Josh Freeman

With free agent receiver Vincent Jackson in the fold, Freeman posted the first 4,000-yard season of his career and also set a personal best with 27 touchdowns. Freeman's 54.8-percent completion rate was poor, but it was in part the result of throwing downfield to Jackson (and Mike Williams) so often. While Freeman was once a big threat to run the ball, that's not the case anymore. Freeman has at least tried to stay in the pocket more often, as his rushing yards have decreased from 364 in 2010 to 238 in 2011 to just 139 last season. Freeman also struggled down the stretch last year as the team lost six of its last seven games, during which he threw 10 of his 17 interceptions. That's led to questions about Freeman's relationship with coach Greg Schiano and status in the organization, especially after the team took quarterback Mike Glennon in the third round of this year's draft. Nonetheless, Freeman is a heavy favorite to retain the job, and during spring OTAs, Schiano noted Freeman's sharp focus and improved grasp of the playbook.

While Michael Vick was the biggest disappointment among fantasy quarterbacks, Freeman was probably the most disappointing quarterback in actual football terms, as his 25-TD, six-INT season from 2010 gave way to a 16-TD, 22-INT performance. The touchdown decrease is particularly concerning, because he threw 77 more passes than he did in 2010. Still, Freeman’s regression was likely just the result of overexposure. He’s probably better as a ball-control (29.6 passes per game in 2010) quarterback than a pass-happy one (36.7 passes per game in 2011.) The arrival of throwback head coach Greg Schiano will ensure a shift back to the run-heavy approach in which Freeman flourished in 2010. It certainly helps that the Buccaneers added two top talents on offense to help Freeman – wide receiver Vincent Jackson will easily be the best with whom Freeman has played, while the same distinction will likely be earned at running back by first-round pick Doug Martin. Freeman’s aggregate production could suffer due to this shift in offensive philosophy, but his efficiency as a passer should improve dramatically in 2012.

Freeman was one of the league’s most pleasant surprises last year, changing from a mistake-prone rookie to a calm and efficient winner overnight from 2009 to 2010. He lowered his interception rate from 6.2 to 1.3 in that span while raising his touchdown percentage from 3.4 to 5.3. The result was 25 passing touchdowns to just six interceptions—impressive figures for a quarterback of any age, not to mention a 22-year-old in just his second season. His 364 yards on the ground were a nice bonus for his fantasy owners, as well. Impressive as those accomplishments are, Freeman’s fantasy potential seems a bit limited by Tampa’s run-first mentality – the team ranked 23rd with an average of 30.9 pass attempts per game in 2010. And while rookie wideout Mike Williams has the look of a potential star, Freeman’s probable second and third targets (tight end Kellen Winslow and receiver Arrelious Benn) both have knee-injury concerns. It seems like Freeman’s best days remain ahead of him, but he looks like a low-risk, low-reward fantasy option for the short term.

Freeman enters the season as Tampa Bay's starter at quarterback. He had three TDs and 13 picks in his last five games of 2009. In order to improve in 2010, his main hope at the skill positions are rookie wide receivers, and we know what happens to QBs who count on them nine times out of 10. Tight end Kellen Winslow is easily the team's best target but comes with his share of injury risk. The Bucs are in no man's land offensively. No line, no personality and no other weapons of note. Freeman does have some scrambling and running ability but in 10 games never broke 36 yards and did not score a rushing touchdown. Sure, the Bucs are saying nice things about him. What are they going say? He's a 17th overall pick, which requires no real NFL money to sign, so the commitment will be fleeting unless Freeman really steps up fast.

The Bucs, who moved up a couple of slots to get Freeman, have plenty of warm bodies on their QB depth chart, led by Byron Leftwich and Luke McCown. But in Freeman they have a player with the physical ability to develop into a top-notch NFL signal-caller. He's a big guy with a good arm in the Joe Flacco or JaMarcus Russell mold, but don't expect him to be rushed into a starting assignment, as he's still raw. The Bucs have more depth at QB than the 2008 Ravens - who were forced to turn to Flacco when injuries hit - so Tampa can afford to be patient.