Obviously it's been just one day since I first started this ADP analysis piece, so it's not like there's a whole lot of change here. However, technically, I wrote it Monday afternoon and published it Tuesday morning, so there are a number of drafts that have taken place and we're already seeing a few interesting things occur. The format of these articles is going to stay the same for easy navigation and I've also added a Top 12 overall. That first pick can be so crucial at times and so many strange things happen in so many drafts that it's good to see an ever-evolving template as to how Round 1 is supposed to go. I'll highlight some of the biggest risers and fallers for each position as well so you can figure out which players people are reaching for and who might still be a late round sleeper. One note to add – while reading through, it is recommended that you open up the latest ADP Rankings in a new window so you can easily refer back. So let's get to it…
Top 12 Overall
1. Arian Foster
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Chris Johnson
4. Jamaal Charles
5. Rashard Mendenhall
6. Maurice Jones-Drew
7. Michael Vick
8. LeSean McCoy
9. Michael Turner
10. Ray Rice
11. Aaron Rogers
12. Darren McFadden
The most interesting aspect that was noticed in the short time between looking at these ADP Rankings is the separation that is now starting to occur within the top 10 picks. The top five have maintained consistency, but the preferences of the masses are showing through more as Jones-Drew is becoming more of a consensus #6 and Vick is being locked down at #7 while McCoy, Turner and Rice are still moving around. In NFL standard leagues, no wide receivers crack the top 12 this year, but if you're in a PPR league, McCoy moves into the top five, Roddy White and Andre Johnson move into the 6 and 10 spots respectively, Vick takes a two spot hit, and Rice jumps to 8.
On the Rise:
Ray Rice's current 9.45 ADP was at 10.94 just two weeks ago, a 15.8|PERCENT| increase. Even with Ricky Williams in camp, there is no fear that Rice won't deliver as the number one choice for the Ravens throughout the game and at the goal line.
Falling:
Arian Foster's 1.30 ADP is down 7.7|PERCENT| and Chris Johnson's has fallen 5.7|PERCENT| to 3.31. Perhaps not everyone is completely enamored with Foster and are accounting for the fact that one season does not a career make. For Johnson, it's as simple as Nervous Nellies afraid of the holdout.
Quarterbacks
Top 10
1. Michael Vick
2. Aaron Rogers
3. Drew Brees
4. Peyton Manning
5. Tom Brady
6. Phillip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9. Matt Schaub
10. Josh Freeman
Earliest Taken: #1 Latest Taken: #126
Most QBs Taken: Between #101 and #12 (5 out of 12 picks)
There were no changes at all within the top 10, and trending wise, Brady and Rivers saw the biggest increases in the overall, although they were both were under 4|PERCENT| which is pretty negligible in the grand scheme of things. The main decreases we saw in this group came from Vick and Rogers, but that has more to do with the increasing need for a high-end running back in the first round of drafts.
On the Map:
Due to the fact that no QB has made any real significant increase in overall ADP ranking, for the time being we'll change the heading here and point out that Tavaris Jackson, Cam Newton, and Alex Smith have all now made an appearance after being completely absent from the rankings over the last two weeks. Both Jackson and Smith are listed as their team's #1 and Newton is getting the start for the Panthers second game of the preseason. He is currently competing with Jimmy Claussen with Derek Anderson listed as the #3.
There are no real Fallers here.
Running Backs
Top 10
1. Arian Foster
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Chris Johnson
4. Jamaal Charles
5. Rashard Mendenhall
6. Maurice Jones-Drew
7. LeSean McCoy
8. Michael Turner
9. Ray Rice
10. Darren McFadden
Earliest Taken: #1 Latest Taken: #22
Most RBs taken: Between #1 and #12 (10 out of 12 picks)
Just as we saw with the quarterbacks, there is no change in the top 10. As mentioned above, both Foster and Johnson have a slight decrease while Rice jumps the most in a two week span. Again though, if we're talking about a PPR league, then Rice and McCoy jump in the rankings. What also happens is Peyton Hillis, Frank Gore, and Matt Forte leapfrog a declining Michael Turner. All three are integral to the short passing game by each of their teams while Turner is less of a pass-catching option in Atlanta's offense.
