT| | 265.74 | 21.0|PERCENT| | 321.57 | 41.4|PERCENT| |
Jose Altuve | 227.48 | 6.8|PERCENT| | 242.99 | 6.0|PERCENT| | 257.47 | 13.2|PERCENT| |
Aaron Hill | 231.41 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 231.51 | -1.5|PERCENT| | 227.94 | -1.5|PERCENT| |
Gordon Beckham | 233.61 | 1.4|PERCENT| | 236.83 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 235.43 | 0.8|PERCENT| |
Kelly Johnson | 235.30 | 0.7|PERCENT| | 236.86 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 231.92 | -1.4|PERCENT| |
Brian Roberts | 240.53 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 241.77 | -3.2|PERCENT| | 233.98 | -2.7|PERCENT| |
Omar Infante | 257.47 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 257.47 | -1.6|PERCENT| | 253.33 | -1.6|PERCENT| |
Johnny Giavotella | 274.01 | 15.8|PERCENT| | 317.44 | 2.3|PERCENT| | 324.68 | 18.5|PERCENT| |
Darwin Barney | 332.95 | |||||
Tyler Greene | 371.21 | 21.4|PERCENT| | 450.82 | |||
Joe Inglett | 460.13 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 462.20 |
Just to get an idea as to how much people value the position, notice that all of the top 11 second basemen have seen an increase in ADP rank over the last two weeks and only seven players at the position have seen a decrease, none worse than -2.9|PERCENT|. Also, given the position's still relative thinness, we've got three low end options who are now coming off the board over the past week, but were nowhere to be found two weeks ago.
While second base may be getting a little deeper, that's not stopping people from going after Robinson Cano nice and early. In fact, his 15.4|PERCENT| increase is pushing him closer to the top 10 overall and is looking like a sound late first round choice. Given the company in the first round, it's tough to see him climbing much higher, but if someone truly covets his talents, he could get grabbed earlier than usual.
There is still a definite separation between the top three and the rest of the pack. While Dan Uggla is the fourth second baseman off the board usually and has seen a 15.4|PERCENT| increase in his ADP rank over the last two weeks, there is still a 30 pick gap between him and Ian Kinsler, the guy at number three. There's never a real strong run, but once the top 10 come off the board, you start seeing second basemen come off in bigger chunks at a time.
With rumors circulating that Ichiro might get pulled from the leadoff spot in Seattle, Dustin Ackley has seen a 10.2|PERCENT| increase over the last two weeks. Nothing has been confirmed and little is being said about Ackley getting the nod, but given his batting average and OBP, he's really the only other candidate for the job. Something tells me though that our friend from Japan will stay right where he is and Ackley's ADP will start to stabilize.
The biggest surprise right now is the fact that Kelly Johnson's ADP is as far down as it is. Yes, he's had some batting average struggles, but with 20-HR power and the potential to steal double digit bases, it is puzzling to see him below the likes of Alexi Casilla, Gordon Beckham and even Jose Altuve. If he has a strong spring, expect to see him start to climb.
Biggest Riser: Alexi Casilla, MIN (+41.4|PERCENT|) – With people in the Twins camp raving about Casilla's performance in winter ball (.336 avg. with a .419 OBP over 31 games), it looks like he'll get first crack at the job which is putting him on people's radar a little more lately. Just be careful. He's been known to disappoint in the past, has had some injury problems, and I distinctly recall Carlos Gomez having similar success in the same winter league last season but came up empty once he returned to the big leagues.
Biggest Faller: Jemile Weeks, OAK (-2.9|PERCENT|) – Strictly a matter of preference within the round as a -2.9|PERCENT| drop over a two week span is fairly negligible. He's stabilizing right around the 14th round in 12-team leagues which is right about where most people start hunting for their middle infield position when they already have 2B and SS covered.
