The Saints really missed Malcolm Jenkins at safety. To be honest, I had no idea who Jenkins was before seeing Roman Harper prove his vast importance on what seemed like every other play. Typically safety isn't considered an important position - you almost never see one drafted among the top-five players, and defensive linemen are typically paid a lot more. But when you consider the Steelers with and without Troy Polamalu or what happened to the Giants pass defense in 2009 when they lost Kenny Phillips, it obviously makes a big difference. Julius Jones and Reggie Bush both made key errors - Bush on a dropped pass that likely cost the Saints a touchdown on the opening drive and Jones with a fumble and a failure to get a yard on fourth and short after bumping into one of his blockers and losing his balance - ones I wouldn't expect Pierre Thomas to make. Marshawn Lynch has always been a tough runner, and few will forget it after his powerful 67-yard tackle-breaking exhibition to seal the game. But Lynch is still a plodder compared the the quicker and more nimble Justin Forsett, whom the Seahawks would be wise to get more than the meager four carries he saw last week. Lynch actually reminds me of his Buffalo predecessor Willis McGahee is many respects with Forsett being an underused poor man's Ray Rice. Matt Hasselbeck played well, but for some reason Gregg Williams didn't seem to bring his customary heat, something that's hard to understand given the ease with which Seattle moved the ball. Rex Ryan outcoached Jim Caldwell/Peyton Manning. For starters, Caldwell for God knows what reason challenged Santonio Holmes' non-touching of the punt return well after everyone at home knew beyond any doubt Holmes did not touch the ball. It's mind-boggling the Indy organization couldn't tell him to hold the flag. Second, while the Jets were dropping into coverage and letting the Colts run - and Indy capitalized on that by running for a couple first downs on third and long in their own end - it was beyond defeatist for Indy to run on 3rd and 7 inside the 15 down 4 with 5 minutes left UNLESS they were committed to going on 4th down. I get that it's hard to complete a pass against the Jets' dime defense, but you have to at least TRY to get the first down. You're down 4, so you cannot settle for the FG unless you get sacked and the first down is hopeless. As for the odds of them getting another first down by running, they were far slimmer on such a short field where the safeties are much closer to the line of scrimmage. There's taking what the defense gives you, and there's being baited into a stupid decision. This was the latter, and it's striking that one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time decided to put his team's fate in the hands of Dom Rhodes rather than his own in that situation.
As it turns out, Indy got the FG, gave the ball back to the Jets (who had dominated time of possession with long drives in the second half), and were lucky to get another chance when Holmes dropped an easy first down. Otherwise, the game might have ended on that drive, and the post-game press conference would be all about kicking a FG down four and running it on third down.
Third, Ryan said he'd blitz Manning but instead wisely dropped players back into coverage and allowed the Colts to run as much as they liked.
Fourth, Ryan had the Jets come out running and playing power football in the second half against a smallish run defense, an adjustment that turned that game around on that side of the ball.
Fifth, Caldwell called a timeout in order to preserve time for Peyton Manning and/or entice the Jets to take a risk to improve field possession. While it's possible Sanchez could have taken a sack, fumbled a snap or thrown a pick, those occurrences were remote given that Sanchez was only going to make a safe attempt and would be looking to get rid of the ball at even the slightest hint of pressure. The downside, of course, was that Sanchez would complete the pass and get Nick Folk an 80 percent kick rather than a 40-50 percent one. Which is of course what happened.
Guarded by Darrelle Revis, Reggie Wayne got one target all game and was not happy about it. Peyton Manning is now 9-10 career in the postseason. Can one argue that he beats up on the bad teams better than anyone, but struggles as the competition gets better? His performance against the historically good Jets pass defense last year is a good counterpoint to that, but maybe Ryan played right into his hands by overblitzing. Mark Sanchez played poorly with 6.1 YPA and a bad pick against a weaker-than-usual Indy secondary. He'll have to play a lot better for the Jets to have a chance in New England. The Ravens had been one of the top teams in the league all year, beating the Steelers, Jets and Saints and barely losing to the Pats in New England due to some cheap calls and Falcons in Atlanta due in part to a missed call on Roddy White's push-off. The Chiefs had beaten a bunch of nobodies. The Ravens defense is arguably the best in the NFL. The Packers, Steelers, Bears and maybe the Jets also have an argument, but Baltimore is undoubtedly in that tier. When healthy Todd Heap has been on of the better pass-catching tight ends in the league for the last eight years, and he's healthy now. Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe could not have come up smaller in the team's biggest game in several years. One wonders how much confidence the team can have heading into 2011 without significant changes. Michael Vick played a fantastic game except for that final underthrown ball that was picked off - 8.1 YPA despite several drops on perfectly thrown balls, another 33 yards rushing and a rushing TD against one of the league's top defenses. On the last play to DeSean Jackson, I seriously thought he was gone, and probably would have been had Desmond Bishop not caught his ankle as he blazed by. David Akers' missed FGs loom large, but they're offset by James Jones' egregious drop at the end of the first half. James Starks is this year's Shonn Greene - the other back we suspected was more talented, but hardly played during the regular season and then broke out in the playoffs. Andy Reid's calling a timeout down 11 with less than five minutes left to think about whether to go for the touchdown on 4th down from the half-yard line was terrible. Not only because he burned a timeout that would have been valuable, but also because it's embarrassing that he even had to think about it. Yes, you need to get the FG eventually, too - but which one's easier to get? And when are you going to have a better chance at the TD? That Troy Aikman predictably argued to kick the FG was neither outrageous, nor funny. It was sad.