On the Rise:
Ryan Williams (158.65) saw a 22.4|PERCENT| increase as he continues to impress in camp and in the preseason. Reports are coming in that he is more of a pure runner than incumbent Beanie Wells.
Tim Hightower (152.85) had an 11.4|PERCENT| increase with Ryan Torain breaking his hand. Hightower will be given the opportunity to be the featured back he was supposed to have been back in Arizona.
Falling:
Obviously Torain is taking a hit, but the biggest decrease goes to Toby Gerhart (151.68) at 19.9|PERCENT| with news that he may no longer be the third down back. Lorenzo Booker seems to be a better blocking/catching back during passing downs.
Wide Receivers
Top 10
1. Roddy White
2. Andre Johnson
3. Calvin Johnson
4. Hakeem Nicks
5. Greg Jennings
6. Reggie Wayne
7. Larry Fitzgerald
8. Miles Austin
9. Dwayne Bowe
10. Mike Williams
Earliest Taken: #5 Latest Taken: #44
Most WRs Taken: Between #30 and #41 (7 out of 12 picks)
Again, no change here in the top 10 with ADP variations below 5|PERCENT|, so there's nothing new. However, if you flip to a PPR league, then Jennings drops below Fitzgerald and Bowe and Williams switch spots. The reasons are fairly obvious with Aaron Rogers ability to spread the ball around, Wayne being a favorite in Indy and Fitzgerald and Kevin Kolb about to embark on a beyooooootiful friendship. The difference between Bowe and Williams is slight, but Williams obviously gets the nod as Freeman's top target.
On the Rise:
With a 23.9|PERCENT| increase, Julio Jones (137.38) jumps way up as the WR2 in Atlanta. He's been having a solid camp and should see a fair number of targets each game, especially with defenses trying to contain Roddy White, Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez.
Roy Williams (143.54) makes a huge jump with a 39.7|PERCENT| increase over the past two weeks. His signing with Chicago is a huge boost for his value in both standard and PPR leagues as he should vault Johnny Knox as the primary receiver and accrue the most targets on the Bears. Another preseason game should determine whether he continues to ascend or levels off.
In PPR Leagues, keep an eye on Vincent Jackson (36.63, +13|PERCENT|) and Chad OchoCinco (81.30, +12.2|PERCENT|) as they are primary targets in pass-happy offenses.
Falling:
Jerome Simpson (132.96) takes a 33.9|PERCENT| decrease over the last two weeks with the retirement of Carson Palmer and the inability for the Bengals to serve up someone better than Bruce Gradkowski or Andy Dalton under center. TeammateA.J. Green takes a hit as well, but certainly not as noticeable.
While Randy Moss (147.23) took a 30.3|PERCENT| decrease with the announcement of his retirement, it is interesting to see that he's still being drafted as high as he is going. Perhaps the rumors of the Eagles floating an offer to him are fanning the flames.
Tight Ends
Top 10
1. Jason Witten
2. Antonio Gates
3. Vernon Davis
4. Dallas Clark
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Jimmy Graham
7. Tony Gonzalez
8. Brandon Pettigrew
9. Marcedes Lewis
10. Dustin Keller
Earliest Taken: #35 Latest Taken: ND (Not Drafted)
Most TEs Taken: Between #112 and #123 (4 out of 12)
Very little change with the tight ends here as the top 10 stays exactly the same and the largest run occurs just one pick earlier than before. If we're talking PPR leagues, then favorites like Chris Cooleyand Owen Daniels jump into the top 10 ahead of Lewis. Both tight ends factor heavily in the passing game and with a relative absence of standout secondary receivers, both should continue to see plenty of targets.
On the Rise:
Greg Olsen (177.36) jumps 17.9|PERCENT| with his arrival in Carolina as he figures to be a big part of the passing game. With a declining Steve Smith and a very unproven group of other receivers, Olsen should be a favorite no matter who the starting QB is under center.
There are no significant Fallers of which to speak.