Shortstops
Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |
Troy Tulowitzki | 4.59 | 2.6|PERCENT| | 4.71 | 29.9|PERCENT| | 6.12 | 33.3|PERCENT| |
Jose Reyes | 19.37 | -0.3|PERCENT| | 19.31 | 7.7|PERCENT| | 20.79 | 7.3|PERCENT| |
Hanley Ramirez | 19.47 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 19.59 | 3.9|PERCENT| | 20.35 | 4.5|PERCENT| |
Starlin Castro | 42.50 | 1.3|PERCENT| | 43.07 | 4.3|PERCENT| | 44.92 | 5.7|PERCENT| |
Elvis Andrus | 44.75 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 44.56 | 6.2|PERCENT| | 47.33 | 5.8|PERCENT| |
Asdrubal Cabrera | 71.61 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 71.83 | 10.7|PERCENT| | 79.51 | 11.0|PERCENT| |
Jimmy Rollins | 86.56 | 3.1|PERCENT| | 89.21 | 6.4|PERCENT| | 94.88 | 9.6|PERCENT| |
Derek Jeter | 125.80 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 125.52 | -4.5|PERCENT| | 119.82 | -4.8|PERCENT| |
J.J. Hardy | 132.15 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 131.27 | 10.1|PERCENT| | 144.58 | 9.4|PERCENT| |
Dee Gordon | 146.69 | 2.3|PERCENT| | 150.05 | -7.2|PERCENT| | 139.25 | -5.1|PERCENT| |
Erick Aybar | 147.01 | -1.50|PERCENT| | 144.83 | 5.80|PERCENT| | 153.21 | 4.2|PERCENT| |
Stephen Drew | 152.74 | -1.3|PERCENT| | 150.73 | 8.4|PERCENT| | 163.40 | 7.0|PERCENT| |
Alexi Ramirez | 165.88 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 166.04 | 1.1|PERCENT| | 167.89 | 1.2|PERCENT| |
Jhonny Peralta | 175.06 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 174.16 | 5.1|PERCENT| | 183.05 | 4.6|PERCENT| |
Emilio Bonifacio | 177.71 | 4.0|PERCENT| | 184.76 | 3.7|PERCENT| | 191.56 | 7.8|PERCENT| |
Yunel Escobar | 216.09 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 215.14 | 0.7|PERCENT| | 216.64 | 0.3|PERCENT| |
Cliff Pennington | 221.46 | 19.5|PERCENT| | 264.70 | -2.7|PERCENT| | 257.47 | 16.3|PERCENT| |
Sean Rodriguez | 229.36 | 1.8|PERCENT| | 233.53 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 233.71 | 1.9|PERCENT| |
Ian Desmond | 232.67 | 2.3|PERCENT| | 237.98 | 0.2|PERCENT| | 238.42 | 2.5|PERCENT| |
Jed Lowrie | 233.26 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 234.46 | -1.9|PERCENT| | 230.03 | -1.4|PERCENT| |
Marco Scutaro | 236.59 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 236.44 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 237.74 | 0.5|PERCENT| |
Alcides Escobar | 237.30 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 240.11 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 235.94 | -0.6|PERCENT| |
Zack Cozart | 243.56 | 1.3|PERCENT| | 246.63 | -1.9|PERCENT| | 241.96 | -0.7|PERCENT| |
Rafael Furcal | 245.08 | 0.9|PERCENT| | 247.38 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 242.13 | -1.2|PERCENT| |
Alex Gonzalez | 267.81 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 267.81 | -1.5|PERCENT| | 263.67 | -1.5|PERCENT| |
Eduardo Nunez | 278.15 | |||||
Jason Bartlett | 301.93 | 13.40|PERCENT| | 342.25 | -8.20|PERCENT| | 314.34 | 4.10|PERCENT| |
Tyler Pastornicky | 304.00 | -9.50|PERCENT| | 275.04 | 2.30|PERCENT| | 281.25 | -7.50|PERCENT| |
Ryan Theriot | 324.68 | 8.0|PERCENT| | 350.53 | -17.7|PERCENT| | 288.49 | -11.1|PERCENT| |
Yuniesky Betancourt | 326.74 | 1.0|PERCENT| | 329.85 |
Similarly to second base, there is an overall increase in ADP trends, especially in the top 10. Eight of the top ten shortstops have seen an increase in the overall ADP and the two that have declined are an aging Derek Jeter (-4.8|PERCENT|) and relatively unproven Dee Gordon (-5.1|PERCENT|). However, neither decrease is that significant which means that they are still coveted fantasy commodities.
Troy Tulowitzki is not only holding strong as the number one shortstop, but has seen a 33.3|PERCENT| increase in ADP which has pushed him into the top five overall. If you're looking for the best at the position, you better hope that you own a top five pick in your draft. As he trends upwards, the notion of him slipping in your draft becomes a pipe dream.
The gaps between when shortstops are being taken is fairly noticeable as well. There is a 23 pick gap between Hanley Ramirez at number three and Starlin Castro at number four, there's almost a 30 pick gap between Elvis Andrus at number five and Asdrubal Cabrera at number six, fifteen picks between Cabrera and Jimmy Rollins and then another 30 between Rollins and Jeter. That alone should tell you the level of production and breakdown of tiers within the position. Even with the slight increases you're seeing in their ADP rankings, those gaps should hold firm even as we get closer to the start of the season.
If you're looking for potential bargain sleepers, then you should hope the ADP trend continues for Zack Cozart. He is healthy and has the potential for making a strong debut this season. He has started to trend upwards in the last week, but that could also just be his overall ADP stabilizing. Keep an eye on his movement as more draft results come in.
Biggest Riser: Cliff Pennington, OAK (+16.3|PERCENT|) – The A's middle infielders have been seeing a little more love lately, probably because of the guaranteed playing time. With Scott Sizemore locked into third base, the only other infielder on the roster that can handle middle infield duties is Adam Rosales. That leaves Pennington and Weeks virtual locks to play every day.
Biggest Faller: Ryan Theriot, SF (-11.7|PERCENT|) – While Theriot might have the biggest overall drop, you should take notice that he has seen an 8.0|PERCENT| increase over the past week now that he has signed with the Giants. The team is saying that Brandon Crawford (noticeably absent from the above list), but he still might need some more time in the minors. Look for Theriot to start climbing the ranks a little bit.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire, FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].